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GMO's 7-year asset allocation model for U.S. stocks (VTI) is now predicting negative returns,...

GMO's 7-year asset allocation model for U.S. stocks (VTI) is now predicting negative returns, says James Montier, presenting at the London Value Conference, and telling the audience GMO is now 50% in cash. Liking Europe (VGK, EZU, FEZ) a year ago, the big run has GMO less excited now. The best value could be emerging markets (EEM, DEM, VWO), but China's property bubble has GMO allocating less to EM than its models suggest.
Comments (14)
  • poclerk
    , contributor
    Comments (403) | Send Message
    Who or What is GMO.?
    14 May 2013, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • Teutonic Knight
    , contributor
    Comments (2055) | Send Message
    GMO = Government Monetary Office? My guess.
    14 May 2013, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • tom_t
    , contributor
    Comments (272) | Send Message
    Investment firm, as in Jeremy Grantham (the 'G' in 'GMO'.)
    14 May 2013, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • jwo5173
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
    Grantham Mayo Otterloo. Boston based investment firm. Very well respected in the industry. Has made some very accurate predictions in the past
    14 May 2013, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • tom_t
    , contributor
    Comments (272) | Send Message
    And some very bad ones.
    14 May 2013, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4188) | Send Message
    Their commentary is on my self-assigned mandatory reading list:

    14 May 2013, 10:26 AM Reply Like
    , contributor
    Comments (1960) | Send Message
    thanks for the link Chris
    14 May 2013, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9621) | Send Message
    Well we can say with high certainty we will have a bear market sometime in those years and likely a recession....
    14 May 2013, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4982) | Send Message
    Some of the best can't predict out 6 mo-1Yr, give me a break with a 7 yr outlook, Add an "a" to the end of that for "absurd".
    14 May 2013, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • vgatahvi
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
    What did they say 7 years ago?
    14 May 2013, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • Stewpified
    , contributor
    Comments (116) | Send Message
    Malthus' population theories with a global warming overlay? Grantham is nothing more than a windbag leftist. Mandatory reading? I just read his 1Q13 piece and found ZERO actionable thoughts.
    14 May 2013, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • Whitehawk
    , contributor
    Comments (3129) | Send Message
    Agreed. He does now have something in common with Bloomberg New Energy Finance, which also staged a media blitz a few weekends ago on similar threads.
    14 May 2013, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • 7of9
    , contributor
    Comments (321) | Send Message
    Everyone makes predictions. If one of them happen to be lucky with their call, they become the next media guru for calling future market direction. In next 10 years we will have a new market high, a recession, a panic, and a new bear market. There I've made my call. Did I leave anything out?
    14 May 2013, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • ValueHendx
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
    Yes, Europe defaulting ..!
    15 May 2013, 08:05 AM Reply Like
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