Blackberry (BBRY) is downgraded to Hold by Bernstein's Pierre Ferragu, who lowers his price...


Blackberry (BBRY) is downgraded to Hold by Bernstein's Pierre Ferragu, who lowers his price target to $15 from $22. "We dislike the risk/reward of our BB10 trade," he writes. "With Blackberry Live behind us, we see few additional positive catalysts coming through in the next 6 months." Shares -2.3% premarket.

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Comments (52)
  • Antony Luckshman
    , contributor
    Comments (67) | Send Message
     
    "We see few additional catalysts coming through in the next 6 months"
    ????

     

    Obviously he is blind. Q1 Earnings June 28th. Mother of all catalysts.
    15 May 2013, 08:10 AM Reply Like
  • Michael Bryant
    , contributor
    Comments (6941) | Send Message
     
    Just hold. If you dance with "analysts" forecasts, you will lose money. Might as well just watch Cramer.
    16 May 2013, 12:04 AM Reply Like
  • Transcend Asset
    , contributor
    Comments (1622) | Send Message
     
    Cramer is loud and obnoxious... -_-
    16 May 2013, 12:21 AM Reply Like
  • mman
    , contributor
    Comments (53) | Send Message
     
    Also Q10 US release, BES 10.1 adoption, DoD, Q5
    15 May 2013, 08:17 AM Reply Like
  • DIgitalMediaView
    , contributor
    Comments (631) | Send Message
     
    Bernstein's Ferragu, same guy who cut price target on Nokia to $1.56 last July just before their stock rallied. Buy sign? http://bit.ly/13x7T26
    15 May 2013, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • tomskope
    , contributor
    Comments (29) | Send Message
     
    Any thoughts from intelligent longs about whether shorts could pull another bear raid when earnings are announced?
    15 May 2013, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • Transcend Asset
    , contributor
    Comments (1622) | Send Message
     
    Sure! They'll say that the earnings is a one time thing, and the future is uncertain once the initial pent up demand for keyboard phones from BlackBerry freaks are over. I will sell into earnings, trade like crazy, then go to the sidelines. Even though I'm a long, you just have to play the game the bear way/ understand bears or you will be sitting with stuck money in the red.
    15 May 2013, 08:47 AM Reply Like
  • Mondego
    , contributor
    Comments (421) | Send Message
     
    There will definitely be a run-up to earnings. Sell your options at the last minute, the IV will get wiped out the Day After (pun intended). They need to surprise by 200%+...they surprised by 178% last time and it didn't seem to matter. I bought calls today on this pullback. I'm praying Heins guides early and we longs wake up to Christmas morning 6 months early.
    (if the street is thinking .60 then lets hope for 2.40)
    Just my 2 cents.
    15 May 2013, 08:45 PM Reply Like
  • logicalman
    , contributor
    Comments (757) | Send Message
     
    DigitalMediaView, ABSOLUTELY!!!
    15 May 2013, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • riyajain2727@gmail.com
    , contributor
    Comments (120) | Send Message
     
    He is backward looking.. the most important thing is that BlackBerry 10 is brand new OS designed ground up for mobile while ios is 5 years old
    15 May 2013, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • timnpawc
    , contributor
    Comments (562) | Send Message
     
    Wow,
    No positive catalysts....
    Bear or short? Or Both?
    6 months? November?
    Two quarters?
    Q1 will exceed expectations in profitability as well as sales.
    DoD purchase of Z10/Q10 devices upgrading some of 475k units
    Possible win in June for DoD MdM.
    Wins in enterprise
    Wins in other government / military establishments
    Q1/Q2 releases of MDM advancements as per BlackBerry Live targets
    Device #4 and #5 released before November.

     

    Another orchestrated bear run. Downgrade on Q5, BES10.1 or MdM. All great news. Articles link BlackBerry going to lock down users on corporate networks when that was the norm for 15 years and now BlackBerry has developed Balance which is exactly the opposite.
    15 May 2013, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • alext1379
    , contributor
    Comments (811) | Send Message
     
    Aside from never having heard of these guys before, I can't take this report seriously. They announced the Q5 to take and hold market share in emerging markets and they claim there is no catalyst?

     

    Depending on the magnitude of stop-losses being triggered, it may be another good day to pick up shares on the cheap. I'm actually starting to look forward to BB events because you can pretty accurately predict how the stock price will tank because some nobody says something negative and then shares recover within a week or two.
    15 May 2013, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • logicalman
    , contributor
    Comments (757) | Send Message
     
    alext1379, you've got that right. Now get out there and buy more. I am not going to say it can't go a bit lower, but the way I see it anything under 16. is a BUY!!!
    15 May 2013, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • Michael Shirley
    , contributor
    Comments (24) | Send Message
     
    Finally I agree. I dislike like this trade as well. I just hope my z10 holds up cause I have lost enough money to the shorts. I should have known better to go against the real money buying in at 16. What a idiot I am come expiration time once again.
    15 May 2013, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • alext1379
    , contributor
    Comments (811) | Send Message
     
    Why do you consider buying in at $16 a bad trade? On the TSX, it was above $16 on Monday before the shorts triggered auto trades. From experience, hold it atleast a week and you'll be fine, at worst you'll break even. While you're in the red, write some calls at $17 for June 18th, prices should be up again since BB's next quarterly would be just around the corner. Either you make up "losses" with the premium or someone executes and you make a profit.

     

    I find the average daily spread of high and low on BB is about 75 cents.

     

    Lastly, you can hold until the end of the year when 2 consecutive positive quarters will pretty much bury all the shorts.

     

    I'll add that it's only a profit/loss when you execute a sell, until then, its just unrealized paper profit/loss.
    15 May 2013, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • stockaudit
    , contributor
    Comments (60) | Send Message
     
    "Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department Confirms BlackBerry 10, BlackBerry Enterprise Service 10 Deployment"
    5/15/2013 8:00:23 AM

     

    http://yhoo.it/11EiXfO

     

    Guess he has not seen this news! DoD next!
    15 May 2013, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • RodLowe
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    The elliott wave count has BBRY moving to US$30 in the next 6 months.....in a wave 3 move - I think the market is totally underestimating the Q5 and Q10 and Z!0 sales over the enjxt 6 months .....we shall see if the EW count is right and if the 33% shre float shorts have to scramble to cover like Netlix shorts did ?
    15 May 2013, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • jdaxakos
    , contributor
    Comments (7) | Send Message
     
    The volatility of the stock follows the volatility of the analysts price targets: 30% down with no fresh numbers yet...
    15 May 2013, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • Kurt Windibank
    , contributor
    Comments (1304) | Send Message
     
    Can't take him seriously when he states to positive catalysts:

     

    .licensing deals

     

    .bes10 corporate announcement

     

    .June ER

     

    .BBM cross platform launch...

     

    What happens when 200 million BBM downloads happen in a matter of weeks this summer?
    15 May 2013, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • Smilinjax
    , contributor
    Comments (175) | Send Message
     
    it was downgraded to sector perform from outperform that's it
    where did you get this hold information??
    15 May 2013, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • timnpawc
    , contributor
    Comments (562) | Send Message
     
    Catalyst = The Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department, the largest sheriff's department in the nation, has tested the advanced mobile computing and communication features of BlackBerry 10 and is now deploying BlackBerry Enterprise Service 10. "Technology is moving fast, and the BlackBerry 10 platform is a viable secure platform that can help us keep up," said Commander Scott Edson of the Technical Services Division. "I have personally tested devices on many smartphone operating systems and I think the BlackBerry 10 platform is a homerun. It's very secure right out of the box, a great benefit to government and business, and is designed to make your various communication methods more efficient."
    15 May 2013, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • WATERLOO JOE
    , contributor
    Comments (374) | Send Message
     
    Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department
    Overview Services Employee Insights

     

    With over 18,000 employees, the Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department is the largest sheriff's department in the world and the second largest law enforcement agency in the Country.
    15 May 2013, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • Transcend Asset
    , contributor
    Comments (1622) | Send Message
     
    Just have to wait till WSJ, Globe and Mail, and Yahoo picks up the news. They are typically about 15 mins to 3 hours slower than us who are actively monitoring.
    15 May 2013, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • wifturbo
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    wth is he doing playing around with a huge gap down target price from $22 to $15 at this moment. Conning pple? Why employ tis crook analyst?
    15 May 2013, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • Smilinjax
    , contributor
    Comments (175) | Send Message
     
    EPS drives share price black berry won't lose money in a quarter anytime soon

     

    they hav 11000 employees doing 10 billion in sales that is a million per employee or better, theya re very nimble compared to appsung giants
    15 May 2013, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • Ziffster
    , contributor
    Comments (385) | Send Message
     
    I have to admit that the conference so far has been loaded with 'risky' moves by BBRY justifying why analysts may downgrade in the short term. With regards to 'few upcoming catalysts' we need to consider what window the analyst may be considering since he is correct regarding the next month.

     

    Q10 Release - Pushed from May (i.e. one to two weeks) to June (i.e. three to four weeks)

     

    BES 10.1 DoD Adoption - Last word I saw was to expect announcement in mid June at the earliest

     

    Q1 Earnings - June 28th

     

    Q5 - Launch in July (plus see discussion below)

     

    So, from now until Mid June nothing much to drive the stock up so as an Analyst I can understand shifting from $22 short term to $15 (i.e. nothing to drive it up in the next two or three weeks) and as $15 is current market price that would also equate to a hold rating.
    15 May 2013, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • alext1379
    , contributor
    Comments (811) | Send Message
     
    But he says few catalysts in the next 6 months. Q10 US launch next month and Q5 launch in July are far short of 6 months. Plus we finally get a full quarter with BB10.
    15 May 2013, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3130) | Send Message
     
    I find myself in agreement with your assessment. Considering product launch delays, and few new product announcements expected, then much will fall on sales figures. Unfortunately with products launching late each of the next two quarters, we will not see much of a trend emerging. I stated a while ago several times that I did not expect much until September, and this view seems to match.

     

    Meanwhile I continue to hold shares. I'm not sure I would buy more shares, but if any macro market activity drives share prices under 10.00, then I would be tempted. So for now I still think Q2 2014 will be the target time for solid performance from BBRY.
    16 May 2013, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • Greg Penny
    , contributor
    Comments (223) | Send Message
     
    Yes LA County Sheriff is big news! http://bit.ly/12uAVxX
    15 May 2013, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • logicalman
    , contributor
    Comments (757) | Send Message
     
    Buying BBRY right now is like buying a WINNING lottery ticket. The only unknown is WHEN you will pick up your $$$. If you can wait for a reasonable time, you won't be disappointed!!!
    15 May 2013, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • Crazy Mazy
    , contributor
    Comments (432) | Send Message
     
    Ha hahahahahaha where has this person been hiding the last three days! Enterprise is gaining traction, new device announced to be launched soon, Q10 to be launched in the US soon, BBM to become cross platform, New 10.1 software update to fix all exiting bugs, and quarterly earnings to be announced soon, and positive reviews about the sales for Z10, and Q10. So what other positive catalysts to you need to see? Guess they have to create negative sentiment now to drive the stock down before the quarterly report which is going to be brutal for the shorts.
    15 May 2013, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • Chris Lau
    , contributor
    Comments (3986) | Send Message
     
    Translation: Our clients are short, so we'll downgrade it to give ourselves an edge.

     

    I just got BB10, and set up the Enterprise Server 10. It makes competitors look very obsolete, even though the competition is not Android/Apple (which owns nearly 90% of the market).

     

    Will write-up an in-depth article on this experience and post it shortly.
    15 May 2013, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • slcUTAH
    , contributor
    Comments (542) | Send Message
     
    YYYAAAAAWWWWNNNNN.

     

    -Cheers!
    15 May 2013, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • Manxbuilder
    , contributor
    Comments (240) | Send Message
     
    BBRY is the hands down winner for most manipulated stock for 2013. Analysts and short hedge funds have been relentless with the attacks and yet the stock hangs in there. If this was AAPL they would be crying the blues.
    15 May 2013, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • Michael Shirley
    , contributor
    Comments (24) | Send Message
     
    Thanks alext1379. Getting a little emotional and impatient which is not good from an investment prospective. You can be my head doctor any day!
    15 May 2013, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • ray444
    , contributor
    Comments (62) | Send Message
     
    Do these "shorts" know something about BB that the "longs" don't?
    If I were a short holder i would pay out now. I can't see the stock below $14 unless the 2nd Quarter sales report is uninspiring.
    16 May 2013, 08:41 PM Reply Like
  • KIA Investment Research
    , contributor
    Comments (13174) | Send Message
     
    Ray, I think we know the same things, but yet have a vastly different perspective.
    For instance, the Bentley demo.

     

    Now I think this excited the BB longs, it's what they hoped would come to pass "BB10 powering an infotainment system!"

     

    I saw it much differently: I saw that Bentley isn't installing these, and didn't even install this demo unit. It was the QNX engineering team that did it. They cut open the dash and stuffed the guts of a blackberry in there. It was nothing but smoke and mirrors. It was a blackberry wired to a large screen.
    There is no promise or even a hint that anyone is going to actually do this in production.

     

    So this is how I think the shorts differ from the longs.
    Shorts are very skeptical and don't share the hopefulness that longs do. We want to see proof. We want to see results. We don't want vision-speak from a guy that's not proven himself.
    17 May 2013, 12:14 AM Reply Like
  • timnpawc
    , contributor
    Comments (562) | Send Message
     
    Knowitall,

     

    It is very easy to say BlackBerry grabbed a Bentley and customized it because that is exactly what they did and they said same at Live!!! No news there. If you had of done a little research like I did to see where they were really at, you would have found...

     

    “For almost a year, automotive companies in the U.S., Germany, Japan, and China have been putting the QNX CAR application platform 2.0 through its paces. We’re thrilled to see the many next-generation designs that customers already started developing on the platform during the early access program,” said Andy Gryc. CES2013.

     

    BMW has the system fully released. Apple fan boys are saying how cool the Apple / BMW partnership is.... it is QNX 2.0!!! with Android, Apple, BlackBerry and Windows integration!!!
    17 May 2013, 06:53 AM Reply Like
  • KIA Investment Research
    , contributor
    Comments (13174) | Send Message
     
    timnpawc,

     

    we all know QNX is powering all sorts of stuff .. but it's a low margin business, can't leverage the BB ecosystem, and wasn't BlackBerry's doing (pride.)

     

    Like I said, the Bentley demo was smoke and mirrors.

     

    Get back to me when Bentley (or any car manufacturer) announces they are putting BB10 into their car's infotainment system, that will be big.
    17 May 2013, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • timnpawc
    , contributor
    Comments (562) | Send Message
     
    Did you listen to Live key note?
    Did you you read the QNX 2.0 marketing stuff?
    It is part of the BlackBerry ecosystem strategy.
    Within the next 9 months, you will have integration between BB10.X and QNX 2.X.

     

    Big is coming....
    18 May 2013, 10:24 PM Reply Like
  • Transcend Asset
    , contributor
    Comments (1622) | Send Message
     
    As I see it, the lack of marketing of QNX 2 hurts shareholders. We know of it, but because it doesn't get enough air time, Apple gets all the credit. And BlackBerry gets all the DOWNGRADES =(
    24 May 2013, 01:31 AM Reply Like
  • KIA Investment Research
    , contributor
    Comments (13174) | Send Message
     
    @timnpawc,

     

    Yes, I watched the Bentley portion of the presentation and a bit more.

     

    "Within the next 9 months, you will have integration between BB10.X and QNX 2.X. "

     

    As we've talked about before, nobody doubts this. There's no reason to believe that Blackberry won't implement the *same* bluetooth interfaces that other phones do to do things like stream music to the car's speakers. But your suggestion that there is or will be some special link between BB10's QNX to the QNX in the car (or other device) is wholly unfounded. If you know differently, then please link.

     

    Yes, I know this is Mr. Heins vision, but it ends there.
    19 May 2013, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3130) | Send Message
     
    The more affordable Acura, Honda, GM, Hyundai and Chrysler systems will bring in more revenues than a high end Bentley system, though showcasing in a Bentley or Porsche is more impressive.

     

    http://bit.ly/ySdz0U

     

    There are already many installed QNX systems, though they lack BlackBerry branding. I doubt the majority of people using these installed systems realize BlackBerry owns QNX, or even that the underlying system is QNX. BlackBerry still has work to do to leverage this asset.
    20 May 2013, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • KIA Investment Research
    , contributor
    Comments (13174) | Send Message
     
    non-sequitur Herr.
    That statement would only be valid if BB10 was running on Bentley's which it not.

     

    I repeat BB10 running on the Bentley was shameful hockum.

     

    Now, if BB10 were running on cars, it would be a huge margin opportunity, and app opportunity, basically a total coup for BlackBerry, but it's simply not happening.

     

    QNX is not BB10.
    20 May 2013, 06:57 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3130) | Send Message
     
    I disagree with your assessment of my statement, since it is not illogical. Perhaps you don't understand my statement of "BlackBerry still has work to do to leverage this asset." You may also not understand why prototypes are shared in public. There is no revenue today from what was shown in that Bentley, but why would you not want to see BlackBerry put more work into that?

     

    I'm not expecting that to happen soon. My best guess is late 2014 or even into 2015 before tighter integration occurs between QNX automotive systems and BlackBerry smartphones. I disagree with tim's stated time frame of "nine months". Automotive product cycles can take a long time before technology changes appear.

     

    If we look at various automobiles that include an iPod dock, we can see that sales barely changed due to that implementation. People tend to keep their cars far longer than they keep the average mobile phone. The value of showing that Bentley system now is that it carries an association with high end luxury products. There is marketing value now to show that. BlackBerry bought QNX from Harman International. All it would take to have the BlackBerry brand and logo appear on QNX automotive systems, would be updated agreements with those automotive companies in that link I provided. I don't see any reason why that would be bad.
    20 May 2013, 08:05 PM Reply Like
  • KIA Investment Research
    , contributor
    Comments (13174) | Send Message
     
    I understand more than you think ;)

     

    And I wouldn't call that a prototype; it was a blackberry pipe dream that nobody shares but BlackBerry and her investors.

     

    Find me an auto manufacturer interested in BB10 please.

     

    " but why would you not want to see BlackBerry put more work into that?"

     

    I would! I just wouldn't invest in it since BlackBerry and Thorsten Heins have a zero track record here. The only reason they are in autos now is because they bought QNX.

     

    " tighter integration occurs between QNX automotive systems and BlackBerry smartphones"

     

    As I've mentioned before, this will never happen.
    Cars publish a Bluetooth interface that ALL device manufactures may program too. Blackberry will never have an advantage here just because their device coincidentally runs QNX.

     

    "If we look at various automobiles that include an iPod dock, we can see that sales barely changed due to that implementation."

     

    Which is broken now with the iPhone 5's changed connector.

     

    "The value of showing that Bentley system now is that it carries an association with high end luxury products." - hockum.

     

    "There is marketing value now to show that."

     

    Yes there is, to lure investors into buying/believing in the stock.
    But the reality is that 90% of BB10 is unusable while your driving.
    Are you going to have access to critical automobile systems? Are you going to allow 3rd parties to write apps?

     

    You know what would have been both useful and believable? A simple Bluetooth or USB connection that simply shared the BlackBerry's screen and speaker with the Bentley.
    20 May 2013, 08:26 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3130) | Send Message
     
    The only reason some people comment on BlackBerry when they do not hold shares is:

     

    1. they have a short position
    2. they have a friend with a short position
    3. they have a position in AAPL and want to push down interest in any potential competitor, in the false belief that doing so will elevate their position
    4. they are a troll

     

    So which one are you? My guess is that you would enjoy seeing BBRY fail, though perhaps you might share why you feel that way?
    20 May 2013, 09:28 PM Reply Like
  • KIA Investment Research
    , contributor
    Comments (13174) | Send Message
     
    I guess calling me a troll is easier than answering the questions.
    20 May 2013, 10:27 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3130) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for answering my question. Congratulations on choosing number 4. ;)

     

    Those did not appear to be questions for which you wanted answers, but here goes:

     

    "Are you going to have access to critical automobile systems?"

     

    I'll have to guess a bit on the "critical" part of that, but I doubt any company would allow you to steer, brake, or accelerate using your smartphone.

     

    "Are you going to allow 3rd parties to write apps?"

     

    QNX does have a developer kit specifically to allow "apps" to be created for in car displays. You can find that information when you look through their website.

     

    "You know what would have been both useful and believable?"

     

    I'll take another guess here that you think the video was faked. In other words, the touch controls really did not control heating or cooling systems, nor were they able to select music. I suppose you think the video phone call was faked too. If you could prove those things were faked on that Bentley demonstration, then you should contact the SEC and whatever the market oversight entity is in Canada.
    20 May 2013, 10:55 PM Reply Like
  • KIA Investment Research
    , contributor
    Comments (13174) | Send Message
     
    Herr, the demo was about BB10 not QNX, but I'm tired of making and remaking that point.

     

    I'll keep an eye out for that BB10 powered auto. Sounds like a real sweet investment opportunity.
    21 May 2013, 12:41 AM Reply Like
  • Transcend Asset
    , contributor
    Comments (1622) | Send Message
     
    Yada yada, lighten up =D

     

    In the end, we're just trying to have BlackBerry brand everything BlackBerry, no? QNX's problem is most people do not know it's owned by BlackBerry. BB10's problem is the code is not the same as QNX. And we're getting technical *sigh*

     

    My gripe is that BlackBerry is no good at telling the Americans they've got QNX under their hood. Maybe that will stop the shorting.

     

    Knowitall is a Nokia fan. And I'm a Nokia and BlackBerry shareholder... used to be a fan of both. Kinda zoned out on both of them... both stocks are out of life support/ out of the emergency room but still in critical condition LOL. Peace to all!
    24 May 2013, 01:44 AM Reply Like
  • KIA Investment Research
    , contributor
    Comments (13174) | Send Message
     
    Thanks TA, have a great Memorial Day weekend :)
    24 May 2013, 02:17 AM Reply Like
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