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Online sales jumped 24.3% this Black Friday. Department stores led the way with a 59% jump in...

Online sales jumped 24.3% this Black Friday. Department stores led the way with a 59% jump in online sales. Stronger than expected demand suggests there may be a disconnect between what consumers tell pollsters and how they actually spend.
Comments (57)
  • David Urban
    , contributor
    Comments (1036) | Send Message
     
    I would say that what we are really seeing is December sales being pulled forward into November.
    26 Nov 2011, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12704) | Send Message
     
    Baloney.

     

    Look at same-store sales since 2009. Growing every month, but June 2010.

     

    People bitch and moan constantly, especially if asked to render an opinion. Heck, the pollsters probably had to track them down in a mall, somewhere.
    26 Nov 2011, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • Stone Fox Capital
    , contributor
    Comments (5756) | Send Message
     
    Possibly some, but the numbers continue to tell us that consumers have more to spend than polls. They might be gloomy but that doesn't stop them from spending.
    26 Nov 2011, 07:28 PM Reply Like
  • HPBunker
    , contributor
    Comments (219) | Send Message
     
    Seems at least as likely as the headline explanation...
    26 Nov 2011, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • Jackson999
    , contributor
    Comments (468) | Send Message
     
    So they decided not to wait for "Cyber Monday"?
    26 Nov 2011, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • megaballs
    , contributor
    Comments (45) | Send Message
     
    Wait...only gloom and doom on SA please...the comfortable, end of world kind preferably
    26 Nov 2011, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • OptionManiac
    , contributor
    Comments (3304) | Send Message
     
    Really, no news is good news on this site. By the way, shopping in real store is up 8% this black Friday, and I haven't bought a thing yet.
    26 Nov 2011, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • Econdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (2944) | Send Message
     
    me neither and I am one of the evil 1% crew - wait till my wife gets started

     

    actually up 7% yoy not bad for a recession on the brink of great depression 2

     

    I am sure it is just a prelude to disaster - pulling forward December and all on borrowed money etc. etc. etc.

     

    the end is nigh - run for your lives - save yourselves

     

    E
    26 Nov 2011, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • coddy0
    , contributor
    Comments (1182) | Send Message
     
    Econdoc
    I am sure it is just a prelude to disaster - pulling forward December and all on borrowed money etc. etc. etc.
    ======================...
    absolutely
    1 pulling forward December
    2. extended store hours
    3. inflation
    ----------------------...
    I just got offer from my City credit card
    0% interest till 2013
    0 transaction fees

     

    I have not seen this kind of offers since 2008
    There we are going again
    26 Nov 2011, 06:35 PM Reply Like
  • Econdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (2944) | Send Message
     
    Why do you need a credit card anyway?

     

    Surely you have laid in a good supply of canned and dried foods in the cellar - got plenty of guns and ammo and don't forget the gold - sure you got a stash of that -

     

    Yep. Why do you need a credit card anyway? You are ready for the apocalypse - that is sure to come.

     

    Run for your lives - Panic - Save yourselves

     

    E
    26 Nov 2011, 06:42 PM Reply Like
  • coddy0
    , contributor
    Comments (1182) | Send Message
     
    Econdoc (E for excellence)
    to Coddy0 => Why do you need a credit card anyway?
    Good question
    I have all the supply I need plus collection of credit cards I am not using already
    ======================...
    Real Question1
    Why would they send out credit cards with 0 interest and 0 transaction fee
    How are they planning to compensate themselves for credit cards natural delinquency losses

     

    Real Question2
    Are these 0-0 cards are partially to blame for current Y over Y retail grows
    26 Nov 2011, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12704) | Send Message
     
    Econ:

     

    Credit cards are perfectly logical for those believing the world's ending. According to their reasoning, they won't have to pay back a dime.
    26 Nov 2011, 07:27 PM Reply Like
  • Conventional Wisdumb
    , contributor
    Comments (1802) | Send Message
     
    Mega,

     

    While this is an accurate sentiment of the world view on this site, I am not sure that means it is incorrect.

     

    The broader markets in the form of the S&P are down more than 200 points from their April high so the market is telling you something. World markets have also cratered. Assuming markets are forward indicators then well just maybe Mr. Market knows something you don't.

     

    Why buy Christmas presents when you can buy stocks?

     

    Seems to me if you believe that things are much better than they appear than this is the time to buy or go allin on the market. Show your conviction.

     

    You should be excited by how stupid the pessimists are because their gloom and doom just lowers your average cost.

     

    Is it pessimistic to want to buy stocks when they have cratered or is it being a smart shopper?

     

    Even a dummy like me can make money when everything is on a fire sale.

     

    Good luck.
    27 Nov 2011, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • fxmaven
    , contributor
    Comments (1455) | Send Message
     
    USA doing what it does best - subsidizing spending with 2 years free credit from Shittygroup with printed money and deficits.

     

    I'm just waiting until the corporate cash flow dries up in Jan. for better deals. Then default again sticking US taxpayers with the losses.

     

    This is fun.
    27 Nov 2011, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • re1933
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    How much black friday buying was with a CREDIT CARD?
    27 Nov 2011, 10:55 PM Reply Like
  • moreofthesame
    , contributor
    Comments (743) | Send Message
     
    How do they know the total sales within a few hours after the fact??
    26 Nov 2011, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3573) | Send Message
     
    Computers are amazing machines.
    26 Nov 2011, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • Ricard
    , contributor
    Comments (3829) | Send Message
     
    This headline is misleading. Just because *online* sales jumped doesn't mean *retail* sales jumped. It could very well be that cost-conscious consumers are taking advantage of price comparisons online and shunning retail outlets. This could be an acceleration of that trend.

     

    We may very well find out in the coming weeks that this season was particularly weak overall, with a strong jump in bargain hunting via web-shopping.
    26 Nov 2011, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • 440978
    , contributor
    Comments (159) | Send Message
     
    Steep discounts increase sales. This alone will not save the American economy. The overall outlook of macroeconomic realities remains unchanged and the stock market will soon reflect that reality. Then sales will surely contract going forward as many people base their discretionary spending according to the value of their portfolios.
    26 Nov 2011, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • SA reader
    , contributor
    Comments (176) | Send Message
     
    I know I choose how many burgers I get a McDonalds based on what the stock market did that day! Then I go to Target and buy some underwear. If my portfolio was up 1-3% I buy 3 pair, if it's down I buy 1 pair. If it's up more than 3% I buy a shirt. A SHIRT!

     

    What are you smoking?
    26 Nov 2011, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • edsanville
    , contributor
    Comments (73) | Send Message
     
    I only pay my rent if my portfolio is up at least 10% YOY.
    26 Nov 2011, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • 440978
    , contributor
    Comments (159) | Send Message
     
    Is rent considered discretionary?
    26 Nov 2011, 07:13 PM Reply Like
  • Diplomacy
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Only if you are an "evil" mortgage company. That is still renting, isn't it?
    27 Nov 2011, 04:41 AM Reply Like
  • OptionManiac
    , contributor
    Comments (3304) | Send Message
     
    many people base their discretionary spending according to the value of their portfolios

     

    Trust me, most of those camping out waiting for Walmart to open don't know what a portfolio is.
    26 Nov 2011, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • deercreekvols
    , contributor
    Comments (5137) | Send Message
     
    I couldn't agree more OptionManiac.
    Well said. Well said, indeed.
    26 Nov 2011, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12704) | Send Message
     
    If pessimism were an industry in America, the economy would be flying.
    26 Nov 2011, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • OptionManiac
    , contributor
    Comments (3304) | Send Message
     
    A lot of Black Friday deals are items soon to be discontinued or ones stores had a hard time moving to begin with. There is still a lot of shopping to be done out there. Then there are people like me, I have my eye on a power miter saw, hope to get the best deal closer to Christmas. There's a lot of us out there who feel the best deals are down the road (and we're probably nuts).
    26 Nov 2011, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3573) | Send Message
     
    I indulged in a spare 18v tool set at Lowe's on Friday when I was there to buy a replacement toilet (which was not a Christmas present). I put it on my Lowe's card, and got 18 months no interest. So, the tool set, the toilet, 2 boxes of tile, thinset, some base molding and a roll of masking tape for $350. I like 'Black Friday'. :)
    26 Nov 2011, 08:20 PM Reply Like
  • varan
    , contributor
    Comments (3505) | Send Message
     
    Go buy something.
    26 Nov 2011, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  • OptionManiac
    , contributor
    Comments (3304) | Send Message
     
    Depression era parents,it hurts to buy, pounded in me as a kid.
    26 Nov 2011, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • Terry330
    , contributor
    Comments (866) | Send Message
     
    President Obama has kept his word, " improve the US economy each year".
    26 Nov 2011, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • varan
    , contributor
    Comments (3505) | Send Message
     
    You may be trying to be sarcastic, but here is the amazing statistics:

     

    From 1961-2011

     

    28 Years of Repub Presidency CAGR of SP500 3%

     

    23 Years of Democratic Presidents CAGR of SP500 10%
    26 Nov 2011, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • Freedom Fan
    , contributor
    Comments (75) | Send Message
     
    Interesting. Do you suppose fiscally responsible Republicans in charge of Congress helped make a successful Democrat president like during the Clinton term?
    27 Nov 2011, 12:52 AM Reply Like
  • varan
    , contributor
    Comments (3505) | Send Message
     
    Was Reagan responsible for the economic conditions during his presidency?

     

    You can't have it both ways.
    27 Nov 2011, 01:39 AM Reply Like
  • OptionManiac
    , contributor
    Comments (3304) | Send Message
     
    The economy is bigger than any one man or any Congress.
    28 Nov 2011, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • deercreekvols
    , contributor
    Comments (5137) | Send Message
     
    Analysts who were surprised that shoppers were out and online in force need to get out of the office and see how mainstream America is oblivious to the problems in Europe and with our stock market.
    Not sure what the percentage is of people who don't own or care about stocks, but it would seem that many will not let European debt issues get in the way of Holiday shopping.
    Time for the prognosticators to come up with something else to over-analyze.
    26 Nov 2011, 06:45 PM Reply Like
  • edsanville
    , contributor
    Comments (73) | Send Message
     
    Apparently, 57% of Americans own stocks, and I'll bet many of them only own a very small portfolio. Another big chunk probably only own stocks in their retirement accounts, and rarely check up on them. I'll bet 25% or less actually own a substantial portfolio and keep a close eye on it.
    28 Nov 2011, 05:05 AM Reply Like
  • OptionManiac
    , contributor
    Comments (3304) | Send Message
     
    My gut tells me your 25% number is too high a guestimate.
    28 Nov 2011, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • GOLLIATH
    , contributor
    Comments (47) | Send Message
     
    Since Obama came to office markets are up more than 60%, the economy has recovered creating millions of jobs in the private sector. Government jobs are being reduced.....

     

    Republicans only increase warfare spending and give tax breaks to the 1%.

     

    Democrats fight for the poor and the middle class.

     

    I am voting for Obama, four more years! Four more years! Four more years!
    26 Nov 2011, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • Tricky
    , contributor
    Comments (1582) | Send Message
     
    You'll never make it into the Seeking Alpha Cool Kids Club with talk like that ;-)
    26 Nov 2011, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • Sleestakk
    , contributor
    Comments (121) | Send Message
     
    I hope you foolish bulls plow back into the market on this news. The market has been tanking and I made a bunch shorting. Would love another irrational ride up in stocks so I can again short it all back down on the cheap again.

     

    I thank all of you for your money from this summer and for setting up things nicely in October.

     

    I understand at some point you will all go broke once the European/Chinese meltdown is in full swing and tanks are market. But hey, consumers are spending, that sure is something to bet the farm on.
    26 Nov 2011, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3573) | Send Message
     
    Keep the market low through December, please. Most of my stocks pay out their dividends in December. Thanks - you're a pip.
    26 Nov 2011, 08:25 PM Reply Like
  • deercreekvols
    , contributor
    Comments (5137) | Send Message
     
    The world is blowing up.
    The world is caving in.
    The world has lost its way again. ( D. Matthews )

     

    It seems that you will be the last one standing with money when the markets implode. Congratulations, you win!

     

    Happy Holidays.
    26 Nov 2011, 08:14 PM Reply Like
  • kcr357
    , contributor
    Comments (557) | Send Message
     
    One thing you can really depend on is the average American's desire to be parted with their money.
    26 Nov 2011, 10:34 PM Reply Like
  • kvsidhi
    , contributor
    Comments (9) | Send Message
     
    It could be a signal towards consumer cautiousness. Consumers want to grab deals instead of buying at a higher prices later to hedge on their hard earned money.
    27 Nov 2011, 04:47 AM Reply Like
  • Jackson999
    , contributor
    Comments (468) | Send Message
     
    Seems many of you are forgetting about the 14 million people still unemployed. Just as with the MSM, it's as if the 14 million have been eliminated from the economy and have been totally forgotten.

     

    With these many people out of work, how can holiday spending rise much, if any at all? Are the working folks making up for the missing spending that these people are probably no longer doing? Maybe you 1%'ers here are doubling and tripling down?
    27 Nov 2011, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12704) | Send Message
     
    Apparently, unassailable hard data shows that it (sales) can rise.

     

    Being preoccupied with the unemployed always misleads people and results in drawing incorrect conclusions about the functioning of the economy.
    27 Nov 2011, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • fxmaven
    , contributor
    Comments (1455) | Send Message
     
    Let's see how sales hold up over the season, retailers are clearly trying hard to generate buzz and early sales (cash flow does count BTW). Clearly unemployment figures are not 100% correlated with spending, unemployed are working in the black economy, and rich are spending.

     

    Americans are willing to hand over money, assume unpayable liabilities to live for the moment, go ahead. I prefer a non-credit real economy but that's just me.
    27 Nov 2011, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3573) | Send Message
     
    Those unemployed in the 'black economy' are sorely underestimated. Many are collecting unemployment checks and food stamps in addition to their cash (no tax, SS, etc.) income.
    27 Nov 2011, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • Jackson999
    , contributor
    Comments (468) | Send Message
     
    @JohnBinTh - Yes I think the underground economy is the real story. There may be 14 million unemployed but maybe 7 million of those are making cash under the table, not paying any taxes and getting some form of government assistance (unemployment, food stamps, etc.).

     

    Perhaps that also explains why I can hang around a friend's liquor store and watch so many people spending a lot of CASH on lottery tickets and alcohol.

     

    I guess the USA population isn't really that different from Greece, Italy, Spain or Portugal where working for cash and not paying taxes is normal.
    27 Nov 2011, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • fxmaven
    , contributor
    Comments (1455) | Send Message
     
    Great, then USA eventual bankruptcy is all but assured. I love it.
    27 Nov 2011, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12704) | Send Message
     
    But, FX, eventually we're all dead. Timing of all these issues is an important component to investment strategy.
    27 Nov 2011, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • fxmaven
    , contributor
    Comments (1455) | Send Message
     
    I don't disagree.

     

    Yet all of a sudden I am overwhelmed with new 60+ year old american clients (very upper middle class, no oligarchs) asking me how to move their out of the USA somewhere safe for their children.

     

    Me and my clients won't be left holding the bag paying for baby boomers, illegals, poor majorities, and the crooked politico-banker corpofascist complex.
    27 Nov 2011, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • OptionManiac
    , contributor
    Comments (3304) | Send Message
     
    And where is that safe(r) haven?
    28 Nov 2011, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • varan
    , contributor
    Comments (3505) | Send Message
     
    'And where is that safe(r) haven? '

     

    rawanda, the haven for the Patriotic Americans of the Tea Party, where there are no taxes, no regulations, and the rich, no matter how small their number, are allowed to eat the poor.

     

    or may be Somalia.
    28 Nov 2011, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • OptionManiac
    , contributor
    Comments (3304) | Send Message
     
    Ha! Thought so!
    28 Nov 2011, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • fxmaven
    , contributor
    Comments (1455) | Send Message
     
    The pirates will demand some booty, and I don't mean money...
    28 Nov 2011, 06:16 PM Reply Like
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