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November ADP Jobs Report: +206K vs. +110K prior and expectations of 130K.

November ADP Jobs Report: +206K vs. +110K prior and expectations of 130K.
Comments (35)
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12717) | Send Message
     
    Yep, recession right around the corner.

     

    (Maybe, ECRI is starting to get sweaty palms, perhaps.)
    30 Nov 2011, 08:20 AM Reply Like
  • Fin858
    , contributor
    Comments (462) | Send Message
     
    ADP is actually a VERY good indicator of US nonfarm PRIVATE employment gains.

     

    Total NFP data is private and public. The govt, as many have hoped, is cutting jobs, especially at the state and local level, creating a mismatch in the data.

     

    Either way, the private sector is slowly but surely trucking along.

     

    Gov't, not so much.
    30 Nov 2011, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • OptionManiac
    , contributor
    Comments (3304) | Send Message
     
    Jobs beget jobs beget jobs..............
    30 Nov 2011, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • kwm3
    , contributor
    Comments (2453) | Send Message
     
    at a rate of 200k new jobs each month we'll be back to nearly full employment in 11 years.
    30 Nov 2011, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • enigmaman
    , contributor
    Comments (2686) | Send Message
     
    KW- nice post can be taken as either sarcasm or praise, I look at it as a start, one of many steps in the right direction. BTW- if you thinking that every job lost will be replaced, your mistaken, millions will be left without jobs because they were or are not able to adapt, that being the case 11 years would seem, excessive
    1 Dec 2011, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • Rolo
    , contributor
    Comments (147) | Send Message
     
    Is this due to more hiring for the holidays or actual full time job growth?
    30 Nov 2011, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • Fin858
    , contributor
    Comments (462) | Send Message
     
    I can guarantee they seasonally adjust it. No one prints nonseasonally adjusted numbers
    30 Nov 2011, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • GOLLIATH
    , contributor
    Comments (47) | Send Message
     
    LMAO at zerohedge and all the doomers!!! Eat it shorts!!
    30 Nov 2011, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • GOLLIATH
    , contributor
    Comments (47) | Send Message
     
    DOW up 350pts....sweet!!
    30 Nov 2011, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • Ron Myers
    , contributor
    Comments (254) | Send Message
     
    Face melting rally today...to be back to almost even for the year with a sharpe ratio of like -39349393943
    30 Nov 2011, 06:39 PM Reply Like
  • jwbrewer
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    Did anyone happen to notice how much of the increase came from high paying manufactoring jobs vs low paying service jobs?
    30 Nov 2011, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • Econdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (2944) | Send Message
     
    low paying service jobs like - doctors, lawyers, engineers - all types, designers of any any kind, anyone who works in transport and logistics - yep - we need less of those - none of those are any good - what we need is more assembly line guys fittng a windscreen or a handlebar or placing a weld - that what we need.

     

    E
    30 Nov 2011, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • jwbrewer
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    Welcome back - you disappeared last spring when jobless claims went back above 400,000 and the economy only grew at 1.3% (I guess you think 2% is robust now). Say didn't ADP release numbers similar to this about this time last year? You know..right before Recovery Spring and Summer of Recovery 2.0? BTW..you may want to recheck the lawyer employment thing.
    30 Nov 2011, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • Econdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (2944) | Send Message
     
    check the tape - never left and by the way - was buying a lot from you over the past several months - days like this bring out the no news is good news doom sayers and that always interests me
    E
    30 Nov 2011, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • jwbrewer
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    Actually, you did. Every Thursday and 1st Friday of the month I asked 'Has anyone seen bbro or Econdoc, do we need to put them on a milk carton?' Buying? - check the charts to get a idea as to whether or not you have made money this year - piker. Tip: when RUT gets to around 728 - sell.
    30 Nov 2011, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12717) | Send Message
     
    jwb:

     

    You must be in a coma, if you think bbro has been absent. Maybe, with 50 posts, you're not around much yourself.
    30 Nov 2011, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • jwbrewer
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    Absent from comments on employment during spring and summer as the picture got worse? Yes.
    30 Nov 2011, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2178) | Send Message
     
    Please doc…stats don't show they are high paying jobs and you know it. 200,000+ in a month vs loss of +300,000 in a week doesn't cut it. It hasn't cut it for the last +10 yrs. Participation rate and employment to population ratio have been falling for over a decade. We still have an increase of more work age people not working than are. We are at 1984 levels.
    http://bit.ly/pSpjQo

     

    Now granted…this report shows improvement (yea!)…but this rally mentality that government/bank bailouts is good, is pure insanity with debt levels as high as they are.

     

    This imbalance continues the debt trend the US is stuck in. Q3 debt increased by $447 Bil….Q3 GDP by $167 Bil. That isn't good no matter how you slice it. Sure people can make money trading stocks if they are quick and nimble…but the majority of people aren't in financials. They are stuck in a lousy job making crap wages because their aren't any decent paying jobs (or they don't have to proper education…which is a different subject for another time).
    1 Dec 2011, 06:46 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12717) | Send Message
     
    Papa:

     

    The changes in systemic unemployment rates are endemic and likely permanent, for the following reasons and, perhaps, more:

     

    1) U.S. labor has become increasingly less educated and skilled, mostly due to an abominable politically-correct education system and systemic lack of belief in a technical-education system

     

    2) U.S. labor has become further noncompetitive because of the expansion of government mandates, offloading costs onto businesses, making full-time employees much less attractive

     

    3) In some sectors, union wage and benefit demands have made employees too expensive for companies to compete effectively and grow

     

    4) Unrestricted immigration and absence of enforcement has allowed lower-tier corporate jobs and vast swathes of entrepreneurial small businesses to be occupied by persons not covered in official statistics nor paying proportionate taxes, but displacing job holders, who do show up in the stats

     

    5) Vast increases in quantity and duration of unemployment and other "assistance" payments has subsidized a permanent unemployed underclass, many of whom collect government payments and at the same time operate in a non-reported underground economy

     

    No doubt, more could be added to the list.

     

    The net result is that, absent systemic changes in the educational system, attitude toward business taxation and the willingness of government to constantly expand the subsidization of unemployment, we will see, over time, permanent -- and, likely, further expanding-- increases in the official unemployment statistics, gradually increasing the "normal" unemployment rate.
    1 Dec 2011, 07:18 AM Reply Like
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2178) | Send Message
     
    No argument there Tack…you hit all the high points.

     

    My concern is we have reached a time, even with slowing population growth, that there are almost as many work age people not working as are working. Coupled with those outside the work age, we have smaller group supporting a much larger group while making less money. With the numerous fed, state and local systems that must be supported the present system will reach the breaking point rather soon if something drastic isn't changed.
    1 Dec 2011, 07:34 AM Reply Like
  • enigmaman
    , contributor
    Comments (2686) | Send Message
     
    Dependency is the current governments and administrations plan, it insures their future and the compliance without force of the masses
    1 Dec 2011, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • Econdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (2944) | Send Message
     
    +200k - not bad for a recession - well I'm convinced - get ready - panic - run for your lives - save yourselves.

     

    E
    30 Nov 2011, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • Pierre Durand
    , contributor
    Comments (26) | Send Message
     
    Where shall I run to, sir?
    30 Nov 2011, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • OptionManiac
    , contributor
    Comments (3304) | Send Message
     
    Good question, PD. Maybe the moon?
    30 Nov 2011, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • dreadlordnaf
    , contributor
    Comments (481) | Send Message
     
    This report isn’t as good as it sounds once you look at the actual numbers.

     

    178k services jobs
    28k good-producing

     

    So in essence we created 178k consumer last month who will get paychecks and buy goods created primarily in other countries, thus driving up the trade deficit significantly. You realize that all the stuff you see around you that makes the world work, cars, gas, clothes on your back, the desk you are sitting at, the computer screen you are staring at - someone has to make all that. Just creating consumers (service sector jobs) who are going to export most of their paycheck dollars overseas in order to buy all that stuff isn’t a long term solution to our problems. If we are sending more dollars overseas for basic goods than we are bringing in, we are in essence borrowing to fund consumption. The gleeful reaction from this report is drastically overstated.
    30 Nov 2011, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • kwm3
    , contributor
    Comments (2453) | Send Message
     
    please tell me you are aware that US cost of living went up too high (thanks in large part to housing inflation) for it to be profitable to build or manufacture most things here, so we have the low cost of living countries do that. if we did manufacture here, that $600 computer would cost $6,000 and that $300 desk would cost $3,000... or we could pay the workers $1/hour, and the prices would come down a bit... could work if we convince the banks to reduce every mortgage by 75% to permit a reset of the wage and overall monetary system.
    30 Nov 2011, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • Insurance Bull
    , contributor
    Comments (357) | Send Message
     
    Which is why we need to disband all unions and get jobs back in America. Businesses will never come back with unions busting their margins left and right. Unions pretend to help consumers but all they do is keep unemployment high.

     

    Yes I understand unions protect workers and so on, but who pays for the consumers food when they have no job because the businesses move overseas? If our standard of living wasn't so inflated a family of 4 could get by on $20k/year. But instead we all have to have our luxuries.

     

    Just some food for thought.
    30 Nov 2011, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • American in Paris
    , contributor
    Comments (5504) | Send Message
     
    My God, some people never grow up. If the job growth was a million, you will try to twist into a portent of imminent recession.

     

    You're pathetic.
    30 Nov 2011, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • OptionManiac
    , contributor
    Comments (3304) | Send Message
     
    Maybe CEO's and upper management will take part in the cost cutting too by lowering their salaries and bonus', or is it just the American worker that must bear the brunt.
    $20K a year? You're not very good at math. Health insurance alone would be half of that, unless you count that as a luxury.
    30 Nov 2011, 08:15 PM Reply Like
  • IncomeYield
    , contributor
    Comments (1449) | Send Message
     
    Maybe McDonalds and Panera Bread. Anybody can do their own focus group and survey just by asking around to 10 or 20 companies. Nobody is adding any significant head count. On the other hand, go back over the last few weeks and months and count the high paying layoffs. The financial sector alone is contracting rapidly as well as state and fed government.
    1 Dec 2011, 12:11 AM Reply Like
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2178) | Send Message
     
    Hopefully they are good jobs and not crap low wage ones.
    30 Nov 2011, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • enigmaman
    , contributor
    Comments (2686) | Send Message
     
    Papa- if they arent take it up with Obama, because he promised his policies would produce good jobs with good wages
    1 Dec 2011, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12717) | Send Message
     
    enig:

     

    Inviolate Rule #1:

     

    Politicians produce nothing, then, now and always.
    1 Dec 2011, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • enigmaman
    , contributor
    Comments (2686) | Send Message
     
    Tack- Were you thinking I was thinking otherwise, otherwise I would have been more direct then I otherwise was, was hoping to "convey my thought between the lines"
    1 Dec 2011, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12717) | Send Message
     
    enig:

     

    No, just emphasizing the obvious.
    1 Dec 2011, 01:50 PM Reply Like
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