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"Do you really think risk-averse central bankers are going to try and catch the knife," asks...

"Do you really think risk-averse central bankers are going to try and catch the knife," asks Credit Suisse commodity research chief Ric Deverell about gold. "No" is his answer as this crowd only buys when the price is headed higher. Of reports of heavy physical buying, he's unimpressed, noting investment demand (ETFs) is the gorilla in the gold market. The metal's (GLD -1.6%) within a few dollars of taking out the 26-month low hit in April.
Comments (18)
  • winningtrader
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    In fact ETF's are small. It is the Chinese, Indians, Russians and other like them that are the big bears in the gold market. ETF's are very small.
    17 May 2013, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2727) | Send Message
     
    Not just that WT, but if you manage a hedge fund right now, you're buying this dip or thinking about buying this dip while selling some profitable stocks. The hedge funds selling gold are possibly doing so because of forced liquidation, but we are ever closer to the bottom.

     

    My next article will be bullish with 80% probability of being correct. I am still dollar bullish though.
    17 May 2013, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10146) | Send Message
     
    Please, my sides are hurting from laughing so much !
    17 May 2013, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • Jason Burack
    , contributor
    Comments (1721) | Send Message
     
    Credit Suisse is known perma bears for gold. Haven't they always had much lower long term price targets and they completely missed the move higher. China will buy the dip. Not sure about other central banks. China's trade data proves the dip is being aggressively bought.
    17 May 2013, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • Jason Burack
    , contributor
    Comments (1721) | Send Message
     
    The US Dollar and US capital markets are being used as a safe haven by European and Japanese flight capital. US Dollar is also being propped up by Japan. Short Yen is easy long term money. The Yen may be at 115 by the end of the year against the US Dollar.
    17 May 2013, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • june1234
    , contributor
    Comments (2499) | Send Message
     
    http://goo.gl/819Gh. I like the Japanese way, publicly announce in Feb they want to see Nikkei go up 17% to 13K by end of march, print $75B a month to do it; mission accomplished, much less confusing for investors and traders alike.
    17 May 2013, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • minecanary
    , contributor
    Comments (411) | Send Message
     
    Who is the idiot behind this post? Like China, Russia, and the rest of the world are going to slow down their voracious buying because the FED is trying to cover its ridicoulous printing... SA has become just another Bernake mouthpiece and about as useful and impartial as CNN. Goodbye.
    17 May 2013, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • Jason Burack
    , contributor
    Comments (1721) | Send Message
     
    What is the track record of this CS analyst? Has he ever had a good gold call in a decade?
    17 May 2013, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • youngman442002
    , contributor
    Comments (5131) | Send Message
     
    In a short time...the Eastern world will own much of the metal..and it won´t be coming back.....mining is getting harder and costs much more...the West is selling their sole for paper profits...short term gain for sure..but long term loss is also true....the fall of the fiat dollar...
    17 May 2013, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • Jason Burack
    , contributor
    Comments (1721) | Send Message
     
    Keynesian economics, politicians and central planners are all short term rent seekers. Their philosophy is built around short term thinking only to try and maintain the status quo.
    17 May 2013, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • rco1
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    Wouldn't be surprised to see some kind of Chinese water torture on the gold market in the next weeks till they consider the price really attractive enough.
    17 May 2013, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • 7of9
    , contributor
    Comments (299) | Send Message
     
    Gold is on my conviction sell list. Dollar is headed higher.
    17 May 2013, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • The_Batman
    , contributor
    Comments (41) | Send Message
     
    Yes, I agree. But what about the Chinese and Russians that are apparently determined to buy all the world's gold for reasons only known to them?

     

    seriously though, what's your price target
    17 May 2013, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • Red Raider
    , contributor
    Comments (222) | Send Message
     
    Gold is down because the fiat dollar is up. When that situation reverses, gold goes up.

     

    Only question is how much longer will the dollar investors think it is safe. Almost everyone says that the Bernacke Bucks will lose their value in time, as inflation becomes real. We do have laws against counterfeit money for a reason.

     

    So far most of the printed money is being held in reserve, and the velocity of money remains low.
    When the reserves become excessive, the money will start to accelerate and gold will jump.

     

    But when does all this happen? Not till investors lose cofidence, and this may take several years, or it could happen tomorrow.

     

    The wheels are coming off Obama's Brave New World. Watch the long term bond or the TBT!
    17 May 2013, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • dragos2901
    , contributor
    Comments (73) | Send Message
     
    Gold is going down, the stock market is heading higher. The bond yields are going higher. Inflation is heading lower, the stock market is heading higher. And of course, the buck is heading higher.
    Something is wrong with the stock market, not with the gold market.
    18 May 2013, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • youngman442002
    , contributor
    Comments (5131) | Send Message
     
    I think it happens when they have finally pushed the stock markets to a 30 to 1 P/E ratio....then it gets to frothy for them and they run to the next item de jour..and that will be PM´s..but by then most will have gone East....and the ride up will be fast and furious..
    18 May 2013, 08:14 AM Reply Like
  • Billy T2
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    U6 unemployment went up - first time since July 08 as it counts the part time workers. Companies are hiring more half timers, etc. so they can get the average hours worked below 30/week and then escape from a lot of costly obligation (many required by ObamaCare).

     

    That means more with less take home pay and Bernanke will need to keep proping up the economy with the printing press which is very good for gold long term, at least in dollar prices.
    18 May 2013, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • snapper1234
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    •Original comment:
    CS as a company are gold bears and they write the same old boring stuff as all other "bear" campers. Litter the report with stacks of charts to "fatten" it up and sign off. If they are wong then use some excuse like Fed changed its mind or Bernanke sneezed or something equally ridiculous. Fact is mining costs were very bloated and managements became lazy. Costs HAVE to come down and in a big way, salaries have to come down as well. It is happening in Australia where I come from - many drill rigs are laid up looking for work. A lot of expensive equipment gathering dust and uneconomic mines on "care and maintenance". However as a positive theme out strong currency has fallen some 6% this year and from the April low of A$1325 p/oz we are now at about A$1460. That is significant for mines in production who in reality were facing $1200 p/oz all in costs. We need more "basing' of the US$ gold price, wash out the gold bullion ETF's and get rid of them - simply a fee printing machine of absolutely no value wahtsoever to the producers and genuine buyers (a VDD - very disruptive derivative).So its not just US$ gold to take a look at - I have keen interest being shown right now in producing and or near producing gold mines here - more currency related than the underlying + the low sovereign risk compared with some lunatic domiciles. Omagine if you had bought some gold vs Yen a while back (ahhh Harry Hindsight). Goodnight from Sydney - over and out
    6 Jun 2013, 09:50 PM Reply Like
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