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Nov. Nonfarm Payrolls: +120K vs. consensus of +125K, +100K (revised) prior. Unemployment 8.6% vs...

Nov. Nonfarm Payrolls: +120K vs. consensus of +125K, +100K (revised) prior. Unemployment 8.6% vs 9% expected. Avg. hourly earnings -0.1%. to $23.18. Workweek unchanged at 34.3 hours.
Comments (48)
  • wyostocks
    , contributor
    Comments (7706) | Send Message
     
    Happy days are here again.
    2 Dec 2011, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • jwbrewer
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    I hope you are being sarcastic. It is a sad day in America when a drop in unemployment rate is due to people giving up on looking for work (at least during the holiday season - I hope) and not due to actual full time jobs being created.
    2 Dec 2011, 08:45 AM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10275) | Send Message
     
    "Despite a slightly lower-than-expected 120K new jobs the unemployment rate declined from 9.0% to 8.6%. The briefing.com consensus was for 123K new jobs. Why the big rate drop from last month's 9.0% on such few news jobs? One view is that many of the jobless have quit looking for jobs, and thus are not counted as officially unemployed."

     

    http://bit.ly/uhgEhJ

     

    Also...average duration of unemployment measured in weeks is at an all time high of more than 40 weeks.
    2 Dec 2011, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • Lionprince2011
    , contributor
    Comments (26) | Send Message
     
    That's an intellectually dishonest Republican party look at the unemployment figures, which clearly stated that the September and October employment figures were understated or upwardly revised to a total of above 100K, so that despite the people who may have given up searching for jobs (not a certainty for the estimated 330K) , so the net Job gain from September to November stands at well above 230K. If you are good at calculating unemployment figures the rate of decline would put it at 8.6%.
    If the republican's had not forced the loss of over 20K Government Jobs in November and over 600K in the past 2 years the unemployment would be 7.5% today. If they had passed the Obama Job's Bill that would create nearly 2 million jobs, the unemployment would be 6.8% and declining.
    3 Dec 2011, 06:17 AM Reply Like
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2190) | Send Message
     
    @Lion…it has nothing to do with party…frankly I see zero difference between the 2 except rhetoric.
    The unemployment rate went down due to the denominator shrinking (size of workforce). This isn't anything new, and can be clearly seen via the Labor force participation rate (employed vs work age population):
    http://bit.ly/pSpjQo
    Back the data up to 1999 and one can see the peak and then long decline trend.

     

    Population growth has slowed and aged in the last decade, but instead of the participation rate increasing due to a larger work age population it has been decreasing since May of 2000. It amazes me that no one really discusses this rather glaring issue.

     

    A +10 yrs decline crosses both party boundaries of congressional and WH control. Thus BOTH parties get the chump award…to say any different is to be a blind party follower. The question that needs to be asked is, "What thing(s) changed over a decade ago to start and continue this degradation?"

     

    The fact that neither party wishes to address this shows a rather dishonest face to those in power (regardless of party). I think Tack made a rather perfect list of some of the underlying issues that have us in our present predicament….Neither party is doing squat to address them other than words and window dressing.
    3 Dec 2011, 07:55 AM Reply Like
  • Vaun
    , contributor
    Comments (316) | Send Message
     
    Don't forget all those emergency unemployment extensions end at the new year.
    3 Dec 2011, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10275) | Send Message
     
    Papa....you Da Man. Well said and accurate. Not to mention, the last thing we need is more government employment. If that were the answer we'd should all be working for the government, like Greece, Cuba and the former Soviets....who clearly demonstrated in modern times that paradigm is full of baloney.
    3 Dec 2011, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2190) | Send Message
     
    @Vaun…agreed....it will be interesting to see what happens. A double whammy is about to hit. Those benefits will run out and the government will be butting up against the debt ceiling...presently a 'mere' $149 Billion away or about 1 month's spending. So debt ceiling will have to be raised and benefits will have to be extended..or…well I guess we will find out.
    3 Dec 2011, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • Rhianni32
    , contributor
    Comments (1999) | Send Message
     
    I'm sure Zero Hedge will jump in at some point to convince us that the end of the world is still here.
    2 Dec 2011, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • new slang
    , contributor
    Comments (164) | Send Message
     
    Well 8.6% does still suck... plus a decrease in participation rate.
    2 Dec 2011, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • jwbrewer
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    Say what you will, but he would be right.
    2 Dec 2011, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2190) | Send Message
     
    Did you look at the participation rate? Dropped. Size of workforce?...dropped Not In Labor Force...huge increase. The denominator was reduced, that is why the unemployment rate dropped.

     

    Levels are now at 1983 labor levels.
    2 Dec 2011, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • Rhianni32
    , contributor
    Comments (1999) | Send Message
     
    I'm not saying this is a good report. My point is simply that Zero Hedge will continue to beat the panic everyone fear the end of times drum and people will eat it up.
    He could win the lottery and spin it into bad.
    2 Dec 2011, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2190) | Send Message
     
    ZH does give the negative spin, but in this case they are correct. They also tend to follow people such as Ray Dalio, whose predictions back in July seem to be coming to fruition.

     

    A market rallying massively on rumors (Europe) and ignoring a rather poor showing on the home front (ex. Q3 Debt grew by $447 Billion while Q3 GDP grew by $167 Billion or a stagnant employment situation mired in 1983-84 levels) seems more like desperation to get in the last hurrah. Most people are not day traders nor watch their investments daily. This means most people's investments are stagnating at best (down 1.74% over last 5 yrs) coupled with inflation, stagnating wages, declining home values and interest rates near zero…the average person is loosing money/wealth at an alarming rate.
    3 Dec 2011, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • blueline
    , contributor
    Comments (1310) | Send Message
     
    Either a lot of people have given up looking for a job or they are working off the grid or both.
    2 Dec 2011, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • jwbrewer
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    It is interesting that you say that. Over the summer, I found out that some people that I know were 'laid off' from their job (transportation/warehouse industry) only to go back to work for the same company as 'independent contractors' for cash only. They and their 'client' pays no SS taxes and I think they may even be collecting unemployment; I am not even sure if they are going to claim their pay as income.
    2 Dec 2011, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • blueline
    , contributor
    Comments (1310) | Send Message
     
    Historically the only real power the people have over corrupt bloated governments (short of violence) is to withhold their assets from taxation. We did it to the British, the Russians did it to the communists, the Greeks and Italians are doing it to their governments.
    2 Dec 2011, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10275) | Send Message
     
    Even as an "independent contractor" a self-employed person is supposed to pay both the employee and employer portion of SS taxes. When they get a 1099 from their "employer" they will theoretically have to report that income and will then be liable for those taxes at the combined rate.
    2 Dec 2011, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • Moon Kil Woong
    , contributor
    Comments (11062) | Send Message
     
    This seems like gross manipulation for election year hype. The growth was anemic at best and the fact less people are even looking for a job is bad, not good.
    2 Dec 2011, 09:57 PM Reply Like
  • Vaun
    , contributor
    Comments (316) | Send Message
     
    "Independent Contractors" don't get benefits... it's a way to pay someone less.
    3 Dec 2011, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10275) | Send Message
     
    Yea MKW....interesting that the only ones campaigning and having to answer questions are the Republicans right now....what a bunch of baloney. I guess the Dems figure if you can avoid having to be in the spotlight for the next 12 months....then you can avoid having to answer for the current situation. Thanks MSM.
    3 Dec 2011, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • IncomeYield
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    oDesk, eLance -- stuff like that
    2 Dec 2011, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • youngman442002
    , contributor
    Comments (5131) | Send Message
     
    OK..if you are in the camp that this is a good number...then watch food stamps...that number should drop then....I don´t think it will....this 8.6% number is because they reduced the work force...
    2 Dec 2011, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • youngman442002
    , contributor
    Comments (5131) | Send Message
     
    and one more thing...120,000 does not cut it by far...not even close...
    2 Dec 2011, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • IncomeYield
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    Agreed, not even close.
    http://bit.ly/ryM9q8
    2 Dec 2011, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • Terry330
    , contributor
    Comments (866) | Send Message
     
    President Obama wins again.
    2 Dec 2011, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • jwbrewer
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    Wins with people giving up looking for a job. Your joy from toking the Hopium pipe comes from other peoples pain; I guess you can live with yourself as well as living in momma's basement.
    2 Dec 2011, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • wyostocks
    , contributor
    Comments (7706) | Send Message
     
    Obama just signed a bill allowing the killing for horses for human consumption. Hope you enjoy it.
    2 Dec 2011, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • Conventional Wisdumb
    , contributor
    Comments (1802) | Send Message
     
    Terry is a victim of Abused Liberal Syndrome.

     

    Despite being used, abused, and lied to by Dear Leader (War Monger in Chief), she still stands by her man.
    2 Dec 2011, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10275) | Send Message
     
    If she likes war mongers - who lied about bringing the troops home and upped the stakes in Afghanistan.....then she should be more embracing of George W. Bush....right Terry?
    2 Dec 2011, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • torahislife
    , contributor
    Comments (400) | Send Message
     
    In a healthy economy today's job report would be considered "awful". Fact is they are awful. Market is grasping at straws. Big trouble ahead.
    2 Dec 2011, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • Pragmatic Bear
    , contributor
    Comments (89) | Send Message
     
    It looks good in the papers: UNEMPLOYMENT RATE DROPS TO 8.6%. However, it neglects to mention that the drop in the rate is due largely to the decrease in the labor force not an increase in employment.
    2 Dec 2011, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • IncomeYield
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    Seems 10% or so will now be structural. 10,000 boomers retiring per day also.
    2 Dec 2011, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • 368275
    , contributor
    Comments (19) | Send Message
     
    Despite Republican blockade to any effort to create jobs. Not bad.
    2 Dec 2011, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • Econdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (2944) | Send Message
     
    ignore unemployment rate - at this point in the cycle it does not matter

     

    120,000 is mediocre - not horrible but not great.

     

    the number to watch is not any of these it is the Thursday morning number

     

    payroll matters later in the cycle

     

    E
    2 Dec 2011, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2190) | Send Message
     
    Come on doc...participation rate dropped to 1983 levels. Fewer workers supporting an ever increasing group of not working....
    http://bit.ly/pSpjQo

     

    bbro will tell the the internal numbers were bad news.

     

    Every Thursday we have +300,000 NEW unemployment filings.
    2 Dec 2011, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • Conventional Wisdumb
    , contributor
    Comments (1802) | Send Message
     
    Strange that in the land of government statistics what should be considered a failure, a drop in the labor force and people giving up, is considered a success.

     

    How do you categorize people that are not employed and want to work but have given up?

     

    Seriously where do they go?

     

    They are neither employed nor unemployed according to the government so how do they survive?

     

    Is it Soylent Green?
    2 Dec 2011, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • 7footMoose
    , contributor
    Comments (2266) | Send Message
     
    And just who are they trying to fool?
    2 Dec 2011, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • Forbisher
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Right now is a great time to get home improvements completed by off-grid workers, websites built, gardening, plumbing, computer and car repairs. Pay cash and you'll get all kinds of work done dirt cheap - and not by illegal immigrants. Cash is king right now.

     

    Another consideration I don't see anyone mention is Boomer retirements - they should be coming fast and furious right now. Any Boomer thrown out of work has Social Security as an option when they can't find a job. How many retire each month?
    2 Dec 2011, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • surfnspy
    , contributor
    Comments (415) | Send Message
     
    Goldman Sachs puts the actual unemployment rate at 16%. For once, I believe them. Additionally, the majority of these jobs created were seasonal retail jobs.
    2 Dec 2011, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • hat_trick3
    , contributor
    Comments (831) | Send Message
     
    what a bunch of meaningless B.S.
    How can the addition of 120,000 jobs lower the rate by .5%? This would imply the nations' workforce is about 24 million people.

     

    for perspective, there are 35 million Americans receiving welfare (social assistance) as of November 2011.

     

    Everyone knows that the U-6 rate, (or independent research) measures real unemployment in the mid teens.
    2 Dec 2011, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • faustius
    , contributor
    Comments (464) | Send Message
     
    Hmm, I'm not so sure all the negativity is warranted. Sure there's a huge "shadow inventory" of unemployed. Sure there's millions more underemployed. However, those things have been true for years, and just act as headwinds on the official unemployment rate.

     

    Eventually, the official number is going to cross a psychological barrier, say under 7% for 2 consecutive months in about a year. Then we'll see a huge rally develop as consumers stop deleveraging, and companies deploy the retained earnings they've been hoarding.

     

    For the time being though, nothing much to see here. We're just a bit closer to that day.
    2 Dec 2011, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • hat_trick3
    , contributor
    Comments (831) | Send Message
     
    wait a second, so you're telling me since we don't officially recognize all these millions of unemployed, they just a figment of our imaginations?

     

    Next thing we'll hear is there isn't actually a crime problem because most of the murder victims are either: a) non U.S citizens, b)have been incarcerated and hence not able to vote, or lastly, c) were not counted in the census, nor filed a tax return, so in "theory" they don't even exist.

     

    Can you see how ridiculous this is?
    5 Dec 2011, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • faustius
    , contributor
    Comments (464) | Send Message
     
    If you can figure out a way to quantify how many people would be looking for work if the economy was better, be my guest...but how much better would be your benchmark?

     

    My point was that the official rate can't improve without plowing through the unknown number of people who have currently giving up looking for work. Would you rather the official rate be 12%, with millions uncounted, or 8.6%?
    7 Dec 2011, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • Inzaghi009
    , contributor
    Comments (25) | Send Message
     
    I love these comments. Helps me short the market and sleep at night. Thanks guys!
    2 Dec 2011, 10:41 PM Reply Like
  • Pragmatic Bear
    , contributor
    Comments (89) | Send Message
     
    If you were shorting this week you weren't sleeping well.
    2 Dec 2011, 10:53 PM Reply Like
  • Inzaghi009
    , contributor
    Comments (25) | Send Message
     
    Oh I sleep well alright.. =P.. got used to the volatility now.. cant' be bothered.. in the back of my mind just hoping the markets will revert.. medium to long term view.. high risk.. etc.. Wish I could day trade but I have a real job so it's tough at the point in time.
    2 Dec 2011, 10:55 PM Reply Like
  • faustius
    , contributor
    Comments (464) | Send Message
     
    Actually, my comment was pretty neutral regarding the short term direction of the market. I wouldn't be bullish unless there was a reason for it, and we're not there yet.

     

    However, if a neutral comment helps gives you confidence in your short positions, then more power to you. You should do OK once this rally fizzles out in a few more trading days.
    3 Dec 2011, 01:30 AM Reply Like
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