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Back from a recent visit to the Far East, Steven Rattner says betting against China as "the...

Back from a recent visit to the Far East, Steven Rattner says betting against China as "the world's greatest machine for economic expansion" is a bad idea: "The country pulses with energy and success, a caldron of economic ambition larded with understandable self-confidence."
Comments (22)
  • fxmaven
    , contributor
    Comments (1455) | Send Message
     
    Marc Faber who LIVES in SE Asia sees a rapid deceleration of the Asian and Global economy. A Wall Street sell sider vs. Independant Maverick Investor .

     

    Guess for yourself who is telling what's really on his mind.
    3 Dec 2011, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13579) | Send Message
     
    Gee, fx, Jim Rogers lives over there, too, and he sees it differently. Let's play pundit roulette.
    3 Dec 2011, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • fxmaven
    , contributor
    Comments (1455) | Send Message
     
    Rogers is very good too. China will of course be very powerful and a global economic force. Yet the downdrafts will be very powerful, and blind optimism is a fool's game.

     

    For the short /medium term all the PMI figures are flashing red, and China is very likely re-playing the US housing/credit bubble game, with all the attendant consequences.
    3 Dec 2011, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13579) | Send Message
     
    fx:

     

    Come on. A few months back the fear du jour was a runaway unsustainable growth bubble in China, so they took steps to tighten up, which at first had little effect, but, now, are showing results. So, now, the fear du jour is imminent collapse, taking the whole world along, of course.

     

    I am surprised -- maybe, I shouldn't be, given that SA seems littered with people who see worldwide economic doom around every corner and just bounce from one imagined crisis to another, nonstop. If something simmers down somewhere, they immediately have a new one conjured up to propagated their incessant need for gloom and doom.

     

    I often wonder why these folks are here on SA, at all, rather than out back building bomb shelters, planting crops, or, perhaps, going to look for a job, since many bemoan finances all the while, too.

     

    The alternatives in investment management aren't Armageddon and "blind optimism." Fools occupy both camps, although I'd say over the longer term that the blind optimists do better than the world enders. Because, over time, trends are always up, especially as measured in nominal dollars.
    3 Dec 2011, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • fxmaven
    , contributor
    Comments (1455) | Send Message
     
    I just see a slowdown and stock market correction. Not gloom and doom at all, just a very possible outcome given the fragility of the global ponzi scheme.

     

    One policy error in Europe and the S&P is back at 1050 - and don't tell me it isn't possible - throwing China, into recession.

     

    Or is the data point 54% of adults working a sign of a healthy economy?
    3 Dec 2011, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • The Geoffster
    , contributor
    Comments (4013) | Send Message
     
    Thoughtful comment as always Tack, but you miss the nuance. There are many doom and gloom investors here, including yours truly. We are in the midst of what could well be a worldwide solvency crisis led by Europe which is almost certainly in recession and ripe for spreading contagion. I trade weekly throughout many asset classes, but retain a healthy cash and PM reserve. The world isn't going to end, but it will take many years to restore the economy.
    3 Dec 2011, 07:24 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13579) | Send Message
     
    fx & geoffster:

     

    Anything is "possible." The Earth could get ended by an asteroid at some point. The issue is what you want to bet on. Personally -- and I've been doing this for a long time -- I bet on man's desire to persevere and on the power of governments to deflate debts by inflating fiat currencies. One can argue all one wishes that this isn't the way that it should work, it's not "fair," etc., but it's the way it does work, so substituting academic postulates for real-world reality isn't usually a productive investment strategy.

     

    Of course, I am not a trader hare, but rather a turtle-like value investor. However, I've made that work nicely for many years in all kinds of up and down markets, so, maybe, there's something to be said for the approach, rather than trying to determine whether I know which way the market will move next week.
    3 Dec 2011, 10:02 PM Reply Like
  • fxmaven
    , contributor
    Comments (1455) | Send Message
     
    There is plenty of money to be made shorting ; especially the stupid mo-mo chinese and us consumer stocks. I was in the US last week and saw warehouses full of UA and NKE sportswear, probably 2/3 years worth of channel stuffing.

     

    Europe is in deep, deep trouble which will weigh on S&P EPS, along with the euro.

     

    Good luck selling that inventory and preserving your margins in the high inflation/low income growth environment.Even the uberrich can't carry the entire stock market, if you destroy the American middle class, place your bets on India + China - if it works i'm long when it fails i'm short.

     

    cover-buy low /sell-short.
    3 Dec 2011, 10:42 PM Reply Like
  • stalker001
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
     
    yes., they do better in term of 10,000 years.
    4 Dec 2011, 03:23 AM Reply Like
  • 1980XLS-2.0
    , contributor
    Comments (525) | Send Message
     
    My investment time horizon, is slightly less than 10,000 years.
    4 Dec 2011, 04:39 AM Reply Like
  • 1980XLS-2.0
    , contributor
    Comments (525) | Send Message
     
    So, far I think Jim Chanos has been the one making money.

     

    Lots of people against any of those that think China has issues

     

    http://bit.ly/tVHdle
    3 Dec 2011, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • untrusting investor
    , contributor
    Comments (9966) | Send Message
     
    Good link to a short Steven Roach interview. Roach is still pretty positive on China, although one wonders how worldwide looming recession cannot have some negative impacts on China. And Roach is not very positive on the EU as he notes the very small EU proposal of about 200billion vs. the Fed response of over 12trillion in 2008/09. Usually Roach is pretty realistic and a straight shooter. So if Roach thinks the EU response is pretty minimal, it sure seems likely that the EU crisis will morph into larger worldwide effect in 2012 & 2013.
    4 Dec 2011, 02:31 AM Reply Like
  • D_Virginia
    , contributor
    Comments (2280) | Send Message
     
    I wonder if Steven Rattner saw the whole picture, or just the parts that China likes to show the tourists?
    3 Dec 2011, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • wyostocks
    , contributor
    Comments (8244) | Send Message
     
    fxmaven:
    Rattner---NO
    Faber---YES
    3 Dec 2011, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • Eric Stalee
    , contributor
    Comments (91) | Send Message
     
    Let me amend his statement: "The APPEARANCE OF THE country pulses with energy and success, a caldron of economic ambition larded with understandable self-confidence."

     

    South China Mall much? Or all the ghost cities? http://bit.ly/oRJjkh
    3 Dec 2011, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • IncomeYield
    , contributor
    Comments (2105) | Send Message
     
    Directly from China:
    The growth of China’s non-manufacturing sector slowed sharply in November, as indicated by a plunge in the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) said Saturday.
    http://bit.ly/thYfVy
    3 Dec 2011, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • 1980XLS-2.0
    , contributor
    Comments (525) | Send Message
     
    I'd rather listen to the charts, rather than somebody that might be talking their book.

     

    Like Rattner, Rodgers or Roach.

     

    Faber & Chanos' opinions match the charts, for the time being at least.

     

    http://yhoo.it/sNozUr
    3 Dec 2011, 06:58 PM Reply Like
  • The Geoffster
    , contributor
    Comments (4013) | Send Message
     
    China is a centrally planned economy. i don't take my investment cues from technocrats.
    3 Dec 2011, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • davidbdc
    , contributor
    Comments (3165) | Send Message
     
    Steve Rattner? "I neither confirm nor deny the charges against me".

     

    Scum. He doesn't deserve to be a free man. In China he'd already have had his death sentence carried out.

     

    He and others like him are the reason our optimism has been crushed - crony capitalism and graft enriching folks like himself.
    3 Dec 2011, 08:07 PM Reply Like
  • Jason Merriam
    , contributor
    Comments (805) | Send Message
     
    Steven Rattner is as his name implies....a ratt!
    3 Dec 2011, 10:17 PM Reply Like
  • Angel Martin
    , contributor
    Comments (1311) | Send Message
     
    "The country pulses with energy and success, a caldron of economic ambition larded with understandable self-confidence."

     

    sounds like something that could have been written about America in 1927 or 1928.

     

    In fact, here is a representative quote:

     

    "I cannot help but raise a dissenting voice to statements that we are living in a fool's paradise, and that prosperity in this country must necessarily diminish and recede in the near future."
    - E. H. H. Simmons, President, New York Stock Exchange, January 12, 1928
    3 Dec 2011, 09:03 PM Reply Like
  • The Geoffster
    , contributor
    Comments (4013) | Send Message
     
    "Don't believe any false rumors unless you hear them from me."
    - Former New Orleans Mayor Vic Schiro
    3 Dec 2011, 10:03 PM Reply Like
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