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FRBNY Bill Dudley says it will be 3-4 months before the Fed will have a sense of how the economy...

FRBNY Bill Dudley says it will be 3-4 months before the Fed will have a sense of how the economy is responding to fiscal drag and can decide whether to reduce (or expand?) asset purchases. Speaking to Bloomberg, Dudley says the FOMC has yet to get to a point of agreeing on a strategy for cutting back QE. Three-four months? ... Should make Bernanke's Jackson Hole speech an interesting one.
Comments (9)
  • Dividend Surfer
    , contributor
    Comments (39) | Send Message
     
    I thought Ben wasn't going to Jackson Hole.
    22 May 2013, 07:45 AM Reply Like
  • FentAndMidaz
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
     
    I second that, previously had been reported that he wouldn't.
    22 May 2013, 08:02 AM Reply Like
  • youngman442002
    , contributor
    Comments (5131) | Send Message
     
    He is not..but maybe he will twitter a speech or something....
    22 May 2013, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • Joe2922
    , contributor
    Comments (406) | Send Message
     
    End is nigh, perhaps a dip soon then one more rally push, but these parabolic moves never end well. Here's where we are in the Bull/Bear Cycle: http://bit.ly/WpVqYk
    22 May 2013, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1029) | Send Message
     
    I don't understand what is the matter with all these Fed officials coming out like termites saying this or that about QEs; aren't they giving out insiders' information talking like that or is just misinformation to mess up investors; IMHO the Fed is desperate and crying wolf
    22 May 2013, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (5328) | Send Message
     
    My theory is that it they are just jawboning. They have every intention of keeping QE going full bore, but they learned that by constantly harping on their intentions to keep going full bore, commodities, like gold, went parabolic. The Fed caught heat for that. So, this time around, they figure they will send mixed signals to keep the commodity people guessing, and thereby keep commodity prices down (but equities up). Then they can say, "See, see, gold is going down. That means people are selling their gold because they have real economic opportunities to invest in, and that means QE is working."
    22 May 2013, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1029) | Send Message
     
    hooper
    that makes a whole lot sense to me; thank you for the clarification...not that I would base my investment decisions on what these shyster say
    22 May 2013, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (5328) | Send Message
     
    I view QE as a consumption subsidy. An equity index is basically a measure of consumption (people buy and consume things which gets measured in earnings), thus as long as QE is on, consumption subsidies are on, and thus equities should go up. Now, fiscal policy can offset what a CB like the Fed is doing, so you have to factor that into the consumption subsidy provided by the Fed. Right now, there isn't a whole lot changing with fiscal policy. Sure there is some meddling around the margins, but I am talking about a large macro change. The only two large changes on the horizon are Obamacare and Dodd Frank. They don't hit all at once, and even the exchanges in Ocare that are scheduled for Oct seem to have lots of teeth taken out of them. So we may have a risk-on scenario until the end of the year and even into 2014. So I would not be surprised to see the S&P at 2000 and the 10 yr at 2.30 or 2.40 between now and then.
    22 May 2013, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1029) | Send Message
     
    hooper
    thanks again for your interesting perspectives; yes I wouldn't be surprised to see sp at 2000 and the 10 yr at 2.30 by end of year but I am not going to chase after them because I don't invest based on how the Fed acts
    22 May 2013, 05:49 PM Reply Like
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