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The smart money is selling, writes Ukarlewitz, commenting on the plummeting Smart Money/Dumb...

The smart money is selling, writes Ukarlewitz, commenting on the plummeting Smart Money/Dumb Money Confidence Index from SentimenTrader. The measure has a reasonable track record over the last few years at pointing out market tops and bottoms, and it's screaming "top" right now. Whether it's a 5% correction or something worse remains to be seen, but insiders see something bad coming and they're bailing out.
Comments (18)
  • Anyone knows what input data is used to calculate smart money vs. dumb money?
    23 May 2013, 11:21 PM Reply Like
  • Well, the smart money is the people who wear nice clothes, drive expensive automobiles and don,t play the stock market...the dumb money , well, I am just not smart enough to figure out that part.
    24 May 2013, 12:33 AM Reply Like
  • I'M NOT FAMILIAR WITH UKARLEWITZ. COULD YOU SUPPLY ME BIOGRAPHICAL DATA. aRE YOU FINANCIAL ANALYST? IF SO, WHAT FIRM; A NEWSLETTER AUTHOR?, IF SO WHAT PUBLICATION.

     

    THANKS
    24 May 2013, 12:05 AM Reply Like
  • click on the link it gives a sample of the data used
    24 May 2013, 01:38 AM Reply Like
  • Wow.
    24 May 2013, 03:54 AM Reply Like
  • It's just and advertisment in disguise. If it was a real edge it wouldnt be for sale...
    24 May 2013, 12:25 AM Reply Like
  • I don't think it's that good of an indicator - just look at the patterns.. No magic bullet out there...
    24 May 2013, 12:29 AM Reply Like
  • True, it's not a good timing indicator, the Bull/Bear Cycle along with these chart patterns show the same thing, a long topping process in play http://bit.ly/WpVqYk
    24 May 2013, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • I just said that you are not sure of ny formula
    24 May 2013, 12:30 AM Reply Like
  • Based on aggregate hedge fund performance in the last five years, "smart" is the new "dumb".
    24 May 2013, 01:05 AM Reply Like
  • There's always plenty of doom & gloom out there but who really ever knows when or how much of a correction we'll see. You can protect some of the down side by using trailing stops.
    24 May 2013, 02:26 AM Reply Like
  • It's hard to get out of stocks, when QE is still going strong.
    24 May 2013, 05:41 AM Reply Like
  • Today, I used trailing stops. I got stopped out, and then it went on up to end positive.
    When I don't use stops, I lose money. When I use stops, I lose money. Maybe the best thing to do is to use a far stop, only for emergencies, and then NOT a stop market, but a stop limit.
    24 May 2013, 05:42 AM Reply Like
  • There's always plenty of doom & gloom out there but who really knows when or how much of a correction we'll see.
    24 May 2013, 02:28 AM Reply Like
  • Is this just a "sell in May and go away" indicator? That has worked for the last few years. No guarantee this year though.
    24 May 2013, 02:55 AM Reply Like
  • Bottomless punch bowl. Sell at your own risk.
    24 May 2013, 04:05 AM Reply Like
  • I like the sentiment trader charts. They compare a lot of different indicators and you get a sense of how risky the market might be at a given point in time. But exact timing is still a dream. Smart vs Dumb money is just one indicator. Roughly it is volume of retail purchases vs institutional purchases among other things.
    24 May 2013, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • The smart money is Benanke and his friends (banks). The dumb money is all those suckers listening to the talking heads. For the record I went short the market last week. I guess I was feeling too dumb.
    24 May 2013, 09:04 AM Reply Like
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