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Nokia's (NOK -2.6%) is likely to issue a Q2 warning in the next few weeks, writes RBC in a note...

Nokia's (NOK -2.6%) is likely to issue a Q2 warning in the next few weeks, writes RBC in a note that's pressuring shares. In addition to tough smartphone competition, the firm is worried about declining feature phone sales. Nokia's feature phone unit shipments fell 21% Y/Y in Q1 thanks to Android's low-end momentum, and its feature phone ASP fell 10% Q/Q and 15% Y/Y to just €28 ($36).
Comments (44)
  • RBC makes a livivng on trading fees, why not induce a panic, they have no proof, this should be libel
    30 May 2013, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • looks like a buying opportunity to me.
    Yes feature phone sales fell last quarter. that wasn't sufficient for NOK to issue a warning last quarter. Unless we have another disastrous fall in feature phone sales, we won't get one in this quarter. Even with a modest decline in feature phone sales, i believe this will be offset by smartphone sale increases.
    30 May 2013, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • I agree Abu.
    I think the decline in feature phone sales is not to news to anyone following Nokia. I personally happen to believe the new Asha's will however slow the decline, and the new Lumias will increase smartphone sales, so I see a positive surprise in July.
    30 May 2013, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • Same as shorting imo. Illegal thievery !
    30 May 2013, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • This forecast/speculation is a joke, RBC should concentrate on analysis of research they may or should do first hand. This seems like they a voicing an opinion based on headlines that may or may not be completely factual. Maybe, RBC should focus on Canada and try to add value for their clients in areas they are likely more informed.
    30 May 2013, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • For a related Stocktalk and details, please see here:
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    In short, this does not make sense, as RBC's -3% op margin prediction for D&S is still within Nokia's own -2% +- 4% guidance, i.e. there is no need for profit warning even if RBC were right (which they are not IMO)...
    30 May 2013, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • Very good info Sepo, thank you!
    30 May 2013, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • Seppo, here is my follow up tying RBC's in-bedness with BlackBerry with their slam of Nokia. http://seekingalpha.co...
    30 May 2013, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • Might just be an attempt to drive price down before Q2 earnings release to buy some cheap stock
    30 May 2013, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • Strange and misleading report.
    30 May 2013, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • This is opportunity to add some cheap Nokia stock!
    30 May 2013, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • Q2 will be the final quarter where naysayers can punish Nokia. Q3 forward will produce results with the full line of Lumia phones finally being available across major US carriers and equally importantly, the impressive Asha 501 rolling out in full production in India and Asia. One might sell now in panic then be faced with re-purchase later @ $5.00/sh. Hmmm...

     

    All the very best,
    Don
    30 May 2013, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • Maybe RBC got into a bind when Nokia didn't go bankrupt and now their doing whatever they can to exit bad positions with as little damage as possible.

     

    Long Nokia
    30 May 2013, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • A profit warning before the end of the quarter? This makes perfect sense.
    30 May 2013, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • Most of this article is based on old data !!!
    And it worked for today if They were Short.
    In order to know what direction the company is going we need to see Q2 results.
    I added to my position @ 3.51. 5:30.13, 7:35am AKT
    I remain long.
    30 May 2013, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • If this is based on Canadian numbers, then thats no surprise, NOK has never sold many windows phones in Canada, and they still have a while in the quarter left. Smells like stock manipulation and a possible chance to buy in a little lower, had been seeing a lot of support around 3.60
    30 May 2013, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • What's RBC's interest in BlackBerry I wonder?

     

    "Royal Bank of Canada Launching Mobile Payments System" http://bit.ly/16sJDSA

     

    (On BlackBerry in case you haven't guessed.)
    30 May 2013, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • Hmmm, nothing to do with Blackberry being a Canadian firm vying for thirds place is it...

     

    Dump WP8 and get on the Android badwagon, WP8 is clunky n ugly, it tried, its failed.

     

    long nokia (at a loss)
    30 May 2013, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • Do you even own a WP8 device ? I have a Lumia 928 and WP8 is a great OS....fast, intuitive and extremely functional.
    30 May 2013, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • @asttjgroom
    I do not know who you are but this is an ivestment site that does not take kindly to bashers or pumpers. I have tried all the major smartphone operating systems and WP8 is the one I use every day. In the spirit of full disclosure I have two daughters who drank the AAPL kool-aid and persist in using Iphone 5. My phone experience with Android was mixed but I found it was not nearly as business friendly as WP8 for me. I happen to be long NOK but I will use whatever phone that works best. For now that is a 920.
    30 May 2013, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • SOrry, Nokia is staying with MSFT. Dump your shares and leave us alone...
    30 May 2013, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • likewise, got my lumia 920 last week and cannot get it away from my wife, who loves it and says it can replace her cherished kindle fire and adds cell service. Also likes windows 8 on church PC where she is asst. sec. and does real work! Guess I will soon upgrade from XP too.
    30 May 2013, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • RBC is a Canadian bank and a BBRY cheerleaders, trying hard to push their stock up. Also, their predicted sales numbers as good as a Crystal ball thing. It is too early to say what the Q2 sales will be, if NOK still has 1 month of sales to make. So sales can go any direction from now.
    30 May 2013, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • I didn't realize that Ralph McTell worked for RBC.

     

    This is "Yesterday's papers, telling yesterday's news"
    30 May 2013, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • Lets get the third shift going in the Vietnam plant. Better yet 24/7. Need to prove to the world that Nokia is going to be King again.
    30 May 2013, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • good time to buy more NOK it going to $6
    30 May 2013, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • NOKIA should sue RBC for LIBEL
    30 May 2013, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • A Bear article just days before either comscore or kantar release an updated info about Q2 numbers.
    30 May 2013, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • Good point :)
    30 May 2013, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • Let's put things into the proper perspective:

     

    I'll bring this up hear "again" because it is relevant, when large cap stocks find themselves still trading on a major exchange at under $5 it attracts a "crowd" that likes to trade the OTC but based on the low price per/share, they can now swing on the big-boards, the tactics you're seeing are classic OTC "spin".

     

    What about the reports that Samsung just stole "home court" from Nokia...

     

    "Samsung Outsells Nokia in Finland"
    http://bit.ly/118w99S

     

    ...well, this would be relevant if it were an outlier, but haven't we already seen this everywhere else?

     

    ...like the U.S....

     

    New Smartphone Market Share Data Released for 2013 - Android is Up and iOS is Down http://bit.ly/15fI8TH

     

    ...and FREAKING CANDA...

     

    comScore: Android now has 40% smartphone market share in Canada (BBRY 20%) http://bit.ly/WHoP5J776

     

    ...clearly this is a testament to the strength of Samsung (don't make this about Android, that's a mistake)...

     

    ...but before we completely trust Samsung dominance of Android's market share as a gauge of consumer love of Android, you may want to look at why Samsung is so dominant inside of the Android ecosystem in the first place...

     

    Samsung admits to posting fake user reviews on the web http://bit.ly/11vJtnx

     

    "PC Advisor points out that Samsung has not yet received anything from Taiwan’s FTC but admit that the “unfortunate incident” did happen. In a statement released on the matter, Samsung said they have ceased all marketing activities that involve the posting of anonymous comments. Furthermore, the company said they adhere to transparent and honest communications with consumers and will work to prevent it from happening again in the future.

     

    HTC said they wouldn’t rule out taking appropriate action to protect their consumers and the company but perhaps the bigger issue here is this: if Samsung has been using these tactics against HTC, are they also engaged in similar marketing techniques with other rivals?"

     

    ...This is what Nokia would face "in-house" with Android as their OS up against Samsung, MSFT can combat this, Nokia cannot afford to while trying to make devices, manage production and keep an eye on markets and customers (which is why HTC can't make a dent against Samsung)...

     

    Let’s be clear, Finland was one of the last places where Android had not taken over, Nokia held home turf longer than U.S. or Canada; to me that is a testament to the strength of Nokia not any weakness.

     

    ...Now let’s get to RBC (Royal "FREAKING" Bank of CANADA) who thinks that Nokia is going to come out with a "warning" before earnings season to bring in expectations due to competition and lagging feature phones. Really! Seriously!!! How about the fact that none of the charts data or indicators coming from anywhere have anything bullish to say about BBRY? Why not write about that?

     

    Look, this is OTC tactics 101, shorts want the price to come in so they can adjust their shorts ahead of earnings that's what's behind the negative spin on all the recent articles. As for RBC, they just need to make fees off of the volume moves "in-house" as clients sitting on cheap (shorts) will take advantage of an opportunity to buy back and cover some of the position and (longs) won't get to comfortable "holding" and will either "add" on the dip or be "shaken out" by the scare tactic.

     

    Don't listen to RBC do your own homework, buy, sell, hold or short, it's a market and shorts don't scare me that's what makes a market. RBC can’t scare me because I don't trust Analysts or Brokerages to pick my stocks or change my mind. I don't buy or sell based on headlines I use them to gauge sentiment for my contrarian trades, and what the headlines reveal is that being a contrarian on NOK still has merit because the negative bashers have not capitulated, yet!
    30 May 2013, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • Excellent fresh post E. Very interesting perspective.

     

    Long Nokia
    30 May 2013, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • Nokia Lumia 920, best smartphone I have used- includes Samsung Galaxy (felt cheap and incomplete with millions of useless apps), iphone ( iTunes store useless in the Middle East) .
    Have just purchased Microsoft Surface Pro as well- great combination
    30 May 2013, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • EXELLENT comment ewmpsi

     

    Thank you
    30 May 2013, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • Ditto!!
    30 May 2013, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • We already know this, except for the emotional word "WARING!" As a unemoitonal investor/trader I smiled at this.

     

    For this is all you need to know: "We’re waiting on an official comment from Nokia, and will update when we know more."

     

    In the mean time they use the WARNING word. lol.
    30 May 2013, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • RBC = Really Bad Conjecture
    30 May 2013, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • The sales of Samsung, notably the GS4 are to distribution channels , not to customers . If I am a retailler have 50 lumia 920 in stock and plan to sell 70 I will order 20 , if I have 10 GS4 and plan to sell 50 I will order 40 so samsung get better sales . But , if everything goes smooth , at the end of the day my sales of 920 to customers are 70 units while those of GS4 are only 50 .
    As for Finland here is the real situation with customers

     

    http://bit.ly/12jVLnm

     

    Nokia is first , Apple is second .
    30 May 2013, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • The articles discussing Samsung having a larger pie in Finland is outdated to say the least and outright lies and manipulation at its worst. Take a look at the info on this Statcounter link and tell me that Nokia has not taken back the crown from Android and Samsung immediately in Q2.
    http://bit.ly/19s7Rv3

     

    Rehashing old info and using scare tactics is a disservice to the investors by RBC. The conjecture is based on old and stale info and harms uninformed small investors who may not have the time to fully analyze the current developments.

     

    I think we can all say that WP8 and Lumia are synonymous. İn fact, Lumia share keeps increasing within WP8. Worlwide share of WP is up from 1.19% in Mar 2013 to 1.33% as of May 2013, an increase of nearly 12% in market share.
    http://bit.ly/1aHay9T

     

    The gains came despite the fact that Nokia still has supply issues and has not rounded out their smartphone portfolio going into Q2.

     

    I follow statcounter because I am tired of constantly rehashing old numbers. What will win the race at the end of the day is to be more accurate in predicting the future outcome. In my opinion the future for Nokia looks much brighter with each passing day.

     

    I am strongly believe in the msft, intc, and nok trio.
    31 May 2013, 04:22 AM Reply Like
  • I wanted a 928...in red, or yellow, or green, or blue, but NOT Black or White.

     

    Feel betrayed.

     

    Now I'll have to wait until fall or winter or next year to upgrade by Verizon phone. I WANT COLORS!

     

    Maybe longer in Nokia keeps dropping the ball.
    31 May 2013, 06:11 AM Reply Like
  • Here's a link to a Finnish retailer (€230million turnover) showing return rates that shows Lumias have some of the lowest return rates out there, proving the RBC comments are completely bogus.

     

    http://bit.ly/10WKuTI

     

    Return rates:
    iPhone 5 32GB – White 7.91%
    Samsung Galaxy S 4 – White 2.31%
    Nokia Lumia 920 – White 0.89%
    5 Jun 2013, 02:50 AM Reply Like
  • i went into best by greenvile,sc no lumias on display, soon as i walked in area salesman says" you want to see the samsung G4?? not good
    5 Jun 2013, 08:08 AM Reply Like
  • the retail world does not want MS and nokia to succeed for some "strange" reason. I walked into Microcenter when the RT came out and asked a salesman what he thought about the RT and his first reply was why are you not looking for an Ipad. I told him because I like everything but Apple, so what can you tell me about this new tablet from MS. The only thing he told me was: This "thing" in desktop mode is really hard to hit the close (x)in the corner.. These devices are not made for touch...

     

    WHAT an A...l. but, he was young and totally integrated in the Iworld I did not even blame him but it is a fight MS and OEm's are about to win...I takes time but the products are great and will speak for themselves

     

    Time......

     

    Long NOK is my plan (just started)
    6 Jun 2013, 09:04 PM Reply Like
  • There's a saying. It goes:

     

    "Whose bread you eat, his song you sing."

     

    In the words of a market: iPads outsell Surfaces by a factor of at least 20. For the retail store it doesn't matter if it's a good or bad device, people just buy the stuff. And because you know people buy it, you want them to buy it at your shop, otherwise, you miss sales. Therefore, you train you staff to push the product hardcore so the consumers don't secondguess, they don't take time to decide and order online etc.

     

    Training staff costs time and money. Time and money that wouldn't recoup with Surfaces at the moment. Also, from a marketing point of view, it's always easier to sell stuff that you absolutely believe in. Therefore, once you brainwash your staff to absolutely believe in iPads, you can't do the same with Surface. Why? It would give consumers an option, they would wonder which of those 2 great devices to get, probably go home to think about it and probably visit another store to get a different opinion. There, a brainwashed salesperson would totally bash one of the products and call the other a divine device resulting in a lost sale for your store.

     

    The retailers probably know that W8 tablets are great products, they just don't want to be the pioneers of promotion and lose sales just to increase MSFT's market share. Why would they. They are in the business for profit.

     

    W8Pro + RT tablets will have to get at least a reasonable market share through MSFT direct sales and online sales before retailers even consider retraining their staff to push the products. Final point: Even if the sales guy has a Surface at home, store sales regulation probably bans him from promoting the officially preselected stuff.
    7 Jun 2013, 07:48 AM Reply Like
  • Tnx Drake,

     

    Of course you are right. I personally am different. I love to be helped by a sales person that tries to find out what I really want and need. That's the store I go back to but I know the majority of people follow trends and therefore are not interested in what really matters.

     

    To bad they many times miss out on great stuff. Your explanation also shows why MS used only their website, bestbuy, staples and their own stores for the launch of RT and PRO devices

     

    Tnx for your input

     

    regards
    t
    7 Jun 2013, 11:26 AM Reply Like
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