Seeking Alpha

"It's hard to believe that the greatest bond bull market in history will end without some...

"It's hard to believe that the greatest bond bull market in history will end without some bloodshed," writes BAML chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett. "Risks of a bond crash are high." He notes major breakouts to the upside in equity markets often coincide with "major inflection points in bond yields." Treasurys this morning are taking a breather from recent losses, the 10-year yield off 4 bps to 2.07%. TLT +0.5% premarket.
Comments (6)
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4150) | Send Message
     
    Here is how we are trying to take advantage of this opportunity:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    31 May 2013, 07:18 AM Reply Like
  • Zeus2012
    , contributor
    Comments (697) | Send Message
     
    The rise in bond yield is a matter of "when" and not "if".

     

    However, think the recent panic is kind of overdone. I don't see the bond yield shooting up significantly anytime soon as there's no sign of inflation issues and the economy is just not that robust currently.

     

    In addition, we are seeing deflation in Europe, Japan and a slowdown in China. Thus, would not jump the gun on this.
    31 May 2013, 07:22 AM Reply Like
  • tom_t
    , contributor
    Comments (269) | Send Message
     
    Agreed. There has been more than one occasion over the past year or so where the rate "zoomed" over 2 percent, and everyone proclaimed that the bond bubble was finally bursting -- only to see rates drop back down. Not sure if there's any good reason to believe that this time is different, based on what you said.
    31 May 2013, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • Joe2922
    , contributor
    Comments (409) | Send Message
     
    El Erian expects them to stay in a trading range (Pimco), and Steve Puetz of Universal Cycle Theory thinks rising rates will punish stocks, his cycles forecast (which hasn't worked well past 2 years due to massive QE manipulations) says the Bull run ends in June at the latest. A reknowned market analyst (Marketocracy Master) says sell soon before June swoon, his target to sell is next week:
    http://bit.ly/WpVqYk
    31 May 2013, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • The EconomicJoker
    , contributor
    Comments (961) | Send Message
     
    QE just simply can't end.. this tapering talk is BS as well. This is just a blip.
    31 May 2013, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • june1234
    , contributor
    Comments (2556) | Send Message
     
    Its a perception issue. REITs are giving you a preview of what investors are going to do with all that debt out there they're been buying last 5 years once the Fed pulls out or as one Fed member called it "investor overreaction". Numbers just aren't good enough for Fed to pull out now.
    31 May 2013, 01:09 PM Reply Like
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)
ETF Tools
Find the right ETFs for your portfolio:
Seeking Alpha's new ETF Hub
ETF Investment Guide:
Table of Contents | One Page Summary
Read about different ETF Asset Classes:
ETF Selector

Next headline on your portfolio:

|