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The parallels between events unfolding today and those which brought upon "The Long Depression"...

The parallels between events unfolding today and those which brought upon "The Long Depression" of 1873 are facinating, says MarketWatch contributor Matthew Lynn. Cheap money, banking de-regulation and an ill-fated attempt to merge European currencies in the late 19th century created a bubble that, when it burst, brought about an economic collapse that lasted an epic twenty-three years. Past as prelude, perhaps?
Comments (18)
  • bearfund
    , contributor
    Comments (1534) | Send Message
     
    An interesting thesis, but why not start in 2000? If you were to price things in gold, as everyone did in 1873, that was the top for just about everything, not 2008. And it's easy to make the case that a lot of the lead-up to the current long depression took place in the 1990s; what has occurred in the last 10 years was more effect than cause.
    14 Dec 2011, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • Native Texan
    , contributor
    Comments (-724) | Send Message
     
    I thought everything was Bush's fault?
    14 Dec 2011, 07:42 PM Reply Like
  • bearfund
    , contributor
    Comments (1534) | Send Message
     
    The last US president who understood banking and finance was Jackson. Dumb as he was, singling out Bush seems petty and political.

     

    At any rate, I would forgive Texas for Bush if you'd give us Dr. Paul for 4 years. He understands the problem in exactly the same way Jackson did.
    14 Dec 2011, 08:22 PM Reply Like
  • D_Virginia
    , contributor
    Comments (2280) | Send Message
     
    I'd take Ron Paul.

     

    But I still can't forgive Texas for Bush. And now for Perry. Yikes, WHAT is in the water down there? :)
    14 Dec 2011, 09:14 PM Reply Like
  • Mike Maher
    , contributor
    Comments (2482) | Send Message
     
    The environmentalists would tell you its the fracking fluids.
    14 Dec 2011, 09:27 PM Reply Like
  • anonymous#12
    , contributor
    Comments (552) | Send Message
     
    A quote and a proverb for those who still blame others:

     

    "All blame is a waste of time. No matter how much fault you find with another, and regardless of how much you blame him, it will not change you"...Wayne Dyer

     

    "Blame is a lazy man's wages"....

     

    It is not time for division, it is time for Americans to unite. To face the problems and search for solutions.
    14 Dec 2011, 09:46 PM Reply Like
  • wz235
    , contributor
    Comments (0) | Send Message
     
    They're right.
    15 Dec 2011, 12:05 AM Reply Like
  • Mike Maher
    , contributor
    Comments (2482) | Send Message
     
    I've yet to hear a reasonable explanation of how water, sand, and chemicals injected 14,000 feet below the ground gets into the aquifers 2,000 feet below the ground. I'm more concerned about all the oil and chemicals that run off our streets into our streams and rivers than I am about fracking fluids.
    15 Dec 2011, 12:36 AM Reply Like
  • bkpark
    , contributor
    Comments (325) | Send Message
     
    It might have something to do with the fact that the exact composition of fracking fluid is a trade secret.

     

    Greenies are like many superstitious people before them: they fear what they do not know (sometimes they are justified after the fact, but more often than not, they are an impediment to progress).
    15 Dec 2011, 01:11 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12726) | Send Message
     
    Why not go back to the Dark Ages, when many labored in ignorance. There's certainly lots of ignorance these days, and, heck, the Dark Ages lasted hundreds of years, so that sounds much more ominous than 23 measly years.

     

    Much more dramatic, don't you think?
    14 Dec 2011, 07:34 PM Reply Like
  • anonymous#12
    , contributor
    Comments (552) | Send Message
     
    Tack, while I agree that people get too dramatic, you have to accept that global growth is slowing down and it is going to get worse.

     

    And no the world isn't going to end, but equities can go much lower.
    14 Dec 2011, 08:13 PM Reply Like
  • Min Ren
    , contributor
    Comments (34) | Send Message
     
    I care not whether things will last hundreds of years. I only know that 23 years is a lot of my lifetime.
    15 Dec 2011, 07:20 AM Reply Like
  • TomasViewPoint
    , contributor
    Comments (4845) | Send Message
     
    Actually a better study is to look at cases where excessive debt eventually triggered economic malaise and failure. That is true in every century and is an extremely difficult economic force to manage.

     

    Better yet just look at your own family and the experience of anyone with excess debt. It is not pretty.
    14 Dec 2011, 07:54 PM Reply Like
  • Ray Lopez
    , contributor
    Comments (1508) | Send Message
     
    http://seekingalpha.co... For a counterpoint.

     

    The author makes a good case (which I don't buy) that Keynesian economics will save Japan--and that their malaise will soon end--about 20 years after it started. So 20 years plus the year 2000 (when the Bubble burst) equals 2020--the year the US crisis will start to end.

     

    Of course we'll wait and see--I predict collapse before then--and by then we'll know since as we know 2020 is perfect hindsight.
    14 Dec 2011, 07:59 PM Reply Like
  • Native Texan
    , contributor
    Comments (-724) | Send Message
     
    By then, we'll all be using SDR's.
    14 Dec 2011, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • deercreekvols
    , contributor
    Comments (5145) | Send Message
     
    1873?
    Now that is going back in history to prove (?) a point!
    How much did the events in the ten years prior to 1873 lead to "The Long Depression"?
    Hope Matthew Lynn could shed some light on the economic conditions in the post Civil War years and how/if it contributed.
    14 Dec 2011, 08:11 PM Reply Like
  • The Sane Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (357) | Send Message
     
    The easy spread of information presumably could quicken the timeline of recovery. I mean we have a little more technology than we did in the 1870s...
    14 Dec 2011, 09:07 PM Reply Like
  • Mike Maher
    , contributor
    Comments (2482) | Send Message
     
    So now not even comparing things to the Great Depression is shocking enough to sell books? I can't wait for the "this is exactly like the Dutch Tulip Mania" thesis. I'm sure that one will be good.
    14 Dec 2011, 09:11 PM Reply Like
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