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Intel (INTC) might be a double in the next five years, writes Jack Hough in Barron's, as the...

Intel (INTC) might be a double in the next five years, writes Jack Hough in Barron's, as the company racks up market-share gains in tablet and smartphone chips, sees big demand for lucrative server chips, and PC sales stabilize. Then there's the company's capital spending-spree - it should cut manufacturing costs and allow more wins in high-end foundry contracts, including from Apple which has been forced to use Samsung for the work.
Comments (42)
  • TAS
    , contributor
    Comments (1890) | Send Message
     
    I predict anyone that puts hard earned money behind a five year prediction of a common stock by a news magazine will be 50% poorer in five years.
    1 Jun 2013, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • Michael Blair
    , contributor
    Comments (4486) | Send Message
     
    Right on. But Intel will double, and it is not likely to take 5 years.
    1 Jun 2013, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (824) | Send Message
     
    Michael Blair:

     

    Ditto!

     

    One of the most undervalued stock right now.

     

    Krustyman
    1 Jun 2013, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • WhispersofWisdom
    , contributor
    Comments (94) | Send Message
     
    Well...since 2000 it is down about 70% so I guess if it doubles that will bring it back to only about a 30% loss from the NASDAQ top.
    2 Jun 2013, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • WisPokerGuy
    , contributor
    Comments (746) | Send Message
     
    People have been predicting Intel will double for the LAST 5 years so I don't see any reason why people won't predict Intel will double for the NEXT 5 years.

     

    People who never learn from the past are doomed to repeat it.
    2 Jun 2013, 11:51 PM Reply Like
  • bhttsl
    , contributor
    Comments (443) | Send Message
     
    There are more precise predictions like $38 in 4 years. Just makes me laugh.
    3 Jun 2013, 01:19 AM Reply Like
  • Matt-Man
    , contributor
    Comments (506) | Send Message
     
    Yes, I also only recommend stocks that continuously go up. If one goes up and then crashes, it should not be considered as it is damaged goods and gained money is likely forged.

     

    Do you have other good strategies to share for investors?
    3 Jun 2013, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • markitos
    , contributor
    Comments (160) | Send Message
     
    I put hard earned money on INTC because it obvious to me they are industry leader and destined to win IC chip wars they choose to fight. INTC will double at most in two years when their leadership will become obvious to all.
    1 Jun 2013, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • elsrmp56
    , contributor
    Comments (176) | Send Message
     
    Double in 5 years is conservative IMHO
    1 Jun 2013, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • bluecat38
    , contributor
    Comments (10) | Send Message
     
    I have owned INTC since 2000 and hope you are correct that this may be the time for it to begin moving upward. I bought it at $27 ad have watched it stay around $20'mfor a long time. Sold most of it a tax loss. I will watch closely the shares I have retained.
    1 Jun 2013, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • WhispersofWisdom
    , contributor
    Comments (94) | Send Message
     
    http://yhoo.it/10hgyHd;c=

     

    The stock traded at $70 back then.
    2 Jun 2013, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • youngdividend
    , contributor
    Comments (38) | Send Message
     
    They said INTC couldn't do it, number one, yeah they knew it
    1 Jun 2013, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • Wanna
    , contributor
    Comments (556) | Send Message
     
    Definitely not a raging bull prediction. Double in five years (60 long quarters of earnings reports) then it is kinda slow, despite Haswell and every thing else in Intel's pipeline that is supposed to shatter the competition.
    1 Jun 2013, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • Rose_Colored_Glasses
    , contributor
    Comments (870) | Send Message
     
    I dunno Wanna - that's more than 14% annual growth for 5 consecutive years. The day I look down on that kind of performance - just pitch me in the ground for the dirt nap.
    1 Jun 2013, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • Ashraf Eassa
    , contributor
    Comments (8760) | Send Message
     
    Pretty sure I said this a little while back...

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    1 Jun 2013, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • valuetrade
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    Yo loved INTC at 27 last May, lets wait til it at least gets back there before celebrating.
    1 Jun 2013, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • Ashraf Eassa
    , contributor
    Comments (8760) | Send Message
     
    It's a good thing that I own it at $21.05 :)

     

    Now, your rude comment aside, I see that your profile states that you are a trader. I know it must be difficult for you to separate a long term investment thesis from short term trades, but you do realize that we are discussing the *thesis* and how others are (independently?) starting to see it, and not the trading action noise, right?
    1 Jun 2013, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • valuetrade
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    Sure "thesis's" are great but they don't make you money in the stock market. The most eloquent thesis is worthless if the price action doesn't match up. You've written a huge amount of bullish articles on INTC calling it a great value at prices much higher then its current price. You may be right but you have not been right yet. We shall see.
    1 Jun 2013, 10:36 PM Reply Like
  • Ashraf Eassa
    , contributor
    Comments (8760) | Send Message
     
    When you're discussing an investment horizon of 5 years, a few dollar move in either way doesn't really matter. Anybody who bought at $29 (a multi-year high) is still only down $5/share, and even then, selling calls on the way down + dividend will have gotten you more to even. Shares are up nicely YTD.

     

    Either my thesis that Intel gains massive mobile share + continues growing in servers + reinvigorates the PC plays out or it doesn't. If it does, then there is substantial upside (stock goes well north of $30), if it doesn't, then it continues to languish.

     

    The nice thing about Intel is that I'm paid to wait, and can reinvest the dividends until the thesis works out. If it doesn't then I sell. But you mistake my articles for trying to give short term price action predictions when I am thinking further ahead.

     

    The point is: I made this exact "call" a while ago, and am pleased that somebody else sees it. That was the whole point of my comment.
    1 Jun 2013, 10:44 PM Reply Like
  • bhttsl
    , contributor
    Comments (443) | Send Message
     
    It hasn't seen 30 since March 2004, so Barron's predicition is going to be a Black Swan.
    1 Jun 2013, 10:56 PM Reply Like
  • Wanna
    , contributor
    Comments (556) | Send Message
     
    I agree, just around a 20% drop in less than a year shouldn't bother anybody. Really now, really!
    2 Jun 2013, 06:33 AM Reply Like
  • beddy55
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    @Wanna...it will only be 20 quarters (60 months), and I tend to agree with the other posters that this stock will double in a shorter time period than that.
    1 Jun 2013, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • erblackiv
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    INTC double in 12 months or less. Everything going its way and we're in the early stages of tech bubble II.
    1 Jun 2013, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • Matt-Man
    , contributor
    Comments (506) | Send Message
     
    Provided that Baytrail is as good as shown this should be possible. Intel needs only to show competitive in fast growing mobile space and stock is set to double.

     

    Haswell data indicates that Intel has focused on mobile side, laptop buyers will love possibility of >8h usagetimes
    1 Jun 2013, 08:04 PM Reply Like
  • Justin Jaynes
    , contributor
    Comments (2873) | Send Message
     
    I'm seeing it go up - but not double in 12 months. With Bay Trail M/T launching at the end of the year, I'm guessing it'll be sometime after Airmont launches before we see those kinds of prices.
    1 Jun 2013, 10:25 PM Reply Like
  • Matt-Man
    , contributor
    Comments (506) | Send Message
     
    Today Intel is priced on secular downturn on its key market. When tide turns investors do not wait actual profits from mobile space but stock price will go with 'new Intel' that is taking part of secular mobile growth.

     

    Few key Android wins in Tablet and phone space should do it
    2 Jun 2013, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • bhttsl
    , contributor
    Comments (443) | Send Message
     
    I think you're right. Don't let Barron's or the Fanboys trap you.
    2 Jun 2013, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • Wanna
    , contributor
    Comments (556) | Send Message
     
    I'd be happy with 14% total return by the end of the year and then call it quits! Don't think it will hold up well in the next correction, let alone bear market, and this Haswell plus other tech promises looks like will take at least a year to bear fruit in terms of making a real impact in revenues, but I aint hanging around that long to see if it pans in, er, out...outta the pan and into my plate a year from now! Have been an investor since 1994, saw it go north of $100 (tech bubble darn you!) and thought the sky was the limit so I waited, and waited, and waited, waited so long that I would forget (tried to forget, more like it) that I owned shares until rudely brought back to the sad reality by them quaterly div reinvestment statements---what a fool, right?
    1 Jun 2013, 07:52 PM Reply Like
  • Chester the Income Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (373) | Send Message
     
    Whatever....I'm holding, reinvesting the dividends and really couldn't care less what it does in the short term. Like Rip Van Winkle, wake me up in 20 years...I'll say yes, it is compounding nicely then go right back to sleep....eventually I'll leave this compounding giant to my lucky heirs...
    1 Jun 2013, 11:02 PM Reply Like
  • patt2374
    , contributor
    Comments (529) | Send Message
     
    Buy Intel at current price and then do not look at it until November/December.
    I think you will be in for a very,very pleasant surprise all other economic factors being equal.
    1 Jun 2013, 11:25 PM Reply Like
  • pop362
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
     
    Out of 30 long positions on Friday, I had one in the green, albeit only slightly. Yes, good old INTC. Also long since 2000
    2 Jun 2013, 08:04 AM Reply Like
  • WhispersofWisdom
    , contributor
    Comments (94) | Send Message
     
    INTC is down more than 50% from 2000 levels.
    2 Jun 2013, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • Micah
    , contributor
    Comments (461) | Send Message
     
    Beyond the sex appeal of mobile and cloud - there is a very large refresh cycle of slow adopters who are still using Windows XP coming that will contribute to handsomely to the fortunes of Intel moving forward.

     

    According to this April 2013 WIkipedia (http://goo.gl/TGnf), 38.31% of the OS market is still using XP. These people will be forced to refresh by the end of 2014 due to support and security end-of-life by Microsoft.
    2 Jun 2013, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • johncworth
    , contributor
    Comments (420) | Send Message
     
    Other amazing predictions from Barrons:
    Stock market may be up or down in 5 years.
    2 Jun 2013, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • bhttsl
    , contributor
    Comments (443) | Send Message
     
    Barron's has become like the Wall Street Journal. The WSJ became like Fox News several years ago.
    2 Jun 2013, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • WhispersofWisdom
    , contributor
    Comments (94) | Send Message
     
    Good...then it will get close to even with what it was trading at in 2000.
    2 Jun 2013, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • Niners 4 Life!
    , contributor
    Comments (504) | Send Message
     
    You guys want to dream about it doubling? Great, I'm long too but how about we hit $30 first, before all of you salivate. I actually hope it goes below $20 again so I can buy more, and would be happy to see it hit $30. Historically, I think that's the best we can hope for unless, the HF's start pouring tens of millions into intc.
    3 Jun 2013, 02:16 AM Reply Like
  • Wanna
    , contributor
    Comments (556) | Send Message
     
    Nice one! As an aside, moving outta the way somewhat, IMHO, after having digested Intel's fits and starts and complete stops throughout the years, I can't stomach it any longer. If Haswell/Baytrail/whatever don't produce the dough, then it's no go.
    3 Jun 2013, 07:43 AM Reply Like
  • Wanna
    , contributor
    Comments (556) | Send Message
     
    Some folks call it being optimistic. Others are just positive. A few lean on hope. A group of good folks are just being patient, have been doing so for over a decade now. A person here and there is banking on promises made by Intel and others that Intel will revolutionize the industry. I've read that particular individuals---tech experts, investors, journalists, and those that fit neither category but want to be heard---just believe that since it's Intel The Mighty and none other, then for sure you can be optimistic, positive, hopeful, bank on promises made, just have to wait a tad longer, for we are about to be part of another revolution, and on the winning side, of course! May it finally happen.
    3 Jun 2013, 07:59 AM Reply Like
  • elsrmp56
    , contributor
    Comments (176) | Send Message
     
    Love hearing so many naysayers. Makes me even more confident the price will appreciate considerably over the next 5 years. Sure they were late to the mobile space but they are crushing the companies that were "Johnny on the Spot". The moat will become even larger, especially as they will consistently increase their dividend. IMHO
    3 Jun 2013, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • gt66gt
    , contributor
    Comments (39) | Send Message
     
    The total revenue for ARMH is 600 million. INTC is 53,000 million. If INTC atom took the whole Tablet market it would raise revenue by 1% and revenue would grow by 1% x 20% per year = 0.2% per year. I do not see the current concern for the tablet low-energy microprocessor market now. INTC needs the server market to grow which seems like it will with the new manufacturing capability.
    3 Jun 2013, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • Matt-Man
    , contributor
    Comments (506) | Send Message
     
    You are aware that ARM does not manufacture or sells chips, right? ARM designs ARM chips, Qualcomm/Nvidia/Mediat... integrates ARM designs with their own and produces chips in external party like TSMC or other foundry.

     

    All pay royalty to ARM few cents per CPU. Intel does job of ARM/Qualcomm and foundry. So comparing ARM revenue to an impact to Intel Atom business is not relevant.
    3 Jun 2013, 04:22 PM Reply Like
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