Seeking Alpha

Goldman Sachs' Jim O’Neill has two bold calls for currency markets in 2012: a 14% plunge...

Goldman Sachs' Jim O’Neill has two bold calls for currency markets in 2012: a 14% plunge in the Swiss franc vs. the euro and a nearly 30% surge in the dollar vs. the yen. Noting improved data on manufacturing and housing, O’Neill believes the U.S. economy could grow at 2.5% or even 3%, admitting his relatively upbeat call faces risks from "inept" European policy makers.
Comments (7)
  • W/15 Trillion in govt. debt, and 48 million on food stamps...it aint gonna happen... The 1.8% GDP in Q3 was virtually all goverment related. 0% growth in the private sector...Also the home market is going no where anytime soon...w/ 30yr fixed rate now 3.91%..and people still aren't buying...

     

    Gotta have a job to buy things....Its actually very simple logic.
    22 Dec 2011, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • Permabull O'Neill with his typical predictions. Is anybody except PIMCO going to venture out of the 2-3% GDP in 2012 camp? Economic prognosticators behave like such a herd it is amazing. They are so scared to venture too far away from consensus, so either everybody is right or everybody is wrong.
    22 Dec 2011, 07:12 PM Reply Like
  • US policies (politics) will continue to be tailored to keep inflation at bay, which generally means keep the economy in check via regulations, government oversight, and limit job growth.

     

    If inflation takes off the rich will get richer and the poor / middle class will get much poorer.... very bad for the party in power, and union shops.

     

    QE was designed to prevent deflation, government policies are designed to prevent inflation.... welcome to the new normal... so far I'm not a fan.
    22 Dec 2011, 07:20 PM Reply Like
  • Never will happen,but Jim knows that already.That is why he threw the European smokescreen into the mix.This way when he is wrong the blame can be put on the Greek taxi-driver who fails to pick enough fares in a week.
    22 Dec 2011, 08:56 PM Reply Like
  • It seems like the optimistic GDP prediction is at risk to another one of his predictions - a 30% dollar appreciation against the yen. Not sure how the nominal print would react to that sharp of a revaluation...
    22 Dec 2011, 10:40 PM Reply Like
  • If USD index goes above 90, you can bet all commodities will go to hell.
    22 Dec 2011, 11:24 PM Reply Like
  • Maybe some dollar appreciation, but not anywhere close to 30%.
    22 Dec 2011, 11:43 PM Reply Like
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)