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MC poll: What are your predictions for 2012? Which way will stocks go? What about oil and gold?...

MC poll: What are your predictions for 2012? Which way will stocks go? What about oil and gold? What will happen with the eurozone crisis, or U.S. unemployment? Any under-the-radar stocks or ETFs worth keeping an eye on?
Comments (98)
  • Bear year
    26 Dec 2011, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • It is going to be a “great year”! Even though there will be slight improvement in Europe, Americans are sick of hearing about European problems, and will once again focus on the home front. This will lift sprits and markets will rise. The economic outlook in this country is not that bad, at least as bad as the “talking heads” try to report it for the sake of having something to say in front of the cameras. “People are spending money, and enjoying life.”


    Energy will lead the way, with natural gas production coming into the forefront; Chesapeake Energy (CHK) has a foothold in all energy positions such as land, production, and transport.


    Everyday use stocks such as coffee will rise due to daily usage companies like Coffee holding Company (JVA), Starbucks (SBUX) and Caribou (CBOU) will be a profitable venture for both long & short positions.


    Have a great year, and “MAKE SOME MONEY”
    26 Dec 2011, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • Very bad. 2008H2 replay in 2012H1.
    26 Dec 2011, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • It would be nice to know why you feel this way.
    26 Dec 2011, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • I don't know but prepare for some major mayhems, both up and down.
    26 Dec 2011, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • My "guess" is the market finishes higher in 2012, I believe the economy is improving slowly and will continue to do so, get Europe out of the news the US market moves higher.


    Energy will be a good sector next year, although natural gas prices will remain low in the US. Oil goes higher for multiple reasons, geo-political risks (Iran) and improving world economies. I have felt gold has been in a bubble for over a year, so I don't see it going higher.


    I am a slow and steady investor so I don't have any "hot" stock picks, I will stick with my MCD, KO and others.


    Obama will be re-elected in a very close race, mostly due to the Republicans not having a strong candidate. Republicans maintain control of the House and the Senate becomes split 50/50.
    26 Dec 2011, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • US will lead the world in best stock market,gains will be small and big ups and downs weekly. Look for late summer rally as President Obama leads in national polls. Watch out for market moving news from middle-east.
    26 Dec 2011, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • If Obama is reelected, markets will tank by year end.
    26 Dec 2011, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • President Obama has doubled US stock markets value with his time in office, from the severe recession of W. Bush and the trillions in borrowed war costs.
    26 Dec 2011, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • WOW, Are you like the Main Stream News Media and acting like an ARM of the DNC?
    1st. Barney Frank and Chris Dodd along with the Democrats seeking to win the 08 election cycle killed a world economy though the Banking Committees they chaired in the Congress and Senate. This is a common fact and posted all over you tube you can find the video to prove it.
    2nd. Wars. If Dumbocrat Voters will NOT allow Americans to drill for the vast oceans of oil here. We will fight wars over there. Energy drives our economy.
    3rd. US Stock Markets are driven by money stolen from the the few who pay the taxes in the USA or borrowed from other Countries such as China and laundered though Banks such as Goldman Sach and JP Morgan via QE1 and QE2. It is a false market to make us all feel better about the Alinski take over by Aging Hippies as we are Nudged (Andy Stearns) into the Stone Age.
    26 Dec 2011, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • Elections have nothing to do with market returns, sorry to burst your bubble. I can show you tons of articles on the topic if you want.
    26 Dec 2011, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • Romney will win the nomination.


    Tea Partiers will have a fit.


    There will be a talk of Bachman/Palin Third Party ticket that will subside as quickly as either lady's campaign.


    Utlimately every GOP faction will go behind Romney.


    Obama will either eke out a narrow victory, or in a repeat of 2000 the uber partisan SCOTUS will award the Presidency to Romney.


    If Romney wins, the stock market will do worse than what would be possible under Obama, as the historical data convincingly demonstrates.


    If Obama wins, Boehner will lose the speaker-ship, and a batshit crazy tea party congressman will become the speaker, and the Congress will impeach Obama for breathing oxygen.
    26 Dec 2011, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • buckle up, it's going to be a roller coaster.
    26 Dec 2011, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • "Elections have nothing to do with market returns, sorry to burst your bubble. I can show you tons of articles on the topic if you want."


    Well, I think it's less about the election than who is elected and what they will be expected to do. Bush/Cheney is an excellent example of what happens to oil prices when two oil execs take over the White House and hold closed door discussions on the nation's energy policy.


    I think Obama is a market neutral pick, and Romney will be a positive for the market. I think his policies will result in a better America long-term.
    26 Dec 2011, 06:50 PM Reply Like
  • The moment a serious Republican contender wins the White House, that person will be able to just sneeze at Palin and that entire sorry episode started by McCain will just vanish. Good luck if they start a third party...they will need it.


    "If Obama wins, Boehner will lose the speaker-ship, and a batshit crazy tea party congressman will become the speaker, and the Congress will impeach Obama for breathing oxygen."


    Lotta truth to
    26 Dec 2011, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • It will fluctuate
    26 Dec 2011, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • If you still believe in this Ponzi it can go in any direction.
    26 Dec 2011, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • My guess is:
    - another volatile year for stocks. I think SPX will finish 2012 flat or a little higher
    - gold at $2000, oil at $120
    - European problem not solved, only temporarily patched up


    Merry Christmas btw :)
    26 Dec 2011, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • While debt continues to be purged from the system, volatility will continue to keep smaller investors out of stocks. Unlike many forecasts regarding foreign equities, emerging markets will remain in a quagmire of going no where fast. Alternatives to low fixed interest rates will remain elusive while traders continue to make most of the money in the financial market place. Precious metals will remain in a continued slump with some days of rampant volatility as European struggles persist. European circles will have round table discussions regarding a replacement to the Euro. Should their attempts fail to arrive at a consensus, the Euro fails. All global markets go into a deep downward spiral presenting the best stock buying opportunity in a lifetime. It's your call whether you consider this inevitable. Just remember that the worry and doubt this creates globally means stocks do very little unless one is very adept at trading and has the technology at hand to pull it off. Happy New Year!
    26 Dec 2011, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • I have no reason to think that 2012 will be any better then 2011 as the problems that we lived with in 2011 are still unsolved.
    In addition, the geopolitical situation is no better and may see signs of worsening.


    Given this, on the upside, things will be same old stuff (i.e. markets see sawing and ending flatish), and on the downside, a whole lot worse. I still see oil as the wild card that drive the markets either way given the level of crises we encounter.
    26 Dec 2011, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • I don't know how the bipolar maniacal market is going to react next year.


    But I am preparing for the demographic changes occurring, americans getting older, birth rates dropping.....and I would look to profit from it.
    26 Dec 2011, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • US 10 year end up at 3.25%
    S&P 500 ends the year flat at 1250
    Apple over $500/share at some point in 2012
    Euro stabilizes at 1.20 as they will be forced to print even more than the US.
    At least one financial system stability scare related to China
    Precious metals have a strong year
    Oil at $120
    Natural Gas rebounds to $5/MMcf as increased demand / reduced drilling drives up prices into the 2013 heating season.
    26 Dec 2011, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • I guess I am in the minority here in that I care less about how 'the market' does and more about how my neighborhood does in 2012.


    Regardless, lets see more honest discussion about finance, government, health care, and energy. Let's see more long term thinking that considers more than the latest stock price.


    In terms of energy, I am tired of seeing our demolished mountains go by on rail (that could carry passengers instead) to be shipped to China.


    I am in favor of nuclear power, as long as it is safely 93 million miles away.
    26 Dec 2011, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • I am looking forward to (OMEX) bringing up the silver from its latest find. I have a bottle of rum reserved for the celebration.
    26 Dec 2011, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • OK, Maybe at 50 years old the world has passed me by. Folks work their entire lives and the Gov. kills the dollar along with the value of a retirements buying power and no one seems to care? Water taken over in the name of the EPA as 3rd generation farmers in California have to go to food banks because their (our) Government will not give them water because of a bait fish?
    We have the US Gov. at war with Fishermen to the point where those who regulate them have to take ethics classes?
    A Dow screaming to go to 5600 as our Government borrows Trillions to pump 4.5 Billion a day into the Markets at 11:15 West Coast Time though the old time stand by favorite Goldman Sachs on the days the Financial ETFs threaten to move below support.
    Communist China more Capitalistic then Obummer, the Democrats and the RINOs waiting with open arms to receive what is left of American Manufacturing. A Consumer driven economy dependent on people who have stopped paying their Mortgage payments. I could spend the rest of the day writing reasons this economy should tank. In the end as long as the US Gov. has money to steal from those who still have some to support this Ponzi Scheme they have going with the Banks and the voters selling their votes on the Cheap. Who knows how long into the future we can ride this thing.
    26 Dec 2011, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • So much cash on sidelines from fund managers protecting clients from Lehman event. Europe muddles through. Gold, bond, and div stock bubble burst all piling into equities. Market hits all time high, forming the biggest bubble of all time. Articles on SA wondering if stocks worth buying at such high valuations.
    26 Dec 2011, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • Fading Europe hysteria. Improving economy. Increasing employment. Continuing improvement in the housing sector, just starting now. By year end, bank stocks to be best performing sector in terms of percentage increase, followed by home builders, commercial real estate and energy.
    26 Dec 2011, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting thoughts seeing how the Department of Real Estate could not even count the number of homes sold and missed by millions. Bank Stocks propped up by money borrowed to be repaid by future generations should the rest of the world see the USA as to big to fail. QE1 and QE2 are running out. Will the rest of the world loan us a QE3?
    26 Dec 2011, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • Get:


    QE ended last summer and was never the primary driver of the economy in the first place, despite all the endless politically-based critique. Since then, the economic numbers have only gotten stronger -- corporate revenues and profits at all-time highs, cash positions are massive, consumer credit as percent of GDP is at best levels in decades, and employment keeps increasing -- but many prefer to philosophically whine and moan, rather than examine what's really going on.


    If one wishes to make above-average gains in the next year, now's the time to increase positions in the unloved sectors. As usual, those focusing on constant forecasts of doom will be left perplexed as to why the world didn't end and how progress could possibly occur.


    Pessimism is a very destructive sentiment to maintain for extended periods, when investing.
    26 Dec 2011, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • Get- You said "the Department of Real Estate could not even count the number of homes sold and missed by millions"


    yes they did, thank goodness what they estimated didnt make any difference to the housing market.


    You Said " should the rest of the world see the USA as to big to fail"


    yes they should and they do, like it or not they are tied to our hip, so goes the US goes the rest of the world.


    You said " Will the rest of the world loan us a QE3? "


    If necessary,Yes they will. The USA represents almost 25% of the worlds GDP, they need us
    26 Dec 2011, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • Tack, Really? Where did all of the money go?
    Who comes in at the end of the day 2:15 East Coast time and props up the markets buying 4 to 7 million shares of XLF a minute? That is ONLY XLF. They have to prop up SMH also to move the SPY. Then you have the other Financials. Who has access to 4.5 Billion Dollars to pump into a market over a period of minutes as a market is going down, down down? The Money Managers buying IBM are not doing it. They do the same thing I do and wait for the Fed to give the all is clear. The speculators at IWM are not the ones making these buys. Who do you think is doing it and when do you think they will run out of the Stimulas $$. Which brings me to another point. When Obummer and pals said we need stimulas now and there is no time to read the bills. He did not say it was to pump into the Fed so Banks could borrow at ZERO percent interest and speculate on Wallstreet. What happened's when the American people wake up and see how they have been scammed?
    26 Dec 2011, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • Get:


    What you are seeing is the statistical effect of HFT roundtrip trading, not the massive "buying" of anything.
    26 Dec 2011, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • I figure lots of predictions is best. People will forget the ones I get wrong and marvel over the rest.
    Alan Cox
    26 Dec 2011, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • 2012 may be awful but it may be the best for quite a while. A host of internal and external factors will create chaos. Obama will be re-elected in the filthiest, costliest, and fraud-ridden elections in history. The Soros let Occupiers will create a mess by disrupting campaign events and destroying conventions in Chicago, Charlotte and mostly Tampa. China and especially Russia will see the Occupiers as a sign of weakness and who knows what they will do. And 2013 will begin the process of secession. The right will finally figure out the it is impossible to live in the same country as the left and a secession will happen. Hopefully it will be ballots and not bullets. Buy real estate and investments in the seceeding states. NYSE move to Dallas? Can't see it remaining in Socialist NYC.
    26 Dec 2011, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • You are right, the extreme right wants to turn US into a Iran type religious government.
    26 Dec 2011, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • Auh, Where does that even come from? I think it was Biden who ONLY last week said the Taliban was not a foe.
    Might want to go to the dumpster behind the Whitehouse and find that silly Constitution thingy to fully understand conservatives. Geesh, Government Schools have done their intended job well huh Terry?
    26 Dec 2011, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • "Auh, Where does that even come from?"


    I'll tell you. I like Romney. I think he's a moderate, an outstanding citizen, a good family man, a successful businessman. I would have voted for him as either POTUS or VP in 2008. But, the Republican Party began foaming at the mouth about Barack HUSSEIN Obama, that b*tch of a candidate (according to Gingrich's mother), and that Mormon candidate. McCain forgot he was trying to run a credible campaign, and now we have to deal with Caribou Barbie until she is no longer the hottest MILF to ever run for office.


    The Republican Party is infected by cancerous neocon parasites. It distorts their message, and corrupts the party line to a degree that makes it un-electable by the general public. They have to resort to the basest of conservative values and by doing so they alienate any moderate conservative who would otherwise support their party.
    26 Dec 2011, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • And the mainstream democrats want to turn America into a Godless, welfare country.
    26 Dec 2011, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • Do you know what a moderate is? Are there only two kinds of people on your planet, "Godless, welfare" subscribers, or Bible thumping theocrats?
    26 Dec 2011, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • Scared for the future of my country but hopefull the new one will be better than the one we leave behind.
    26 Dec 2011, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • My Hope: The Republicans win the senate and the white house and move the country back to a smaller government.


    My Fear: The Democrats win the house and re-elect Obama and move the country to an even bigger government with even larger debt.


    My Guess: Neither the Democrats or Republicans win control and we continue with gridlock.
    26 Dec 2011, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • blue:


    In which case happiness abounds because neither party is any longer the party of small government and both have shown blatant disregard for sound fiscal policies when empowered to pass their agendas. The very best thing would be lots of acrimonious blathering and passing not a single bill.
    26 Dec 2011, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • Because the Republicans did such a great job of moving toward a smaller government during W.
    26 Dec 2011, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • Tack, This might be a positive sign, we actually agree on something. lol
    26 Dec 2011, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    The very best thing would be lots of acrimonious blathering and passing not a single bill.
    Correct. Flying Dutchman does not need these bills
    26 Dec 2011, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • Blame Bush now and forever:-(
    26 Dec 2011, 09:16 PM Reply Like
  • Someone I know who liked W mentioned that he looked like a great guy to just sit down with a six pack and shoot the shit with. A guy like that is great in parties, but not in the White House, just like picturing Tim Geithner or Ben Bernanke playing for the Lakers...not gonna happen, unless you want the Lakers to be dead last.
    27 Dec 2011, 12:38 AM Reply Like
  • I see 2 possible scenarios, all centered around Europe and Washington:


    1) Europe resolves before Q2 through default and devaluation. Things will get worse there but all will agree that it will lead to a more sustainable future. Fed policy accommodates Europe. All eyes then turn to Washington, where Congress ruptures and Obama is unable to get them to reach a compromise, and Romney gets elected. Earnings are largely unaffected, but stocks become cheaper, commodities flatline and gold rises.


    2) Europe does not resolve itself before US elections. Obama and Congress distance themselves from the Eurozone and use it to scapegoat current economic problems. Obama gets re-elected , the scenario is set for some real mushroom-cloud crisis coming out of Europe, protectionism no longer is taboo. Earnings and stocks fall, commodities fall, gold continues to fall from lack of liquidity in Europe and perceived relative strength of the dollar.


    1) is some actual progress, whereas 2) is just kicking the can down the road.


    If Obama is somehow able to make all the political problems in Washington disappear before November, he will have earned my vote. However, I like what Romney has said about the economy, and think he's probably the best solution to America's problems today. I also think that whatever is brewing in Congress is beyond any one person's ability to control, and that both houses need to be thrown out of Capitol Hill.
    26 Dec 2011, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • S&P up 10-12%. Stocks are undervalued in comparison to interest rates and bonds. I would look at industrials like dow, financials like axp, defense names like noc and stable companies like pg, pm, duk ,kand finally spice some things up with some shares of nintendo
    26 Dec 2011, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • Politically, the United States continues to lack the will to address any of its structural problems. No one either on the right or the left wants to take on medicare or social security going into an election year. Eventually the United States is downgraded again by the time we get to August putting more pressure on the sitting incumbent and the candidate running beside him.


    The unthinkable happens.


    Rates rise.


    Not by much, but enough to cause real insecurity within the crowded bond market and a slow leak into equities emerges. Not substantial there either, but enough to take us higher.


    Counterintuitively, this actually causes housing to stabilize further as a rush into locking in rates creates urgency for both the real estate investor and the first time home owner. Again, counterintuitively, this also helps the banks. As rates rise, they expand their loan portfolios. Money begins to pick up velocity.


    While this occurs, jobs don't improve dramatically however. They don't get much worse either. New home starts don't take off even though they improve. Inventory merely gets soaked up and taken off the market.


    Oil continues to move higher. OPEC sensing the United State's domestic production potential, attempts to up its own supply to bring prices down to remove the incentive to produce by competitors. A kind of reverse embargo. It doesn't work. Prices are stubborn even with record levels of production by Canada and Mexico. The Americas are beginning to become the number one force for world oil. It is recognized politically that terrorism can be starved out of its funding and it becomes a frequent talking point which further puts pressure on more energy production at home. Meanwhile, meaningful job creation in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Oklahoma as well as Texas and North Dakota become an established trend. Almost all the current unemployed homebuilder framers, drywall installers, etc are replaced by oil service industry jobs.


    The politicians try to take credit for it even if it was purely a natural and inevitable extension of a market solution. This pairs wonderfully with troop draw downs overseas. There are problems much worse than anyone realized in both Iraq and Afghanistan as the violence picks up throughout the year, but most Americans are tired of hearing about it and no longer care.


    Iran acts as a put under the price of oil, keeping a floor of $100/brrl firmly underneath it. Oil flirts within a range of $100 to $120 throughout the year but doesn't affect the consumer. We have gotten used to the new cost and it is no longer a media talking point.


    No huge inflationary spikes yet even though money velocity picks up. That's for later, another year down the road. But it will. Just not in 2012. Thankfully there is no domestic QE3 which would have put us in such territory even if Europe does eventually embrace their own version. However, the market likes Europe's solution. Germany and France become the head of the European coalition to tamp down debt and use austerity successfully as a stick and the carrot to the benefits of remaining in the Euro to entice discipline. There is a recognizable North/South relationship that has emerged with Germany and France putting Spain and Italy on notice whom they are successfully able to dictate terms to and win. Socialism is publicly denounced as a failure. The markets cheer the news, even if the United States doesn't take heed. At least not yet, as she looks for a real and true leader in the darkness of her own lost soul.


    Meanwhile, China comes out of its slump and this puts more upward pressure on stocks, especially US multinationals. India looks robust towards the end of the year and Brazil begins huge infrastructure spending again which causes all the big industrials to move late into the year.
    26 Dec 2011, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • I like your rate increase hunch, but think the oil scenario has about 0% chance of coming about. Iran is not the put, China is the put. We're not leaving the Middle East even if we gush oil because if we do, China will take our place. Strategically this doesn't make sense.
    26 Dec 2011, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • WJ:


    Sounds very plausible. Think we'll see even more pick-up in housing than you may anticipate. Especially concur on effect of rising rates, which mirrors what I have said in many other threads.


    If all your projections come to pass, the market will move substantially higher. A lot higher, and banks stocks will take off.
    26 Dec 2011, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • Socialism is publicly denounced as a failure? Not in Europe...
    26 Dec 2011, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • "Think we'll see even more pick-up in housing than you may anticipate."


    Wonder if the pick-up will be in multi-family rather than single family. Population getting older. Some not interested in spending time and limited energy on landscaping. Nice travel homes to travel around to various locations in the country. Younger people with small families staying in the central city rather than the suburbs. All these trends are in place but hard to tell just how much they can change the macro situation.


    Economy will continue to improve (how much worse can it get) and prices and the market will go up to reflect a weakening dollar.
    26 Dec 2011, 09:27 PM Reply Like
  • Look at recent history, during W. Bush regime in Washington the US entered a severe recession and millions of jobs were lost and foreign war borrowing reached one trillion dollars,10's thousands of Americans were killed or disabled for life. President Obama has doubled the US stock market and retail sales are up,people finding jobs are up,wars are ending,Obama has added drilling and clean energy to increased job growth, company profits are at a record, taxes are low, etc.
    Why would anyone with normal intelligence ever vote for the GOP?
    26 Dec 2011, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • Because I don't consider Bush to have been a GOP candidate, but some sort of mutant zombie possessed by the Word of God who made us forget about Monica Lewinsky. Once in, 9/11 took care of the rest.
    26 Dec 2011, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • Bush = RINO or RNC Establishment. They suck almost as bad as Democrats do. See the Establishment fighting to get Romney in there? Just like Bush over Steve Forbes or McShamnesty and Bob Dole. We have not had a Conservative Government since Calvin Coolidge.
    26 Dec 2011, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • The Republican "establishment" is run by neocons, and they are fighting to get Romney OUT OF THERE. The Republicans don't like Romney, he's either too moderate, too Mormon, or just too damned clean for that cesspool of a party. They want someone like Huckabee bad, but America at large is not going to vote for a Bible thumper, so instead they just try to attack Romney on his conservative credentials the best they can.
    26 Dec 2011, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • "instead they just try to attack Romney on his conservative credentials the best they can".


    Romney is a Conservative? State run Health Care would be Euro-Socialist Lite at best. Bachmann the Tax Attorney is Conservative, Santorum is Conservative, Ron Paul on Constitutional Grounds would be of a Conservative bent and yes even Newt the Historian could make a Conservative argument. Romney is to the left side of JFK and is hands down a RINO only a little to the right side of Clinton after 1994 loss to Republicans in the Congress. Most people do not take into account Romneys religion because he has been so discredited before the religious issues are even accounted for.
    26 Dec 2011, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • You've just proven my point.


    I think you're still discounting that Romney is a moderate. I may not agree with his stance on health care, but being from California myself, I have to acknowledge that my definition of conservative would probably strike many in the Republican party as "the left side of JFK". To me that's a fault with the party, as states like California and Massachusetts hold a very large portion of the American electorate, and IMHO they are robbed of a credible conservative option.


    Regardless, Romney's religion was at the forefront in 2007 well before his politics were even debated. Polls were run specifically asking whether or not you would vote for a Mormon, and the answer was overwhelmingly no, not "yes if he was conservative", or "yes if he was Republican", or even "yes if he's not Mitt Romney," just "no". Add to that the constant rantings about Obama's supposed Muslim heritage, and you get a joke of a party, one resembling a dysfunctional theocracy than anything that could possibly exist even in the 19th century.
    26 Dec 2011, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • I am in Sacramento California and have lived all over this State from the time I was two years old. San Fransisco and LA are Anti-American, Anti-Capitalism, Anti-Individualism pro Marxist Collective. The rest of the State hates these A-holes and the only way to save California is to split the State into 3 or more parts with SF and LA left in the bed they have made for themselves. Otherwise States like Texas will have to come in a save California which will not happen.
    26 Dec 2011, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • I agree with you that California has its problems, but I don't think the Republican party in its current form is the solution. If by "Texas" you mean W., then we're just going to have to agree to disagree, and I'll pray that the Republican party doesn't put forth a bigger nutcase as their candidate 2012.
    26 Dec 2011, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • The Republican establishment is run by the same people who run the Democratic party, Washington insiders. Romney is not a conservative, I live in Massachusetts and can personally attest to that. He is compared to President Obama, but then again almost everybody is except Terry 330. What we neocons what is someone who is not a Washington insider, understands that Washington is the problem not the solution, and will tackle the issues facing the country with real solutions. Not pretending to cut spending, with no real cuts, just cuts in projected future spending. President Obama is the great pretender, I don't want another one of those. We (neocons) are looking for substance over style. Fool me once same on you, fool me twice shame of me.
    26 Dec 2011, 07:54 PM Reply Like
  • Health care aside, my understanding is that Romney is a fiscal conservative and a social moderate. What he said about housing is what this country needs. Cutting capital gains for the middle class is what this country needs. He seems rational, calm, and capable. He's one of the only candidates that has a long and stable family life. He knows business, which is a huge plus in my book. I don't see anyone better coming out of the Republican party. If Washington is as dysfunctional in Sep-Oct as it is right now, I will vote for a Romney ticket, even if he gets a "nucular" endorsement from W and has Palin as a running mate.


    "President Obama is the great pretender"


    What would W be then? I think W will be a stain on the party for a very, very long time. I'm just thankful that polls show that the country still remembers that Bush was primarily responsible for where we are today, and not Obama. I voted for Obama out of fear of what the Republican party was capable of doing after 8 years of W, especially after seeing who McCain picked for a running mate.


    I think Obama is a figurehead. In that sense, he is doing his job well - infinitely better than W. I haven't seen Angela Merkel fight off any groping attempts from Obama. I agree he hasn't reached over the aisle as much as other presidents, but I would also contend that there's simply not much sanity on the other side - something the Republicans themselves admit to regarding the Tea Party and Ron Paul. However, I can understand how someone will look at a figurehead and see a pretender. I don't think any credible candidate will be any different.
    26 Dec 2011, 08:34 PM Reply Like
  • Ricard: I agree with you that I don't see any credible candidates that will make a difference. Don't dislike Romney given the field. He is better than what we have now but I don't think Romney is what we need. We need a maverick, and I don't think that is Romney. To be honest I don't any maverick running in this race. The Tea Party is correct in that we must get federal spending under control. I like Ron Paul's ideas for limited goverment, but view his foreign policy as naïve and reckless. At the moment I don't see any candidate that is going to stop us from driving off the cliff. The only question is what candidate is going to give us the most time before we go off the cliff.
    26 Dec 2011, 11:08 PM Reply Like
  • Agree. I would have voted for a McCain Romney ticket - great combination of unconventional wisdom and rock-steady dependability. I got robbed in 2008 of a credible Republican platform - I simply could not believe that Romney was completely shut out of a POTUS or VP nomination - and to get Palin instead??


    Agree that the Tea Party has some good points regarding spending, but they simply do not approach their business in a constructive manner and seem to lack organization. I agree with Ron Paul in spirit but almost completely disagree with his solutions, like "end the Fed". Ron Paul would have made a great candidate 100 years ago, but I think America now needs to actively engage and can't go back in that sense.


    Cheers, here's to 2012.
    26 Dec 2011, 11:52 PM Reply Like
  • The world will not end in 2012. So I won't lose too much sleep as the market goes up and down. I'll keep investing my money into good solid companies that return cash to shareholders.


    In politics, Europe will drag on and on like a broken record as people come to grips with the idea of spending only what you take in. Obama is going to win re-election (its not an endorsement, just an observation). Congress will still be inept.


    Ron Paul will run as a third party candidate and although he loses, he captures about 15% of the vote as more and more people realize that economic freedom, personal liberties, etc are more important that the next social spending program. And he sets the stage for a candidate in 2016 that is truly fiscally conservative, willing to cut defense and our military footprint in the world, willing to gut our big brother government, and willing to tell people that they are primarily responsible for themselves and their communities.


    I still like (PEI) and (CBL) in 2011. (BSX) gets bought by someone.


    In more important matters, the Steelers get healthy in time for the playoffs and this year close the deal with their 7th Super Bowl victory!!!


    Happy holidays to everyone and best wishes for a Happy New Year!
    26 Dec 2011, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • 2012 will be a somewhat better year. The positive impact of the stimulus and the QEs is gone but the economy is slowly improving even though the consumer deleveraging will be still a major headwind. The European situation and a potential bursting of the Chinese bubble are the biggest threats to the US economic recovery. I would not exclude another relatively big temporary drop in stock prices in 2012 as a result of panic induced by similar exogenous factors. I am looking at the dogs of 2011 for alpha: financials, homebuilders, maybe some industrials.
    26 Dec 2011, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • I would surmise that predictions are not worth a dime.


    Who would have predicted the Japanese tsunami, the overthrow of Strongman Moammar, the Egyptian Revolution, etc. in 2011? On a longer-term basis, who would have predicted the rag-tag Chinese Communist of 1949 to become the largest foreign holder of US Treasuries today?


    To be able to predict the future is not something that a human can do.
    26 Dec 2011, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • Best comment in this whole thread. Predictions are an act of futility, especially pertaining to capital markets.
    26 Dec 2011, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • Teutonic:
    One must predict the future based on the current to anticipate and act accordingly in the event the prediction were ever to come true. Better this than to not look at the current and get surprised.
    Kind of like seeing cloud formations and thinking there is a good chance of rain tomorrow. You my turn out wrong, but if right, prepared.
    26 Dec 2011, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • Yeah, wyostocks, for things like modern weather forecasting that are based on some scientific principles, yes. But for prediction discrete future events like those I elucidated above, and especially financial market outcomes, I would suggest trying the chinese ouija board,( I believe it is called die xian). Best of luck!
    26 Dec 2011, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • Unless your name is Hari Seldon....
    26 Dec 2011, 07:55 PM Reply Like
  • Please re-vamp/scrap the Post Office! This white elephant has run it's course and "this dog won't hunt no more". Too many levels of management, too many bonuses given out, and it's unions are in bed with the bosses. Too many hard workers (NOT managers) are being whipped until morale improves!
    26 Dec 2011, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • I don't have a clue what will happen in 2012. After the past few nothing would surprise me.


    I'm sticking heavily in cash with what little money I have in the market continuing to be weighted toward income producers (utilities, telecom, oil and gas mlp's and higher divy paying dividend growth defensive stocks). If the market melts down I'll be a buyer; if it melts up I'll probably sell some higher beta cyclical stocks or sell call options on those stocks.


    The only sure bet is that politicians and central bankers will continue to play an important (too important imo) role in the market.
    26 Dec 2011, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • The artfully crafted wording, "expiration of the Bush tax cuts" belies the true meaning of what's coming at the end of next year: The biggest tax increase in the history of the world.
    This threat will loom ever larger as the year unfolds and the election year class warfare rhetoric intensifies. The Congressional cat fighting will continue unabated, casting an ever-growing shadow of fear, uncertainty and doubt over the market. And consumers will resume their deleveraging forced march just as soon as the Christmas bills arrive.
    The resulting excess capacity and high unemployment will continue to constrain price increases and strengthen deflationary forces, worldwide.
    The strengthening dollar will begin to negatively impact consolidated U.S. Corporate profits, beginning in Q2. The resulting increase in unemployment, as corporations move to hold margins, will result in government beginning to play election year protectionist hardball in earnest.
    Toss in an Iranian nuke test, a China crash, and continuing denial and deck chair arranging on the European Titanic, and the world stage will be finally set for the next leg down in the much-postponed great debt deleveraging.


    Don't throw cash on this bonfire.
    26 Dec 2011, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • Inflation will be kept at bay while Obama and his crew continue to try to tamper down any economic activity that might lead to a excessive growth.


    We will all be fighting over politics the next year and the market will be flat... waiting on an outcome.


    Despite what some folks say here, Obama's policies are built to keep the market under 1400. Technically it looks the market is coiled up waiting to rocket up but regulations will keep it down as well as job prospects.
    26 Dec 2011, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • The US cannot dominate via Propaganda alone, when our Military might is being scaled down so drastically.


    And the situation in the Middle East is deteriorating so rapidly, IT - not the Euro Crisis - will be the reason we need rapid money printing, one way or the other, to maintain any sense of equilibrium.


    The fact that this is negative for the Dollar and positive for the struggling Euro is icing on the cake.


    Clearly China sees all this already. It knows that it has to give in and strengthen the Yuan - albeit not as much as many in the US want - because it strengthens its hand as a new Military - and Foreign Aid - power, stepping into the void that the US is leaving unfilled.
    26 Dec 2011, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • "And the situation in the Middle East is deteriorating so rapidly, IT - not the Euro Crisis - will be the reason we need rapid money printing, one way or the other, to maintain any sense of equilibrium."


    Can you expand on this?
    26 Dec 2011, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • There is not much of a difference between democrats and republicans. They pretend to stand for ideology but in the end, they create all of this drama just to support the same protected class of people. I'm surprised to see educated people bickering over the party of one pulling wool over your eyes. Congress must be doing a much better job than their poll numbers suggest.


    The only thing that drives the world economy are invention and innovation. That is why the 90's were such a prosperous time. It's not because government policy inspired someone to make the world a better place -- they did it on their own.


    Based on technological advancement and increased quality of life, I see great things on the horizon. The stock market will typically lag this. Everything else to me is just noise and an attempt to transfer wealth from one party to another.
    26 Dec 2011, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • "Only performance is reality".


    Predictions (dreams) don't really matter...and may be hazardous to your health. (wink)


    26 Dec 2011, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • Gold hits $2500 and Silver $50 before diving on early warnings that US will, as they did under FDR in the 1930's, make it illegal to own.
    Depreciation of USD and Euro becomes evident to citizens in mid-2012 as they learn that it isn't so much prices going up as currency going down. But masses are helpless to change fiscal or monetary direction as they gave up real democracy and power decades ago. Serious criticism of Fed, IMF, ECB will be treated in US and Eurozone as illegal international acts and US citizens will be detained under newly approved NDAA laws (similar to how President Wilson jailed opponents 100 years ago). Only way to play this one is to maximize debt now and pay later with super cheap currency (Weimar Republic Plan A). Plan B is two passports and pre-positioned PMs.
    26 Dec 2011, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • Before I give my 2012 predictions, Take a look at my 2011 predictions as publish on SA last December. For each, I have added the results.


    Here are my 10 bold predictions:
    1. Afghanistan will fade from the front lines as US troops draw down leading to windfall DoD saving. Unfortunately the government will quickly redeploy the funds into another money pit.


    In 2011 we withdrew from Iraq but just today, my Godson, Michael is heading back to Afghanistan for a year long tour as a US Marine. God bless and protect all of our troops. The rest of my prediction was just commentary.


    2. A major financial scandal in China will erupt onto the stage, scaring foreign investors out of that market and leading to a sharp sell off and a major intervention from the Chinese government. This market is due for a financial blow up.


    China has managed to keep the scandals in check but it didn;t prevent their market from sinking 15% for the year. Not good but not a financial blow up either!


    3. Some rogue nation will pull some stupid stunt that leads to pain and suffering for millions. OK not bold, nor tradable but it is a real risk.


    Can you say Syria? I would say the whole Arab Spring caught everyone off guard. So I am giving myself this.


    4. A new biotech break-through will lead to a cure. Again don't know where or what but we are due in this realm as well. And it might even fly under the radar at first but the change will be profound!


    Once again Biotech block busters remain illusive and the industry continues to fight and scratch for even the little victories. Zero for this one.


    5. Natural Gas cars will take off as oil hits $3.50 and electric cars cost to much!


    Swing and a miss. Changing energy sources takes years if not decades. But we are certainly sitting on lots of Natural Gas.


    6. The Dow will hit 14,000 and 9,800 this year. Volatility returns just as retail investors return in droves.


    Well volatility did return with 100 point days becoming a norm but the range was 10,500 to 12,800. Missed the range by 1,400 pionts.


    7. Commodity volatility leads to government intervention in the ETF market.


    Well they talked about it a little but they didn't intervene. Actually they did very little but snipe at one another. (probably a good thing.)


    8. 10 year bond hit 6.5% percent creating a real problem for the Federal budget.


    All I can say is that I am glad that I missed this one. But I wouldn't turn my back on the bond market. That day is coming.


    9. Feds are stuck between a rock and a hard place forced to raise short term interest rates back to 2.5% in less than a year.


    Missed this one too. We can thank the Europeans for keeping the crisis going this year.


    10 Wall Street manages to go a year without a scandal. Ok, I am just making that up!


    You cant say that Wall Street isn't consistent but I dont think that I have ever seen a more embarrassing wipeout thant MF Financial.
    Another zero.


    Come Dec we will see that you just cant predict the future!


    So I was 2.5 out of 10 and even that is a generous grade. But it was fun reading my predictions and remembering what I was thinking last Dec. I think I will try that again.
    26 Dec 2011, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • I wish I could share in the optimism of many on here, but I do not.


    A continuing series of geo-political crisis in the middle east, and a possible pre-emptive strike against Iran's nuclear facilities by Israel will keep oil prices volatile .


    Complicating this will be the realization that the EU has failed to address the financial crisis. The EU banks are dumping assets at fire-sale prices, and converting Euros into dollars at the Federal Reserve Exchange Window, which leaves the Federal Reserve holding currencies that have the potential to be utterly worthless in an EU collapse. The real race is which nation will be first to default.
    Sovereign debt interest rates ( Italy 7%, with what I ask) will increase. The political "will of the people" will dictate limits to the national leaderships on available courses of action, and the populist opinion ( UK and Germany) will boil down to protectionist policies and an unwillingness to act against domestic political self interests. The EU will fall, the only question is when.


    Domestically 2012 will focus on the election and it will be a "dog fight" that would make even Mike Vick vomit in disgust. Obama will suffer from several more "stimulus loan" Crony capitalism scandals lurking over the horizon, including Light Squared, and several more "green companies" will fail. No tax reform deal or entitlement reforms will happen, and the Republicans will continue to be tarred with the brush of "obstructionist" all the while Harry Reid will continue to do his best to make sure no House republican bills will reach the Presidents desk. The race for the Republican nomination will boil down to Romney or Newt, regardless of which wins, the question of the day will be if they so savage each other in the primaries,that offering the VP slot to the other would be out of the question. Together they are a ticket that would be tough to beat, apart they hinge the election on the VP selection, with Romney needing someone with strong conservative creds, and Newt needing someone more moderate,,,and organized. Ron Paul will continue to be a lightning rod for conservative critics who will paint this libertarian, isolationist, racist, neo-Nazi endorsed, lunatic as representative of conservative policies and values.Two possible independent candidates will emerge, Ron Paul, and the "Donald", and the long knives of the opposition researchers are already digging into both. I am certain there are new chapters being written in the DSM-IV about both.


    The combination of global uncertainty, multiple geo-political crisis, a possible strike by Israel against Iran leading to a US Iranian military confrontation in the Gulf, the certain collapse of the EU, and our own domestic political belligerence should be great for those who can read the signs and know when to get in, and when to get out, but if we are not careful in our decision making, 500 to 1000 point swings may become the new normal for a market that has proved conclusively it will react and frequently over-react to such stimulus.


    Obama can still win reelection, but an unstable economy will not appeal to moderates who Obama can not win without. A continued growing US debt, a reactionary market, the unwillingness of business to hire in the face of a regulatory burden and taxation scheme that retards growth, and Obama may very well assist the hangman in slipping the noose over his own head, in contrast if he moves to appease and win back the support of moderates, those policies may result in a proportionate loss of support from his base who grow more disillusioned with the lack of leadership. Even if Obama wins reelection, it is unlikely that the House will change hands, leaving him with two choices, cut deals with the Republican house to get anything done, or continue the legislative dead lock earning him the well deserved title of the most ineffective President this nation has ever had.


    If Obama had correctly responded to the 2010 election result, there is a lot of good he could have done in negotiated compromises with the Republican House, but his desire to appease the left wing and his inability to temper his own self rightousness and radical ideology, with politically practical actions, prevent him from functioning rationally. Obama has no Clinton in him.


    Substantial market correction in the works, unemployment will rise, and we will play out the Federal Reserves doomsday scenario they are testing the banks for as we eat the leftovers.
    26 Dec 2011, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • "Ron Paul will continue to be a lightning rod for conservative critics who will paint this libertarian, isolationist, racist, neo-Nazi endorsed, lunatic as representative of conservative policies and values."


    Most enjoyable part of a very readable comment. :)
    26 Dec 2011, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • We will see new all-time highs in the major indices.
    26 Dec 2011, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • The year of 2012 will be characterised by parabolic crashes, followed by insane rallies and parabolic decays, all punctuated by weeks or months of the doldrums.
    26 Dec 2011, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • Ricard,


    If Congress is now so hostile to military spending, it won't approve much of anything and, in fact, is clamoring for more cuts, the only way necessary spending becomes available is via more printing.


    And again, I believe one reason China is suddenly less averse to a considerably higher Yuan is because of the military and foreign aid implications of a higher Yuan and a concomitantly lower Dollar.
    26 Dec 2011, 05:23 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting indirect take on the situation. Makes sense. Basically we've already baked money printing into the cake, which I totally agree with.
    26 Dec 2011, 06:56 PM Reply Like
  • Bear
    26 Dec 2011, 06:49 PM Reply Like
  • The market will do what the market will do. Democrats and Republicans will continue to incur ever-increasing debt we can never repay and promise benefits we can never fulfill.


    The results of this are certain and terrible.


    Our children don't deserve this from us.
    26 Dec 2011, 06:56 PM Reply Like
  • I can't agree more, and I'm not sure why others don't point to the contradiction of the many boomers that want to save the planet for the children, all the while thinking that what will happen financially could be much more catastrophic. Maybe it's just me.
    26 Dec 2011, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • 1. Spain's Finance Minister Luis de Guindos said Monday the euro zone's fourth-largest economy is likely to contract this quarter and the next, Spain's state-owned news agency Efe reported.


    2. Oracle (ORCL) handed investors a lump of coal for a Christmas stocking stuffer on Tuesday. The company reported Q2 earnings that missed expectations and gave rather conservative guidance into the future.
    Things like these
    26 Dec 2011, 07:01 PM Reply Like
  • On a personal note for 2012; for the first time in my life, I would be helping to direct a political campaign.


    The campaign is not in the US, it is on Puerto Rico. Would be helping the reelection campaign of actual governor of PR Luis G. Fortuno(republican).


    On stocks; there decent sectors that have been unfavorable for a long time, home builders and banks. I am going to enter some long positions on both sectors.


    For 2012 I expect a acceleration of growth. Postponable purchases to GDP are at very high levels, still a lot of pent up demand remaining.
    26 Dec 2011, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • In 2012 markets will go up and will go down, just like they always do. How much depends on how much intervention the central banks can get away with, but trend will be down.
    26 Dec 2011, 08:13 PM Reply Like
  • First half of the year will be similar to the second half of this one. Second half of the year will be the opposite of whatever we have in the first half. Net will be slightly up but maybe not even up enough to make investing worthwhile given the risk.
    26 Dec 2011, 08:40 PM Reply Like
  • If Italy can roll over their debt in January without breaking stride, Europe will be able to kick the can for the entire year.


    At some point during the first half of 2012, oil will break $120.


    At some point during the second half of 2012, gold will break $2,000.


    Big oil companies will buy little oil companies with acreage in the Eagle Ford shale, where drilling is cheap and easy with no winter.


    With a buyback program of 17% in 2011 and another 20% in 2012, Dr. Pepper Snapple DPS will be the stock of the year.


    China Mobile CHL will buy Telefonica TEF.
    26 Dec 2011, 09:55 PM Reply Like
  • As long as ECB maintains their easy money policy and doesn't decide to tighten or indicate that it will tighten, I expect a good year for stocks. 12%-15% is reasonable. However, it's too risky to count on the ECB, so I'll just stay in JNK and collect my 8% yield.
    27 Dec 2011, 12:46 AM Reply Like
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