Despite all of Iran's blustering, closing the Straits of Hormuz would not be as easy as it...


Despite all of Iran's blustering, closing the Straits of Hormuz would not be as easy as it claims, say U.S. analysts. Iranian boats are too small, and don't have the capability to sustain a prolonged blockade. It would be a harassment effort at best. Besides, analysts say, any attempt will be met by an immediate response from the U.S. Fifth Fleet based in Bahrain.

Comments (38)
  • Cherry Picker
    , contributor
    Comments (381) | Send Message
     
    Iran has attempted to avoid rogue state status by propping itself up as a champion of Middle Eastern interests versus Israel and the West. Attempting to hold the Straits of Hormuz hostage would meet with dire consequences. A showdown would be catastrophic to world economies, but it would also present a pretext for Israel to react unilaterally militarily. Iran knows this and is putting on a show to flex its petro-muscles. If this were not so, oil prices would have already spiked through the roof.
    29 Dec 2011, 08:22 PM Reply Like
  • Uncle Pie
    , contributor
    Comments (4322) | Send Message
     
    From what I've read, Iran would not have to "close" the straits of Hormuz to cut the oil supply. Simply the transformation of the straits to an active war zone would mean the oil tankers could not get insurance, and with no insurance they would not move.
    29 Dec 2011, 08:24 PM Reply Like
  • 1980XLS-2.0
    , contributor
    Comments (528) | Send Message
     
    If need be, the entire Iranian fleet could be wiped out by US Navy & Air power within days.

     

    Would be fun too, as it could happen without a single boot on the ground.
    29 Dec 2011, 08:49 PM Reply Like
  • bigbenorr
    , contributor
    Comments (1153) | Send Message
     
    Probably true, but I doubt the sailors and pilots who would be risking their lives would call it "fun".
    29 Dec 2011, 10:43 PM Reply Like
  • laogao
    , contributor
    Comments (94) | Send Message
     
    You ever talk with a fighter pilot?
    That's the kind of thing they live for.
    And as long as US has superior technology and fire-power, the pilots will always be ready to be the sharp end of the sword.
    29 Dec 2011, 11:09 PM Reply Like
  • Ricard
    , contributor
    Comments (3814) | Send Message
     
    Agree with 1980 and bigben, disagree with laogao.

     

    Have you ever served in the military, son?

     

    "That's the kind of thing they live for."

     

    No. That's the kind of thing they train for. They pray it never happens.
    29 Dec 2011, 11:38 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (3559) | Send Message
     
    Hi Ricard,
    I agree with you. I'm from a military family and served myself. Every pro military person loves to train, but prays that it is never needed. The pro knows the true costs of war, destroyed lives, bodies and minds of military and civilians. War may be needed at times, but is never to be hoped for or entered into lightly. Iran has much better technology than Iraq had. They don't need a fleet to close the straight just mobile land based anti ship missles. One tanker and shipping stops. China has been selling technical weapons to Iran for years and no doubt Russia has also. Iran would not be the push over that Iraq was in the initial invasion.
    30 Dec 2011, 01:43 AM Reply Like
  • Ricard
    , contributor
    Comments (3814) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for your support. I served myself as well but I never saw combat, so I realize that even my perspective is probably still on the light side of the issue. Still, people need to realize that we have a volunteer force, and many of our servicemen and women have relationships, family, and friends, and we don't risk those for the thrill of combat. This isn't a video game.

     

    "Iran would not be the push over that Iraq was in the initial invasion."

     

    Not too sure about that. I suppose it would deal with how prepared we are for the threat, but I'm of the view that given our technology, training, and motivation, we are extremely difficult to beat. Also, we have air and naval superiority...air power makes impossible fights possible, to say nothing about an even matchup (if one exists for us). With enough air power, an entire country can be neutralized in days (given Iran's size, may take a little longer than Iraq).

     

    Still, your point about the nature of a conflict like this is a very good one...they can make a lot of mistakes...if we make one, they win.
    30 Dec 2011, 02:07 AM Reply Like
  • pre-boomer
    , contributor
    Comments (26) | Send Message
     
    Why wait for them to make a move ? With good intelligence and planning ( think raid to get OBL ) the Air Force & Navy air assets could sink them while tied to their docks ( think Pearl Harbor ). We have tried the ' speak softly ' thing - it's time for the BIG stick ! Opps ! I forgot - also need some BOLD leadership ! If we only had that the whole world would follow our lead.
    29 Dec 2011, 09:48 PM Reply Like
  • bigbenorr
    , contributor
    Comments (1153) | Send Message
     
    Better to wait until action is justified than to preemptively strike, after all it didn't work out so well for the Japanese.
    29 Dec 2011, 10:39 PM Reply Like
  • laogao
    , contributor
    Comments (94) | Send Message
     
    US has modern precedents of not reacting to acts of war - Iran hostage crisis as an example. Unfortunately.
    The inactivity by President Carter back then has fostered the current situation.
    And the present lack of leadership is not helping.

     

    From a trading point of view, I expect a stalemate which will lead to higher prices for oil and possibly a boost for domesticproducers.
    29 Dec 2011, 11:15 PM Reply Like
  • Uber Vandal
    , contributor
    Comments (296) | Send Message
     
    "The inactivity by President Carter back then has fostered the current situation."

     

    What about how the US and the UK helped knock over a DEMOCRATIC Iran in 1953?

     

    http://bit.ly/sHx6Sg

     

    We ARE the Dr. Frankenstein unleashing many of our own monsters upon the world.
    29 Dec 2011, 11:41 PM Reply Like
  • Ricard
    , contributor
    Comments (3814) | Send Message
     
    "Better to wait until action is justified than to preemptively strike, after all it didn't work out so well for the Japanese."

     

    One word. Israel.
    29 Dec 2011, 11:41 PM Reply Like
  • wolverine27
    , contributor
    Comments (421) | Send Message
     
    this is just a ploy by the iranians to keep oil above 100 dollars a barrell. its so obvious its laughable. every single commodity has come down except oil. oil should be at 80 not 100.
    29 Dec 2011, 10:42 PM Reply Like
  • laogao
    , contributor
    Comments (94) | Send Message
     
    If they can't export, how does the price benefit them?
    29 Dec 2011, 11:19 PM Reply Like
  • Ricard
    , contributor
    Comments (3814) | Send Message
     
    "If they can't export, how does the price benefit them?"

     

    One word: China.
    29 Dec 2011, 11:42 PM Reply Like
  • OptionManiac
    , contributor
    Comments (3498) | Send Message
     
    I have to agree with you on this. The Iranians know it would be suicide to sink a tanker. Cruise missles would partly destroy their military's hardware in a few days. Every one of their ships now has a bullseye on it. This is bluster - yes - just to keep their economy from sputtering further.
    30 Dec 2011, 06:44 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (3559) | Send Message
     
    You can't hit what you can't see. The Iranians shot down an American drone in their airspace, this means they have sophisticated radar and personel to use it and weapons also. And then we have the temerity to increase sanctions after they refuse to return the drone? Did Russia return our U-2 after it was shot down in their airspace? In the Islamic world we are seen as the bad guys because they haven't forgotten the chain of events that have led to this situation. Stay out of their way and let them have their exercise, allow everyone to cool off. Our military is already over extended and our treasury is depleted, if we aren't careful we will soon join the Roman Empire in extinction. Read Sun Tzu, The Art of War http://suntzusaid.com What was true thousands of years ago is still true today.
    30 Dec 2011, 07:24 AM Reply Like
  • OptionManiac
    , contributor
    Comments (3498) | Send Message
     
    By the looks of the drone shown by the Iranians, it was not "shot down", there would be just splinters left. But yes, we should just let them bluster away and let them have their "15 minutes". I think too much attention was played to their posturing. Our answer should have been "Well, whatever, go ahead and play your games."

     

    Ron Paul does make a valid point here and there with his foreign policy.
    30 Dec 2011, 07:32 AM Reply Like
  • bigbenorr
    , contributor
    Comments (1153) | Send Message
     
    Pretty sure the drone crashed on its own, other than that I agree with you.

     

    Also, remove the "If" from that final statement and you've pretty much nailed it.
    30 Dec 2011, 07:33 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (3559) | Send Message
     
    OM and BB, I guess that either way it crashed, but I don't think we are accepting that the Iranians may be in a better military state than most people think. I guess we may have to agree to disagree. :-)
    30 Dec 2011, 07:43 AM Reply Like
  • OptionManiac
    , contributor
    Comments (3498) | Send Message
     
    War should be avoided at all cost - no matter the state of their military. I think that we can agree on.
    30 Dec 2011, 07:55 AM Reply Like
  • bigbenorr
    , contributor
    Comments (1153) | Send Message
     
    Still,
    I'm not disagreeing, Iran is certainly better armed than Afghanistan and Iraq, and those conflicts have not been easy. Even if you don't consider the toll it has taken on the soldiers, it has become a logistical nightmare. Iran may not be close to the U.S. in military might, but that doesn't mean they can be wiped out with no cost or effort. And my view on war is that if you DO decide that there is no other option, your goal should be to completely obliterate your enemy. Trying to win a war without stepping on anyone's toes simply multiplies your losses and chances of defeat.
    30 Dec 2011, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • OptionManiac
    , contributor
    Comments (3498) | Send Message
     
    Agree with those comments. Their navy would be essentially wiped out in a few days - but once we piss them off - we don't know what they may have up their sleeves, doesn't have to be overt military action, like a nuke in NY harbor. Yes, we would have to wipe them out to feel "safe".
    30 Dec 2011, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (3559) | Send Message
     
    OM and BB,
    I stand corrected, according to this article the Iranian military computer geeks took control of the drone and brought it down. http://yhoo.it/rHL104
    30 Dec 2011, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • Ricard
    , contributor
    Comments (3814) | Send Message
     
    Actually it's a lot more disturbing than that...from my understanding they compromised our satellite technology.
    30 Dec 2011, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (3559) | Send Message
     
    That would be very disturbing. That would require sophistication on many levels, equipment, personnel, programs and hints at a very good intel gathering/analysis unit.
    30 Dec 2011, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • Ricard
    , contributor
    Comments (3814) | Send Message
     
    Still, I don't think it's overall that disturbing. Of course they can do with with command and control intact, but whether or not they will be intact during a sustained shelling or bombing is another question.
    30 Dec 2011, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • Cherry Picker
    , contributor
    Comments (381) | Send Message
     
    I would be inclined to look to China as a likely accomplice in the shooting down of our drone. A piece of hardware like this has invaluable intelligence value to a country like China while it is not all that likely that Iran by itself would have the sophistication and capabilities to gain real intelligence from the craft or to bring it down in one piece. The most likely scenario is that China hacked and hijacked control of the plane in exchange for unlimited access to it once it disappears from public view. Iran and China are probably in bed together on this one.
    30 Dec 2011, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • Cherry Picker
    , contributor
    Comments (381) | Send Message
     
    I agree. If we give ample and clear warning to rogue nations that hostilities against the US will result in all-out war with a take no prisoners attitude, much of this saber rattling would end quickly.

     

    We never would have won WW II against Germany and Japan if we had not completely and utterly destroyed the means and will to wage war and keep their economies operating. Just as fat lazy Americans are all too happy to let the other guys kids go to war, things change dramatically once the homeland is hit as was the case with the attack on the WTC. All at once half the country was concerned that their little town would be next to be hit. For the most part it wasn't the privileged the ran to enlist. It was a combination of ordinary American patriots and out of work young people from economically hard hit areas of the country.

     

    Half measures in war are stupid and cost more lives than they save.
    30 Dec 2011, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (3559) | Send Message
     
    I agree that when war is needed it must be swift and decisive. I think that there are many in our country that do not understand the full cost of war, that continually are calling for it without regards to other options. The more skin you have in the game the more things you think through. And you are also correct that no matter what we do we will step on toes.
    30 Dec 2011, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • Ricard
    , contributor
    Comments (3814) | Send Message
     
    "Half measures in war are stupid and cost more lives than they save."

     

    Excellent comment, all of it.
    30 Dec 2011, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • Ricard
    , contributor
    Comments (3814) | Send Message
     
    Well, regardless what we think or suspect, the guys with the intel and who operated the drone actually know (I hope).
    30 Dec 2011, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (3559) | Send Message
     
    I agree that war is an all or nothing decision with no half measures, this is why it is so important to weigh all options with a cool head.
    30 Dec 2011, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • Jaayd
    , contributor
    Comments (51) | Send Message
     
    While we gather 36 UN resolutions and spend months making a decision on how to respond----Iran gets another 15 minutes of fame on the world stage.

     

    Laogao is correct. Just another stalemate to prevent any type of relief from real solutions. Anything to take focus away from our economic disaster.
    29 Dec 2011, 11:38 PM Reply Like
  • jkenn
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    Iran and North Korea should have been "NUKED" themselves a long while back, why should the whole world have to live in fear of "Nuclear Attacks" by Ideological Leaders with only War and Instability in their Small Minds with Big Ego's, and give no care to their own peoples needs, Or what about the Nations funding Fundamental activities, Why couldn't they spend as much money on "PEACE"

     

    These CORRUPT Dictatorships with Communistic Values are proven not to work and they only Enrich the Cronies, and alike.

     

    They cause the poor people even more grief than they already have, and I would like to see some other nations on the "hit list" such as Afghanistan, Pakistan, Venezuela, Syria, Same as it took to subdue Japan from being "Ruthless" to very friendly.
    30 Dec 2011, 06:08 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (3559) | Send Message
     
    Well, using nukes would definitely end the misery of the little people. Unfortunately the tyrants would survive, the vermin always do. If these types of countries are proven not to work then why are they still there? And why do you want to destroy the people to save them? I think you need to learn respect for life before you start preaching about a tyrants inhumanity.
    30 Dec 2011, 06:27 AM Reply Like
  • Ricard
    , contributor
    Comments (3814) | Send Message
     
    "NUKED"

     

    You know what they say, live by the sword...
    30 Dec 2011, 10:49 AM Reply Like
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