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Dendreon (DNDN +28.6%) takes off after providing a business update. While the drug developer...

Dendreon (DNDN +28.6%) takes off after providing a business update. While the drug developer says its Q4 product revenue only amounted to ~$82M (below an $88.9M consensus), it says it expects modest Q/Q growth (consensus is for revenue to decline to $77.9M) thanks to strong uptake for its Provenge prostate cancer drug, and says it has "sufficient cash-on-hand to meet our needs."
Comments (5)
  • Gaucho
    , contributor
    Comments (895) | Send Message
     
    First the consensus was NOT 88.9 million the consensus was in the high 60s. Since DNDN is heavily shorted the owned financial media is now rewriting history to make it look as if a 25% Q over Q results are bad and a 225% Y over Y results are some how bad. Did we say high 60 million no we meant low 80s just forget what was said before this quarters results were released

     

    Some how beating estimates soundly is bad. The shorts are trapped and they are now using the so called analysts (propaganda artists ie sheep herders) to keep people from buying. Does it make sense when the Q1 consensus is now 77.9 million after a 82 million Q4 number over the holidays and a exponential growth curve. It is especially ridiculous since the number of infusion sites has continued to grow Q over Q and the use of those facilities are expected to grow as doctors become familiar with the NOW 15 day medicare reimbursement time.
    6 Jan 2012, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • wwuepper
    , contributor
    Comments (31) | Send Message
     
    Sure would be nice to know what ghost writer decided to write this piece. Seems like the revenue estimate is overstated.
    6 Jan 2012, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • SA Editor Eric Jhonsa
    , contributor
    Comments (738) | Send Message
     
    The consensus revenue forecast was taken from Yahoo Finance. It says $88.9M for Q4 (based on the estimates of 22 analysts).

     

    http://yhoo.it/ywVj3Z
    6 Jan 2012, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • Gaucho
    , contributor
    Comments (895) | Send Message
     
    Yahoo updated these figures from the original numbers and they have steadily risen from the beginning of Q4. Now I want you to remember Q1 2012 77.9 million which implies that sales are going to fall 6% Y over Y.

     

    Please explain to the rest of us how sales are going to fall 6% since they have been growing consistently and the last quarter was 25% growth and Y over Y growth is around 225%. Also explain how this is going to happen when the number of infusion sites has grown rapidly to now over 800 and the Q code is seeing 15 days for reimbursement.

     

    Sales if they stayed on a straight line compounded growth would be 103 million for Q1 2012 and that assumes no exponential growth which seems to be occurring.

     

    We used to have a saying for simulations BS in and BS out.
    6 Jan 2012, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • wwuepper
    , contributor
    Comments (31) | Send Message
     
    Ten guys are sitting around a bar and discussing their average salary. It worked out to be 43,500. Then Bill Gates walks in.

     

    I guess you can claim you are only reporting an average, but look at the of 207M high number. Do you think the analyst that made such a claim did so a long time ago (before the Co pulled that guidance), or does he still think that. Maybe, you should use a better formula, one that removes the highest and lowest, then averages for example.

     

    I hope you see my point.
    7 Jan 2012, 09:09 AM Reply Like
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