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Apple (AAPL -1.3%) roundup: 1) Digitimes reports Pegatron will start low-cost iPhone and...

Apple (AAPL -1.3%) roundup: 1) Digitimes reports Pegatron will start low-cost iPhone and next-gen (retina?) iPad Mini shipments in August. The WSJ recently reported Pegatron had taken iOrders from Foxconn, and the Commrcial Times just reported parts shipments for a cheaper iPhone are underway. 2) Horace Dediu estimates Apple has been adding an average of 500K iTunes accounts/day (180M+/year) since '09, and puts Apple's annual revenue/account at ~$300 (down from $400+ in 2010). 3) Apple's Japanese smartphone share has fallen to 25% from 40% over the last 4 weeks, per local research firm BCN. Sony's (SNE) share is believed to have more than doubled to 36%, thanks in part to the Xperia Z. IDC gave Apple a 40% share for Q1 as well.
Comments (8)
  • Humble Eagles
    , contributor
    Comments (2065) | Send Message
     
    The bad news is Apple is down hard again; the good news is everybody expected it because it has bottomed after WWDC for the last few years. Could take an earnings report, but maybe not considering the magnitude of the pullback. Also depends a lot on Apple's rollout timing.
    14 Jun 2013, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • milehr
    , contributor
    Comments (519) | Send Message
     
    I wouldn't call it "hard".
    14 Jun 2013, 11:21 PM Reply Like
  • Humble Eagles
    , contributor
    Comments (2065) | Send Message
     
    Of course Digitimes said about ten days ago that iPad was starting production in the next few weeks and the plastic iPhone was being produced now and ready for rollout at WWDC...which Digitimes to believe??
    14 Jun 2013, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • DIgitalMediaView
    , contributor
    Comments (668) | Send Message
     
    Fascinating analysis from Horace Dediu. Thanks for pointing it out. Reading further he comes to an interesting assessment of the extreme under-valuation of AAPL’s 575M iTunes customer base.

     

    “Enterprise Value (i.e. Market cap minus cash) on a per-customer (i.e. iTunes account) basis [analysis] shows that for a number of years—from 2009 until late 2012—Apple’s users were valued (implicitly by the stock market) as likely to create a net present value of about $1200 in earnings. The current value is about a third of that, or $440 in earnings. Today’s expectation is therefore that each current customer will buy the equivalent of 1.8 iPhones. And nothing more, ever. A few months ago it was expected that each customer would buy three times as much…The company’s equity is being priced such that an Apple user is considered less than half as valuable as she used to be—from 3.2x revenues to [a little less than] 1.5x revenues. This change in user value has been quite abrupt, happening only within the last nine months. What could justify a drop in user value would be a drop in customer satisfaction or loyalty. So far, I have seen no evidence of this happening.”

     

    For comparison, the enterprise value of AAPL’s customers is only about 40% greater than the enterprise value of NFLX’s 36M customers, which calculates to ~$313. NFLX sells $7.99 monthly subscriptions—their $3.76B annual rev implies their subscriber net worth is $104/yr on average. AAPL sells a vast array of computer hardware, mobile devices, software, services and content to their customers from which they generate about $300/yr on average. Ignoring any multiplier as it relates to lifetime customer value (accounting for churn would make AAPL’s customers far more valuable), in this artificial apples-to-apples comparison, NFLX customers are worth ~3x revenue, while AAPL customers are worth ~1.5x revenue.

     

    Does anyone believe that dollar-for-dollar NFLX’s customers are twice as valuable as AAPL’s customers? That’s how screwed up valuations of tech companies are right now.
    14 Jun 2013, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • Keep It Simple
    , contributor
    Comments (482) | Send Message
     
    Market inefficiency at its best re NFLX vs AAPL.

     

    NFLX is a joke at even $100.
    14 Jun 2013, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • scott trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5186) | Send Message
     
    Apple insider noting 500,000 iTunes downloads per day....not too shabby....http://bit.ly/11LFyVa
    14 Jun 2013, 07:50 PM Reply Like
  • berylrb
    , contributor
    Comments (2214) | Send Message
     
    Wow, amazing!

     

    The amazing thing to me is that this isn't like joining a blog, the only reason to add an iTunes account is to buy something or rent something. It would be interesting to get some OS specific numbers too, the revenue by industry is cool, but by OS would add yet another metric to dispel the myth that market share is more important than GM share.

     

    Just curious is Passbook the only "rumor" as to how Apple will attempt to monetize the 1B iTunes accounts?
    14 Jun 2013, 10:39 PM Reply Like
  • scott trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5186) | Send Message
     
    Yes those are new devices iPod iPads and mainly iPhones that equates at about 15 million a month , 45 million a quarter..... since @68 percent of aapl's sales based on iPhone alone should pencil out to 30 million iPhones.....close to what android says they activate about 300,000 a day from multiple platforms...
    15 Jun 2013, 02:13 PM Reply Like
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