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Worth noting: Short interest on Walter Energy (WLT) rose 13.8% to 17.05M shares through the end...

Worth noting: Short interest on Walter Energy (WLT) rose 13.8% to 17.05M shares through the end of May, to 27.47% of its current float and the largest number of shares sold short in the past year. Before today's move, shares were down nearly 14% and it might be reasonable to speculate that shorts increased positions somewhat over the last two weeks. Shares are still halted, with the stock down 17.4%.
Comments (29)
  • jawdoc19@gmail.com
    , contributor
    Comments (36) | Send Message
     
    Financing was not needed as WLT didn't have any debt to pay. I purchased ton of shares at $12.65. Hopefully this thing will touch $15.50 Monday. Lot to cover for shorts.
    14 Jun 2013, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • jenzo
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    Why will they cover?
    14 Jun 2013, 07:57 PM Reply Like
  • slash32is4
    , contributor
    Comments (115) | Send Message
     
    bottoming of coal prices... Capitulation.... maybe?
    14 Jun 2013, 08:00 PM Reply Like
  • Mongoose7916
    , contributor
    Comments (215) | Send Message
     
    I bet it still touches another 52 week low on Monday before retracing especially if the market is down. I think this thing ultimately touches back into the elevens maybe even the tens. I think anyone who is looking to buy this is going to wait until some support is established.
    14 Jun 2013, 08:39 PM Reply Like
  • Cliff Hilton
    , contributor
    Comments (1428) | Send Message
     
    I bought at $30.58 thinking that was low. How low is low? I'm new to any kind of commodity. I knew coal was the rotten apple of commodities going in and, I knew it would take a hit mid-year; but not this much. I've never been underwater at any point in any stock; this is the first. I hate having to hold till it makes money....if it does. I'm learning a lesson about commodities.
    14 Jun 2013, 08:45 PM Reply Like
  • Mongoose7916
    , contributor
    Comments (215) | Send Message
     
    Most people hate to catch falling knives regardless of fundamentals and after the kind of drop it had today I doubt there will be any serious buyers until the middle of the week next week. The kind of drop WLT has had in just one day is usually reserved for micro cap stocks not a lot of people with the fortitude to take a position after that kind of pain. The only people who do are the ones playing the micro caps and they clearly don't have the bank accounts in order to start making some support levels. Long term I love the value here but if you bought later in the day today or plan on buying Monday I would still expect a small amount of pain early in the week next week. It never hurt anyone to see some green before establishing a position.
    14 Jun 2013, 08:49 PM Reply Like
  • Jrookie
    , contributor
    Comments (29) | Send Message
     
    First time for everything or not invested very long but if this is in fact your first loss ever... then I need you to be managing my money.
    18 Jun 2013, 01:29 AM Reply Like
  • benja0e6
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    added 3k @vg down to $14
    14 Jun 2013, 09:01 PM Reply Like
  • fbert
    , contributor
    Comments (32) | Send Message
     
    I just don't understand a management that just received our blessing in their proxy fight and then they act like amateurs. Why talk about ref. when they knew that the past two months have been unstable for credit markets. We took a 17% drubbing so they can come out and tell us we don't need the money now. Great where do I get my money back?
    14 Jun 2013, 09:07 PM Reply Like
  • CanadaPhil
    , contributor
    Comments (68) | Send Message
     
    I agree with you that so far the management hasn't been stellar at that company... If only they could make less horrid mistakes, then I could hope for the stock to eventually climb back up so I can start making some money about it. On the other hand, by pushing the price of most other coal companies down, it's created a window of opportunity to increase exposure to companies that are actually decently run.
    14 Jun 2013, 10:58 PM Reply Like
  • benja0e6
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    Management can't run a company based on day to day market events..They had their reasons to refinance ..short sellers took over on the news about it the withdrawal ..would have been good to reduce interest burden but then again if the terms were not favorable ..would be dumb to sign on to it ..@ 20% wipe out wasn't necessarily the expected outcome ..wouldn't be surprised if they are subject to a take over or simply higher sales and hedge fund backing
    14 Jun 2013, 09:21 PM Reply Like
  • J Mintzmyer
    , contributor
    Comments (3604) | Send Message
     
    Did anyone see the crash on related coal companies? ACI dropped to a record low for a few minutes. Ridiculous. No debt due until 2016.

     

    Panic.
    14 Jun 2013, 09:35 PM Reply Like
  • kleffa
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    With ETFs linking all the coal companies and algorithimic trading that all take their cues from somewhat similar data, the simultaneous drop is not too surprising. I decided a buying opportunity but possibly wrong! Bought BTU and ANR. Do not like ACI.
    16 Jun 2013, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • kleffa
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    80 year old retiree from American Electric Power. In markets since 1970 and have had many character building experiences. Live near CSX rail line where ANR coal is transported to east coast shipping terminals.
    16 Jun 2013, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • wil3714
    , contributor
    Comments (1598) | Send Message
     
    current debt is only $17M with no significant debt maturing until 2015, they still have time to refinance, sell assets, or issue more debt.
    14 Jun 2013, 10:00 PM Reply Like
  • Ajayyy
    , contributor
    Comments (311) | Send Message
     
    Seriously, this is ridiculous. They now have a market cap of mere 750M. If I had that sort of money I'd buy the company.
    15 Jun 2013, 12:09 AM Reply Like
  • WPSPIKER
    , contributor
    Comments (1141) | Send Message
     
    I agree with most of statements above, it had very long term support around 17~18, where I bought in at initially month or so back. Yesterday I doubled my position on it to average down some just prior to the crash :( I am not the only one that saw the 17~18 as long term support as there are several directors (insiders) who bought a ton of stock, I am willing to bet these same guys will have added a bunch more stock yesterday and maybe monday. We will see if any real news comes out of if the SEC lets the naked short sellers pile in once again on Monday... Still think there should be uptick and borrowing like pre naked shorting for all stocks.

     

    Mark
    15 Jun 2013, 08:18 AM Reply Like
  • bajageoff
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    I have started following Carolyn Boroden's Fibonacci work. At $35 WLT looked to me like a buy set up. She looked at it and said if anything it was setting up as a sell. Oh how I wish I had acted on that!
    15 Jun 2013, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • wcander1
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    You don't have to have a debt maturity in order to violate covenants and end up in default. It is total speculation to bet on increases in met coal prices. (It may happen; but if it doesn't, WLT will probably struggle to service their debt over the few years)
    15 Jun 2013, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • Mongoose7916
    , contributor
    Comments (215) | Send Message
     
    wcander it is true that WLT could eventually go under if prices don't improve but you could basically say that about any of the coal names. All of them have debt issues as far as I know and I'm not sure all of them will be able to survive. What I do know is that the energy landscape as it is currently working is unsustainable and that something is going to have to give. Whether that is natural gas prices rising making coal more widely used or companies going under from unsustainable losses thus decreasing the supply available and again raising prices I don't know but as I said something has to give.
    However from the huge selloff on Friday it would seem that the market believes that a lot of coal bankruptcies are imminent. Clearly this is not the case as all the publicly traded coal companies which have not already gone under already are at least in respectable financial condition and even if market prices in coal don't improve none of these coal names would be declaring bankruptcy until at least somewhere in 2014. What happened on Friday and what may continue to happen early in the week next week is another classic case of the market getting ahead of itself and assuming something will happen which clearly cannot be known yet. At some point the potential reward has to outweigh the near term risks that coal has just look at the stock charts for coal in 2008 and you can understand why so many investors are becoming intrigued. There is no reason cheap assets may not get cheaper but as I said before the current environment is unsustainable and at some point something has to give and when it does give there is a large possibility of upside. Sorry for the rant like format.
    15 Jun 2013, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • Teaser
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Insiders bought a ton of stock between $17.00 and $18.00. Nothing in life is certain. Most people fail to realize that risk is the price of opportunity. When shorts increase exponentially above the 20% level - particularly after a stock has been beaten to death due to industry structural metrics, the odds are with the longs. Patience will ultimately prevail. The problem is, most traders have no patience.
    16 Jun 2013, 06:35 AM Reply Like
  • wil3714
    , contributor
    Comments (1598) | Send Message
     
    tomorrow it could go the other way with 30% short interest, whats your point
    17 Jun 2013, 12:57 AM Reply Like
  • Mongoose7916
    , contributor
    Comments (215) | Send Message
     
    Agree 100% teaser. Although I think one downside to the information age that we live in now is that we don't have to have any patience for most things anymore so why would we have any when it comes to market. Patience has gone from a value this country admired to a skill which few possess.
    16 Jun 2013, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • Ajayyy
    , contributor
    Comments (311) | Send Message
     
    At this price the only sellers are probably people who bought on margin or people naked shorting...I think the buyers will outnumber sellers and WLT should find support over $15 level.

     

    Also, considering that insiders were buyers at $18-19, chances are that they are not going bankrupt.

     

    If not now, then when?
    16 Jun 2013, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • Jrookie
    , contributor
    Comments (29) | Send Message
     
    Why do you say 15 level is support or is it just a guess?
    18 Jun 2013, 01:22 AM Reply Like
  • Shmulik444
    , contributor
    Comments (20) | Send Message
     
    "What if met coal prices never rise?" Really? I suppose if I don't live long enough to see it happen then you could say, "it neve happened for me". With thermal coal now in competition with nat gas and etc. etc. that down pressure does seem eternal. Met coal prices are tied to the economy. The huge disconnect between price and value for WLT is the 800lb gorilla in the room facing off against the crappy economic policy gorilla in Washington. I'm betting the country survives and WLT will pull through to. Just not betting the whole farm.
    16 Jun 2013, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • Mongoose7916
    , contributor
    Comments (215) | Send Message
     
    Coal prices at some point have to go up and it may take five years for them to rebound but the current energy landscape is unsustainable. Natural gas is definitely a challenge for coal but it is also a challenge for just about every energy source out there right now. Natural gas is becoming more and more integrated into so many things it has to eventually go up because at some point demand will start to catch up to the supply they are currently producing. This also doesn't factor in that most of the natural gas producers don't start to become very profitable until natural gas hits that $4.00 level at which point coal can compete fairly well with them. Coal demand is still rising globally albeit at a very slow pace and with periods of regression. It is still projected in the next twenty to thirty years we will need 15 to 20% more coal although with predictions that far out there is always the possibility that some disruptive force could come about and change this but as it stands now that is where the world is heading. But finally the most salient point as to why coal prices have to go up is that if prices remain at these levels for an extended period of time more coal companies will have to declare bankruptcy and there will be consolidation within the industry leading to less supply available which should in turn raise coal prices. The big x factor with coal is with Washington and the epa but there seemingly just as many positive catalysts as there are negative ones there if there was a change in administration to more energy friendly policies.
    16 Jun 2013, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • WPSPIKER
    , contributor
    Comments (1141) | Send Message
     
    Mongoose I believe (WLT) produces mostly MET COAL used to produce steel. They are not in the Electrical Generation in any major way from what I know. MET COAL is required when making steel and can not be replaced by Nat Gas. The MET COAL is added to the iron when smelting to provide heat and carbon to produce steel.

     

    Mark
    17 Jun 2013, 11:19 PM Reply Like
  • wil3714
    , contributor
    Comments (1598) | Send Message
     
    One thing I did notice this weekend is the heap accounts that have only a few comments and are mostly negative. Why are they chiming in now? If you follow Nouriel Roubini, he always chimes in when the market is negative. This is the same follow the crowd mentality.

     

    They want to spread negative news so you'll drive the price down.
    17 Jun 2013, 01:07 AM Reply Like
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