Seeking Alpha

UniPixel (UNXL +5.3%) jumps out of the gate after announcing it has finished building out a...

UniPixel (UNXL +5.3%) jumps out of the gate after announcing it has finished building out a 7.5K-square foot Texas office and wet lab facility that will support its UniBoss touch sensor manufacturing ramp. The company adds its employee count is up to 32, and that a motion for summary judgment in its breach of contract dispute with CIT is currently pending. Shares have been mostly treading water in June after crashing in May.
From other sites
Comments (9)
  • goodybob
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
    Yeehaw...more good news & momentum upward again. Truth & real news is good for us bulls.
    19 Jun 2013, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • Peter Whear
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
    For a more realistic& objective view than that given out by a bunch of proven dissemblers try this .........



    Conclusion from this analyst - "the odds are against"
    19 Jun 2013, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • goodybob
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
    Good or OK Street article, but not including all pro-good news & was a bit ultra-conservative. The conclusion turned to try to assist shorts it looks like...again.


    But switching to talking in the real's today's EDGAR report from UNXL elaborating todays' helpful Seeking Alpha Market Current news.

    19 Jun 2013, 10:42 AM Reply Like
    , contributor
    Comments (72) | Send Message
    In spite of the tasty icing on this announcement, it really does not say much. You cannot get real production from a wet lab and new offices. Their original schedule had them producing 60,000 units by the end of April. There has been a lot of banter about the first 50 units that had shipped were rejected by their supposed partner, with speculation that these units were chosen from a number of production runs for qualification approval. If this was so, then there probably should have been other small commercial orders filled by this time as well. If I was running a company I wouldn't want all this inventory on my books. Did they write down all of these rolls once the samples failed? This is standard operating procedure for a company that is looking to ramp up. I know because I ramped up two new production companies myself and sold into the TP market for 30 years.


    Take Cambrios for an example. They stated about 10 years ago. Their first announced product was for a small production of a smart phone sold only in Asia 3 years ago. It was two years later before LG came out with them showing a 23" monitor with a touch panel made from their ink. KDI's history of product development and introduction is similar. Do Unipixel's "favorite" customers have non compete agreements so that Unipixel cannot sell to other customers? Or are there just no other commercial applications in the immediate time frame?


    The statement that Unipixel's targeted market, larger diagonal TPs, is growing at a faster rate than other TP market segments and will reach $1.9 billion by 2014 is also misleading. This $ volume is for the whole monitor/TP. At a "middle of the road" estimate for near term price of these complete units of $100-$150 each, the total TP sales will be less than $200 million. Say Unipixel is good enough to get 10% of the market share. (Don't forget about other mesh makers, Ag nanowires, some ITO and PEDOT and other approaches such as in cell touch and OGS. All of these materials and approaches are already in pre or full production.) that is a $20 million total market share of complete units. Worse yet, to stay reasonably competitive, the TP film component in these units should not exceed 15% of the COGS. So, at best, Unipixel's sales for 2014 will be in the $3-5 million dollar area. At their quoted price of $20/unit this represents about 250,000 units. For a production rate of 60,000 units/mo., this is only a little over 4 months of operation. Tell me again, why I need Eastman Kodak's expertise, unless their TX factory can't make anything?


    Once again, all I ask for from Unipixel is some real facts, names and numbers. As a responsible company, they should give these to their shareholders. If they don't, or worse cannot, something else is keeping up the stock price. I look forward to Unipixel proving my estimates completely wrong, don't you.
    19 Jun 2013, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • Chris Hofmann
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message


    I have always felt that you had ulterior motives, but your response today makes it quite clear.


    Your lack of knowledge of both the UNXL agreements (2nd paragraph) and the market (3rd paragraph) is quite astounding.


    UNXL's agreement with "Dell" (PC Manufacturer) is well known to be exclusive for 2013 for specific screen sizes.


    The touch market as a whole is vastly larger than you seem to be suggesting. While various research firms disagree on exactly how large, they all state that the Touch SENSOR market is going to be in the $10-$20B range, assuming that the sensor makes up the majority of the panel price (approximately 70%).
    19 Jun 2013, 02:38 PM Reply Like
    , contributor
    Comments (72) | Send Message


    If the Dell agreement is for an exclusive on certain sizes, what does that leave the other "favorite" unknown customer with? You are right; I have not seen the "Dell" agreement because I was not aware it was for public consumption. If it is, then please let me know where I can read it.


    Regarding what you infer to about my lack of knowledge on the TP market, I agree that the total market will be in the range of $10-20 billion in a few years. This is the sales price at the end of the market chain for TP units, not the price of the just the TP component. Did you know that that same market research company also predicted that the transparent conductive coating market, of which Unipixel is trying to enter, will be $1.9 billion in 2013, with ITO having an 80 % share? When the touch panel market is discussed as a whole, do not forget that this includes the over 500 million smart phones being made, as well as all of the tablets, GPS units and e-books, devices that Unipixel’s UniBoss film could be use in but not ones that they have chosen to initially target.


    That same research group also predicted that the size of the market for which larger area (diagonal of 9" and over) TPs, which will mostly be used, such as new PCs, tablets and super laptops, will by ~ 110-120 million units in 2013. They also said, as did several other independent research companies who all agreed with the other numbers I am quoting, that the touch option for these larger TPs would only be used in 13-17% of the larger display size market, or about 110,000 units. This is the target market which Unipixel has said they will pursue. Even if they capture 25% of this available business, which I think is a very optimistic prediction given their current production output; they will only ship about 27,000 units of film. Once again, all the numbers I have used come from the same market studies that you referenced in your comments to me.


    So, Chris please do your math on reasonable numbers, not the whole market. Also take into consideration that ITO is not a bad material. 100's of millions of products have been made with ITO over the last few years, with very few field failures reported. The most expensive ITO based transparent conductive film that I have found on the market this year is priced in the $30-40 per square meter range, or about $3.50 to $2.75 per square foot. This price does not go up exponentially with size, as some investor analysts have said. This price is somewhat cheaper than Unipixel’s quote of $20 per square ft.


    The transparent film component of the larger TPs is usually around 13-15% of the COGS of TP module. The cover glass sheet, the most expensive component for TPs is around 30-35% of the COGS. Have you ever seen the material breakdown for TPs? I have read several different studies myself as well as spoken to quite a few experts in the field of TPs. How many connections do you have in the actual TP business? I believe in double checking my numbers before I throw them out in a tirade at a person that I know nothing about. Feel free to Google my name. I am in Facebook as well as LinkedIn if you would like to find out more about my expertise and experience in the TP business. Everything I have said is based on a common sense analysis of the market and not on an emotional buy in to a stock with little or no track record. I hope you do make some money off Unipixel’s success. I just don’t think it is a $150 million market cap stock.


    Finally, I would like to leave you with the thought that there are already companies other than Atmel who are manufacturing TPs from mesh based films. Young Fast, a Taiwanese based TP company announced in Jan. of this year that they were making the larger diagonal TPs with mesh based films for Lenovo. Samsung supposedly has larger diagonal monitors in some of Best Buys stores with a mesh based product. The TP units that are made exclusively for them by a +$300 million/year Korean company already in optical film base products. The current annual capacity of this company for mesh based TPs is given at 180,000/yr. They claim that this output will be tripled by the end of this year. And I should believe that Unipixel / Kodak will be making 2 million units a month by the end of December?


    I do believe in mesh based transparent conductive films and know that they will be used in some sections of the market. However, there are some solid competitors out there, such as those I have mentioned as well as Fujifilm and 3M, in this area. They will not ignore the low hanging fruit that Unipixel seems to believe that they alone have found. There are also other technologies such as "in cell" and OGS that supposedly will be cheaper than film based solutions and offer a lower height profile.


    I hope Unipixel does succeed and UniBoss is a big hit. But I also know a bit about the size of the arena they are playing in and the competitors they are going against. $55 million in equity and 32 projected employees pale by comparison to the others in the field.
    19 Jun 2013, 06:50 PM Reply Like
  • Chris Hofmann
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message


    It is very easy to use selective data. But lets use all the data we have to make best estimates. For example, Dell, Lenovo, and I believe HP as well have all stated that they plan on having 60-100% of their notebooks/ultrabooks be touch-enabled by the end of 2014.


    This is why, in general, I prefer to think of this analysis in terms of square feet sold, not dollar sold. Please read the section entitled "market size" here:


    Furthermore, NONE of this analysis takes into account any demand from "new" markets, which I would define as either flexible, very large screen, or low-margin businesses. Due to the significantly reduced cost of UniBoss, it is very possible that we will begin to see touch-enabled film penetrating various other markets/products that they are currently not fit for. FWIW, I believe that NEON will be a significant driver in these areas as well.


    Also, I agree that there are many other competitors, both Metal Mesh and otherwise. I have mentioned these on several occasions as has Uni-Pixel. However, Uni-Pixel has a significant cost advantage compared to them (even OGS).


    By the way, your numbers are so small that they don't match expected revenues from other metal mesh players such as XSense or Fuji.
    19 Jun 2013, 07:36 PM Reply Like
  • Twest
    , contributor
    Comments (137) | Send Message
    I love the comments from everyone, particularly John & Chris.


    As for the news release. I don't see the news release as all that relevant. It sounds like hype to me - I'm not impressed about them setting up 7500 s.f. of office space.


    Let's hope we can get some real information that will help us understand the trajectory of this company's product into the near future. It sounds to me that there are far too many competent competitors already in place.


    The way that I view this whole story from my "outside" perspective is that Uni-Pixel has handled their investor relations very deceptively. Shame on UNXL management, directors, and shame on all regulators who ought to be looking into these fast-talkers.


    Shame on me for believing the super growth story and buying shares at $36 and again at $32, only to sell at $16. Once burned, thrice-shy.
    19 Jun 2013, 11:51 PM Reply Like
  • goodybob
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
    I bought like that & much more at the lower no reason ridiculous crashes, including yesterday when shorts & Chicken Little's were cashing in, but NO WAY selling as the future is great, if all is true. Regardless, the time is overdue for the pumps & it will rise like a phoenix, especially when big money comes back in & everyone calls off the dogs as seen the start of it this week, along with good news & defenses.


    For answers to your update info, & busloads of lawyers imported from who knows, here is yesterdays news:


    YESTERDAYS' CEO & UPDATE NEWS addressing all from the lawsuit circus, to production, The Computex Show, etc.:



    If I were you, I'd consider buying your shares back at who knows what point... well, when the VARIOUS sharks finally give up & leave the water, then they'll come back with gifts to fill up the pond again. Hope the best for ya' whatever you do.
    20 Jun 2013, 09:57 AM Reply Like
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)
ETF Screener: Search and filter by asset class, strategy, theme, performance, yield, and much more
ETF Performance: View ETF performance across key asset classes and investing themes
ETF Investing Guide: Learn how to build and manage a well-diversified, low cost ETF portfolio
ETF Selector: An explanation of how to select and use ETFs