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Gold continues to tumble, the price off 5.5% and taking out $1,300 for the first time since the...

Gold continues to tumble, the price off 5.5% and taking out $1,300 for the first time since the fall of 2010. Silver falls 7.6%, the price below $20 for the first time since that period as well. GLD -3.7%, SLV -5.9% premarket. Gold miners: GDX -4.6%, GDXJ -5.3% premarket. A popular miner short play, DUST +14.8%.
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Comments (52)
  • Tao Jaxx
    , contributor
    Comments (1368) | Send Message
     
    So where are the experts now?
    Marc Faber ($ debased, hyperinflation)?
    Peter Schiff? ("Sky's falling")
    Jim Rogers (Gold and Emerging markets for him, a 2-for-1),
    Jim Sinclair (Gold at $12,000)?
    John Paulson and his 21.8 Mn GLD shares?
    David Einhorn (gold miners)?
    Can we have their view?
    20 Jun 2013, 08:02 AM Reply Like
  • VenkatSankar
    , contributor
    Comments (23) | Send Message
     
    It needs courage to admit that they are wrong. Let's see one of these experts have this.
    20 Jun 2013, 08:16 AM Reply Like
  • CraigPowell
    , contributor
    Comments (116) | Send Message
     
    @Tao,
    Thanks for reminding, but there were also others,
    look at this forecast published 9 months ago: http://tinyurl.com/pbg...
    20 Jun 2013, 08:20 AM Reply Like
  • The Geoffster
    , contributor
    Comments (4013) | Send Message
     
    Wrong? Or just early?
    20 Jun 2013, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • fafatooey
    , contributor
    Comments (386) | Send Message
     
    Why do you think they are wrong?
    20 Jun 2013, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (3019) | Send Message
     
    I sell gold and silver for a living and have been in the deflation camp and dollar bullish (goes against what those you mentioned above say). I am ignored by the Lew Rockwell, GATA etc. crowd because I think differently than their "hyperinflation," "falling dollar" bias. I have advised my clients since Sept. 2011 to dollar cost average into a position, hoping the price falls lower to get an overall better price.

     

    You can check on what I write through my SA articles and on my blog at buygoldandsilversafely... (or click here: http://bit.ly/WmkIv9 )

     

    My last article on gold and silver was about the dead cat bounce we just experienced, predicting lower gold and silver prices. My next article will be a bullish one, due out in the next 48 hours.

     

    I simply call it like I see it based on the data presented rather than preach the gold bug mantra's.

     

    Most of my clients are well positioned now for what's to come. I am still dollar bullish though. Just have to understand what a dollar really is to comprehend that (hint: I am negative on the Euro/Yen/Pound).

     

    My next book is called, "Illusions of Wealth," due out in a couple months.
    20 Jun 2013, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • Common Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    All those "experts" have that arrogance attitude that they only know the truth.

     

    I still like gold as long term investment.
    20 Jun 2013, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • idkmybffjill
    , contributor
    Comments (1689) | Send Message
     
    "Most of my clients are well positioned now for what's to come"

     

    Which is...?
    20 Jun 2013, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • ghaukness0929
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    post said: My next article will be a bullish one, due out in the next 48 hours.

     

    For those who don't think chart patterns are BS - the last leg down and move looks like a wedge to me. And that signals a continuation pattern. The move below is confirmed on a close today.
    20 Jun 2013, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (3019) | Send Message
     
    idkmybffjill,

     

    What's to come is outlined in Chapter 4 of my first book, and the basis for my next book. The first book is on Amazon.com and you can read the reviews; http://amzn.to/Yv2ALs
    20 Jun 2013, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • Shaun Connell
    , contributor
    Comments (357) | Send Message
     
    Sounds good. I'll buy your book because I'm sick of being attacked by other Austrians/libertarians because I'm not a hyperinflationist. Good to see there are more of us.
    20 Jun 2013, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • user92718
    , contributor
    Comments (177) | Send Message
     
    Doug,
    I've been averaging and keep losing.
    Iam not sure when I'll start seeing green in my portfoloio.
    I just gave up on gold and silver, and not sure if I haveto sell with ahuge loss now!
    20 Jun 2013, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (3019) | Send Message
     
    You average into an allocation. A falling price means of course you are losing if you started any time since September 2011 for gold and September 2010 for silver. I don't have any clients selling who bought during that time-frame. They are or have built a "position" that, based on my research anyway, is expected to do much better in the coming years.

     

    If you sell for a huge loss now, you have many years of a write off. But what has the propensity to move higher at this point in time? If you were to just be introduced to the stock market and metals market, would an investment like the DOW that just hit new highs or an investment that has been beaten down like gold and silver have the better opportunity moving forward?

     

    For those who are bullish on stocks, that too is part of a diversified portfolio and proper asset allocation. My clients don't take all their money and buy gold. In my book I recommended a 10% physical and 10% miners and 80% for other assets. I am a bit higher with those percentages today for the metals and lean more heavily towards silver than gold.
    20 Jun 2013, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • user92718
    , contributor
    Comments (177) | Send Message
     
    Well, I feel the pain because I don't own physical.
    I just own gold and silver etfs that I can wach them every day losing!
    20 Jun 2013, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (3019) | Send Message
     
    Understood user. I try to coach my clients to not watch the price daily. Of course they have to be confident where the price is headed in the future. But I tell them this is a tortoise vs. hare approach to investing, and that the physical represents insurance more than an investment.

     

    As long as you are not using leverage, and have the proper asset allocation to the metals, then concentrate on other things. Of course, if you believed in gold, an idea might be to sell the etf's and lock in your losses and write off's, and then buy the physical. Obviously you should consult your tax adviser first. Naturally, some reading this might view it as investment advice. It is not. I just give people things to think about that can possibly turn a negative into a positive, using the tax code and some brain power.
    20 Jun 2013, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • DeepValueLover
    , contributor
    Comments (8683) | Send Message
     
    When gold goes up: silence.

     

    The minute gold goes down: "I told you so"

     

    Gold goes back up: silence again.

     

    ...and the beat goes on...
    20 Jun 2013, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • DeepValueLover
    , contributor
    Comments (8683) | Send Message
     
    Faber: Wealthy
    Schiff: Wealthy
    Rogers: Super Wealthy
    Sinclair: Wealthy
    Paulson: Super Duper Wealthy
    Einhorn: Super Wealthy

     

    If they give us "their view" it will be from their yachts.
    20 Jun 2013, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • user92718
    , contributor
    Comments (177) | Send Message
     
    Doug,
    Do you think today's drop in PM is a bottom?
    20 Jun 2013, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • idkmybffjill
    , contributor
    Comments (1689) | Send Message
     
    Take out the first 4. They aren't that wealthy.

     

    The last 2...fair enough.

     

    However,
    Buffett: Wealthiest of them all - no gold.
    20 Jun 2013, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • Tao Jaxx
    , contributor
    Comments (1368) | Send Message
     
    No disrespect but I can't believe you advocate dollar cost averaging in such a market! There's a name for that: it's called "catching a falling knife".
    Gold was worth $800 in 2008 (so, not that far back) before all the Armageddon hullaballoo. Now that this Armageddon thingy has deflated, it's headed back there, period.
    Forget all that chartist voodoo science about support here then here then there, it all failed.
    Gold is repriced as Mr.Market just fell out of bed and realized that all that hyperinflation malarkey was just that, phony baloney. Massive global deleveraging threatens to trigger deflation.
    Deflation means "cash is king" so please forget about shiny metals, it's hazardous to financial health in this environment.
    My best guess is gold is headed to three digit prices and will sit there for a while: plenty of time for $-cost averaging by then.
    20 Jun 2013, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (3019) | Send Message
     
    user, I don't think anyone can predict or call an exact bottom. Dollar cost averaging into one's allocation takes away the guessing game somewhat. My next article will have an 80% probability, based on my research, of higher prices coming quite soon. It should be finished by tomorrow as I was waiting for this smack down today. Actually hope we get a continuation down through tomorrow.
    20 Jun 2013, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • user92718
    , contributor
    Comments (177) | Send Message
     
    Do you think today's drop in PM is a bottom?
    20 Jun 2013, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • The_Hammer
    , contributor
    Comments (4065) | Send Message
     
    DVL, it is amazing how chest thumping grows and gets louder near peaks or bottoms. Tried all day to buy some physical at a reasonable prem to Fed and bankster induced smack down spot. Unsuccessful.
    Dollar strong. Wait til it turns down. This insanity is no different than the trump-wantabees waiting in lines 7-8 years ago buying up several condos at any price with someone elses money or the idiots justifying internet stock prices with eyeballs.
    Same attitude displayed by realtors and spec home buyers in mid 2000's and so called get rich day traders in late 1999-2000.
    The Bernank will be running for the exits come early 2014. the guy is a complete misguided fool that is leading the mass fools off the cliff.
    20 Jun 2013, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • Jason Burack
    , contributor
    Comments (1764) | Send Message
     
    Buffett tried to corner the silver market about a decade ago and he was ordered by the government to get out.
    20 Jun 2013, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • Jason Burack
    , contributor
    Comments (1764) | Send Message
     
    Gold in the triple digits would bankrupt >50% of primary gold miners currently producing and take a very large percentage of supply offline. This is in the face of rising demand for actual metal not paper gold. Despite this paper sell off, the demand for actual metal continues to rise out of Asia. This is a manipulated market. I'm catching as many falling knives as I can and buying metal, and taking it out of the system. Miners are producing metal now for well below production cost.
    20 Jun 2013, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • rharr04
    , contributor
    Comments (29) | Send Message
     
    Being early is the same thing as being wrong. Of course, they also say "buy when there is blood in the streets...even if it is your own."
    20 Jun 2013, 07:22 PM Reply Like
  • jackscure
    , contributor
    Comments (43) | Send Message
     
    RE: My next article will be a bullish one, due out in the next 48 hours. Good to know-- I'm tired and beaten. :)
    21 Jun 2013, 01:14 AM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (3019) | Send Message
     
    Tao Jaxx, no disrespect, but dollar cost averaging into an allocation is what works in stocks the same as it does for metals. It's a smart way to invest that gives you an overall better price, assuming, and this is where we obviously disagree, the metals (or stocks if one is investing in them) will be moving higher. Funny thing is, they always do in the end. So when you start dollar cost averaging in, is the only caveat. It hasn't hurt many who have invested in gold at lower prices and time will tell about those who have recently been buying this current leg down.

     

    The only thing hazardous to the financial health in this environment is an out of control Fed and it's head who didn't see 2007 coming, was bailed out by taxpayers and unprecedented actions (see Fed balance sheet before 2007 compared to today), and now people all of a sudden believe in tapering and a perfect unwinding of QE in the future and GDP will rise while unemployment falls. We'll see how that works out soon enough.

     

    By the way, I am dollar bullish still and have always been in the deflation camp via this continued credit contraction. But this time (next few years) things will be different with gold, compared to 2007/2008 era. But the main reason for gold's rise won't be what you or most others think it is.
    21 Jun 2013, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (3019) | Send Message
     
    Get some sleep jackscure. :-)
    21 Jun 2013, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • sasime2
    , contributor
    Comments (32) | Send Message
     
    Doug, when you see deflation, is it US centric ?.. Because we in India are seeing 15-18% food inflation gov says it 8% but we know better as we do our grocery shopping- power tarrifs being hiked , fuel keeps going up almost every month so cant see any deflation coming here....... BTW eagerly waiting for your article on gold/silver....
    21 Jun 2013, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (3019) | Send Message
     
    Sasime, I really haven't looked at India. I do see contraction from the excesses wherever they existed. Prices of some things rising don't really paint the entire picture or my definition of inflation. Many variables involved. Eventually inflation will come and as a result, higher prices. But when and how fast of a rise and how much will governments interfere? Short answer.
    21 Jun 2013, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • sasime2
    , contributor
    Comments (32) | Send Message
     
    i suggest you please take a look at us to form a more informed opinion.. Almost every thing that touches our day to day life is going up here except many be where gov imposes price controls . housing market is unaffordable to average Indian middle class. 60 % of our population is spending 60% income on food alone this is true. And we are a billion plus people. The world economy is lot more interlinked now a days all markets move in tandem. So any one forming a deflation/inflation theory should look east for sure. For now it appears we are absorbing wests inflation due to hot money flows into our economies and counter money printed by our RBI (reserve bank of india) to fight dollar appreciation(our Indian Rupee dipped to historic lows this week). People are revolting slowly but surely like in Brazil. Thanks for your reply.
    21 Jun 2013, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • The_Hammer
    , contributor
    Comments (4065) | Send Message
     
    Some things? Like things we need to consume everyday?

     

    Sasime what do indians think of US dollar?
    23 Jun 2013, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • sasime2
    , contributor
    Comments (32) | Send Message
     
    Yes food prices are uncontrollable.. chicken, eggs, pulses(lentils), milk, fruits, vegetable all prices only heading north... even though we are a largely vegetarian country, whoever consumes meat has given up eating meat as its just keep sky rocketing in price, fruits are almost out of menu for average Indian family... People have been forced to consume lesser milk each day even though we are the largest producer of milk in world...

     

    "Sasime what do indians think of US dollar?"
    average Indians don't care or know about how dollar's effects their life except for may be the fuel price and may be IT industry is a bit happy when dollar goes up against rupee.. all they now see is inflation and gold as their protection long term insurance for them and their posterity...
    23 Jun 2013, 07:49 PM Reply Like
  • RM13
    , contributor
    Comments (816) | Send Message
     
    Majority of the 'experts' will have to admit that they are wrong for the gold/silver market to bottom. Plus, all the chatter of the bottom should stop. That's the real bottom:).
    20 Jun 2013, 08:18 AM Reply Like
  • tom_t
    , contributor
    Comments (273) | Send Message
     
    They'll just say "we're going to be right eventually." Like a dart-throwing monkey!
    20 Jun 2013, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • The Geoffster
    , contributor
    Comments (4013) | Send Message
     
    It would appear that the Bernanke has resurrected the fiat for the time being.
    20 Jun 2013, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • harrison1988
    , contributor
    Comments (28) | Send Message
     
    If this 19/20 support holds, Avi Gilbert is a freaking genius. He's been calling that as a short/midrange low for months now.
    20 Jun 2013, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • eagle1003
    , contributor
    Comments (1571) | Send Message
     
    AVI is no genius. He always hedges his calls so matter which way it goes, he can say he predicted that possibility. People tend to remember only the prediction that comes true and then he looks like he got it right.
    20 Jun 2013, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • remy1234
    , contributor
    Comments (26) | Send Message
     
    Many of these guys are like Ackman. They were right once or twice and then they and everyone else believes they are right about everything else. Don't forget these guys also have their own "brands". You have to stick with your story when you are peddling newsletter subscritions and fund management (gloom, kaboom, etc.)
    20 Jun 2013, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • jbilik
    , contributor
    Comments (15) | Send Message
     
    I have been watching Avi's calls for over a year, he has been on most of the time and does not make excuses. His probability approach sounds like cover but is actually quite logical.
    20 Jun 2013, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (3524) | Send Message
     
    Has Avi left SA ? I don't get a notification on Sunday like I used to.
    23 Jun 2013, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • Tao Jaxx
    , contributor
    Comments (1368) | Send Message
     
    Did he really?
    23 Jun 2013, 10:13 PM Reply Like
  • june1234
    , contributor
    Comments (2689) | Send Message
     
    Any number of ways credit bubble out there can pop Watch copper. Chinese use it heavily as collateral throughout their financial system . If it goes under 3 could mean problems for the worlds 2nd largest economy's financial system.
    20 Jun 2013, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4518) | Send Message
     
    No fear Gold bugs. I'm sure the real Physical gold market is worth....well...at least $5 more than the screen price.
    20 Jun 2013, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • Jason Burack
    , contributor
    Comments (1764) | Send Message
     
    Only wrong in the near term. Gold had violent corrections during the 70s secular bull market as well from 200 down to 100 (50% drop) before it went to 800. As long as people own gold and silver as part of a diversified portfolio with dividend stocks, cash flow real estate, etc I do not see a problem. The anti-Gold crowd on here is really ridiculous. Long term bull market is not over. There will be repercussions for giving banks all this free money to speculate with down the road.
    20 Jun 2013, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • user92718
    , contributor
    Comments (177) | Send Message
     
    Who agrees with me that gold and silver will end positive (in green) for 2013?
    Please vote Yes if you agree or No if you don't!
    20 Jun 2013, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • evan.prospect
    , contributor
    Comments (694) | Send Message
     
    I think it will end positive. My chief worry is mild to moderate deflation over the near term but the Fed's balance sheet will continue to expand and they can always stay the course of $85 billion print per month or even increase it instead of tapering.

     

    So much of the physical demand is in India, China, and other non-Western countries that it will be interesting to see what those people do...especially in China they don't have a deep and liquid markets so many Chinese either buy real estate or gold to diversify out of Yuan. In India (the world's largest buyer), inflation is still nearly 5% (it was down to -11.31% in May of 1976 during gold's short-term sell in 1975-1976). I imagine Indians will continue to buy it as it declines since inflation is still around 5% and they don't want to miss a buying opportunity for themselves or for the next wedding season.

     

    As for me, I just bought some GDX today and am thinking about buying SLW.
    20 Jun 2013, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • machiavelli
    , contributor
    Comments (514) | Send Message
     
    user92718, are you trolling goldbugs? LOL! Seriously, if you are not then I am thinking you are not smart enough to pick your investments (based on your comments postings) so sell most of your PM ETFs and diversify and stop making so many cringe-worthy comments or suck it up and take the pain because that is what you get when your critical thinking fails you.
    21 Jun 2013, 04:59 AM Reply Like
  • Zigster
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    the best gold article on SA: http://seekingalpha.co...
    20 Jun 2013, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • Whitehawk
    , contributor
    Comments (3129) | Send Message
     
    The real rout was in the Pt market - I still haven't gone long, but $1350 is a multiyear floor and I am looking at its structural integrity. All I can say is that China's latest industrial and manufacturing demand has a material effect, as it also has had on copper, at a multiyear low. I am a buyer of copper and miners at choice entries going forward, but no rush after the rout.

     

    I have been calling for $1200/18-19 gold/silver for months here on SA, based on technicals and sentiment (ok, "in the paper market").
    20 Jun 2013, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • Tao Jaxx
    , contributor
    Comments (1368) | Send Message
     
    I'm a buyer of copper at a buck fifty, where it's headed. Need to sell it at three bucks first.
    Will do that once I cover my gold shorts in the three digits, so sometime in the next twelve-eighteen months.
    I'm a slow hand lol
    20 Jun 2013, 04:52 PM Reply Like
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