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Following both supply chain and sales checks, BMO joins Pac Crest in asserting BB10 (BBRY -1.4%)...

Following both supply chain and sales checks, BMO joins Pac Crest in asserting BB10 (BBRY -1.4%) channel inventories are rising. "Last quarter, we assumed 300k–400k of sell-through on 1M of sell- in for BB 10 devices. We believe May could have an even larger ... discrepancy," says analyst Tim Long. He thinks strong sell-in could let FQ1 sales beat expectations, but doesn't see the momentum lasting. Long also believes FQ1 sub losses could total 2M, and sees falling emerging markets carrier ARPUs pressuring service revenue. Raymond James, meanwhile, thinks BB10 sell-through "might have been slower than expected," and forecasts sub losses of 3M. (Bernstein) (RBC)
Comments (37)
  • jaggpaul
    , contributor
    Comments (11) | Send Message
     
    The subs have to go down since the new customers does not count in the sub count. BlackBerry had bad experience with PlayBook they will not over produce simple as that. But it's hard for Analyst to accept. Do all these people loose there homes and cars and jobs if blackberry reports a profit. They are playing with Market. Stupidity at the best.
    21 Jun 2013, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • Tony (long)
    , contributor
    Comments (70) | Send Message
     
    Actually the subs still get counted even if they don't provide an ongoing revenue stream like in the past... They are still counted as they may buy Apps and download movies and music etc (something that will improve with BB10 - more App sales and downloads versus BB7 devices).
    21 Jun 2013, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • logicalman
    , contributor
    Comments (763) | Send Message
     
    jaggpaul,
    I agree with you 100%, however when $$$ is involved its a dog eat dog world and I doubt if that is about to change. The only thing we can do is to take advantage of the rats causing dips, and buy more of what we believe in!!!
    21 Jun 2013, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • alpha_69
    , contributor
    Comments (12) | Send Message
     
    Wait till Q3 report (Q2 partially as well) when subs will include all the active BBM users on iOS and Android!. Reported subs will grow in double digits.
    21 Jun 2013, 10:43 PM Reply Like
  • stockaudit
    , contributor
    Comments (60) | Send Message
     
    Nice timing of commentary!
    Friday afternoon to drive price down!
    Manipulation?
    21 Jun 2013, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • LYogi
    , contributor
    Comments (1990) | Send Message
     
    Going to admit I'm a touch worried.

     

    I see $BBRY being a great long term investment but I also see the short term (read: 6-12 months) being quite rocky.
    21 Jun 2013, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • gwynfryn
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    So what's new, LY? Opportunity knocks!
    22 Jun 2013, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • mikebator
    , contributor
    Comments (797) | Send Message
     
    What's up with this? Games and Q1 Blackberry 1 shorts 0. Unfortunately the win will be spun and the double down games will continue. Long BBRY.
    21 Jun 2013, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • Cliff Hilton
    , contributor
    Comments (1423) | Send Message
     
    Better than expected sales. No one knows about the future yet. We will receive guidance from BBRY on the 28th. Seven days and ticking.
    BBRY not dead on arrival, making money, phones well received, 89% would recommend them to a friend,...
    21 Jun 2013, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • gchaput
    , contributor
    Comments (114) | Send Message
     
    "RBC raises BlackBerry 10 sales estimates, says 14 million phones to ship by the end of 2013"

     

    Here is what the Financial Post states today:
    http://bit.ly/11DrpGB

     

    "BlackBerry probably delivered 7.7 million smartphones to customers in the three months ended in May, a Bloomberg survey of analysts shows."
    21 Jun 2013, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • sundancer
    , contributor
    Comments (7) | Send Message
     
    @ Tim Long:

     

    Last quarter your assumptions were completely contradicted by BBRY CEO who stated sell through was 67-75% of the 1M units shipped, or double your estimate. Who should we believe?

     

    Last Q the Z10 was released in only 20% of world market by end of quarter. Of course May Q will have a larger 'discrepancy' of channels being filled. There now 170 carriers vs. Only 50 who had them in February, and now there are two phones. I can see it now how some 'analyst' will highlight that 1M units not sold through is triple the amount in February even though units sold through are 5x and carrier market tripled.

     

    Long BBRY
    21 Jun 2013, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • Tony (long)
    , contributor
    Comments (70) | Send Message
     
    Yep Tim Long used to be bullish on BlackBerry when they had outdated products and the share price tanked for 2 years... Why would anybody in their right mind follow his advice now that BlackBerry is releasing 6 competitive devices throughout the year? Not to mention BES10 to manage all BYOD devices to provide a solid revenue stream... Good time to BUY I think!

     

    See link for Tim Long's previous call on RIM at the time... Shoulda been shorting lol

     

    http://on.barrons.com/...
    21 Jun 2013, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • pjdacs
    , contributor
    Comments (452) | Send Message
     
    Some people got burned so bad, their emotions still cloud their judgment. If you take away the BlackBerry name, and look at the fundamentals, most would call it a steal at today's price.

     

    I lost at $60, but got over that at $7.00.
    21 Jun 2013, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • lovetobbq
    , contributor
    Comments (57) | Send Message
     
    That's hilarious. Do the opposite and you'll do well...priceless.
    23 Jun 2013, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • lovetobbq
    , contributor
    Comments (57) | Send Message
     
    I'm long until Long says to go long...then I'm out.
    23 Jun 2013, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • goofyfoot5
    , contributor
    Comments (41) | Send Message
     
    You know, this is not gauging the first weekend of a movie release. My sense is that sales to individuals will disappoint, corporate sales good which is OK for now. I see the product and services sales steadily gain strength with service revs on a steady upward pace as well. Unlike any other wireless system, Blackberry delivers what business and more individual want and need as they did +-15 years ago.
    I own a z10. You don't have to go past the Hub function to want it.
    21 Jun 2013, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • LYogi
    , contributor
    Comments (1990) | Send Message
     
    I agree.
    21 Jun 2013, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • pat45
    , contributor
    Comments (290) | Send Message
     
    never looked at z10--how is it?...been waiting for the Q10...finally out today!
    21 Jun 2013, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • LYogi
    , contributor
    Comments (1990) | Send Message
     
    I bought the Q10 first, loved it, but then returned it because the Z10 with the flick typing and larger screen was calling to me.

     

    I haven't looked back since. Z10 rocks.
    21 Jun 2013, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • joeycard
    , contributor
    Comments (252) | Send Message
     
    True big big big and long long time user of the BOLD QWERTY and was waiting for the Q10, but tried the Z10 to get used to the OS, but the 10.1 update has been a dream with the 10.2 up soon makes the Z10 rocks ! A10 come
    soon
    21 Jun 2013, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • Crispin_in_Waterloo
    , contributor
    Comments (998) | Send Message
     
    If subs are down, is it not because people are buying BB10 devices?

     

    If the sales are 50-50 BB owners, then the number of people buying a BBRY device is double that of lost subscriptions, not so?

     

    Let's watch the sales numbers to see what the ratio of subs losses is to device sales. The number of subs is large enough that it will play the same way for the next few quarters.

     

    This ratio may change when the BB7 device prices are dropped. There is every intention of retaining them and they have to have a sub.
    21 Jun 2013, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3079) | Send Message
     
    That is what I will be looking into on the figures. Percentage of new users, percentage of upgrades, and overall user base size. In the longer term the user base is the most important metric.
    21 Jun 2013, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • TS Nelson
    , contributor
    Comments (266) | Send Message
     
    BMO reiterated an "underperform" with 9$ price target, fairly ridiculous.
    I think we are entering the territory where the negative analysts just don't to want to admit that they were wrong and cling to their statement until evidence (i. e. audited numbers) proves them wrong.
    21 Jun 2013, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • pjdacs
    , contributor
    Comments (452) | Send Message
     
    It should be noted that BMO (who told me to buy @ $60) holds 5.8 million shares and has increased that last quarter. Sounds like an outfit that doesn't have a clue!
    21 Jun 2013, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • pat45
    , contributor
    Comments (290) | Send Message
     
    take cramers advise and buy TSLA at 110 and bbry at 12..woops tsla down to 100 and bbry trades 14-17 never hits 12. Earns next week for bbry..and today first day 4 Q10 phone..will check out phone...I much prefer bbry stock
    21 Jun 2013, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • dougiann
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    I'm learning a lot about the market after investing a sizable bit of $ on BBRY. I've come to realize that a small investor like me stands no chance against the market manipulators / hedge funds / etc. It's very disheartening - so much for a level playing field. I'm staying long BBRY to see this out and hoping will all fingers and toes crossed that these "analysts" get crushed next Friday - almost to the point that I care more about them losing everything rather than my meager profits. I feel that the report could go 1 of two ways - CRUSH every projection (I feel Heins has a knowingly smirk on his face) or will get hammered - I don't see it falling anywhere in between - if it is mediocre - the shorts will pound the stock down to single digits. Here's hoping for the best.
    21 Jun 2013, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3079) | Send Message
     
    It helps to realize that we are just along for the ride. Hopefully we get on the right train and the right time, and we don't end up in a train wreck. The other thing is to be very patient. If you are a long term investor, then you should follow the planned timeline the company has put forward. The only chart that really matters in the long run is the one that shows earnings and revenues.

     

    Concerning BBRY I would not expect much until September. The company timeline shows they are still in the process of rolling out BB10 devices. At the point when no new BB7 devices are being sold, then the company will have completed one phase of transition, though I would expect them to be working on another phase then. If you try to follow week to week moves when the options volume is this high, then you will see many moves all over the place. Goldman Sachs had a note out to clients that there were less than 200k shares available for shorting BBRY; the deck is loaded as heavy as it could ever be. Many short positions may be concerned about getting it wrong in the near term.
    21 Jun 2013, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • gwynfryn
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    Well dou, you've learnt an important lesson, insofar that all these recommendations are not done from the kindness of the analysts' hearts; they expect to make money from you. You may have come across recommendations that you never put more than 5% of your betting money (or investing money, if you want to delude yourself) in any one stock, and I concur, unless of course you're onto a sure thing. Then, all you need to understand that there is no such thing as a sure thing...
    22 Jun 2013, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • TS Nelson
    , contributor
    Comments (266) | Send Message
     
    @dougiann

     

    As a small investor, you don't stand a chance if you step on the pitch of the hedge funds, trying to profit from short term price differences.
    But if you buy cheap and hold, you are safe.
    21 Jun 2013, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • leejayh
    , contributor
    Comments (7) | Send Message
     
    And the hit parade continues. Completely unsubstantiated opinions and estimates, designed to create doubt. Buy on the dips. The momentum will continue. At some point, the market will stop listening to these people as they get proven to be wrong and manipulators.
    21 Jun 2013, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • grumbles
    , contributor
    Comments (91) | Send Message
     
    more big block trades after hours at higher prices. shorts, i hope you pay a massive price next friday.
    21 Jun 2013, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • fdmicmul
    , contributor
    Comments (15) | Send Message
     
    The part that pisses me off is that these guys already have their excuse as to why BBRY will beat on the numbers. You keep hearing that BBRY is channel stuffing, that the only reason their numbers will be good is because they are stuffing the carriers full of inventory, counting it as units shipped, but actual sell through is extremely low. And the brutal part is people will probably believe it. I've been paying EXTREMELY close attention to this stock since February and have been very impressed with Heins and his team. To think that he would increase production, as Misek has said and other analysts have agreed, just to channel stuff inventory so that one quarter of sales looks good is asinine. How he has managed BlackBerry's cash balances, and found a market for outdated inventory in emerging markets has been brilliant. To think someone this prudent would blow money on increasing inventory to improve financial statements short term, only to be written down later... MIND BLOWING. That douche Faucette even challenged Heins to disclose sell through numbers. But people listen to analysts so they will believe it.
    22 Jun 2013, 01:20 AM Reply Like
  • gwynfryn
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    Yes, a lot do, fd; I suppose it's like astrology: people remember the bits that were predicted correctly, but overlook the more numerous failures. Asimov wrote a great analysis of astrology, and established that, statistically, it is no more accurate than the burp rate of Nile hippos, and barfing marsh gas pretty much sums up the activities of most of these analysts, eh?
    22 Jun 2013, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • Crazy Mazy
    , contributor
    Comments (434) | Send Message
     
    It would be nice if these bologna Analysts would state which stores they contacted and how many? Of course they won't say that because they didn't check any stores they just made it up!
    23 Jun 2013, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • Crazy Mazy
    , contributor
    Comments (434) | Send Message
     
    There is not a shred of evidence to prove what BMO and PAC crest says, so why are people even worrying about what they say! Just ignore!
    23 Jun 2013, 08:47 PM Reply Like
  • User 12488161
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Hey if there is one thing that BMO and PAC know well, it is underperformance. They are world class and the resident experts.
    24 Jun 2013, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • Crazy Mazy
    , contributor
    Comments (434) | Send Message
     
    right on and BMO has the sales figures to prove it right?
    23 Jun 2013, 08:48 PM Reply Like
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