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Apple (AAPL) has its price target cut to $405 from $420 by Jefferies' Peter Misek who says...

Apple (AAPL) has its price target cut to $405 from $420 by Jefferies' Peter Misek who says elevated inventory levels indicate the company may cut H2 iPhone builds as it preps the potential release of the iPhone 5S this fall and the iPhone 6 in 2014. Misek sees iPhone builds in FQ3 of 25-30M from 40-45M previously. "Memory module makers have recently been reallocating orders in Q3 away from Apple and toward emerging market players." Shares -1.3% premarket.
Comments (33)
  • This too: Walmart permanently drops iPhone 4S price to $39, iPhone 5 to $129
    http://engt.co/11ImgNp
    24 Jun 2013, 08:14 AM Reply Like
  • iPhone prices drop every year before the new model is released.
    24 Jun 2013, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  • And "Memory module makers have recently been reallocating orders in Q3 away from Apple and toward emerging market players." Is a variation on the "supply chain sources" and "industry sources", non-specific "facts" that this analyst uses to justify his analysis.

     

    That said, let's consider Apple supply chain logistics. Apple orders memory modules in batches from suppliers. They fill the order and then move on to the next "market player" order. None of the supply chain companies have Apple as a sole supplier and I would hope that logistics would have memory supplies in place for a ramp of new products this fall.

     

    Tim Cook has said not to put stock in supply chain rumor. So who should we believe? Tim Cook who is an insider, providing guidance, or an analyst, who must be kept at arms length, or be subjected to insider rules. Based on performance we should bet on Misek right?, because he's due to be right sometime. And against Tim Cook because he's due to be wrong??

     

    The analyst is being characterized as nutty by others. He is super bullish on Blackberry and super bearish on Apple. He thinks Apple and Blackberry should be compared to one another. After all they are both in the same food group. And, nutrient wise everyone knows that blackberries have a higher antioxidant value than apples. Value investors take note.
    24 Jun 2013, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • Why would anybody cut price target from 420 to 405, which is within the margin of error even if one believes those numbers in the first place, other than to make the news?
    24 Jun 2013, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • That's what analysts do, they have clients. I think peeps will wake up on day and say, '" Apple can't grow anymore so it's just a dividend paying stock and I want growth, ergo I'm cashing in and going with Blackberry. Blackberry owns QNX software which can be found in automobiles, high speed trains in Germany and France and in all MRI machines in hospitals. They also have Blackberry Messenger which recent analysis has it pegged at between $1.5 billion and $7.6 billion. And Blackberry Money which also will add to the bottom line. I see BBRY as easily doubling or tripling from these levels and I see Apple going back to it's yearly low of $390 and even touching $385. :)
    24 Jun 2013, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • Yes there is no doubt that (AAPL) is in trouble. Been a shareholder since 2003 and cannot see a recovery in fortunes till a China Mobile deal is announced in the fall.

     

    Sold off 150 shares last week and moved them into (TSLA) which is gearing up for another mega short squeeze.

     

    Hopefully will add to my (AAPL) holdings in August for what must surely be a runup in the second half of the year.
    24 Jun 2013, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • Not Misek again....why even give him space on this site?
    24 Jun 2013, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • He likes BBRY to get to $22 so he has my vote of confidence. In fact I see Blackberry getting to between $30 and $60 by December. There's going to be a short squeeze because all of the shares that can be shorted (171 million) have been shorted! Zip, zero, nada, there are no shares available. And ALL those shares HAVE to be bought back. BBRY has earnings coming out this week and pay attention to this: Blackberry is hiring and they just opened a new office in Manhattan. what city on the planet is one of the most expensive to rent from? Manhattan! BBRY wouldn't be hiring and renting in Manhattan if they aren't going to be having a blow-out quarter.
    24 Jun 2013, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • Well, it appears that Misek shot too low with this one. Apple is already below $405 this morning and certainly is heading down more. Why doesn't this guy take a real stand and say $402.50 is the new target? Or how about $399? That would get the folks at SA to print off a Market Current!

     

    It is a shame that this company has nothing that consumers want to buy.
    It is a shame that this company has not cash on hand to operate with.

     

    What a garbage company!

     

    I am long (AAPL) and disagree with everything I said above.
    24 Jun 2013, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • Right. Misek moved the target too low, it still within its margin of error.
    He should have moved the target below $300.00
    24 Jun 2013, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • aardvak3: Exactly. His friend Glen YEung of Citi, will be the next. They work in tandem.
    24 Jun 2013, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • Read this news flash carefully and answer this... How did " the potential release of the iPhone 5S this fall..." become bad news?

     

    Oh yeah, any good news from Apple will result in its share dropping because analysts and media are required to spin it negatively.
    24 Jun 2013, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • I starting to buy 1.000 shares today at $402,- !! For long!. Latest in November someone will read this comment, the Share price will be by $550,- and I'm not a Professional analyst!. But the professional analyst JEFFERIES that downgrade Apple to $405,-will receive a nice letter from my Lawyer in November, for making false predictions, we must put an end to these people.

     

    The Share markets look every time more like a gambler's paradise Casino and poker as a Serious institution for serious investors, after than he wondering that nobody buy Shares!.
    The Governments are required very urgently to resolve the actual situation; the first is that the small investors must have the same right to start negotiating Share at the same time like the Investments funds.
    The second the shorts and products suspicious origin that only serves to waste and lose money must be banned! We must return to the roots, or else this is going out of hand.
    24 Jun 2013, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • Warren, I feel your pain.
    24 Jun 2013, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • Directly from Apple Q2013 conference:
    Take the Smartphone market for example, IDC estimates that this market will double between 2012 and 2016 to an incredible 1.4 billion units annually, and Gartner estimates that the tablet market is growing at an even faster rate from 125 million units in 2012 to a projected 375 million by 2016.
    24 Jun 2013, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • Peter Oppenheimer

     

    Thank you, Tim. We are pleased to report the results of our second fiscal quarter. We established new March quarter records for iPhone and iPad sales and new all-time record for iTunes sales, leading to Apple’s strongest March quarter revenue ever.
    24 Jun 2013, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • What happened to the price increase by the other Analyst (from BMG) - it did not matter?
    Or probably they did not check their e-mail that Mr. Misery is going down on price?
    24 Jun 2013, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • Price increases do not matter much for apple, market seems to only listen to those who have negative things to say.
    24 Jun 2013, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • Seriously, he moved his target from 420 to 405. Sounds like someone eager for attention. Stock can move that much and more in one day. Also, he is basing this on supplier checks? This is why no one takes these guys seriously. Wish I could buy more at these levels but am maxed out. Unless new products and refreshes over next 12 months are a complete disaster, this stock will be back to 550 at some point during that time.
    24 Jun 2013, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • Misek had a price target of 900 in dec 2012 ;-)
    28 Jun 2013, 08:09 AM Reply Like
  • I’d like to begin with iPhone. We sold 37.4 million iPhones compared to 35.1 million in the year-ago quarter, an increase of over 2.3 million or 7%. We ended the quarter with about 11.6 million total iPhones in channel inventory, a sequential increase of about 1 million iPhones and we ended the quarter within our target range of four to six weeks of iPhone channel inventory.
    24 Jun 2013, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • iPad, we were thrilled to sell 19.5 million iPads during the quarter compared to 11.8 million in the year ago quarter, that’s an increase of 7.7 million units or 65%.

     

    iPad experienced very strong year-over-year growth in every operating segment, particularly in Greater China and Japan where sales more than doubled year over year. Both iPad and iPad mini continue to be extremely popular, and we were pleased with sales of both.

     

    We were able to sell significantly more iPad minis in the March quarter than in the December launch quarter and to expand availability to China. Customers love the combination of experience, performance, and size that iPad mini offers, and our early market research indicates that the overwhelming majority of iPad mini purchasers are first-time iPad customers.

     

    We ended the quarter with about 4.8 million iPads in channel inventory, a sequential increase of about 1.4 million. All of the sequential increase was attributable to iPad mini. As we discussed previously, we were not able to meet demand for iPad mini in the December quarter and entered the March quarter below our target range of channel inventory. This sequential increase places us within our target range of four to six weeks of total iPad channel inventory.
    24 Jun 2013, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • Warren Buffet007: why bring in history, everybody knows them and these people are looking for the "bottom lime" and they are saying that the e.p.s. is not growing any more and so lets dump AAPL as worse then "you name it". Forget about history!
    30 Jun 2013, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • I’d now like to turn to the Apple Retail Stores. Revenue for the quarter was $5.2 billion compared to $4.4 billion in the year ago quarter, an increase of 19%. This growth was fueled primarily by strong sales of iPhone and iPad. We ended the quarter with a total of 402 stores, including a 151 outside the United States. We expect to open about 30 new stores in total in fiscal 2013 and to complete at least 20 store remodels. With an average of 401 stores open in the March quarter, average revenue per store was $13.1 million, compared to $12.2 million in the year ago quarter. Retail segment income was $1.1 billion.

     

    We hosted 91 million visitors to our stores during the quarter compared to 85 million in the year-ago quarter. That translates the 17,500 visitors per store per week. Total company gross margin was 37.5%, which was at the low end of our guidance range of 37.5% to 38.5%. Operating expenses were $3.8 billion and included $488 million in stock based compensation expense. OI&E was $347 million and the tax rate for the quarter was 26%
    24 Jun 2013, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • Second, we are increasing our quarterly dividend from $2.65 to $3.05 per share, a 15% increase. We plan to review our quarterly dividend payment annually. Our Board of Directors has declared a dividend of $3.05 per common share payable on May 16, 2013, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on May 13, 2013. We are very proud that Apple is among the largest dividend payers in the world with annual payments of about $11 billion!!!!.
    24 Jun 2013, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • Going forward, we still see a significant opportunity in China, it’s a great market. We have 11 stores there. we expect to double those in less than two years. We have added about 8,000 iPhone point-of-sales in the indirect channel to about 19,000 today and we obviously have a plan to add more and further grow our distribution, December is obviously too low currently. We’re also innovating in our online, with our online store there in adding different functionality to the store.
    24 Jun 2013, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • The world market is on short again, canceling your orders "Stop loss", and these guys will make less money with the shorts.
    24 Jun 2013, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • Misek better Pessi-mistek. No - Apple is not going lower than 390 and will see 5oo+ this year. Those analysts act with vested interest. They exactly know the unique strenght of Apple and hope for a low step in Price before August take off ...
    read the message well of such cheap Desinformation.
    24 Jun 2013, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • AAPL has NOT bottomed out yet, Samsung is a major obstacle for AAPL, they're capturing market share from AAPL globally, and aapl will try to fend them off in developing countries with cheaper gadgets, which isn't that profitable, they're facing a problem, and the problem is, that they had tremendous growth in a short period of time, and hard to find a solution to cure this problem
    24 Jun 2013, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • Samsung last year supplied about $5B worth of components to Apple. They will be losing all of Apple's business once supply contracts expire. Who is that going to hurt?

     

    S4 projected sales numbers are coming down dramatically and apparently they have flopped in China. In North America iPhone sales are still king.

     

    The trick for Samsung is how to retain customers. I have had three family members switch to iPhones in the last 6 months. Two were Samsung previously and one was Blackberry. They are trying to get me to dump my LG for iPhone. I use a cellular ipad and a dumb phone.

     

    They are now sticky Apple. They are updating computers and one is updating a MacBook Pro to an Air and the other two are going with an Air from a Lenovo laptop.

     

    A friend bought her son a Note 2 for Xmas and is now on a 2nd replacement. Each of the previous versions quit responding. The fallout is that she has just bought a new phone, an iPhone. Quality issues are coming back to bite Samsung.

     

    AT&T CEO on CNBC, when the interviewer tried to paint Apple phone costs as an issue, the CEO praised the phones ability to help them gain and retain customers. Data usage was higher among iPhone users. Churn rates were down. Adoption of new customers was higher for iPhones. Profit per customer was higher.
    24 Jun 2013, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • Android is fragmented , developers have a difficult time integrating for all the platforms.... iOS is cohesive less time code writing aps.....higher adoption and more monies paid out to developers......win win...aapl paid out five billion in 2013 that's why WWDC sold out in 71 seconds ....65 percent of attendees were first timers....
    24 Jun 2013, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • A good rule of thumb on Apple shares is to do the exact opposite of what the analysts recommend.So it looks like it is time to buy again....
    25 Jun 2013, 03:46 AM Reply Like
  • Peter Misek has a poor track record predicting anything related to apple. Would consider his voice one of the best contrarian indicators. When he reduces his price target, you should consider buying and vice versa. This is the guy who had a 900 price target back in dec 2012...
    28 Jun 2013, 07:56 AM Reply Like
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