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The five-year slide in U.S. home prices will end this year, according to a Reuters poll,...

The five-year slide in U.S. home prices will end this year, according to a Reuters poll, followed by the start of a weak recovery in 2013. However, a stagnant 2012 and the meager 1.5% gain expected in 2013 will offer little comfort to the millions of Americans trapped in negative equity — owing more to their mortgage lender, in some cases much more, than their houses are worth.
Comments (26)
  • Josh ODonnell
    , contributor
    Comments (229) | Send Message
     
    Housing wont recover until unemployment gets back below 5%....And even though...whose to say the people working will be able to afford a home anyway...w/ little to no income growth.....

     

    The entire system needs to reset itself...and that will take years...probably wont see housing come back for the long term until 2020...or later. 2013? not happening. Acutally housing wont come back until the US govt debt and USD dollar bubbles both burst...that moment is approaching..
    13 Jan 2012, 08:07 PM Reply Like
  • Cherry Picker
    , contributor
    Comments (383) | Send Message
     
    It would be nice if home values rose if for no other reason than those who believe they are upside down can then believe they are right side up again. Same house--same payment--different mindset. That is unless you're one of those extremely fortunate people who have enough personal wealth and live in a state where you can walk away scot-free and maintain a good credit rating. For everyone else, it's the same house and the same debt or no house at all.

     

    I doubt its going to take until 2020 for housing prices to head up unless you're expecting a population decrease. With the population growing by nearly 1% per year, pressure on the rental market will cause the pendulum to swing the other way once again (as it always has). Most adult children aren't keen to live with mom and dad indefinitely.
    13 Jan 2012, 08:25 PM Reply Like
  • anonymous#12
    , contributor
    Comments (552) | Send Message
     
    Then you better pray that the jobs created are not minimum wage jobs. I have seen jobs growth, but unfortunately on Domino Pizza, McDonalds, Krispy Kreme, Chipotle, Wal Mart....they all have one thing on common...minimum wage jobs. While the high paying jobs are dissapearing, BAC, MS, GS, IBM, LMT, PFE....

     

    Oh, and manufacturing companies like GM, F, CAT, are hiring but at lower wages than before.....

     

    Good luck on the housing recovery....
    13 Jan 2012, 08:34 PM Reply Like
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2198) | Send Message
     
    Rental housing/property, property with mineral rights and undeveloped should improve. Single family home properties will never recover to what they were…that experiment is over.
    13 Jan 2012, 08:38 PM Reply Like
  • apberusdisvet
    , contributor
    Comments (2875) | Send Message
     
    The people polled by Reuters were found at an off-Wall Street strip club party hosted by the NAR.
    13 Jan 2012, 09:18 PM Reply Like
  • TRLowery111
    , contributor
    Comments (105) | Send Message
     
    THis is now the Third year in a row this same article has been run. Next year, next year, next year. I have $10 that says in Jan 2013 we will be right back to saying next year will be different. I have no idea when home prices will go up, in some places thye are alredy going up, but i do know that i have to pay every month whether i own or rent and that will not change regardless of the national avg price of a new or used house. However, the price of oil is looking very bullish given the current supply/demand/geopolit... i would worrry more about your next car than your next house.
    13 Jan 2012, 10:24 PM Reply Like
  • Jackson999
    , contributor
    Comments (468) | Send Message
     
    Wasn't Congress talking about eliminating some or all of the home mortgage deduction? That should help further reduce home prices! [roflol]
    13 Jan 2012, 10:25 PM Reply Like
  • Thomas Smicklas
    , contributor
    Comments (747) | Send Message
     
    As Gary Shilling points out in his 2012 investment scenario.

     

    'If you are planning on selling your home, vacation home or investment homes, do it YESTERDAY".

     

    With the ongoing walkaway.foreclosures, I expect it to be closer to negative 25% through 2013.

     

    Shilling expects another 20% downdraft through 2013, minimum.
    13 Jan 2012, 10:40 PM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9621) | Send Message
     
    Can I buy a housing index call option from you??
    14 Jan 2012, 05:55 AM Reply Like
  • Poor Texan
    , contributor
    Comments (3530) | Send Message
     
    While I agree with the gist of the above comments regarding a very, very slow recovery to housing, there is one joker in the deck for homeowners: inflation. As the dollar depreciates, home prices (not values) should increase while the fixed rate mortgage remains. This could pull some homeowners above water and allow them to bail out. We went through this in the seventies as many thought their homes were appreciating when the price increase was only (approximately) reflecting inflation.
    13 Jan 2012, 11:23 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10328) | Send Message
     
    To me, the elephant in the room is the backlog of foreclosures. Until that market is cleared, there is an overhang with constant pressure providing supply and thus constant downward pressure on prices.

     

    The thing that amazes me is there are millions of renters and new family formations out there that are stuck in an alternative because the banks won't let the foreclosures clear (obviously because they don't want to take the hit to earnings and assets). But if they were to let the market clear, then the reset would happen much, much faster.
    14 Jan 2012, 01:27 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9621) | Send Message
     
    Folks follow this,,,

     

    http://bit.ly/wAiatp
    14 Jan 2012, 05:57 AM Reply Like
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2198) | Send Message
     
    bbro…this…
    http://bit.ly/uuVuaL

     

    think renters not home owners.
    14 Jan 2012, 07:36 AM Reply Like
  • Poor Texan
    , contributor
    Comments (3530) | Send Message
     
    Yes, I've noticed the wrecking ball on quite a few homes lately.:-)
    14 Jan 2012, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2198) | Send Message
     
    @PT…that is what the Irish govt began to do…they are literally razing communities. As one Irish guy I talked to said…'they built 3 homes for every irishman…lunacy.'
    14 Jan 2012, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • Josh ODonnell
    , contributor
    Comments (229) | Send Message
     
    But because the rest of the economy was in a bubble..inflation will NOT raise home prices...Home prices will continue to depreciate through 2015 and further.... The dollar bubble should show signs of popping around that time...along with the US govt. debt bubble. (YOU CAN NOT REINFLATE A BUBBLE ONCE IT HAS BEGUN BURSTING.....NOT EVEN THE FED CAN....THEY CAN PRINT A QUADRILLION MORE DOLLARS...IT WONT MAKE A DENT)

     

    "The thing that amazes me is there are millions of renters and new family formations out there that are stuck in an alternative because the banks won't let the foreclosures clear (obviously because they don't want to take the hit to earnings and assets). But if they were to let the market clear, then the reset would happen much, much faster."----
    Even if that happens though, homes prices won't go back up in the long term...There are just too many NEW foreclosures in the works for the next 5 years....and income growth is dead...so is the job market.

     

    Also keep in mind that the housing bubble that has already begun popping, wont stop for a long time.... The depreciation of home values will continue through 2015... It is a mathematical certainty.
    14 Jan 2012, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • Poor Texan
    , contributor
    Comments (3530) | Send Message
     
    Josh, I guess the real question is are we in a deflationary or inflationary cycle. Since the Fed seems to be accepting a 2 to 3% annual inflation standard (although their inflation computation methodolgy is widely questioned), I've got to accept inflation. This brings into play the effect of replacement cost inflation on home prices. As long as you can buy a house cheaper than you can build one, there will be some demand for existing houses whether they come from sellers or foreclosures. At the same time, the greater the disparity between market price and replacement cost, the greater the incentive to buy, whether for residence or investment. In addition to WMARKW's comment about the backlog of foreclosures, you also have a backlog of homes that owners would like to sell and won't be foreclosed upon. When the market is right, these homes will come on the market but the owners will turn around and buy again (retirees downsizing, relocations, growing families, et al). I don't see the big bubble reinflating but I'm projecting a better market a few years out and 2015 is not too far off to see an increase in demand.
    14 Jan 2012, 08:01 PM Reply Like
  • Mobywhite
    , contributor
    Comments (413) | Send Message
     
    "The depreciation of home values will continue through 2015... It is a mathematical certainty."

     

    Please show me the math if "it is a mathematical certainty". The reality is your just puking poorly thought out opinions with no facts to back them up.
    16 Jan 2012, 02:44 AM Reply Like
  • Swass
    , contributor
    Comments (419) | Send Message
     
    We have heard this every year since housing began to fall.
    15 Jan 2012, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • Josh ODonnell
    , contributor
    Comments (229) | Send Message
     
    Yeah..home prices will continue its fall...through 2015 right around when the the USD bubble will burst... then all hell REALLy breaks loose.
    15 Jan 2012, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • Josh ODonnell
    , contributor
    Comments (229) | Send Message
     
    We aren't in any cycle...Cycles have ended when real(not bubble) growth ended... The Fed has been trying to reinflate the housing bubble..but it wont work...They can print a quadrillion more dollars..it wont make a dent.

     

    Get the world CYCLE out of the equation..There are NO CYCLES here...Growth is over people...Please...your either in denial or dont understand what happened back in 2008...You will see pockets of short term growth here and there because money has to go somewhere...

     

    LONG TERM GROWTH IS OVER..... ITS' NOT GONNA HAPPEN..
    15 Jan 2012, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • Mobywhite
    , contributor
    Comments (413) | Send Message
     
    Please see my comment above.
    16 Jan 2012, 02:45 AM Reply Like
  • Cherry Picker
    , contributor
    Comments (383) | Send Message
     
    Gosh the world ended and no one told me.
    15 Jan 2012, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • Josh ODonnell
    , contributor
    Comments (229) | Send Message
     
    Because this time is different. You will see what I mean in a few years time...

     

    The entire world is just waiting on the USD bubble and US govt. debt bubbles to both pop... Once this happens, the FED won't be able to finance it's debt... The Govt. will be at its knees.... The will have to print money and create 100%%'s in inflation to keep the govt. running...Essentially, they have already begun doing so... Home prices wont go back up for years after the USD bubble pops(which is 2nd after the US govt. debt bubble)... Demand will drop by 40-50%...and the country will be in depression....Also by 2015, (at the current rates Obama has in place) our total US debt will surpass our total US assets(as a whole)..excludiing 115 trillion in unfunded liablities...
    16 Jan 2012, 07:16 PM Reply Like
  • Josh ODonnell
    , contributor
    Comments (229) | Send Message
     
    We also have more people unemployed and underemployed then we did in the 30's(when adjusted for population) Housing wasn't as big of a problem in the 30's as it is today....

     

    The deleveraging, DEFLATION spiral will continue through 2030, as the entire world falls into massive depression...Oil will go to 150 or more as war breaks out with Iran(which I believe is inevitable at this point)...

     

    Will come out of it eventually, and the same insanity will continue until the next bubble pops...
    16 Jan 2012, 07:20 PM Reply Like
  • Josh ODonnell
    , contributor
    Comments (229) | Send Message
     
    Also, if you believe long term growth is going to come back anytime between now and 2030, your just in denial... Bubbles pop...That's what they do...The growth we had in the housing market was all artificial when personal income only grows by 2% y/y and home prices go up 80%... It was inevitable that the bubble would have bursted..It was unsustainable.

     

    Also negative equity will persist for a long time to come...Will see another million foreclosures in 2012-2013...The USD bubble will burst in 2014-2015...

     

    But I could wrong, like some people here think I am, and everything will be all rosy again...Unemployment back below 5%, 250,000 median price for homes, etc.etc.etc...

     

    It aint gonna happen folks.
    16 Jan 2012, 07:28 PM Reply Like
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