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Checks point to "steady" FQ3 (June quarter) iPhone 4/4S sales, but "mixed" iPhone 5 sales, says...

Checks point to "steady" FQ3 (June quarter) iPhone 4/4S sales, but "mixed" iPhone 5 sales, says Oppenheimer's Ittai Kidron, who's cutting his FQ3 and FQ4 estimates for Apple (AAPL -0.3%) while reiterating an Outperform due to optimism about 2H iPhone/iPad refreshes. Kidron now expects 26M FQ3 iPhone sales, less than some others on the Street. His note comes a day after Jefferies' Peter Misek reported of iPhone order cuts and high U.K. channel inventories.
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Comments (7)
  • milehr
    , contributor
    Comments (534) | Send Message
     
    Apple made a small mistake with iPhone5 by deviating the unit's dimensions too far from the Golden Ratio. I hope they understand that this factor affects customers' subconscious decision to buy the product, and will correct the error soon enough.
    25 Jun 2013, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • Keep It Simple
    , contributor
    Comments (487) | Send Message
     
    What?!
    25 Jun 2013, 10:16 PM Reply Like
  • rrosey2
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    The large screen is coming.
    25 Jun 2013, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • Cain
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    This is death by a thousand cuts. When the broader market is up, AAPL is down. When the broader market is down, AAPL completely tanks. I believe it hasn't gone up a single session for the past week.
    25 Jun 2013, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • tsabar
    , contributor
    Comments (110) | Send Message
     
    Misek, Kidron and all the rest, at best have very sketchy to marginal info to go on, yet they dare to extrapolate and speculate with such certainty, it is scary that investors, actually make decisions on scant info and not facts.
    25 Jun 2013, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • Shmulik444
    , contributor
    Comments (20) | Send Message
     
    " it is scary that investors, actually make decisions on scant info and not facts."
    Not scary to me. A fool and his money will soon be parted and when the low information crowd panics, selling solid operations like AAPL at bargain prices, I add to my position.
    Question; if a certain type of apple that normally sells for $2 lb goes on sale for $1.75 lb and I buy some then later on find another vender selling these same apples for $1.65 lb, does that mean I got a rotten apple of a deal? No, it only means I didn't get the best possible deal. If you spend your day looking at the red numbers in the gain/loss column you will soon lose sight of the upside potential. When you do, I and others like me will be going shopping.
    27 Jun 2013, 07:56 AM Reply Like
  • imac007
    , contributor
    Comments (619) | Send Message
     
    When analysts don't truly follow the company, this is the kind of reporting you get.

     

    In Jan the company reported that demand for certain product lines was outpacing production. The store revealed that the demand for the iPhone 4's, iMac's and iPad mini's no longer showed a wait time in mid Feb. The subsequent quarterly report showed that there was a change in product mix. Lower margin products like the mini and 4's were in higher demand and cannabalized '5 sales. However, numbers were still strong. Revenue showed an impact as the products sold were lower priced.

     

    Sales numbers subsequently released have shown that they are still king of North American sales. Geographical zones without 4G did not adopt the new model. China and India are both markets building out that infrastructure. As the build out matures sales of the 4G models will increase. Japanese markets are obsessed with new models and that culture is spreading in Asia. High end phones are their Porsche's.

     

    Apple guided for the mix it was getting. The 4 will likely disappear from the product line with the upgrade in the fall. I suspect they maybe have completed production for that model and retooled for the next model. Reports are coming in that the next model is actually in production. Makes sense, trying to get in front of the demand curve that put them behind last year. Ramping for release demands followed by holiday season.

     

    If even conservative growth forecasts are right, assemblers will need to hire in excess of 300,000 more assembly staff, to meet demand. Hiring at 10,000 per week was reported in March. Training and retooling timing, must have also been, in the works. Once the 4 production met demand in mid-Feb they likely maintained a ramp of that model to stockpile inventory. The next step would be to shut that production down so retooling and training could take place.

     

    Tim Cook warned about trying to gauge anything by supply chain rumor. He is an insider and responsible for guidance. Do you listen to him or some outsider with unknown motives? If company guidance missed as badly as analyst estimates, we would ignore them altogether.
    27 Jun 2013, 01:44 PM Reply Like
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