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"It's hard to buy something down 80%," writes Mebane Faber, but it may not be a bad time to do...

"It's hard to buy something down 80%," writes Mebane Faber, but it may not be a bad time to do just that. The average 3-year return since 1920 when buying a sector lower by 80% from a peak is 172%, according to his research - think tech in 2002, homebuilders in 2009, and junior gold miners (GDXJ) today (gold miners GDX or RING are off nearly that amount). The returns are similarly enticing for entire industries and countries - think Greece (GREK) today.
Comments (16)
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2723) | Send Message
     
    Is This the Bottom for Gold and Silver? (my latest article)

     

    http://bit.ly/14bkOpZ
    27 Jun 2013, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • The_Hammer
    , contributor
    Comments (3802) | Send Message
     
    miners bullish%index at 0. That's right 0.
    27 Jun 2013, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • slash32is4
    , contributor
    Comments (115) | Send Message
     
    coal?
    27 Jun 2013, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • Rochelle Lynn
    , contributor
    Comments (19) | Send Message
     
    I would never buy gold here. It's going much lower and there's no reason to own it now. Look at who is telling you to buy it here. It's always someone that is holding gold and losing money everyday.
    27 Jun 2013, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • The_Hammer
    , contributor
    Comments (3802) | Send Message
     
    The Best buying opportunities are when you go contrary to the fools lined up with the most popular/entrenched idea at the moment. Even Baghdad Bob could not convince all the pessimistic sheep (who have never owned any PMs) to purchase gold/silver now.
    Bought some physical silver yesterday. Another drop will entice me to accumulate some more to allocation of physical.
    27 Jun 2013, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Eifrid
    , contributor
    Comments (336) | Send Message
     
    "Bought some physical silver yesterday"

     

    Curious as to what kind of premium you paid? I own both physical and paper, but with paper prices being what they are I have a hard time justifying buying physical here.
    27 Jun 2013, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • The_Hammer
    , contributor
    Comments (3802) | Send Message
     
    Buying cef or gtu at what 6-7% discounts is not all that bad here, but gld? noway. Paying more than i would like but it is hard has hell to buy it at a lower premium unless you find a private seller panicking. several months ago i bought several ASEs at spot when spot was 26. I bought 2- 20 oz today 10 oz bar. Free shipping. usually 9.95 shipping. Paid 19.72 an oz all in cost. can accept this. here's the deal. have to buy 2. Remember this is no tax and no shipping. these are real costs when you buy a hard asset.
    http://bit.ly/Zyfzj9
    if the price of silver breaks 18 tonight good chance cuz the sharks are on the attack.. will pick up three more.
    27 Jun 2013, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • George Savvakis
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
     
    Maybe it is time for GREK.
    27 Jun 2013, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • DeepValueLover
    , contributor
    Comments (8130) | Send Message
     
    The rich BUY when others laugh.
    27 Jun 2013, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • designshoe
    , contributor
    Comments (783) | Send Message
     
    well, only if he is rich from investing! LOL
    29 Jun 2013, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • DeepValueLover
    , contributor
    Comments (8130) | Send Message
     
    :-D Gold is money.
    27 Jun 2013, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • Papa Jupiter
    , contributor
    Comments (12) | Send Message
     
    Why buy gold?--Because it's pretty? Other than that, its worth is what people perceive it to be. No intrinsic value outside of possessing it and adoring it. It had a store of value in primitive days (like India and to some degree China still today) but today there are much more lucrative assets to take adventures in. Why all the attachments and disappointment in gold? Let it go and IF it rises hold it again. Play it, don't be deluded by it...unless you are a blushing Indian bride who needs to cover herself with it for her wedding, at any illogical cost....
    27 Jun 2013, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • joro_ianev
    , contributor
    Comments (378) | Send Message
     
    Papa Jupiter,

     

    You can say "No intrinsic value outside of possessing it and adoring it" for art, books, horses, house pets, children, etc. Heck, you can include just about anything being bought and sold. A large house will set you back $12M in New York, while the same house will be worth $1M in Detroit. So is the NY house worth $12M unless you are a blushing NY bride who needs to feel special, despite the illogical cost?

     

    All things are worth at exactly the value others perceive them to be. Period.
    27 Jun 2013, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • Jason Burack
    , contributor
    Comments (1715) | Send Message
     
    Gold is money and it is very rare in the earth's crust. Gold comes from exploding stars I believe. Same with silver and Platinum Group Metals.
    27 Jun 2013, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • TruffelPig
    , contributor
    Comments (4050) | Send Message
     
    What a recommendation......like immediately buy ships (tankers), coal, miners (including Gold) now. No......maybe buy sectors that are not in deep deep trouble? It is the trouble that concerns me, not the price.
    27 Jun 2013, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • designshoe
    , contributor
    Comments (783) | Send Message
     
    anyone notice country index have highest probability for success?

     

    most country index are diversified enough, so even if all the greek banks fail, the remaining industries will eventually recover.

     

    EGPT, GREK, EWI currently are down at least 60%, down at least 5 years, and are below book value
    I would not try the sector or industry method, think newspaper, solar, shipping or commodities sector right now
    29 Jun 2013, 09:35 AM Reply Like
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