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It took awhile, but the Treasury market appears to finally believe the rally in equities and the...

It took awhile, but the Treasury market appears to finally believe the rally in equities and the better economic numbers are for real. The 10-year price is declining sharply again today, giving up the year's gains and back to its level from just before Christmas. The yield is up 6 bps to 2.03%. Is it finally TBT's time to shine?
Comments (16)
  • at least it's the better way for the "divergence" to be resolved
    20 Jan 2012, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • TBT has suckered in a lot of people almost as many as BAC has. BAC & TBT trade??
    20 Jan 2012, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • they are positively correlated
    basically banks move in the inverse to the 10 year
    at least with BAC you get a little income.
    21 Jan 2012, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • Is it because of the belief that the better economic numbers are real or due to “A rising tide lifts all boats” like the Fed. reserve now acting like another big tide via the Europe stabilization fund or what ever nonsense. If later we can be sure even the inflation boat will be lifted up!
    20 Jan 2012, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • Lol!, rates go up 6 measly bps and the SA editors go crazy.....

     

    On the next pullback in equities the yield would be back again below 2%....
    20 Jan 2012, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • Yield is up 18 bps in a week, and yes we're having a big "over 2% and staying there" party. :)
    20 Jan 2012, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • it used to be "risk-free return" ..... at freaking 1.x% 10-year yield, that's fscking "return-free risk"
    20 Jan 2012, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • yep whan you are down here 18 bps is a big deal
    21 Jan 2012, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • The 10 year already below 2%...now 1.92%....

     

    I was right....
    25 Jan 2012, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • You guys need to get over your conspiracy theories and cynicism and get back to being investors. US economy is sharply improving. And many of us are doing extremely well.
    20 Jan 2012, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • It's election year. Every effort will be to lift up the economy at least short term, especially since Obama is favored vs. the field for now. The Fed will dump money to try to keep bond yields down even though they should rise in such an environment making the surge bigger yet more artificial.

     

    It is sad to watch our economy go from a capitalist one to one ruled by the government and central bank action. We are quickly becoming not so much different than the USSR anymore save we still have free elections and freedom of speech.
    20 Jan 2012, 10:44 PM Reply Like
  • barely favored... intrude puts his odds of re-election around 51%
    21 Jan 2012, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • I see no evidence to support political partisanship on part of the Fed.

     

    I do see lots of evidence that you are a conspiracy theorist.

     

    :)
    21 Jan 2012, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • So in what ways are we becoming the USSR?

     

    You are not making any money in the market?
    22 Jan 2012, 03:05 AM Reply Like
  • It is not partisanship. Look at election years in the past. The election years there is always strong pushes to get the economy up and the Federal Reserve tends to be very forgiving, especially when the President in power goes for re-election. To think the Federal Reserve is not a political beast is naive.
    22 Jan 2012, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • Making money or not is not the issue. You can make money in Russia or even in totalitarian regimes. The issue is how much the government controls the economy and how much of the economy is artificial. It is unfortunate but now over 20% of GDP is from the government which begins to border on a socialist state. Economic signals begin to get messed up after that. A good series to watch is Commanding Heights if you don't want to read economic books detailing the effects of too much government influence in the economy.
    22 Jan 2012, 02:50 PM Reply Like
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