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Lazard says Arikace is "still viable," which will hopefully be some consolation for Insmed (INSM...

Lazard says Arikace is "still viable," which will hopefully be some consolation for Insmed (INSM -15.4%) shareholders who are taking a rather nasty hit right now courtesy of Phase 3 trial results (previous) which suggested CF patients treated with Novartis' (NVS +0.4%) Tobi performed better on lung function tests — the results were close enough however, to allow INSM to claim statistical non-inferiority. Lazard's Joshua Schimmer reiterates a Buy rating and a $24 price target. Investors are also reminded that UBS believes the drug's real potential might lie in non-tuberculous mycobacteria rather than CF.
Comments (1)
  • MWinMD
    , contributor
    Comments (1864) | Send Message
     
    NO, Tobi did NOT "perform better" than ARIKACE. A scientific report that claimed such a thing would be summarily rejected by any journal. Statistical tests exist in the science world for a reason. The sample taken (run) of patients showed a mean difference in FEV that was not greater than what might be expected by random chance to a 95% confidence level for that number of subjects. And it was a one-sided statistical test at that - giving Tobi the best chance possible to prove its superiority (ie, twice the power of a two-sided test).

     

    The strongest statement one can make in favor of casting doubt on ARIKACE as an efficacious substitute for Tobi is that Tobi "nearly showed a TREND toward being better". The p-value was .12.

     

    The irrational selloff doesn't matter to me, since I'm holding for the NTM catalyst anyway. But if this drops any further I will definitely have to pick up more. Especially with the Russell 3000 index funds picking up shares in the next few days (assuming that didn't all take place today - a point I'm not clear on).
    1 Jul 2013, 07:29 PM Reply Like
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