Disney (DIS) could lose $100M on The Lone Ranger if holiday weekend sales are as weak as some...

Disney (DIS) could lose $100M on The Lone Ranger if holiday weekend sales are as weak as some estimates, according to Cowen & Co. The expensive film is having a tough time getting out of the gate with early reviews tipping toward the negative side amid tough competition from family movies Despicable Me 2 and Monsters University. (Reviews: The Hollywood Reporter says it "wobbles and thrashes all over the place" - while The New York Post calls it a "bloated, misshapen mess.")
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Comments (14)
  • deercreekvols
    , contributor
    Comments (9849) | Send Message
    Here we go again.


    Since when is Market Currents in the business of predicting what might happen with a movie's release?


    Same garbage happened with John Carter. That movie made a profit when all was said and done. You would have never known it from the early reports.


    Keep in mind that Disney is behind Monsters University. They are competing against themselves. Not a bad position to be in.
    2 Jul 2013, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • Sum02006
    , contributor
    Comments (461) | Send Message
    Good point about Monsters.


    And if trailers are any indication of success, Lone Ranger will dominate John Carter, whose trailer alone made me want to scream and run away.
    2 Jul 2013, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • Stone Fox Capital
    , contributor
    Comments (10306) | Send Message
    No matter the reviews, LR will be a movie to eventually see whether in the theater or on demand. No reviewers have been more positive about the movie than the so called experts.
    8 Jul 2013, 01:53 AM Reply Like
    , contributor
    Comments (85) | Send Message
    This is where "political correctness" from The Left Coast, meets The Reality Of The Marketplace...with a high velocity ! BAM!


    And investors lose, because, you see, La La Land HATES $$$$, excepting when it's THEIR MONEY !


    When they forsee Huge Failure, believe me, they are usually underestimating the carnage !


    'The Lone Ranger' is wit-free and derivative
    Christian Science Monitor‎




    'The Lone Ranger': Nominally a Western, movie is completely at sea...Chicago Tribune‎




    THANK GOD, for us, this segment of DIS is, reportedly, just 13% of their revenue !




    Here's what VARIETY says...


    2 Jul 2013, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • Bbloomlu
    , contributor
    Comments (312) | Send Message
    If I listened to critics I would have missed many of my favorite movies! Let the public decide.
    2 Jul 2013, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • Philip Saglimbeni
    , contributor
    Comments (480) | Send Message
    Eh, the reviews are about as bad as you can get. The Disney/Depp combination is a classic case of going to the well too often. How many times can Depp play the same character type? It was already stale by the third Pirates movie.


    However, the Pixar/Marvel/Lucasfilm combo is just too strong for even a critical dud like this to have much of a long-term effect. Still very much long the great Disney. I expect a nice dividend increase come end of the year as well . . .
    2 Jul 2013, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • mfritz095
    , contributor
    Comments (21) | Send Message
    The critics didn't like Superman either before it came out but it made $125 million domestically the opening weekend and over $200 million world wide. Well on it's way to making around $400 million which will turn a nice profit. Sometimes the movie going public just don't give a damn what the critics say.
    2 Jul 2013, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • Philip Saglimbeni
    , contributor
    Comments (480) | Send Message
    Good point, critical failure don't necessarily mean a financial flop. However, Superman is a well recognized franchise with a serious fan base at a time when superhero movies are very popular, Lone Ranger not so much. Plus, Superman received mixed reviews, Lone Ranger is getting bombarded by negative reviews.


    I actually really enjoyed Superman.
    2 Jul 2013, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • skibbi
    , contributor
    Comments (53) | Send Message
    I don't know a single person lining up to go to this movie or even excited about it.(unlike superman and others)


    best case scenario is breakeven. remember prints and advertising is can often be another 50% of the movie price tag (and this doesn't cover any studio fees or any number of other items).


    Glad they delayed this for two years in re-writes and other garbage to still have a stinker.
    2 Jul 2013, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • deercreekvols
    , contributor
    Comments (9849) | Send Message
    To be fair and balanced....


    Disney could make money on this movie too.


    Until the weekend numbers are in, this Market Current is pure speculation.


    Will SA be running another Market Current if the numbers don't add up to a $100M loss?


    I am long (DIS).
    2 Jul 2013, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • TheCondos
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
    I think everyone is underestimating the draw of Johnny Depp. People will go to see it just to see him. I agree with Bbloomlu, the critics often pan movies that I and a lot of the public really enjoy. Here's hoping the people will give it a chance.
    2 Jul 2013, 10:15 PM Reply Like
    , contributor
    Comments (85) | Send Message
    WHEN will investors STOP believing press releases ?


    "The Lone Ranger" Now Available for Pre-order"


    "Dear Amazon.com Customer,


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    List Price: $44.99
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    This title has not yet been released."
    6 Jul 2013, 04:50 AM Reply Like
  • Philip Saglimbeni
    , contributor
    Comments (480) | Send Message
    Viewers have spoken, The Lone Ranger's sub $50 million five-day numbers are very disappointing, especially considering it was on a huge holiday weekend, barely beating even the numbers of genre contemporaries and poor performers Cowboys and Aliens and Wild Wild West. So the movie is a critical and financial disappointment at least, whether it is a trainwreck remains to be seen. Not what Disney was hoping for to be sure, certainly no reinvention of a classic sub-genre like the Pirates franchise was. It seems Disney has overplayed its now stale Depp/Pirates/Verbinski hand. On to better things, like Marvel and Star Wars, still long DIS . . .
    7 Jul 2013, 11:39 PM Reply Like
    , contributor
    Comments (85) | Send Message
    Disney's 'Lone Ranger' Could Lead to $150 Million Loss (Analysis)
    2:34 PM PDT 7/7/2013 by Pamela McClintock








    Hopefully the can cancel it, though it's set for Summer 2015 !


    You would think these "geniuses" would have figured it out after the PIRATES 4 debacle !


    8 Jul 2013, 09:55 AM Reply Like
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