"Whichever way you go, it's time to set past expectations aside," writes Ben Levisohn, regarding...


"Whichever way you go, it's time to set past expectations aside," writes Ben Levisohn, regarding emerging markets. Political turmoil in Turkey and Egypt and questions about the growth prospects of countries like Brazil and South Africa have fundamentally changed an EM "narrative" that has produced 12% annual returns for the better part of 10 years. Underneath it all lies China, where cooling economic activity and a precarious shadow banking system threaten to destabilize the global recovery. Nevertheless, a 12.5% decline this year has the MSCI EM Index (EEM, DEM) trading at 1.5x book value, a 20% discount to developed-market stocks.

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Comments (3)
  • Joe2922
    , contributor
    Comments (486) | Send Message
     
    Never in recorded history has decoupling lasted very long. U.S. market is not a safe haven. The analysis shows a weak uptrend that favors Bears right here:
    http://bit.ly/WpVqYk
    6 Jul 2013, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • klarsolo
    , contributor
    Comments (705) | Send Message
     
    So funny: all that 90 % of pundits do is extrapolate recent returns and find a narrative to justify that outlook. Once you notice this it's easy to ignore pretty much all of them.
    6 Jul 2013, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • Joe2922
    , contributor
    Comments (486) | Send Message
     
    Not me, I'm mostly a contrarian, buy low/sell high. Short high/cover low.
    6 Jul 2013, 02:33 PM Reply Like
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