"With no recession in sight, we find it hard to make a bear case," says HSBC, noting that "the...

"With no recession in sight, we find it hard to make a bear case," says HSBC, noting that "the first tightening in a cycle … typically causes only a short-lived correction in stocks." The bank's global head of equity strategy Garry Evans says the combination of a "data dependent" taper, 10% earnings growth, and relatively conservative valuations makes for some attractive opportunities especially in financial stocks (XLF) which he says are cheap and poised for strong earnings momentum. HSBC also prefers U.S. equities (SPY, VTI) to other markets.

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Comments (21)
  • Voice of common sense
    , contributor
    Comments (138) | Send Message
    Typical financial mafia "carnival barking." AKA job preservation to fleece the gullible lemmings.
    6 Jul 2013, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • css1971
    , contributor
    Comments (871) | Send Message
    "We have some financial and US stocks we'd like to sell you.".


    Seriously: Goldman are better at this.
    6 Jul 2013, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • Joe2922
    , contributor
    Comments (479) | Send Message
    Funny...Last one In's a Rotten Egg! Might get one final new high to sucker in the last of 'em but this latest uptrend is pretty lame; charts, details:
    6 Jul 2013, 07:08 PM Reply Like
  • RS055
    , contributor
    Comments (5575) | Send Message
    As we all know anybody can say anything - this will go up , that will go down blah blah blah.
    no one is ever held to account.
    There is no basis for any of these "forecasts". No underlying model , no analysis. Just a lot of folklore, superstition and rhetoric.
    These analyst jobs have got to be the most overpaid, useless jobs in the history of civilization.
    6 Jul 2013, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • Jake2992
    , contributor
    Comments (1120) | Send Message
    Couldn't agree more. It's completely useless information.
    6 Jul 2013, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • Seth Walters
    , contributor
    Comments (675) | Send Message
    Here in the United States of America, we've figured out how to avoid recessions altogether! You see, if we print enough money to finance huge government deficits (while holding down rates with quantitative easing), and let the government give this money to corporations, who can use it directly or indirectly as collateral for loans at record low rates, we can report positive GDP growth every year! Never mind that most of the nation's people are suffering while a chosen few prosper... and do not pay attention to the expanding debts! GDP can grow forever as long as we grow the debt! Rates will stay low forever! The bond bubble will never burst!
    6 Jul 2013, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • mjm1572
    , contributor
    Comments (28) | Send Message
    Couldn't agree more. This is one constant lesson of human civilization - every form of Govt. intervention to economy simply distorts the natural order of market place and make a chosen few rich and powerful at the expense of many!


    But people still get excited and believe that every next govt. will bring a change for good!
    6 Jul 2013, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • movies555
    , contributor
    Comments (1445) | Send Message
    Couldn't agree moreer. Seriously though, exactly exactly right. What are we going to do if there's another recession? Well, apparently there won't be another one because we'll just print. Oh, and there's no inflation lol.
    6 Jul 2013, 07:41 PM Reply Like
  • Tactical111
    , contributor
    Comments (398) | Send Message
    Best way to determine a trend or reversal is to watch the option plays; shorts vs. longs. This is where the Big Boys play and reveal their hands somewhat. Good service for this is "Insider Edge" who has worked up a proprietary technical ( OVI/Option Volatility Index) that looks forward based on options. Or just go to the options setting on a stock and compare them by eye ball. 2x or 3x to 1 longs to shorts and the trend is up and vice versa. Looking at XLF right now and strike price of 20.50 the shorts are heavy 2x to 1 so I'd say short term trend is down.
    6 Jul 2013, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • Common Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
    I'm totally bullish that the Federal Reserve would continue abetting the maniacal markets so our friends at the Wall St Banks can keep their nice bonuses. After all they are doing God's work!
    6 Jul 2013, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • chopchop0
    , contributor
    Comments (5199) | Send Message
    These same clowns were proclaiming financials were a buy before the recession and since despite them being one of the worst performers since 09


    The only financials worth buying are V and MA
    6 Jul 2013, 06:39 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16366) | Send Message
    "...one of the worst performers since 09..."


    Apparently, research would serve a lot better than vacuous hot air. Financials have trounced most other sectors since March 2009.


    Just some samples:


    BAC +300%
    WFC +390%
    JPM +220%
    C +380%
    STI +260%
    XLF (Financial Index) +220%
    Preferred shares up even more.


    The foregoing versus the S&P500 at +145%.


    6 Jul 2013, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • Joe2922
    , contributor
    Comments (479) | Send Message
    Sure, eliminate mark-to-market for all the bad stuff and they don't look too hideous. Fed's job is to bail out the moronic banks who bought all that "AAA" mbs
    6 Jul 2013, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • Left Banker
    , contributor
    Comments (3796) | Send Message
    Thanks for that, Tack. I was about to add something similar.
    6 Jul 2013, 08:26 PM Reply Like
  • icandoitdon
    , contributor
    Comments (626) | Send Message
    your post is a bit disingenuous. march 09 was the low ebb of the market, at which point the XLF lost almost 75% of its value from 6 months prior as compared to a loss of about 45% for the S&P 500. many of the names mentioned were destined for the trash heap until the fed stepped in and bailed them out.


    take a broader look at the performance of the financials instead of focusing on all the near-bankrupted losers in the financial sector that ignore their stock prices pre-crash. numbers are approximate and exclude dividends:


    XLF has lagged the S&p 500 by approximately:
    80% for the last 10 years ending june 30
    30% for the last 5 years
    10% for the last 4 years
    14% for the last 3 years


    XLF has outperformed the S&P 500 by approximately:


    6% for last 2 years
    16% for 1 year


    after trillions thrown at them and years of free money the financials are finally starting to outperform.


    damn, i'm sure glad the fed stepped in when they did. we just wouldn't be able to get along without the brilliant minds that run our flagship financial institutions, would we?




    7 Jul 2013, 12:15 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16366) | Send Message


    Not disingenuous at all. I responded to another comment, which I quoted in part. Here's the full quote:


    "These same clowns were proclaiming financials were a buy before the recession and since despite them being one of the worst performers since 09"


    I didn't choose the dates. I was merely showing that such claim didn't hold any water.


    P.S. This entire thread is littered with cynicism and editorial comment. I thought the objective was to make money.
    7 Jul 2013, 12:27 AM Reply Like
  • icandoitdon
    , contributor
    Comments (626) | Send Message
    it seems to me that the quote to which you were responding was making the point that financials were being heavily recommended before the crash of 09; and we all know how that recommendation turned out. i thought it was a fair criticism.


    to me, the value of the thread is editorial comment....whether or not i agree with it. i look to this forum for the views and ideas of contributors...cynical or otherwise. there is no value obtained with universal agreement among participants.


    happy trading and i hope we all make money...
    7 Jul 2013, 12:45 AM Reply Like
  • Joe2922
    , contributor
    Comments (479) | Send Message
    XLF is a lot more than big banks. Many big insurance cos. Last time I checked JPM was biggest weighted issue in it.
    7 Jul 2013, 08:25 AM Reply Like
  • Kevin Flynn, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (633) | Send Message
    HSBC won't find itself able to make a bear case until the market is off at least 20%.
    6 Jul 2013, 07:45 PM Reply Like
  • PermaBull22
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
    It all makes sense...if you assume 10% earnings growth. 10% eh?
    7 Jul 2013, 02:38 AM Reply Like
  • spymaster5
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
    Here kitty, kitty, kitty.... I got some more stock inventory I have to unload to the unsuspecting retail investor/trader before we correct further. How about some financials (we have been long and made some great gains and need to lock in these as profits, but we need someone to buy them, how about you?) You know they are going up again, right? C'mon, look at the market the other day! Didn't you see the buying climax, uh, err, um, I mean the bullish rally. How about some more stock for you? You know this rally will last forever, right. Just a few more shares.... what do you think?
    7 Jul 2013, 03:38 AM Reply Like
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