Seeking Alpha

Canaccord's Mike Walkley cuts his 2013 smartphone sales forecast by 20M to 959M, and his 2014...

Canaccord's Mike Walkley cuts his 2013 smartphone sales forecast by 20M to 959M, and his 2014 forecast by 40M to 1.25B, citing surveys pointing to softer high-end sales, especially in Europe. While the surveys indicate iPhone 4 (AAPL -0.1%) and Galaxy S III (SSNLF.PK) sales were above expectations, they suggest the opposite for the iPhone 5 and Galaxy S4. Also, low-end/mid-range Android sales from Chinese OEMs are said to be "very strong" (good for SPRD), and high-end Lumia (NOK -2.4%) sales soft. Sales of the cheaper Lumia 520 and 620 are deemed "solid," but Walkley expects sell-in to slow as inventories rise. His report comes shortly after Samsung forecast light Q2 profits, and Wedge Partners reported of iPhone build order cuts. (also)
Comments (8)
  • High End Lumia Sales soft compared to what...
    10 Jul 2013, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • compared to other high end phones...
    10 Jul 2013, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • Compared to whatever he wants to after numbers become available.


    Sometimes I wonder .... If these channel checks are so awesome why would an analyst share them publicly?
    10 Jul 2013, 09:40 PM Reply Like
  • Guess against Samsung and Apple...but that are no news.


    He might be right with the trend to cheaper phones.
    10 Jul 2013, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • In the case of NOK, the required analysis should be to multiply the Shipment Estimate by WP Market Share, and then by NOK’s Market Share of 80% to 85% of WP. Based on WP Market Share of 3.2% to 5%: (i) for 2013, NOK should have between 24.5 to 40 Million Lumia Smartphones; (ii) for 2014, NOK should have between 32 to 52 Million Lumia Smartphones. Of course, WP Market Share may be more, even 10% by 2014, in which case NOK should have between 64 to 104 Million Lumia Smartphones.
    10 Jul 2013, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • Based on Q1-2013, the Smart Devices Results Summary was: Net Sales (EUR) of 1.164 Billion, Smart Devices Volume of 6.1 Million Units, the Smart Devices ASP (EUR) of 191 (equivalent to $252), with Gross Margin (%) of 20.7%, Operating Expenses of (EUR) of 420 (equivalent to $554 Million) and Contribution Margin (%) of -16.2%. For Q2-2013 and thereafter, it is important to determine the Break-Even Point based on Gross Margin of $52 per Unit. Assuming that Operating Expenses are $554 Million per Quarter, the Break-Even Point is approximately 10.654 Million Smart Devices Units per Quarter. Based on the above, NOK Smart Devices should have Positive Contribution Margin by Q4-2013. Of course, the Mobile Phones Results Summary should continue with Positive Contribution Margin (%).
    10 Jul 2013, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • "cuts his 2013 smartphone sales forecast by 20M to 959M, and his 2014 forecast by 40M to 1.25B"


    You do realize that these are paltry 2&3% changes?


    Let's all take a valium here, ya'll


    . . . it's not a stroke, merely a hot flash . . . of dis-information
    11 Jul 2013, 11:41 PM Reply Like
  • That assumes he's smart enough to come up with dis-information.


    My assumption is he pulled the numbers out of his butt to make it appear he knows something to benefit himself.


    Is there any reason to think this analyst is one bit different than the analysts at S&P that come up with AAA ratings?
    12 Jul 2013, 09:26 AM Reply Like
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