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Tesla Motors (TSLA +0.8%) CEO Elon Musk says current production of the Model S is over 400 per...

Tesla Motors (TSLA +0.8%) CEO Elon Musk says current production of the Model S is over 400 per week and expressed confidence it would reach a level of 800 by late next year. On future plans, Musk also exuded optimism: "We going to have every kind of car you could possibly imagine."
Comments (53)
  • wigit5
    , contributor
    Comments (4014) | Send Message
     
    Haven't heard much about the Model X lately though when do models start going out?
    11 Jul 2013, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • Nicu Mihalache
    , contributor
    Comments (1078) | Send Message
     
    maybe 800 / w by the end of the YEAR ;)

     

    Edit: it's even late 2014 in the linked article
    11 Jul 2013, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • wigit5
    , contributor
    Comments (4014) | Send Message
     
    ah for some reason I was under the impression it would be sooner then that... so they are relying on domestic sales to continue and/or increase to survive the year and a half...

     

    I smell another secondary sometime early 2014.
    11 Jul 2013, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • Agnes59
    , contributor
    Comments (361) | Send Message
     
    @Nicu M..Its possible they're doing 800 a week now. I believe they already have second shift going.
    11 Jul 2013, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • evjohn
    , contributor
    Comments (131) | Send Message
     
    Where did he say this?
    11 Jul 2013, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • dennisg13
    , contributor
    Comments (129) | Send Message
     
    “We’re above 400 a week at the current manpower, and not trivially above it,”

     

    In late 2014, the pace is “going to 800 a week. I’m very confident we’ll get there,” Musk said.

     

    I just copied and pasted from the article. How hard is it for SA to do the same?
    11 Jul 2013, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • youngman442002
    , contributor
    Comments (5131) | Send Message
     
    Double in one week...now that is production....I doubt it though
    11 Jul 2013, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • HMGD
    , contributor
    Comments (155) | Send Message
     
    @youngman442002

     

    It is not in one week, the article actually said in late 2014.

     

    "In late 2014, the pace is “going to 800 a week. I’m very confident we’ll get there,” said Musk..."

     

    Musk is usually prudent in some numbers, I believe (based on Tesla performance) that they will reach 800 per week at the beginning of the second half of 2014 and not too late in 2014.
    11 Jul 2013, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • Retired2thDoc
    , contributor
    Comments (92) | Send Message
     
    The significant thing in the interview for me was that they are using 2 shifts.
    Anyone know when that started? Must have missed it
    Thanks
    11 Jul 2013, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • uselesslogin
    , contributor
    Comments (24) | Send Message
     
    I think the second shift has always been there but only because some parts of the process require 2 shifts. Obviously the goal is to get it so that only one shift is needed and then add a second full shift that could double production.
    11 Jul 2013, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • ying778
    , contributor
    Comments (66) | Send Message
     
    Sounds very exciting! A Tesla supercar would be amazing. Mass market vehicles to sustain profits but a supercar to create even more passion around the brand.
    11 Jul 2013, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • Surf Dog
    , contributor
    Comments (825) | Send Message
     
    Isn't the Model S pretty much a supercar? If you had driven one, you would understand, I have. It Is.....
    11 Jul 2013, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • dennisg13
    , contributor
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    Beat me to the same comment Dog.
    11 Jul 2013, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • evjohn
    , contributor
    Comments (131) | Send Message
     
    late 2014? or late 2013? a BIG difference! Seems to me someone made a mistake.
    11 Jul 2013, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • evjohn
    , contributor
    Comments (131) | Send Message
     
    above 400 a week gets you to about 20,000 units... not bad Mush has said 21,000 somewhere along the line. And I assuem puttign on another shift will not happen over night as you would have to train people for another shift an d that takes time too.
    11 Jul 2013, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • dennisg13
    , contributor
    Comments (129) | Send Message
     
    I've seen a number of posts where people say they have toured the plant and seen that they made over 500 cars in a week.
    11 Jul 2013, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • uselesslogin
    , contributor
    Comments (24) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/13JzdvR

     

    kidjay says 550 the week of June 17th.
    11 Jul 2013, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • Agnes59
    , contributor
    Comments (361) | Send Message
     
    @dennisg13...500 a week I strongly believe that as well. I wont be surprise if they do more than that.
    11 Jul 2013, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • dennisg13
    , contributor
    Comments (129) | Send Message
     
    Agnes.....Yes, Musk will surprise on July22. Note that he said "not trivially above 400."
    NOT TRIVIALLY to me means WAY above 400.
    11 Jul 2013, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • Agnes59
    , contributor
    Comments (361) | Send Message
     
    @dennisg13..Exactly, cant wait for the announcement July 22, as you have notice Elon says thing indirectly. That leaves an element of surprise for the nay sayers.
    11 Jul 2013, 08:31 PM Reply Like
  • Esekla
    , contributor
    Comments (2586) | Send Message
     
    It's late 2014. I'd hope they actually wind up well ahead of that, given the geographic diversification of their sales.

     

    This is the second correction (that I've found) needed to a market current news item in as many weeks.
    11 Jul 2013, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • evjohn
    , contributor
    Comments (131) | Send Message
     
    Hum... what calendar are you on. It is July 2013..
    11 Jul 2013, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • wigit5
    , contributor
    Comments (4014) | Send Message
     
    evjohn I think you misunderstood Eskla he isn't saying the current day is late 2014.
    11 Jul 2013, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • pat1000
    , contributor
    Comments (474) | Send Message
     
    Elon has always said the Co says 21,000 but he personally thought it would be 30 or 40 thousand which implied a run rate by the end this year----
    11 Jul 2013, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • Gumby
    , contributor
    Comments (2363) | Send Message
     
    My main question is where Tesla is gonna find all the lithium it will need to support growing production. We dont exaclty produce plenty of lithium around here..
    11 Jul 2013, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • Esekla
    , contributor
    Comments (2586) | Send Message
     
    @Gumby

     

    Not Tesla's problem. They buy their batteries from Panasonic and don't really own much technology in that area, despite loose talk. That's good given vast sums that have been sunk into making a better battery over the past two decades, with relatively limited returns. On the other hand, the assumed decreases in battery pricing are very much in question if they were ever to be used for truly significant #s of vehicles.

     

    More likely there will need to be another jump forward in technology. If it's batteries, the most likely beneficiary is Toyota. If it's hydrogen (unlikely, in my estimation) then it's Honda & GM. Liquid Nitrogen looks the most promising over the longer term, though, and that probably goes to the highest bidder (certainly not Telsa).
    11 Jul 2013, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • dennisg13
    , contributor
    Comments (129) | Send Message
     
    Liquid Nitrogen? How is that going to be a fuel source? I play with liquid Nitrogen in my science classrooms. The best part is when we put some in a 2 liter soda bottle, cap it, and let it blow up. And I'm talking big "blow up" for about half a cup of Nitrogen. I sure as HELL am not driving around in a car with a tank of the stuff.
    11 Jul 2013, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • Esekla
    , contributor
    Comments (2586) | Send Message
     
    By blow up, I presume you mean explode the bottle as it vaporizes and expands, rather than combust (into flames). Nitrogen doesn't do the latter. The former expansion is exactly what pushes pistons, though, without any pollution; Nitrogen is most of the air we breathe, as I'm sure you know. But then you should also know that the compressed cylinders of the liquefied gas are quite safe. I see them left out on the street fairly regularly being used in certain construction projects, and certainly they wouldn't be keeping such dangerous stuff at your school.

     

    In light of all this, I'm surprised that you don't realize that Liquid Nitrogen is not really a fuel source, per se, but rather a means of storing energy which is far more efficient than any battery, as it would not lose charge or vary it's performance much depending on temperature. The recent breakthrough which makes this relevant is an invention by a British engineer named Peter Dearborn, for making an engine run more simply off this stuff. Google the name and Liquid Nitrogen Engine. You'll find it, and then maybe you can educate your students, if not the Tesladores.
    11 Jul 2013, 07:05 PM Reply Like
  • dennisg13
    , contributor
    Comments (129) | Send Message
     
    I'll check later. So you use the expansion of the liquid nitrogen as it phase changes to a gas to drive pistons? Hmm....
    I wonder how the extreme cold that must impart to the engine is handled. And it takes some time for the liquid to change to a gas and create enough pressure to burst the bottles. It is not instantaneous.
    Now I'm curious.
    Yes the bottles explode from the expansion of the gas, not ignited. We have a local co-op that gives us some in a bull semen storage bottle - like an old time milk can - every semester at the time we discuss Charles' Law. Very cheap to make. Just compress the gas and dissipate the heat.
    Still not sure I want to carry around a pressurized container of the stuff in my car that holds enough to run the car.
    11 Jul 2013, 08:16 PM Reply Like
  • Esekla
    , contributor
    Comments (2586) | Send Message
     
    @Dennis I'd like your feedback if you do take a look, but dang it, I keep wanting to call him Dearborn, and it's Dearman. So search that.

     

    Here's a link to get you started: http://smrt.io/13gDGr5

     

    but the crux of it, from the Economist is "A breakthrough in engine design has made liquid nitrogen an even more attractive alternative than the lithium-ion batteries used in electric cars. An invention made by an independent British engineer called Peter Dearman dispenses with the costly heat exchanger that is needed to vaporise the liquid nitrogen quickly. Instead, a small amount of water and anti-freeze (eg, methanol) is injected into the cylinder just as the liquid nitrogen is drawn in, causing it to boil and expand rapidly"

     

    That, I believe, allowed for a 1 stage instead of 2 stage engine. Several academic and commercial entities have been suitably impressed.
    11 Jul 2013, 09:35 PM Reply Like
  • dennisg13
    , contributor
    Comments (129) | Send Message
     
    Esekla
    Yeah, that looks fascinating, and it answers my questions from above.
    I'm gonna keep my eye on this one.....THANKS!
    Great theoretical problem for physics/engineering students to ponder.
    11 Jul 2013, 10:48 PM Reply Like
  • Joe E Coyotee
    , contributor
    Comments (246) | Send Message
     
    Okay here is the article
    http://bloom.bg/18bD7QX
    11 Jul 2013, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • jtamplin
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, horrible typo in the summary -- it should be "800 by late 2014".

     

    Basically, they are going to run a second line for the Model X (they have tons of room in the NUMMI plant), which will start shipping Signatures by the end of 2014. Nothing particularly new here.

     

    @wigit5 - they are starting to sell Model S's overseas this month, and will continue to expand where it is available through the next year. Given guidance of 21k sold this year and being well over 10k sold so far (we'll know exactly with their Q2 results), they just need to have orders for about 20k more Model S's worldwide before the Model X starts shipping, and I think they will have far more than that. Combined, the Model S and Model X sales need to keep them going until 2016 or so when they get the GenIII out, at which point they will need to expand their operations inside the NUMMI plant to build a ton of those.
    11 Jul 2013, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • Esekla
    , contributor
    Comments (2586) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, every time I hear how they're producing, I keep wondering why they stopped reporting monthly sales #s, like every other auto maker. Presumably the total sold should be around 12K, if demand is still strong.
    11 Jul 2013, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • geo-eng
    , contributor
    Comments (113) | Send Message
     
    They never reported monthly sales #'s, only refundable reservation #'s which isn't the same as sales #'s. No other auto make reports reservations numbers (that I'm aware of). Do other car makers even have reservations with refundable deposits? Probably not because they sell through dealers.
    11 Jul 2013, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • dennisg13
    , contributor
    Comments (129) | Send Message
     
    Simple....to scare hell out of the shorts at earnings report time. Julian Cox is/was all over that FUD.
    11 Jul 2013, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • oneglutathione
    , contributor
    Comments (20) | Send Message
     
    Here is the original Bloomberg.com article :

     

    Tesla Model S Sedan Output Speeds Past 400 a Week: CEO

     

    http://bloom.bg/18bD7QX
    11 Jul 2013, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • Cassina Tarsia
    , contributor
    Comments (641) | Send Message
     
    The article also said that Tesla is expected to report a loss of 17 cents a share for the second quarter. That will probably cause a dip in the market price for a time ... maybe offset by new sales in Europe. It seems like everything affects everything.
    11 Jul 2013, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • orthophonist
    , contributor
    Comments (126) | Send Message
     
    Hong Kong is gateway to China. The import duty in Hong Kong for ICE private cars is: Up to $19,300 = 40%; between $19,300 and $25,780 = 75%; and above that last number = 100%. What is the import duty for all-electric cars in Hong Kong? You guessed it, 0%.

     

    The Chinese will quickly realize that 'the greatest car in the world' will be, for them, 'the greatest bargain in the world.'

     

    As a result, I predict that sales in Hong Kong, alone, will exceed sales in the US. Not only will this mean 3 shifts in Fremont, but the start of a second assembly line - even without the X.
    11 Jul 2013, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • wigit5
    , contributor
    Comments (4014) | Send Message
     
    Bold predictions Ortho; has any statistics been released as to when china will start receiving those quantities of the Model S?
    11 Jul 2013, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • Esekla
    , contributor
    Comments (2586) | Send Message
     
    Or when the Chinese will copy the approach and start producing knock-offs?
    11 Jul 2013, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • orthophonist
    , contributor
    Comments (126) | Send Message
     
    There is a sufficient body of affluent, well-educated middle class in China that will jump at the opportunity to buy the real thing and will shun the knock-off. It's the Gen III I'm worried about.
    11 Jul 2013, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • orthophonist
    , contributor
    Comments (126) | Send Message
     
    No, only the statistic relating to current orders.

     

    It's a huge country with a lot of money to burn and there is a political advantage to be gained by showing that the Chinese can buy the best car in the world - even when it's made in the US.

     

    Frunk liner orders will serve as a leading indicator, but unfortunately will not discriminate between European and Asian orders.
    11 Jul 2013, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • Esekla
    , contributor
    Comments (2586) | Send Message
     
    Completely agree. Current TSLA stock price includes Gen III success. I've said for a while now that the Model S sales don't even matter any more.
    11 Jul 2013, 07:08 PM Reply Like
  • jfsacal
    , contributor
    Comments (285) | Send Message
     
    Hong Kong alone, with a population of 7 million?
    11 Jul 2013, 08:58 PM Reply Like
  • orthophonist
    , contributor
    Comments (126) | Send Message
     
    No, Hong Kong as a conduit to the rest of the country.
    12 Jul 2013, 02:15 AM Reply Like
  • Joe E Coyotee
    , contributor
    Comments (246) | Send Message
     
    Key words in the Article “We going to have every kind of car you could possibly imagine,” Musk joked during this week’s interview. “If it moves, we’ll make it.”
    we are all anxiously awaiting for Gen 3 lower cost Tesla for year 2016/17 however I believe TSLA might offer another Model based on the same power-train platform as Model S and X before Gen 3
    year 13 model S
    year 14 Model X
    year 15 Model ? guesses ? small pick up? compact SUV ?
    year 16/17 Gen 3
    11 Jul 2013, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • iosweekly
    , contributor
    Comments (62) | Send Message
     
    2015 will probably see a refresh of the model S, with slight design, styling and tech tweaks. Maybe a all wheel drive option.
    11 Jul 2013, 07:06 PM Reply Like
  • BigJ1260
    , contributor
    Comments (200) | Send Message
     
    Imagine the power of the Tesla drive in a pick up at $35K to $45K

     

    Good bye to all the gas guzzling huge engine pick ups at $35 to $50K
    Dodge Ram, Silverado, etc. - this is a huge market and the savings on gas would be enormous. Would even take a lot of share from Toyota Tacoma and F-150.

     

    Bcus of the weight of the battery spread acoss the entire chassis- there would be no more sliding around in mud and snow as with other pick ups.
    11 Jul 2013, 08:16 PM Reply Like
  • rv3lynn
    , contributor
    Comments (401) | Send Message
     
    Very interesting thought here. My work truck goes out 2 or 3 days a week and typically travels 150 miles a day or less. An AWD electric truck with Tesla's qualifications would work great for me. It would save a lot of diesel at $3.90/gal.
    11 Jul 2013, 11:20 PM Reply Like
  • joenjensen
    , contributor
    Comments (679) | Send Message
     
    I have no idea where these Model year guesses came from, but it looks and sounds very much like wishful thinking to me.
    I think these Tesla model cars are coming out a lot sooner, more so than most gasoline car lovers want, all because it's my belief they don't want this technology to work.
    However this technology is here now for the benefit of consumers all over the world, and especially for global environment.
    11 Jul 2013, 09:49 PM Reply Like
  • 123man
    , contributor
    Comments (1072) | Send Message
     
    Tesla doesn't give out production numbers for a good reason - if running behind, the stock will dip - if running ahead, the stock will jump, if running way ahead the stock will soar - if I were Musk, I'de keep it under wraps until the last minute and watch it soar to the dismay of the shorts -
    11 Jul 2013, 11:12 PM Reply Like
  • joenjensen
    , contributor
    Comments (679) | Send Message
     
    That's right 123man Musk isn't going top make it easy for the shorters to make money, he likes to keep-em guessing, and I like that to.
    14 Jul 2013, 08:29 PM Reply Like
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