European car sales dropped to the lowest levels since 1993 in H1, sliding 6.7% to 6.44M, the...

European car sales dropped to the lowest levels since 1993 in H1, sliding 6.7% to 6.44M, the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association said, as the economic slump continued to bite. June registrations tumbled 6.3% to 1.18M, the lowest for the month since 1996. Sales in four of Europe's biggest automotive markets contracted in June, although the U.K. grew 13%. Manufacturer June breakdown: GM (GM) -9.9%, Ford (F) +6.9%, Volkswagen (VLKPF.PK) -4.4%, Daimler (DDAIF.PK) +0.6%, Peugeot (PEUGF.PK) -11%, Renault (RNSDF.PK) +0.9%, Fiat (FIATY.PK) -14%. (PR)
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Comments (7)
  • JoseV
    , contributor
    Comments (401) | Send Message
    This appears to be very good news for Ford, if confirmed, and will impact Ford Q2 results significantly. It is also testimony that Ford's global strategy is producing accelerating results!
    16 Jul 2013, 04:47 AM Reply Like
  • Tdot
    , contributor
    Comments (9373) | Send Message
    Jose - What do you mean "if confirmed"? Do you think they just made up the sales numbers?


    While Ford sales in Europe bucked the trend, and went 6.9% higher than last year's low sales, it just means maybe slightly less losses than last year for the month. Last year June sales were down 15% from 2011, and they lost $404M in the quarter. So yeah, maybe they trimmed the losses in one month out of the quarter by a few percent? There was also April and May sales, which were down.


    What appears to have happened in June is that Ford introduced some new products in Europe, and they are attracting some buyers that were waiting for them - at least in the UK.


    Let's not get too far ahead of ourselves here. Ford has only given guidance that they will at least $2B or more in Europe in 2013 - significantly worse than last year. Even if they trim the losses down to only $1.5B (essentially matching last year) it is still a 38 cent hit on estimated earnings, currently estimated at $1.42 per share for the year.


    The consensus estimate for the second quarter is for 36 cents, which is up 20% over last year. Ford has a nice recent trend of beating the analysts' estimates by several percent, so 40 cents may be feasible if the trend continues, but one wonders if the consensus of the analysts already captured that and baked it into that 20% improvement over 2Q12?
    16 Jul 2013, 05:32 AM Reply Like
  • cbroncos
    , contributor
    Comments (3024) | Send Message
    7 days the full year estimate was $1.41 now it is $1.42 I am very unimpressed! Where are the real analysts? Even the high estimate of $1.55 is probably off by 10 cents or more.


    You really think 40 cents is feasible? Not 43-45 cents? I wonder how do you only get 40 cents?
    16 Jul 2013, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • Tdot
    , contributor
    Comments (9373) | Send Message
    The analysts, who have been doing this for a while, have a consensus at 36 cents for 2Q13, with a range from a low of 26 to a high of 43. They have most assuredly baked in Ford's US sales, expected losses in Europe and South America, and modest profits in Asia.


    That 36 cents consensus estimate is already 20% higher than last year's 2Q profits. Ford's US sales were up 13% through the first half, while operating at close to full production capacity, and the highly profitable F-series trucks led the way.


    Assuming Europe, Asia, and South America , and the rest of the world were roughly flat on the overall profits and losses compared to last year, we can assume that the US sector profits will set the pace for Global profits.


    A decent rule of thumb suggests that at nearly-full production capacity, the profits should be roughly double to maybe triple the sales increase. So based on 13% higher sales, we should be looking optimistically at between 38 cents and 42 cents. I split it at 40 cents.


    Also 40 cents is about an 11% beat on the 36 cents consensus estimate. Last June/July (2Q12) the beat was 7%, and in March the 3Q13 beat was 11%, so it seems fair to guess in that ballpark.
    16 Jul 2013, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • User 353732
    , contributor
    Comments (5168) | Send Message
    As the effective purchasing power of most people in the EU continues to decline, their ability to buy homes and autos naturally continues to compress.
    Europe is now facing a very long ,secular, economic, demographic and geo strategic decline.
    16 Jul 2013, 05:27 AM Reply Like
  • cbroncos
    , contributor
    Comments (3024) | Send Message
    Austerity in Europe is over - it failed and everyone knows it!
    16 Jul 2013, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • wiseone123
    , contributor
    Comments (489) | Send Message
    Ford's closing of the three manufacturing plants in Europe to include Genk and the two in the UK simply cannot happen fast enough. The smaller Asian manufacturers simply export to Europe and make a decent profit while Ford copes with billions in losses. Ford is ceasing all production in Australia in 2016 and someday may have to consider the same strategy in Germany, France, and the UK. Spain could be a survivor. Automobile manufacturing is becoming more and more like a commodity business every day as worldwide producers commonize just about everything. After all, Apple Computer produces 100% of its products for the entire world in one country, China, and earns extraordinary profits. Not a fair comparison but there are few credible arguments for continuing manufacturing in Europe. Engineering centers are another story.
    16 Jul 2013, 10:19 AM Reply Like
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