Seeking Alpha

If you thought Northcoast Capital's $230 target was something, Dougherty ups the stakes, saying...

If you thought Northcoast Capital's $230 target was something, Dougherty ups the stakes, saying Tesla (TSLA +4.4%) "is a $300 stock at the factory’s maximum capacity." Analyst Andrea James does "hair cut" the call by $100 for "execution risk," landing at a price target of $200. Someone at Goldman is likely chuckling.
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Comments (32)
  • Esekla
    , contributor
    Comments (3321) | Send Message
     
    Not sure why these analysts think production is worth commenting on. There is zero doubt that Telsa can up production, IMO, the question is how much demand is there? We should expect to see over 5K cars sold in this quarter or else there are serious problems.
    17 Jul 2013, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • rockinghorse
    , contributor
    Comments (290) | Send Message
     
    Elon Musk predicts that by 2025 half of the cars produced are fully electric, so there is plenty for demand also for Tesla. I think that this is reasonable prediction, if EV battery technology continues to get more cost effective. The cost of battery packs should halve by the end of the decade.
    17 Jul 2013, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • Tales From The Future
    , contributor
    Comments (5224) | Send Message
     
    Haha,

     

    Why not make highly optimistic long-term (say 2030) predictions and slap a cool 1000$ price target on TSLA?

     

    These TSLA analysts are getting funny. At least the GS analyst had some numbers to play with using reasonable assumptions.

     

    Just because the former NUMMI factory has a certain (theoretical) build capacity doesn't mean TSLA can/will actually sell 500k cars a year before the decade ends.

     

    PS: I did close half of my short below $110 today and keeping the rest.
    17 Jul 2013, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • Michael Bryant
    , contributor
    Comments (5657) | Send Message
     
    Remember when they were calling for $1000 a share for (AAPL). At least, (AAPL) had earnings and a high profit margin.
    17 Jul 2013, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • Tales From The Future
    , contributor
    Comments (5224) | Send Message
     
    True.

     

    BTW, the analyst Andrea James already mentioned her lofty 300$ TSLA price target back around May 29, 2013, see for yourself:

     

    http://bit.ly/12wmEiw

     

    It's funny how this is now "news" in mid-July. Strictly speaking Andrea just downgraded TSLA from 300$ to $200 :)
    17 Jul 2013, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • rube123
    , contributor
    Comments (1426) | Send Message
     
    is TSLA the google of cars, I think so

     

    2030 is to far out, back that down to 2020,
    you will be more inline ,
    see ya at a $1000

     

    TSLA is more than selling a few cars
    17 Jul 2013, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • Tales From The Future
    , contributor
    Comments (5224) | Send Message
     
    You realize that at $1000 (not even taking into account possible future dilution) TSLA would be the second-biggest auto company behind Toyota based on market cap ?!

     

    Sounds like 1999 valuation to me based on (in theory) 500k cars sold a year and a single factory....you can't build additional factories and introduce new models overnight in the car industry.

     

    PS: Again, for comparison Fiat has a market cap below 10 bn $ and includes the Chrysler, Maserati and Ferrari brands...even after the latest drop TSLA has a 30% higher market cap as of today (!).
    17 Jul 2013, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • Agnes59
    , contributor
    Comments (361) | Send Message
     
    GS has no credibility in my book, especially now they are still under litigation. Paid millions of dollars for wrong doings in the past.
    17 Jul 2013, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • BogusRogus
    , contributor
    Comments (131) | Send Message
     
    I have $400.
    17 Jul 2013, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • cesartoro
    , contributor
    Comments (38) | Send Message
     
    You short it? i long it... Lets wait... Everithing about Tesla es exciting (like the future)
    17 Jul 2013, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • joenjensen
    , contributor
    Comments (708) | Send Message
     
    Why did you sell, because tsla went up to almost 8 bucks, cutting yesterdays loss in half? Maybe you got out in time, not sure but your other half is in jeopardy if you keep it, don't forget the other prediction of over 200 bucks.
    17 Jul 2013, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • joenjensen
    , contributor
    Comments (708) | Send Message
     
    If you do your research you will learn that Tesla's factory in California is so huge they can expand their car building without building new factories. Right now they are using 25% of that factory, and it wouldn't take much to get another 25% or more if needed.
    17 Jul 2013, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • fan of the underdog
    , contributor
    Comments (720) | Send Message
     
    tftf:

     

    I'm curious, you sold half your short position at 110. Does that mean you think that 110 is a support level? That the stock won't drop much past that?

     

    How strongly do you believe that Tesla should be comparable to Fiat?

     

    From what I've been reading, the shorts (I know I'm generalizing, but bear with me here) are only short long enough to make money on the 15% drop, and don't really believe that the stock is really worth anything less than 100 / share ... a level that pegs TSLA's market cap at ~$13billion ... which is still much more than Fiat. So why even bring up this comparison at all?

     

    I for one believe that TSLA will have sales of $24.8 billion in 2017, with about $2.5billion in profit (see my math on Logical Thought's article), thus earning itself a market cap of $32 billion ... which would put TSLA at $257/share (fully diluted of course).
    17 Jul 2013, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • Tales From The Future
    , contributor
    Comments (5224) | Send Message
     
    @Fan of the underdog: I covered half because TSLA has become a cult stock (I rarely agree with CNBC Cramer, but he's right on that one).

     

    So I wanted to limit my risk. I know many people got burned shorting TSLA, and I only started my first short position a few days ago at $124. No reason to leave money on the table after the quick drop.

     

    If TSLA goes back up to $125-150, I will add the money to the short again.

     

    You are correct that Fiat Group is probably a bad direct comparison in terms of EVs (they only make a Fiat 500e EV to comply with regulators), but it's a peer with strong brands (Ferrari...) and a good example how TSLA market cap got out of line.

     

    PS: More reasoning behind my TSLA short can be found in my Instablog entry:

     

    http://bit.ly/12MLSrR
    17 Jul 2013, 11:53 PM Reply Like
  • evjohn
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    Bottom line:

     

    either you jump ship as a long because and you get spooked easily or you jump in with the shorts and hop aboard a sinking ship. It is all about what YOU believe as an investor and no one else matters.

     

    There is ALWAYS ups and downs in any disruptive growth stock. Fasten your seat belts for those longs! It is going to be quite a ride.
    17 Jul 2013, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • Michael Bryant
    , contributor
    Comments (5657) | Send Message
     
    Belief hurt many in the dot com bubble. Try using logic for a change. Eventually, logic will win. Live long and prosper.
    17 Jul 2013, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • Stymie67
    , contributor
    Comments (179) | Send Message
     
    Actually I find it highly illogical to use comparisons like that.

     

    One was an entire phenomenon involving hundreds of more-or-less fly by night companies that never proved themselves beyond their venture capital...the "dot bombs". Tesla, whatever one may think about its valuation, is a single company that has proven itself, at minimum, as reasonably worthy of at least some positive forward sentiment. It has executed its business plan well, has a great product, and has become profitable.

     

    Too many folks just willy-nilly throw up the dot-com mantra like its a genuine comparison...it is not. Tesla may be overvalued, that's one thing, and a $200 or $300 PT is maybe speculative, but it isnt some dot-bomb with nothing more to show than a "e" in its name and some venture capital.
    17 Jul 2013, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • winfield100
    , contributor
    Comments (839) | Send Message
     
    @stymie67. modertly incorrect because TSLA is closely linked to SCTY is closely linked to SpaceX. what other car company can launch a payload to the International SPace Station and sucessfully launch and land a rocketship (Grasshopper) It is a GROUP of companies whose present face here is TSLA
    17 Jul 2013, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • Tricky
    , contributor
    Comments (1583) | Send Message
     
    $300 / $200. Such nice round numbers. Obviously, a lot of deliberate thought went into this analysis.
    17 Jul 2013, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • Agnes59
    , contributor
    Comments (361) | Send Message
     
    @tricky..not much I can say for GS. No creditability in my book.
    17 Jul 2013, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • jackl1956
    , contributor
    Comments (116) | Send Message
     
    I think it is time for Tesla Motors to do a Model S commercial.
    17 Jul 2013, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • PeterJA
    , contributor
    Comments (2778) | Send Message
     
    "I think it is time for Tesla Motors to do a Model S commercial"

     

    Why? They have word-of-mouth and news coverage that money can't buy.
    17 Jul 2013, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • nerdball_director
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    just the news of an imminent commercial would be a Tesla story in itself.
    17 Jul 2013, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • WallStreetDebunker
    , contributor
    Comments (2634) | Send Message
     
    Why does the infidel analyst insult the nation of Teslam by limiting the price to $300? Does she not know that Tesla is the one true automobile, as written by Elon the prophet? The Teslamist brotherhood will raise the stock price to infinity, Elon willing.
    17 Jul 2013, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • Jack Rice
    , contributor
    Comments (949) | Send Message
     
    You will be assimilated. Resistance is futile.
    17 Jul 2013, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • PeterJA
    , contributor
    Comments (2778) | Send Message
     
    "Resistance is futile."

     

    Jack, in aikido, you don't resist.
    17 Jul 2013, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • Cassina Tarsia
    , contributor
    Comments (647) | Send Message
     
    I'll take the $200 and run, for now. Wait until the 25th ... I think that we'll have another run-up on that day (Q2, you know).
    17 Jul 2013, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • hughesrd
    , contributor
    Comments (162) | Send Message
     
    Will Gen III be labelled the Model T? If so, I look forward to a lawyers' food fight that would help sales.
    17 Jul 2013, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Dirnfeld
    , contributor
    Comments (1128) | Send Message
     
    Ev is the future, tesla has a first mover advantage. The lead is now increasing.
    The company may well have a market cap of $100 billion one day.

     

    Once they establish an on going sequential quarterly growth trajectory and sales increases above 50% yoy, it will mega cap.

     

    The torch has been passed to a new generation.
    17 Jul 2013, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • evjohn
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    Joe,

     

    "The torch has been passed to a new generation. "

     

    It is about time. I have lived way to long with smelly ICE engines that I have to breath their fumes as I ride my bicycle on the street. EVs' time has FINALLY come. No turning back now. As the masses DISCOVER the REAL truth about how superior ALL EV's are in comparison to ICEs the flood gates will open. Now just wait till gas prices once again SPIKE at the gas pump - and they will. That will accelerate the change even faster then one can imagine. I predict the national average to be $4 by the end of the year. Every uptick in gas pump prices makes the EV that much more attractive.

     

    I also predict that Tesla will sell more cars in Europe for a while then in the USA. I understand that there are 500 Model S units on the way to Europe as I write this. WIth gas prices being double typically AND huge EV incentives it is a "no brainer" for those Europeans.

     

    All aboard!
    17 Jul 2013, 07:17 PM Reply Like
  • bnkbrakr
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Clever:
    R - Roadster
    S - Sedan
    T - Three
    17 Jul 2013, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • foodforthought
    , contributor
    Comments (223) | Send Message
     
    Today's activity was 1-) NASDAQ 100 inclusion related index-buying and 2-) another round of short-covering rally. Despite a "double whammy", TSLA fell short of reaching its 52 week high of $133.26. To me, next stop is below $100 heading into the 8/7 ER. By the way, $200 stock price target based on "2019" projections! Give me a break Andrea...LOL...Well, by 2019, gas will be cheaper than electricity thanks to the shale gas/oil boom.....
    18 Jul 2013, 12:27 AM Reply Like
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