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Nvidia shares take guidance, Tegra plunge in stride; "Tegra Tab" on tap?

  • Nvidia (NVDA -1.4%) fell only modestly after reporting light guidance to go with an FQ2 beat.
  • Healthy GPU sales (+9.3% Q/Q and +7.5% Y/Y to $858.6M) softened the response to nosediving Tegra sales (-49% Q/Q and -70.7% Y/Y to just $52.6M).
  • Nvidia, which previously guided for flat FY14 (ends Jan. '14) Tegra sales (a forecast already implying share loss), now thinks sales could fall by $200M-$300M from FY13's $750M.
  • On the CC, CEO Jen-Hsun Huang blamed the forecast, which comes as Tegra 4 hardware launches, on poor Windows RT hardware sales. However, Nvidia's dearth of major Android smartphone wins relative to Qualcomm, and Samsung's partial reliance on home-grown CPUs, are also clearly factors.
  • Meanwhile, Huang has confirmed reports a Tegra chip will go into the next version of Surface RT, and Chinese sites have published pictures said to depict an Nvidia-made tablet called the Tegra Tab.
  • One bright spot: Tesla server GPU sales +25% Q/Q and +128% Y/Y, evidence of strong HPC market demand. Also, Quadro workstation GPUs +9% Q/Q and +14% Y/Y, and desktop GPUs +14% Q/Q and +4% Y/Y (mix shift to high-end). Notebook GPUs -4% Q/Q and -2% Y/Y.
  • Given the state of PC sales, the GPU figures point to additional share gains relative to AMD.
  • In spite of a 6% Y/Y rev. drop, R&D spend +18% Y/Y to $331.7M. SG&A -10% to $108.3M.
  • Previous: Nvidia to license GPU IP for 3rd-party mobile processors
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