Seeking Alpha

Hope for Windows Phone in W. Europe, SE Asia?

  • IDC estimates Windows Phone (MSFT) only had a 3.7% global smartphone shipment share in Q2 on the back of 8.7M shipments (vs. 31.2M for the iPhone and 187.4M for Android).
  • But in spite of that figure (weighed down by low U.S. and Chinese shares), there are a handful of big markets where WP is faring notably better. As SA contributor Chandan Sarkar recently observed, Kantar estimates the OS' share has passed 8% in the U.K. and France, and (though falling) is still around 8% in Italy.
  • In May, Microsoft exec Terry Myerson claimed WP's share had hit 20% in Poland and Mexico. IDC puts its Polish and Mexican shares at 16% and 7%.
  • This week, Nokia (NOK) exec Jo Harlow claimed Nokia's smartphone share had topped 20% in Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam. If true, the Lumia 520 is likely responsible for a big chunk of those gains.
  • The numbers arrive at a time when reviewers frequently praise the hardware craftsmanship that goes into high-end Lumia models, but also argue Windows Phone - due to missing/inferior apps and features - is holding them back.
  • Previous: Nokia exec criticizes Microsoft
Comments (86)
  • Andreas Hopf
    , contributor
    Comments (8580) | Send Message
     
    Disagree. Kantar figures show stagnation or decline in Europe, with only two European market showing improvement: the UK and France. Mexico was 7% in June when Kantar measured OS market share, so there must have been an extraordinary event in July.

     

    See http://bit.ly/138vk4a

     

    As most recent AdDuplex figures show, Nokia predominantly manages to sell the low-margin Lumia 520/521 in substantial quantity; in fact, whereas market share increased substantially in China, Nokia's operating profit declined -9% in that region with net sales down.

     

    See http://bit.ly/1atf9hB

     

    Regarding WP8 OS lack of functionality, slow update cycle and apps

     

    See http://bit.ly/15X5i23 and particularly http://bit.ly/15Vtcej sorted by scope of function.
    10 Aug 2013, 06:16 AM Reply Like
  • Randal James
    , contributor
    Comments (2752) | Send Message
     
    Andreas,

     

    If the customers are so unhappy with Windows phones - as you suggest - why do they have the highest customer ratings on the three US networks that carry the 900-class phones? Could it be that while you find every conceivable flaw and shortcoming in Nokia, users of other phones including iPhones and Galaxies find theirs even worse?
    10 Aug 2013, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • Andreas Hopf
    , contributor
    Comments (8580) | Send Message
     
    Some existing customers in some countries surely like WP8 OS (note that I'm not referring to Nokias' devices; these are well designed and work - and are not and have not been the core problem). Nokia needs new customers, though; and very many of them, hopefully buying higher price-point models. If customer ratings in the U.S. are so very good - why is Nokia's U.S. market share declining since March (5.6% > 4.0%) and absolute number of devices sold close to irrelevance still (700k Q4 > 400k Q1 > 500k Q2)?

     

    Not so subtle hint: it is not Nokia's devices themselves, as those enjoy huge appreciation in European and American discussion forums by Android users.
    10 Aug 2013, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • Leont68
    , contributor
    Comments (1365) | Send Message
     
    I disagree with your disagreement system...
    10 Aug 2013, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Dallam
    , contributor
    Comments (8000) | Send Message
     
    AH

     

    "If customer ratings in the U.S. are so very good - why is Nokia's U.S. market share declining since March (5.6% > 4.0%) and absolute number of devices sold close to irrelevance still (700k Q4 > 400k Q1 > 500k Q2)?"

     

    Because you are using old data with old phone platforms and phones. For instance, I disregard everything before March of 2013 since that's when the real turnaround started showing itself to the consumer and corporate market. Everything, for me at least, is largely older Nokia WP7 and Symbian.

     

    In other words, there is a lag between the new Nokia line of products, WP8, and revenue vs sales numbers. You would do well to make your calculations from March forward.
    10 Aug 2013, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • Andreas Hopf
    , contributor
    Comments (8580) | Send Message
     
    "You would do well to make your calculations from March forward."

     

    Please re-read my post.
    10 Aug 2013, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • Leont68
    , contributor
    Comments (1365) | Send Message
     
    System, your post are designed to be confusing from the get go lols
    10 Aug 2013, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • mepa84
    , contributor
    Comments (70) | Send Message
     
    @ Andreas

     

    It seems things has significantly changed in US since introduction of L928, L521 and L520 in late May and June. I live in a town in New Mexico where Android is very popular and most of the people i talk with even are not awre of WP and Lumia. However, for the past few weeks I see many WPs in the hand o people, at least three for the past week.

     

    I checked a newly opened WalMart which is not very crowded and the salesman said they recieved twelve L521 last Monday where only one was left on thursday. A salesman in another WalMart told me that they call L521 flame as it flies off the shelves. He also said he sells a lot of L920.

     

    I have heard Lumias do much better in areas with more technical savvy people such as West and East coasts.
    11 Aug 2013, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • Andreas Hopf
    , contributor
    Comments (8580) | Send Message
     
    Well, Kantar and IDC measured end-of-June, so July and August should show a considerable upsurge. Let's see, if that will be the case.
    11 Aug 2013, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • flybywire54
    , contributor
    Comments (724) | Send Message
     
    Andreas

     

    The UK and France are very significant markets ranking number 2 and number 3 , behind Germany if one don't count Russia .
    11 Aug 2013, 09:36 PM Reply Like
  • HarryPothead
    , contributor
    Comments (259) | Send Message
     
    Another comment to ignore.
    12 Aug 2013, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • HarryPothead
    , contributor
    Comments (259) | Send Message
     
    Because Andreas has no clue and is bitter he wasn't bright enough to load up on Nokia stock.
    12 Aug 2013, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • HarryPothead
    , contributor
    Comments (259) | Send Message
     
    He just loves to hear himself spout off about nothing.
    12 Aug 2013, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • Andreas Hopf
    , contributor
    Comments (8580) | Send Message
     
    I am still quite happy with my recent NOK trade purchase @ €2,98 thank you very much. NOK is up @ €3,13 today. I thought selling last week, but did not after asking in NOK's StockTalk.

     

    Unfortunately, Blackberry's tortuous failure did not catalyse NOK upwards today (as I had hoped this morning when in Europe at 09:35 CET the news broke) so I would think, because of no other catalyst coming (and August/September being the weakest months on European exchanges), that next week could be a sell.

     

    And then, the next round of NOK tennis can be played.
    12 Aug 2013, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • Timothy Bryan
    , contributor
    Comments (757) | Send Message
     
    Randal,
    It is more because Andreas is the worst analyst of stocks--and this is particularly so as he spends so much time talking about Nokia--than any person I have had the pleasure to read.
    10 Aug 2013, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • Delphinus
    , contributor
    Comments (136) | Send Message
     
    @diablogun

     

    I disagree with you on the quality of Andreas' analysis. I feel that he/Systembolaget are highly qualified. The only problem is that they don't offer more than one side of their analysis (the negative aspects) to the readers contrary to a number of other high quality analysts who generously offer conclusions based on both pros and cons.
    10 Aug 2013, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • Timothy Bryan
    , contributor
    Comments (757) | Send Message
     
    Hi Delph,

     

    Your point is taken, but I can't help but wonder why a person who is nearly always wrong about a stock's prospects is taken seriously in relation to the analysis he provides. He may be a good person, but don't read his analysis unless you do so for its comedic value.
    10 Aug 2013, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • Hiep's Finance
    , contributor
    Comments (106) | Send Message
     
    Most optimistic analysts don't offer the other side of their analysis either. The problem is, a large number of people that participate in these discussions hold Nokia shares and get anxious and defensive when others tell them their Nokia investment is at risk. I find pessimistic analysts that have a reason like Andreas a much needed balance. Without people like him the discussions will be so boring with everyone saying how wonderful NOK is.

     

    The only one analyst that I think we need to ignore completely is Kofi Bofa who spreads false information and never responds to comments.
    10 Aug 2013, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • toraji
    , contributor
    Comments (787) | Send Message
     
    Hiep,

     

    totally agree with you..... BUT....... even Andreas runs out of arrows. he keeps repeating himself and the link to the features suggestions site from Microsoft (http://bit.ly/15Vtcej ) was posted 3times today. I also think andreas's articles keep some balance in us but hey, lately it seems he just wants to be right and with all the good things coming out after Nokia launched the 1020 (which has a huge impact on Nokia's visibility in the world of smart phones) he seems even more stubborn as if he does not like the good vibe at all. I can imagine he gets more and more comments against his view.
    10 Aug 2013, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Dallam
    , contributor
    Comments (8000) | Send Message
     
    Del,

     

    I concur. Well qualified, but oblique analysis.
    10 Aug 2013, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Dallam
    , contributor
    Comments (8000) | Send Message
     
    Dia,

     

    One reason is that, no matter how remote he gets with probability, there are things that he points out that are necessary to consider when calculating profit to loss ratios.

     

    As far as Nokia goes, if Nokia and MS fail to get the mobile market right, it won't be one of the biggest turn-arounds in history, but perhaps the number one failure of the century, including the last century. From my experience, MS is far to skilled a corporation to let that happen.

     

    Like Windows and MS's climb to OS dominance, they understand their platform is what founds the entire company, especially with free this and Open Source that replacing many applications that were solidly MS in the past. That's why MS is fully focused on Win 8 and Win Phone 8 platform and their parallel and eventually consolidated merger.

     

    Android will not be able to compete with an all in one Windows platform running on all devices and powering the corporate world. If MS gets this wrong, it's going to be a slow burn to insolvency. As such, Nokia in the cell phone business is riding the new preferred OS either up or down. Both Nokia and MS need each other currently because no other handset maker is seriously developing phones using the WP OS.

     

    Currently, and this is no sufficient condition for either Nokia's or MS's success:
    1. Nokia has the most advanced and build superior cell phones in the world.
    2. MS has the most powerful and dominant OS in the world, and now understands how important it is to be the same in the handset market.

     

    Those two points are why I'm long Nokia. I've seen people bet against MS now for 30 years, and no one has ever won that bet.
    10 Aug 2013, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • Timothy Bryan
    , contributor
    Comments (757) | Send Message
     
    Hiep,
    I could care less about optimistic or pessimistic; the metric to follow is how has one predicted the actual outcome of a stock's trajectory. We are here to discuss the stock, but when one babbles incessantly about the negative prospects for a stock, and that stock goes up in tandem with that babble, then we should probably disregard the words.

     

    I do think Andreas' guess for Q3 of about 9.3 (?) million Lumias may be accurate, but as he is unable to even admit that NSN is doing very well, his advice is absurd.
    10 Aug 2013, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • Timothy Bryan
    , contributor
    Comments (757) | Send Message
     
    DWD,
    Good remarks, and I would add that Nokia would be a resounding and profitable success if it garners 15 percent of the smart phone market, which is hardly an outrageous proposition. Folks like Andreas write as if Nokia is priced at 50 dollars a share, which would make their points far more salient.

     

    We are at 4, and to get to 30 we do not need to annihilate the competition, but merely become a 3rd stable ecosystem.
    10 Aug 2013, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • Delphinus
    , contributor
    Comments (136) | Send Message
     
    @diablogun

     

    While I don't like those who only present the positive side of their analysis either, you are right concerning the higher level of interest of the discussion when both kinds of these "show 50% of the analysis" people run their race and you certainly also have my 100% support on the opinion about Kofi Bofa.

     

    I still very much prefer analysts like Steinberg, Redrut and Hussain who write articles which are not the least boring and at the same time both highly professional and balanced.
    11 Aug 2013, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • Delphinus
    , contributor
    Comments (136) | Send Message
     
    @dwdallam

     

    Thanks, Dwa, for this very interesting and balanced comment. Nokia is still far from out of the woods and things could turn nasty. But there are some hopeful signs in the sky.
    12 Aug 2013, 05:58 AM Reply Like
  • Hiep's Finance
    , contributor
    Comments (106) | Send Message
     
    Toraji and diablogun,

     

    NOK has been a volatile stock for the last year. Take into account the facts that NOK is off its 52 weeks high and that NOK has gained 40% in the past 3 months, and we can't say for certain where NOK is headed next. Both the bulls and the bears have plenty of evidence to back up their opinions.

     

    The Lumia 1020 is a fantastic device, but so was the Lumia 920 when it came out, and as we have witnessed, the Lumia 920 failed to launch NOK on a stable upward trajectory. The Lumia 1020 has many issues, not with the hardware, but with basically everything else: pricing, marketing, production capacity, and most importantly, the still unpopular operating system. The sales have been reported as moderate as best. And the device hasn't been sold in any other market! How is the 1020 going to take the world by storm if it is simply not available in stores? I am not convinced that the 1020 has been a huge success. Maybe it will, maybe it won't, but empirical evidence so far hasn't been encouraging.

     

    The long NOK may consider Andreas' views nonsensical, but I suspect the short NOK think the same way about the long's views. Again, I favor a scientific approach based on empirical evidence, not speculation based on emotion and bias.
    12 Aug 2013, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • Hiep's Finance
    , contributor
    Comments (106) | Send Message
     
    dwdallam,

     

    I was just thinking about this yesterday. Nokia placed a risky bet on the success of Microsoft's Windows Phone platform. Contradictory to the proven "fire bullets, then cannonball" approach, they went all in and fired a cannonball right away. But as you pointed out, this is a bet that has a low chance of failure. Microsoft's future is tied to Windows Phone, and we can take it for granted that Microsoft is not going to let itself fail. The only risk I see in this strategy is that of Microsoft being too slow to respond to market needs and missing the golden opportunity. Microsoft has enough resources to keep itself afloat during trial and error, but Nokia unfortunately does not, and that's why Nokia has publicly voiced their warning toward Microsoft recently and needs to push even harder.
    12 Aug 2013, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • Hiep's Finance
    , contributor
    Comments (106) | Send Message
     
    Delphinus,

     

    Could you be referring to my post, by any chance?
    12 Aug 2013, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • Timothy Bryan
    , contributor
    Comments (757) | Send Message
     
    Hi Hiep,
    if one takes away the 20-30 appreciation in the past 3-4 months, all the while the bears have been talking down the stock, all the while the 928, 925, 1020, 501, and 625 have been launched and well received, all the while NSN has been bought out and is performing splendidly, and with 30 Lumia percent Q over Q sales for 2 quarters running, it is decidedly illogical to espouse the view that Nokia is doing badly.

     

    It flirted with BK, and is now surging back. The idiot bears are just going to have to deal with that. I just want to hear a bear state their short position, because unlike us longs that have put our money up and profited well, the bears have nothing to show for their efforts other than looking idiotic. This is not a fair fight; the stock is not going to be revisiting 3.50 anytime soon, and is likely to be over 5 by next earnings.

     

    Oh, and their "unpopular" OS is 10 times better than that laggy piece of trash Android; it will just take time for the market to see that. One can get rich on this stock or plod on in their intellectual stupor.
    13 Aug 2013, 02:05 AM Reply Like
  • Hiep's Finance
    , contributor
    Comments (106) | Send Message
     
    Hi diablogun,

     

    I'd be cautious about these recently launched products. There is no doubt about them being well received by the technology world; they are fine pieces of hardware. However, it is the sales that matter for market share as well as the bottom line, and so far, the signals from vendors have not been encouraging. We all know Windows Phone 8 is a more efficient operating system than Android, but that has not been enough to convince consumers to switch.

     

    30% quarter-over-quarter for 2 quarters running is not really convincing if the end result is still a single-digit market share and negative profits. Growth should be measured in percentages as well as in absolute values. 30% sounds like a lot, but, for example, would an increase from 3% to 4% sound significant to you?

     

    Calling the bears idiots is overreacting and unfair. They have their own reasoning. They want the stock down as much as we want it up. Stock's down, they win, we lose. Stock's down, they lose, we win. Fair game.

     

    Many people on this board have predicted things like $10 by the end of the year, $5 by the end of Q2, and such and such. What I believe in is logical reasoning and empirical evidence. Not saying that you may not be right - but don't bet everything on it.
    13 Aug 2013, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • Timothy Bryan
    , contributor
    Comments (757) | Send Message
     
    Hi Hiep,
    It is always best to be cautious, but Lumia is starting from a very low point and with a very low market cap, especially considering that NSN and patents could well be worth considerably more than the current stock price.
    As to calling bears idiotic, the truth is never something to be ashamed of :-)
    13 Aug 2013, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • Hiep's Finance
    , contributor
    Comments (106) | Send Message
     
    Hi diablogun,
    It is exactly because Lumia started from basically nothing that I am worried they will not reach critical mass quickly enough to become significant player. Nokia is feeling the heat and is pressuring Microsoft to be more aggressive about improving the Windows Phone 8 ecosystem.

     

    The uncertainty surrounding Lumia is that it is all eggs in one basket, and its success depends on an uncontrollable factor: Microsoft's strategies. So far Microsoft has lagged behind Nokia in the push for the Lumia line, and Microsoft's lukewarm reaction concerns me. So far most of the bears' argument points to the weaknesses of the Windows Phone 8 operating system. I'd say that this argument deserves merit.

     

    Patents are a huge asset for Nokia; however, Nokia is running out of cash to pour on R&D, and technology patents become obsolete and lose value rather quickly in this era. Nokia needs to put the patents to good use, but in order to do that they need to capture more market share and reinforce their cash reserve. Time is money, and Nokia is running out of both, mostly due to Microsoft.
    13 Aug 2013, 07:25 PM Reply Like
  • Timothy Bryan
    , contributor
    Comments (757) | Send Message
     
    Hi Hiep,

     

    LUmias are expanding nicely, from the 925 to the 520 to the 1020.

     

    I think you are focusing too much on these types of forums. The Lumia battle will be won in the markets of India and China and Europe and SE Asia, they will not have anything to do with those that say Microsoft doesn't care. The reality is that WP is FAR better than droid, and this comes from a man who owned four crappy droids in a row that I hated more with each new unit.

     

    Remember that the price is 4.00, not 40. At worst this will triple, and if executed well it will make you oodles of money, even if NOkia only gets 10 percent of the smart phone market (about half of what I expect).
    13 Aug 2013, 07:54 PM Reply Like
  • toraji
    , contributor
    Comments (787) | Send Message
     
    @hiep and diablo

     

    Although I love the conversations between all participants I have to point out that wp8 is winning market share...slow (I admit that) but winning.

     

    What more do we want? I don't care if we win it in Asia or Europe the fact is we are winning market share and lets be honest we win it with very decent devices (also the cheap ones are really good)

     

    I am not in a rush, I think it is even better to slowly win market share because if you build something from the ground up the foundation is rock solid and I believe MS and NOK are realizing that way more then we do. Both of them are in a uphill battle and they are slowly winning ground.

     

    We can push as hard as we want, but I think the slow approach is the way to go and that is what they are doing

     

    LONG NOK!!!!! I always loved their products (ROCK SOLID)
    13 Aug 2013, 09:40 PM Reply Like
  • Hiep's Finance
    , contributor
    Comments (106) | Send Message
     
    Hi diablogun,

     

    The only Lumia product that has taken significant market share this year is the 520. The 925 hasn't seen remarkable sales, while the 1020 hasn't even been offered outside of the US yet. So it is speculative to say that the 925 and 1020 are expanding nicely.

     

    I come from a Southeast Asias country myself, so I do know how people feel about Windows Phone devices. Most people over there don't like to pay for apps, and spend a lot of time playing games on their smartphones. The disadvantages of Microsoft's Windows Store are magnified in the developing markets.

     

    I think I already addressed the impact of Windows Phone 8 being a more efficient operating system earlier in our discussion, so I don't feel the need to repeat myself.

     

    What is your basis for the price tripling prediction? Any quantitative analysis? And what is the time frame for the market share progress? 1 month? 12 months? 3 years? If you have a source for those figures please share with us - if the analysis is reasonable it will make a lot of bears shut their mouths.
    14 Aug 2013, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • Hiep's Finance
    , contributor
    Comments (106) | Send Message
     
    toraji,

     

    Windows Phone 8 needs to hit critical mass before too late. Right now there is still opportunity to advocate the Windows Phone brand. If Windows Phone 8 devices fail to capture a significant share of the market soon, they will also fail to attract app developers and make themselves even less attractive to consumers. This is why market share is so important in the smartphone industry. Nokia can't afford to wait. There exists also the looming threat of Nokia investors forcing the company to abandon the Windows Phone project should they lose patience.
    14 Aug 2013, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • toraji
    , contributor
    Comments (787) | Send Message
     
    Hiep,

     

    I agree, but many times I feel we want more then they actually can give. I am reading all over the web that speed is needed and I believe NOK and MS are pushing. Microsoft and NOK are in this together until 2016 so we have two more years of upgrading and app building. I believe that by the end of this year many apps will be added and If they continue their paste as they do now we have nothing to complain.

     

    Regards
    t
    14 Aug 2013, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • Andreas Hopf
    , contributor
    Comments (8580) | Send Message
     
    "So it is speculative to say that the 925 and 1020 are expanding nicely."

     

    In Europe, Nokia's core market apart from Asia, the Lumia 1020 will not even ship to consumers before September or even October in numbers. Nokia phones are not in the top 10s of relevant retailers in most European countries, either.

     

    "The disadvantages of Microsoft's Windows Store are magnified in the developing markets."

     

    Good point. Hardly any regional/local app with utility value exists and developers there, strapped for cash, rather flock to Androids SDKs and free devtools.
    14 Aug 2013, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • Timothy Bryan
    , contributor
    Comments (757) | Send Message
     
    Hi Hiep,

     

    The 925 is currently ramping in many countries it was not available in during Q2, including most importantly India. Where do you get that its sales are not remarkable for its price point? Moreover, it is being priced quite high, which tells Nokia is getting quite a lot for it relative to its other models. The 1020 is in a class on its own, and as such will be at the top price-wise where it is opening at more than 800 dollars a unit in China. Is it your contention that they will sell very low amounts of both the 925 and 1020? If so, it is not an opinion I share.

     

    As for tripling, Nokia has now about 3 percent of the smart phone market. Assuming profitability becomes a reality at 10 million or so units a quarter, a an 8-10 percent Nokia share would probably mean 25 million units and growing a quarter. Assuming economies of scale kicking in, it is very conservative to assume the share price would at least triple at that point. I could break out that numbers in depth on that assumption, but you get the point. I also think with the move towards growing mobile, NSN will begin to challenge Ericsson in the next couple of years. As Ericsson has a market cap of 40 billion dollars and all of Nokia is only 15, I think you can see this stock is absurdly priced at a very low level.

     

    Thoughts?
    14 Aug 2013, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • Hiep's Finance
    , contributor
    Comments (106) | Send Message
     
    Hi diablogun,

     

    Again, your claim that the 925 and the 1020 are expanding nicely is not supported by any sales figure. It seems to be all guesswork at this point, and guesswork is not a basis for an argument.

     

    You still haven't provided a time frame for the 10% market share. The impact would be very different if that market share happened within a year vs in 10 years. There are costs to achieving market share. What will the profit margin be? Will Nokia have to sacrifice profit for revenue? What if the 10% market share will mostly be subsidized, low-end phones that make 0 or negative profit? Will Nokia run out of cash by the time they achieve 10% market share? There are way too many variables out there to make a simple estimate and hope for it to be somewhat realistic.
    14 Aug 2013, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • Timothy Bryan
    , contributor
    Comments (757) | Send Message
     
    Hi Hiep,
    Again, it is expanding because it was not available in these countries before. It may be your opinion that it will not sell in the countries they are being expanded to, but they are expanding nevertheless.

     

    I think 10 percent will happen next year, probably in the second half; however, I think we will be profitable in D & S this quarter.

     

    What figures do you base your thought that they are selling anything at "0 or negative profit"?

     

    Their profit margins seem to be 25-30 percent across all price points. Do you have anything that contradicts this?

     

    Investing is rather simple. Choose a macro view that you think will be fulfilled based off a company's prospects, and follow it. Quite simply, Nokia will reach at least 10 percent of the smart phone market (probably 20 in my view), and will do it as they are doing now: by growing each quarter. NSN will be hugely profitable as it is now, and the stock will flourish.

     

    Otherwise you can be like Andreas and find reasons why it will not succeed, all the while the stock jumps 20 percent or more. I'm up 30 thousand bucks in 3 months, and expect to make many times that in the next year. The facts speak for themselves, as it is a stock that will determine who is right here. The bears are wrong, and will continue to be so.
    14 Aug 2013, 06:45 PM Reply Like
  • Delphinus
    , contributor
    Comments (136) | Send Message
     
    @Hiep

     

    Yes. Sorry
    15 Aug 2013, 02:05 AM Reply Like
  • Poeli
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    The US folks never liked Nokia. Here in Belgium I do see more and more lumias. Last week I was at a party with some girls, they were taking photos at night with their Iphones. I took some with my lumia, let them use it to tag themselves on facebook and send it to facebook and they were amazed. They looked at their iphones as a piece of junk.

     

    I'll give it some more time. But my feeling is is that lumia its share is certainly growing in Belgium.
    10 Aug 2013, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • Randal James
    , contributor
    Comments (2752) | Send Message
     
    Poeli,

     

    Thanks for the report from Belgium. One of the things US followers on these threads spot right away is the diversity of the contributors. Nokia certainly has wide support and rightfully so.

     

    I really don't mean to be dismissive of any of the players here. We can't help but admire how well Apple did, but recently that has been in the past tense, not so much lately. Nokia's comeback (sure, with MSFT help) is one of the better business stories of our time.

     

    I hope you are rewarded for your patience - but it sounds that if you are impressing girls at night with your phone you are already getting an unexpected dividend. :)
    10 Aug 2013, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • Doug Dallam
    , contributor
    Comments (8000) | Send Message
     
    Po,

     

    Are you kidding? US customers loved Nokia, but Nokia didn't love itself. Just wait, Nokia will become a household cell name once again if things remain positive for the NOK turnaround.

     

    US consumers may be ignorant and me too oriented about their products, but when the word gets out, like it did with the iPhone, they, being me too, will buy into it. The next best thing NOK could do to increase it's quality name is to make a virtually indestructible cell phone made with GTAT's Saphire Glass and some form of virtually indestructible case material, like a deformable carbon fiber, and make that water proof to 20 feet.

     

    That way sports oriented people would have an underwater camera and all of the other qualities they need for rock climbing, hiking, boating, scuba, etc. To keep cost under control, they would use the 500 series technology inside.
    10 Aug 2013, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • buddyboy22
    , contributor
    Comments (44) | Send Message
     
    andreas, its gotten to a point now where as soon as i see your name i just skip right past your comment. it seems to me your sole obsession is to troll SA bashing on NOK. you've written 4 articles ALL bashing NOK, yet there are over 3800 comments. for you to put so much effort into a stock you clearly dislike, is beyond reason accept for perhaps the possibility that you see them as quite the threat.
    10 Aug 2013, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • june1234
    , contributor
    Comments (2626) | Send Message
     
    Just switched to Lumia 928. All in all great phone. Windows store is slim pickings, its getting better ; some great apps. Need to do something in reviews quality control dept; wasted a lot of time downloading 5 stars rated apps that are junk. VZ promotes the phone 17 hrs continuous use 21 or 22hrs standby, maybe if you email and take an occasional photo, any game or nav app will chew battery up in 3 hrs ;super quick,user friendly platform, great music audio. Servers synch every 30 minutes so data not always real time, awesome photos. Phone will not let you switch to 3G if 4G is available. All in all great phone .
    10 Aug 2013, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • toraji
    , contributor
    Comments (787) | Send Message
     
    June,

     

    Glad you are happy with your phone but I see you need some help in a few things to make you enjoy your phone even better

     

    with 5 star rated apps also look to how many ratings they have and (I also downloaded apps that had high rating but totally were not what I expected) read the revieuws

     

    Your battery, I learned that battery life has to do with how you treat your battery. When I first had my 925 the battery was not as good as it is now. I only charge when it is really empty (download battery level for WP) this will help you with accurate battery usage/level. I easily get12 hours with heavy usage and I basically only charge at night.

     

    for you email syncing go to:
    Settings, email + accounts, click on the email account you want to sync and change download new content to as Items arrive.

     

    Your phone should automatically pick up the strongest signal available 3g/4g/wifi

     

    It is a great phone so I hope my suggestion make you enjoy it even more

     

    regards
    t
    10 Aug 2013, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • Randal James
    , contributor
    Comments (2752) | Send Message
     
    June,

     

    I am surely not one who shops for apps, but is there any 3rd-party place where you can get a different user rating before you buy? I almost always will double check an item from a traditional retailer, such as an electric razor or juicer, on Amazon and read through the ratings carefully. It has saved me from making the mistake of a good buy vs. a poor model.
    10 Aug 2013, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • Leont68
    , contributor
    Comments (1365) | Send Message
     
    june, also try app social to discover more useful apps in the windows store http://bit.ly/16Cc6kx

     

    I agree games chew up a lot of juice. I find if i limit my live tiles and back ground task it helps our my battery life a lot.
    10 Aug 2013, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Dallam
    , contributor
    Comments (8000) | Send Message
     
    One way to stop apps from being junkers is to allow users to download them and use them for several hours, or even a few days. if they like them, a nag screen would prompt them to buy it, or it auto-disables itself.

     

    Better yet, someone needs to build a side-loading app that allows us to run non MS certified apps and Open Source apps. I can't believe MS locked its WP system down like that. That, as I understand it, is MS WP Achilles heel.
    10 Aug 2013, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • Matthew Davis
    , contributor
    Comments (3840) | Send Message
     
    Or just search Microsoft in the store and you can see all their proprietary apps, more than I thought they'd have...Blink is awesome, didnt know abou that one.
    10 Aug 2013, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  • Kutvonen
    , contributor
    Comments (11) | Send Message
     
    In Finland Nokia has 5-6 phones in top 10 selling list on main operators Elisa and Sonera. Nokia is getting there for sure.
    10 Aug 2013, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • Joao Beca
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    I really don't understand why people complaint with Microsoft. They are building a good base for the future and they don't want repeat mistakes of the pass. When W8, WP8, Xbox & Win RT all working together it will be impossible for the competition to have the same level of ecosystem. Microsoft wants to make this right
    10 Aug 2013, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Dallam
    , contributor
    Comments (8000) | Send Message
     
    JB

     

    I would go as far as to say that MS understands that getting it right is a necessary condition of its survival.
    10 Aug 2013, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • alukro
    , contributor
    Comments (76) | Send Message
     
    If not survival, then at least regain its dominance.
    11 Aug 2013, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • techy46
    , contributor
    Comments (6194) | Send Message
     
    Microsoft's miscue on WP7 which required redo with WP8 as a true SMP OS cost Nokia an entire year of wasted marketing and ultimately poor consumer response to the WP7 to WP8 upgrade fiasco. MS's subsequent lack of OS features illustrates why they missed the mobile PC boat for the last decade. MS can ultimately gain 30%+ share of the mobile market over the next 5+ years but has forever lost the majority share they have enjoyed in Wintel PC markets. Nokia can survive but once they perfect their hardware should offer Android and Windows if MS doesn't buy them sooner.
    10 Aug 2013, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • toraji
    , contributor
    Comments (787) | Send Message
     
    Is it 2016 already??? Did I miss something????
    10 Aug 2013, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Dallam
    , contributor
    Comments (8000) | Send Message
     
    tec,

     

    If he WP gets 30% MS why would NOK want to undermine that by diluting it's offering with Android? I've always thought that since the handset market is fully saturated with Android, it is much better for a company to use a different system, a superior system, and push that system, like makers did with Android, until it is also completely saturated.
    10 Aug 2013, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Dallam
    , contributor
    Comments (8000) | Send Message
     
    tor

     

    It's 1984, Orwellian calendar.
    10 Aug 2013, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • toraji
    , contributor
    Comments (787) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for waking me up in time... BIG brother still watching???

     

    ;o)
    10 Aug 2013, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • Andreas Hopf
    , contributor
    Comments (8580) | Send Message
     
    "Microsoft's miscue on WP7 which required redo with WP8 as a true SMP OS cost Nokia an entire year of wasted marketing and ultimately poor consumer response to the WP7 to WP8 upgrade fiasco."

     

    Agree. Not only consumers were thrown under the bus - many European and Asian developers (Nokia sells only ~6.76% in North America) threw in the towel. Remember: Microsoft released the full WP8 SDK two months (!) after the Lumia 920 launch.

     

    I still believe the possibility is there that Dodge & Cox is speculating on a break-up (HERE and NSN sold or IPOed) leading to Microsoft buying the Nokia carcass in form of Devices & Services and a nice balance sheet.

     

    But, who knows? Maybe Stephen Elop can pull out an Android strand or there are clandestine Android skunkworks going on, assessing what-if scenarios. So far, Google's "wrath" has been directed at Microsoft, not Nokia. For any outsider, it is unfortunately absolutely impossible to peek into the mutual contract Nokia signed with Microsoft.
    10 Aug 2013, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • flybywire54
    , contributor
    Comments (724) | Send Message
     
    @ Andreas .
    "Microsoft's miscue on WP7 which required redo with WP8 as a true SMP OS cost Nokia an entire year of wasted marketing and ultimately poor consumer response to the WP7 to WP8 upgrade fiasco."
    How many time are you going to repeat this ? With all due respect , you really start to sound like an old woman whining about the past.
    . Incidentally many WP phone owners have WP7.8 phones and are very satisfied with these . I start to believe that you have an ax to grind .
    Meanwhile the rest of the world is moving on and watching lumia sales increase significantly every quarter . If that stops ,I might reconsider my position , but not until then .

     

    Long Nokia
    10 Aug 2013, 10:02 PM Reply Like
  • Andreas Hopf
    , contributor
    Comments (8580) | Send Message
     
    flybywire54 - you did not read carefully, otherwise you would have realised that what you quote from my comment was quoted by me from techy46's comment.
    11 Aug 2013, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • flybywire54
    , contributor
    Comments (724) | Send Message
     
    Andreas

     

    alright fine . But you agreed with that statement .
    11 Aug 2013, 08:48 PM Reply Like
  • Canadian Red Neck
    , contributor
    Comments (351) | Send Message
     
    At present, my family uses Android smartphones (Samsung Captivate & S3, Galaxy Nexus). We used to use Nokia and Blackberry cell phones. When we got into smartphone, there was nothing from Nokia and Blackberry. However, we have been checking out Nokia and Blackberry the last few months in preparation for the upcoming upgrade. The main issue we have with our current smartphones is connectivity. Unfortunately, many smartphone manufacturers forget that there are many of us who use smartphone to make calls.

     

    3 weeks ago, we visited a Microsoft kiosk in a shopping mall to check out the Nokia smartphones and Surface RT. We have 2 Blackberry Playbook and are looking to replace them after Blackberry's announcement that these will no longer be supported. Well, we bought one Surface RT with type keyboard and like it so far. It meets our needs and uses. We may buy another one.

     

    My wife commented that the Lumia 920 would be her next smartphone. She uses a Window 8 laptop (non-touch) at home. The UI is similar. She likes the design, especially the bright red one. Overall, I believe that Nokia's designs are more eyecatching. I like the 1020 and may get it with the camera accessory.

     

    As far as apps are concerned, WP8 and Windows 8 have all the apps we need. The ones that would be nice to have are Google's map and gmail. But there are alternatives.

     

    I believe that Microsoft and Nokia will eventually get their share of tablet and smartphone market. This may come sooner and the share larger than a lot of people think.
    10 Aug 2013, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • Randal James
    , contributor
    Comments (2752) | Send Message
     
    Canadian RN

     

    5 bonus points for "...many smartphone manufacturers forget that there are many of us who use a smartphone to make calls."
    10 Aug 2013, 08:31 PM Reply Like
  • flybywire54
    , contributor
    Comments (724) | Send Message
     
    Living in nearby Malaysia at the moment , and traveling in the region albeit not very recently , I am glad to hear that Nokia lumias have gained 20% market share in Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand with a combined population of more then 300 millions , almost the size of the US . Indonesia and Thailand were BlackBerry strongholds and given that BB has not been active on low cost phones , Lumia appear to have taken away a significant chunk of their market share .
    Here in Malaysia the situation though is not as rosy . Samsung is still the king with an enormous amount of efforts on marketing by Samsung Malaysia . As a result people mindset is still focused on Samsung with iPhones making for most of the rest . However i begin to see significant efforts by Nokia in Malaysia . First of all , many retailers , have started to display lumias along with Ashas 501 very prominently , hard to miss given their colorful casing . The largest operator , Maxis is proposing the lumia 920 alongside the galaxy S4 , Iphone , and HTC one on a two year contract but it remains costly to go along that scheme , so people prefer to buy their phones from retailers and go for prepaid contracts without phones or post paid on the go . However the same Maxis is offering the 520 for free with a two year contract , alongside with low/mid range droids so I expect to see more lumias making their way into customers hand .
    Talking about Europe also interesting to see the very good progress of windows phone among my French compatriots .

     

    Long Nokia
    10 Aug 2013, 11:22 PM Reply Like
  • villevittumainen
    , contributor
    Comments (11) | Send Message
     
    I enjoyed Systembolaget, but Andreas Hopf I find boring.
    11 Aug 2013, 06:13 AM Reply Like
  • flybywire54
    , contributor
    Comments (724) | Send Message
     
    Indeed ...
    11 Aug 2013, 06:57 AM Reply Like
  • EagleView
    , contributor
    Comments (116) | Send Message
     
    ville, of course! Systembolaget is where the swedes (and the norwegians) find heaven. :-))))
    11 Aug 2013, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • mepa84
    , contributor
    Comments (70) | Send Message
     
    On the contrary, systembolaget is a place where Swedes pay a lot of unfair taxes, for example, $1.5 per bottle of beer.

     

    I am happy that Andreas changed his name. Also, i like his comments which are very realistic, not like many fellow SA contributors who are used to draw a rosy picture of all type of news.
    11 Aug 2013, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • flybywire54
    , contributor
    Comments (724) | Send Message
     
    An article I find interesting about Microsoft particularly as far as enterprise customers are concerned . It might not necessarily mean a lot for Nokia, but at least having a partner with a future is better then having one on the decline .

     

    http://onforb.es/16IGWtV
    11 Aug 2013, 06:56 AM Reply Like
  • mc10010
    , contributor
    Comments (169) | Send Message
     
    My crystal ball.

     

    Headline

     

    MSFT buys NOK $50B.
    11 Aug 2013, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • User 13817612
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    I Live in Thailand and am long Nokia, but find it very hard to belive Nokia has 20% share here.I see more activity, more marketing support on public transport, but not yet so many in the hands of commuters... the commuter is pretty good way to obse rve market penetration. Still Lumia brand awareness is growing,and this is necessary prerequisite to the turn around.

     

    In my opinion the upside for Nokia stock price if they get it right is very far, the downside not so....in terms of risk reward its the best cell phone bet.
    11 Aug 2013, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • mepa84
    , contributor
    Comments (70) | Send Message
     
    @user 138....

     

    Thanks for the useful info. Please note that 20% of share in these countries mean that 20 percent of sold phones in the recent weeks, probably since July, were Lumias. On the other hand, these sold phones make up a small fraction of all phones in the hands of people or the installed base. Lumia phones probably have a 2-3 percent share of all smartphones in that region. In other words, you can only see 2 or 3 Lumia phones in the hand of 100 your fellow commuters.
    11 Aug 2013, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • Andreas Hopf
    , contributor
    Comments (8580) | Send Message
     
    Jo Harlow (Nokia) said at CommNexus:

     

    "In Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam, we recently broke through 20 percent market share with Lumia, so obviously the Windows Phone platform is becoming really significant”

     

    Anyone reading this would read that statement for what it says: 20% smartphone market share in total, not market share in July or any other recent time period. Therefore, one would expect every 5th smartphone observed in the dense public to be a Lumia device.
    11 Aug 2013, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • mepa84
    , contributor
    Comments (70) | Send Message
     
    AH,

     

    It probably means that in the last two weeks they have sold 1/5 of all sold smartphones sold in those markets, it looks clear from wordings. Common sense says in order to climb 16% in installed base from 4 to 20 percent in one month they should have sold all smartphones sold in tjose markets, most probably they even need to
    sell more than that.
    11 Aug 2013, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • flybywire54
    , contributor
    Comments (724) | Send Message
     
    Smartphones only yes . Not 20% of all phones .
    11 Aug 2013, 08:42 PM Reply Like
  • flybywire54
    , contributor
    Comments (724) | Send Message
     
    @mepas & Andreas
    The statement by Jo Harlow means effectively that one customer in 5 with a smartphone has a lumia in those 3 countries she mentioned. That is a pretty high market share given that here in neighboring Malaysia I don't see many lumias to be frank
    But even if it reflects sales for July only , it would be a remarkable achievement particularly if those sales numbers can be sustained .
    11 Aug 2013, 09:49 PM Reply Like
  • kwright62
    , contributor
    Comments (11) | Send Message
     
    The minute that business adopts android MS will be marginalized. I am a huge fan of Windows 8 and Windows phone but won't let that color my judgment.

     

    As stated above the interplay between the phone, laptop and cloud are completely seamless with MS. This combined with the software that is in use at work (healthcare) means that MS will be with me for a while.
    11 Aug 2013, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • growingwildgs
    , contributor
    Comments (107) | Send Message
     
    Positive reviews are all I am reading about. As I stated in the past make a good product the apps will come: Quote off Amazon

     

    As Fabian noted, Instance for instagram is just as good if not better. But as of today the Offical Instagram is set to be released in July 2013. HBO Go is already in Romaina and waiting for streaming rights to be resolved for the US. For those who are reading this and those who have it, don't let the lack of a few, and I mean a very few apps stop you from getting this phone. Windows Phone 8 is new and still the app store has over 150,000 apps including the top apps or its equivalent as the other OS's. Android and iOS has had five years to develop apps while Windows Phone has only been around going on 3years with Windows Phone 8 only being 7 months old. The point is that major apps and developers are being added rapidly. One month ago, there was no word of Instagram, Banking Apps, or HBO GO coming to Windows Phone. However, since the sale of Windows Phone is doing very well, developers are coming aboard and making the apps that people want. Now in less than a month, a ton of new and wanted apps are appearing on Windows Phone Store almost daily. Patience is the Word of the Day. The best and popular apps of the other OS's are already here or coming soon. Never the less I bet you can find a app for what you need to do right now.
    11 Aug 2013, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • flybywire54
    , contributor
    Comments (724) | Send Message
     
    Let's put it this way , if one in 10 customer currently using a Nokia basic or feature phone buys a lumia , even a 520/521 , that's 150 millions lumia smartphones sold , given that there are 1.5 billions Nokia phones in circulation worldwide . That should give enough time for Nokia to wait for more apps and WP blue , unless MSFT falls asleep , not a likely prospect . Those customers won't go for the 9xx series or the 1020 anyway only those with Galaxy's or Iphone might switch to high end lumias , but then apps is a problem for now which is why it is not happening . . The switch scheme will be the second phase of Elop master plan .

     

    Long Nokia
    12 Aug 2013, 05:56 AM Reply Like
  • Randal James
    , contributor
    Comments (2752) | Send Message
     
    Insider Monkey on new specs for the NOK 1030, released for other carriers in time for jingle jingle season. Reminder: rumor

     

    http://bit.ly/16459K4
    12 Aug 2013, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • flybywire54
    , contributor
    Comments (724) | Send Message
     
    @Randal James

     

    Nice to know that Nokia is coming with call and sms filtering/blocking , that was one of the key feature missing . Thanks for the link .
    13 Aug 2013, 01:34 AM Reply Like
  • toraji
    , contributor
    Comments (787) | Send Message
     
    the 925 and 1020 models have amber already installed and did get the filter/blocking a few days ago and it works really well. I am not receiving messages and phone calls from my mother in law anymore :-)))
    13 Aug 2013, 03:13 PM Reply Like
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