Jefferies' Peter Misek, one of the more fervent BlackBerry (BBRY -1%) bulls out there (previous), says checks indicate BB10 build order plans were cut to 1M from 2M+ in July, and that plans have been cut by at least another 10% in August.
BMO and Pac Crest have reported of rising BB10 channel inventories in the past.
Misek: "We believe the build plan cut indicates sell-through is tracking well below [the Street's Aug. quarter] $3.1B revenue estimate." He adds Canadian store checks point to "a slow start" for the Q5, and price cuts for the Q10.
He's lowering his Aug. quarter (FQ2) total and BB10 phone shipment estimates to 5M and 2M (FQ1 shipments were 6.8M and ~2.7M), and his revenue estimate to just $2.3B.
Nonetheless, Misek is reiterating a Buy on acquisition/LBO hopes. His PT has been lowered to $18 from $21, but that's still 74% above current levels.
Separately, evleaks reports Verizon is set to begin selling the Z10 for free with a 2-year contract. The phone currently goes for a subsidized $100.