Seeking Alpha

Rate worries again rout income favorites

  • A solid selloff in mortgage REITs (REM -3.7%) turns into a rout as the 10-year Treasury yield takes out another 2-year high at 2.89%. Looking at the short end, September 2015 Eurodollar futures at 98.65 are pricing in more than 100 bps of rate hikes between now and then.
  • American Capital (AGNC -5.8%), Armour (ARR -7.5%), Apollo (AMTG -4.9%), Ellington (EARN -4.8%), Anworth (ANH -5.5%), Western Asset (WMC -5.7%), Arlington Asset (AI -4.7%), Dynex (DX -5.1%), Newcastle (NCT -2.3%).
  • Mentioned before as starting to look very cheap, Annaly (NLY -4.9%) losses deepen with the stock at $10.72 - its lowest price since 2001 (the dividend fell to $0.25 at the end of 2000 before rising to $0.68 by the start of 2002).
  • Tumbling income funds include (KFN -2%), and (PTY -2.1%).
  • Among equity REITs, Realty Income (O -1.8%), Medical Properties (MPW -2.4%), and Simon Property Group (SPG -1%) lead down, but HCP (HCP +0.6%) remains green.
Comments (85)
  • Doyle3000
    , contributor
    Comments (1222) | Send Message
     
    be greedy when everyone is fearful.

     

    does the market not realize that the House is going to reconvene in September and start another huge debate about the debt ceiling?

     

    does everyone forget what happens when these debates start?

     

    everyone will run to treasuries and the rate will dip and these interest senstive stocks will jump.
    19 Aug 2013, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • bagleytravis68
    , contributor
    Comments (66) | Send Message
     
    I completely agree that buying when unjustified sell offs are happening is key, however, finding a good bottom to get in poses a bit more of a problem.
    19 Aug 2013, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • canewkirk
    , contributor
    Comments (19) | Send Message
     
    don't worry about market timing on the purchase. when the numbers say "buy" get in. if it goes a little lower, you won't remember it a year from now. I just wish I wasn't out of investment cash at the moment, i see several in the buy category.
    19 Aug 2013, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • RWMostow
    , contributor
    Comments (1300) | Send Message
     
    Cane-

     

    Do you mind sharing with us what you "see?"

     

    Thanks for commenting and best wishes.

     

    -rwm
    19 Aug 2013, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • RS055
    , contributor
    Comments (1484) | Send Message
     
    Of all the people in history who were "greedy when others were fearful", most of them imploded ( too greedy , too early etc) , of course a handful happened to be very greedy at the exactly right time - and this handful got rich - and some even write books.
    19 Aug 2013, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • Fracjob
    , contributor
    Comments (1080) | Send Message
     
    Why do you think you are out of cash, rookie?
    20 Aug 2013, 02:39 AM Reply Like
  • bagleytravis68
    , contributor
    Comments (66) | Send Message
     
    I just hope we see the bottom very soon. Many people have said we have hit the bottom, they are undervalued, and so on. Yet anyone who has held on or even bought more has only seen massive red to show for it. Short term I see a disaster. These drop for next to no reason with tons of emotional selling. No one can predict what is going on. I bought into a few at what seemed like a good bottom. Today I still have double digit loses. I do hope these turn around and people start trading with facts rather than fear. The first big sell off was understood as it was implied BV would fall, but even now with projected rates factored in they keep dropping. Honestly, at this point I would rather just ride the roller coaster and collect the payouts.
    19 Aug 2013, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • murray555
    , contributor
    Comments (198) | Send Message
     
    It might be good to revisit why you bought mreits in the first place. Did you want the high yield? If so, did you plan to harvest the high yield for a short while and then sell? Or did you plan to hold the stocks and continue to harvest the yield.

     

    Did you plan to sell stock for income or use the dividend? If you planned to sell stock you shouldn't have bought mreits in the first place. If you wanted the dividend income, I submit that you still have it.
    19 Aug 2013, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • Dividends#1
    , contributor
    Comments (1901) | Send Message
     
    murray555,

     

    Wonderfully said. Well stated. Simple. Thanks for some common sense!

     

    I am in AGNC 100% for the dividend yield!!! Still reinvesting.

     

    And eventually for the INCOME! Will still reinvest some of the income but collect the majority next year.
    19 Aug 2013, 08:35 PM Reply Like
  • bagleytravis68
    , contributor
    Comments (66) | Send Message
     
    I bought them based completely on their dividend and was not all that concerned with the principle. My only issue is that with such a massive decline in share price it will be a very long time before any money is actually made here. The dividend won't make up for share price for a long time. Like you said, I do still have the income and I will continue to reinvest them at these lows. My only fear is if the dividend can't be sustained at these levels. Many articles are conflicting on what should/will happen to yields in a rising rate environment.
    20 Aug 2013, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • bagleytravis68
    , contributor
    Comments (66) | Send Message
     
    Dividends#1,

     

    Took a quick peek at your profile. You have a lot more guts than me to have everything in three stocks. Are you not concerned that with REIT divvy volatility your retirement portfolio is not necessarily safe? With everything in three stocks a cut in yield here and there makes a massive difference.

     

    Just curious, glad it seems to be working for you.
    20 Aug 2013, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • Dividends#1
    , contributor
    Comments (1901) | Send Message
     
    bagleytravis68,

     

    As I stated in my profile, I am now receiving 70-75% in excess of our needed income to live on. After reinvesting the dividends for 3 more quarters, I should be receiving in excess of 85-90% of our projected needed income. So, at 70% in excess a 40% overall dividend reduction would still leave us enough income.

     

    Example, if our needed income is 50K and my dividend income is 85K (70% excess) a 40% dividend reduction would still leave us 51K in DIVIDEND INCOME. At an 85% excess, then the dividend income will be $92,500 a 45% dividend reduction will still leave us $50,875 in DIVIDEND INCOME!

     

    ***** So, my portfolio can withstand a 40-45% dividend reduction and we will still be able to live off the dividends and not touch the principle.

     

    Of course I do not see such a large reduction in dividends. However, I am prepared for a very bad scenario.

     

    I expect MO will be RAISING their dividend this Friday 8/23/13 from .44 cents to .47-.48 cents. MO is a dividend machine. If you do not already own MO, it is the best of the best DG stocks.

     

    KMR/KMP consistently RAISES their dividends. Read my comments on KMR. Phillip Trinder is the KMR and MLP master here at SA in my opinion.

     

    AGNC is the risky volatile position that will reduce their dividend depending on the environment. Read Scott Kennedy's articles on AGNC, he has taught me almost everything I know about AGNC.

     

    Reit Analyst and CorvetteKid and a few others have a lot of good info on AGNC also.

     

    I expect AGNC to do well as the years pass. Keep updated regularly. I keep reading about AGNC and follow Scott closely.

     

    You are young, read David Vann Knapp and chowder, Dave Crossetti and the other DGI if you haven't already.

     

    Good luck to you.

     

    PS. I do not recommend you trade, only a very few have what it takes, emotionally and skill wise to be successful. Buy great companies and reinvest the dividends. You are young and have lots of time to compound.
    20 Aug 2013, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • bagleytravis68
    , contributor
    Comments (66) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the info.
    20 Aug 2013, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • Dividends#1
    , contributor
    Comments (1901) | Send Message
     
    bagleytravis68,

     

    What are your thoughts on my portfolio? And my strategy?
    20 Aug 2013, 07:21 PM Reply Like
  • bagleytravis68
    , contributor
    Comments (66) | Send Message
     
    I find it incredibly interesting and am very glad it is working for you. I am rather partial to high yielders and my strategy is much like yours. I plan to hold several high yielding stocks for many years regardless of the price in order to reap the benefits of compounding. I think it is a very sound strategy and once you have enough shares you can easily ride the REIT divvy wave without having to change your life style. Personally, I am going to do what you are doing now. Hold many volatile stocks and reinvest the dividends to amass shares. I think in the future I would feel more safe diversifying a bit. I am not sure if I could sleep well at night with my whole nest egg in three stocks. I realize it is unlikely any one of them would never recover from a massive loss, but it has happened before and probably will again. I don't think a portfolio needs to be all that diversified, but I think in several years I will try to have a few stocks in different sectors with some of them in very safe dividend stocks and the others in high yielding mREITs eREITS and so on.
    21 Aug 2013, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • Dividends#1
    , contributor
    Comments (1901) | Send Message
     
    bagleytravis68,

     

    Thanks for your feedback. You seem to have a plan. Stick to your plan and you will see your shares growing.

     

    You should always have cash available or coming in so you can buy when your stocks sell off. Remember what Buffett said, he likes to buy when others are fearful, he likes to buy when his stocks are on sale.

     

    Buffett said when he takes a position he hopes the stock goes down so he can buy more cheap.

     

    Unfortunately, for me I have zero earned income now. I might have to start a new business, I like to buy more shares when my stock sells off.

     

    Good luck and keep me informed on how you are doing.

     

    May I ask what stocks do you own?
    21 Aug 2013, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • bagleytravis68
    , contributor
    Comments (66) | Send Message
     
    AGNC, ARR, MSFT, CSCO, GE, INTC, KO and a few more that I have very small positions in. Currently I am going to load up on more AGNC or perhaps initiate a position in O. I like O because it seems to be a more steady giant than many of the other high yielding reits. Also, love the monthly payout.
    22 Aug 2013, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • Dividends#1
    , contributor
    Comments (1901) | Send Message
     
    bagleytravis,

     

    Those are Good dividend stocks.

     

    The only one I do not like is ARR. I do not know too much about them. So I guess they could recover, however I do not think they have nearly as good a management team as AGNC. Hopefully ARR will not keep cutting their dividend too much.

     

    I hope you are reading Scott Kennedy's articles on AGNC. See you on his article's thread. There is a good chance AGNC will reduce their dividend in the short term, however they should raise it after several more quarters. Scott will be writing another article on AGNC's dividend sustainability in the next couple of weeks. Look for it.

     

    Keep reinvesting your dividends in all your stocks and keep me updated on your progress. Stay in touch.

     

    Just a suggestion, look into MO and KMR. Kinder Morgan is an excellent stock. Read Phillip Trinder's articles on KMR/KMP. We prefer KMR.

     

    MO is a dividend machine, The best dividend growth stock over the last century. They should raise their dividend tomorrow.

     

    Be well.
    22 Aug 2013, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • Cavalaw
    , contributor
    Comments (123) | Send Message
     
    Yes riding the roller coaster and collecting the payouts is the best alternative. Besides, emotional stupidity goes both ways .. the pendulum will swing back ....although it will take some time .....it will pay off to be patient
    19 Aug 2013, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • murray555
    , contributor
    Comments (198) | Send Message
     
    And while you wait you still collect above average dividends. The problem most investors have is they are short sighted. Over reacting at every blip on the radar. It is the people who stay calm that are successful.
    19 Aug 2013, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • johnbbbb
    , contributor
    Comments (24) | Send Message
     
    These reits are way oversold. Panic selling by the weak. These will turn around in the fall.
    19 Aug 2013, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • jroliver77
    , contributor
    Comments (74) | Send Message
     
    Yes exactly, I have been trying to be bit ahead of the curve though and see some income assets are being sold off in bulk but in reality will be set up fairly well in rising rate environment. Managed debt global bonds emerging debt high yield short duration convertibles bank loans still selling although perfect for improving economy rising interest rate enviroment, long/short credit funds still like pipelines some bdcs and Private equity/Investment stocks.

     

    Again on your first point our economy can not sustain this quick burst in rates, Treasuries wont back to peaks but have to at least get some stability above these levels.
    19 Aug 2013, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • Mpac1
    , contributor
    Comments (77) | Send Message
     
    If you look at the volume, it's not that high. AGNC has over 14 mil shares traded, MTGE has a little over a million and a half, yet they're both down over 6%.

     

    I'm not sure I understand the disparity.
    19 Aug 2013, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • AU1981
    , contributor
    Comments (55) | Send Message
     
    Not sure if the sell off is unjustified. If you are concerned about loss of principal, getting out when the 10-yr yield spikes 2% in one day makes sense. The issue is whether this sector will recover as rates stabilize around the historical 3-4% range, or becomes so damaged to the point of not recovering in terms of BV for decades. There are a few financial veterans out there on SA who think the situation is analogous to prior interest rate cycles.

     

    Also, I don't know if we can safely bet that we will have another debt ceiling hostage crisis, since this was not a politically popular approach.
    19 Aug 2013, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • Darren McCammon
    , contributor
    Comments (722) | Send Message
     
    Just have to bitch somewhere. My NLY $11 Aug puts just expired Friday. I hate friggin options!!!
    19 Aug 2013, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • joabe17
    , contributor
    Comments (141) | Send Message
     
    My experience with options has been the stock does what I wanted in the weeks immediately following expiration.
    19 Aug 2013, 10:35 PM Reply Like
  • AU1981
    , contributor
    Comments (55) | Send Message
     
    Sorry to hear that Darren. I made a similar mistake not going for longer term puts when AGNC dipped below $23.00...
    19 Aug 2013, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12434) | Send Message
     
    Hold off on buying until the 10-year hits the magic 3%, which will likely happen any day, now. That should trigger the final capitulatory wave, driving prices into a momentary free fall on highs volumes.

     

    That's when you scoop them up.

     

    P.S. Better than buying MREITs, which have reasons for being down, if not quite this far down, buy BDC's, equity and heathcare REITs and convertible and floating-rate bonds funds and preferreds, which have been decimated in the hysteria without cause.
    19 Aug 2013, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • expatsp
    , contributor
    Comments (199) | Send Message
     
    Hi Tack,
    Do you have any favorites among the BDCs and/or the closed end funds that buy convertibles, floating rates, and preferreds?
    19 Aug 2013, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2415) | Send Message
     
    Tack: How do you arrive at 3%?

     

    Are you saying that 3% is likely to be the top yield for the ten year year?

     

    My opinion is known to you. I expect the ten year to rise to a normalized level of 4% to 4.25% within 12 to 18 months, more likely sooner than 12 months than later than 18 months. My opinion is based on historic pricing of the ten year for the past 50 years when the market set yields uninfluenced by the Federal Reserve's intervention in the market.

     

    As of today's closing prices, the current average annual inflation expectations built into the 10 year TIP price is 2.13%. There is nothing remotely normal about a non-inflation protected treasury yielding 3% when the market anticipates an average inflation rate of 2.13%. The normalized interest rate would be at least 2% over that anticipated inflation rate. The normalized rate is one determined by a free market without Federal Reserve intervention through QE.

     

    I noted in my last blog a statement on this subject made by JPM's chief global strategist that ten year treasury yields have averaged "2.6% higher than than the year-over-year core CPI inflation" over the past 50 years. BLS last reported that core CPI increased 1.7% through July 2013 which would produce a normalized ten year rate of 4.3%.

     

    The process of interest rate normalization is not going to stop at 3%. The carnage is going to continue, with brief respites, for another 12 to 18 months as the FED first tapers and then ends QE for good. Some income securities will hit bottom before others.

     

    As noted in my last blog, I have postponed nibbling in bond CEFs until the ten year reaches 3.25% and then I will take another look.

     

    http://bit.ly/18GoIso

     

    It is possible that some of the discounts will go over 20% when the panic really hits stride.

     

    19 Aug 2013, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12434) | Send Message
     
    ex:

     

    Some worth a look:
    PSEC
    TICC
    FSC
    BKCC
    NGPC

     

    SDIV
    JPS

     

    NCV
    AGC
    CHI

     

    PFL
    PHD
    VVR
    JRO

     

    OHI
    MPW
    19 Aug 2013, 08:05 PM Reply Like
  • expatsp
    , contributor
    Comments (199) | Send Message
     
    Thanks!
    19 Aug 2013, 08:08 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12434) | Send Message
     
    south:

     

    I agree with almost everything you say.

     

    My point is that the rate of adjustment is out of line with current conditions, regardless of long-term norms. I suspect you may correct that we'll we a bounce from a short-term oversold condition, then a resumption of rate increases. However, this scenario is necessarily dependent on some moderation in the rise; otherwise, we're going to see economic stagnation, a decline in the "wealth effect" and a possible new recession.

     

    Notwithstanding, there are various issues that have suffered brutal selling, which have no business being sold down even faster than rates are increasing. I'd put BDC's at the top of this list because typically 90% of their lending is on floating rates, and they have used recent history to load up on equity and long-term debt, so they're not particularly vulnerable to moves in short-term rates. If anything, their profit margins should expand.

     

    I see the selling in floating-rate and convertible-bond funds as overdone, as well, but, of course, it could get worse in the near term.

     

    if we do we a short-term capitulation and a bounce, i don't think any later subsequent resumption of rates rises will be accompanied by the level of fear and knee-jerk selling we're seeing in these early stages.

     

    Just my $0.02.
    19 Aug 2013, 08:14 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2415) | Send Message
     
    Tack: On average, how high would the 3 month LIBOR have to rise before triggering an increase in a BDC's rate to its average borrower?

     

    The problem with the current rate increase scenario is that short term rates are likely to remained anchored near zero due to a continuation of ZIRP well into 2015. The 1 year treasury note has not budged from .11%-.15% since 5/2/13 while the ten year treasury has gone up more than 70% in yield.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/ZV7BAT

     

    The difference is due simply to a realization that QE will end before ZIRP. ZIRP will continue to control the short end, possibly into 2016, but the market has already started to adjust the yields for intermediate and long maturities to account for the inevitable end of the FED's bond buying binge which has manipulated longer term rates to abnormally low levels.

     

    Over the past few trading days, I have noticed a significant downdraft in equity preferred floaters that pay the greater of minimum coupon, generally between 3% to 4%, or a float above the three month LIBOR rate on a $25 par value: HBAPRF, HBAPRG, SANPRA, METPRA, MSPRA, etc.

     

    The market sees that the Libor float is not going to be triggered for a couple of years or longer based on the continuation of ZIRP and the minimum coupon will consequently be the applicable rate until the 3 month Libor rises significantly from current levels. Consequently, with the rise in intermediate and long term rates based on the market finally realizing that QE will end, the market is significantly adjusting the price of those securities down to increase their current yield. I view that as short term thinking, but it is what it is.

     

    Fear of losing money in bonds is just now gaining momentum.

     

    The entire intermediate and long term bond complex is resetting toward higher rates, keying off their normal spreads to comparable maturity treasuries.

     

    While there is no way now to know for certain, I would expect a large number of bond CEFs, a barometer of individual investor panic selling, to hit greater than 20% discounts to their net asset value. This will not be as large as the 30%+ discounts hit back in October 2008 based on credit risk rather than interest rate risk concerns. We have already seen the discounts in many cases expand into the low double digits, more than twice the average 1, 3 and 5 discounts.

     

    I would not expect the selling to subside until rates move closer to their normalized level.

     

    It is not material to my views whether the FED starts to taper in September or November, or ends QE in the second or third quarter of 2014. QE will soon end, and that is what it is important now.

     

    Fortunately, the ten year is almost half way to a normalized yield of 4.25%, having starting the normalization process on 5/2 at a 1.66% yield. But there will be significant additional losses from another 1.4% or so rise. A bond fund with a duration of 10 years will lose about 14% from a 1.4% rise in rates.

     

    FINRA on Duration:
    http://bit.ly/15yDEeq

     

    I have less faith in investor's calming down anytime soon. While there will be brief rallies and respites from the selling the trend will in my opinion continue down.

     

    I am not selling any of my BDC positions in response to what is happening now. I do not view a 4% ten year treasury, even when that finally comes about, as competitive with PSEC's 12+% current yield

     

    I did sell last week one of my CEF's that invest in REITs and will use the proceeds to buy individual REITs later this year.

     

    I do not see bond CEFs stabilizing anytime soon, so I have quit my nibbling in that sector.

     

    I have noticed that mortgage REIT preferred stocks have been getting crushed based on a combination of credit and interest rate risk concerns. But recently issued equity preferred stocks from banks have also entered air pockets, though not as severe. I may nibble on one or two bank preferred stocks when the current yield crosses 8%.

     

    19 Aug 2013, 09:07 PM Reply Like
  • appledeadmoney
    , contributor
    Comments (38) | Send Message
     
    Tack,

     

    I could not agree more with your strategy... The 3% level on the 10 year would appear to be a psychological level signaling a final crescendo on the panic....

     

    The REITS, utilities, preferreds and everything income related has been shellacked.... The real question becomes how long these plays will work -- will they be trades or longer term investments? If and when the treasury spurs higher it will continue to cut into these income sensitive plays....
    19 Aug 2013, 11:02 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12434) | Send Message
     
    south:

     

    Bonds will remain in trouble for an extended period. Having seen this game before, I'd expect exactly what we've been seeing. At first, various bonds and bond funds start fading, including fixed-rate issues; then, it spreads to any and all yield-oriented issues, but funds rotate to "growth" issues and, most ironically, gold, energy issues and commodities for a brief period; then, if the rates don't stabilize, the panic goes market wide, and people sell everything, regardless of whether it makes the slightest sense. We haven't hit the last phase yet, but when we do, it will provide lots of good buying opportunities on issues that have sold off for no cause.

     

    The secret for buyers is to know what will really be hurt by rates and what won't, regardless of the short-term panic, and buy the latter issues, whose subsequent earnings reports will confirm their misclassification.
    20 Aug 2013, 12:19 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12434) | Send Message
     
    The next round of earnings reports will separate those issues actually impaired by rate increases from those that have been mistakenly labelled so.
    20 Aug 2013, 12:21 AM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1640) | Send Message
     
    " I expect the ten year to rise to a normalized level of 4% to 4.25% within 12 to 18 months, more likely sooner than 12 months"

     

    South:

     

    I have listed charts on several occassions showing weakness in our economy. My opinion against the ten year rising to 4% within twelve months is this would damage an already weak recovery. Of course, the economy could show much improvment in the next twelve months which could justify a 4% yield on the ten year. I don't see that growth at this point in time.
    20 Aug 2013, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2415) | Send Message
     
    extreme:

     

    My analysis is based on how investors have priced treasury securities over the past fifty years in the absence of QE.

     

    The most important items influencing those pricing decisions are inflation, inflation expectations and confidence in the inflation forecast.

     

    In addition, an investor will want some kind of return for a ten year bond over and above the inflation rate. Historically, that spread is at least 2%. A .5% spread would just be off the charts abnormal.

     

    I noted above that the JPM chief strategist stated that investors have demanded an average 2.7% over the annualized core CPI number:

     

    http://on.barrons.com/...

     

    The question is what will be the ten year treasury yield when investors are making decisions about rates after the FED ceases its bond buying binges.

     

    I anticipate that the market will continue to front run the FED's tapering and will take rates to normal levels, given the current inflation expectations, before the FED winds down QE. The 10 year yield has already risen over 70% before the FED has started to taper.

     

    I disagree you with you about how the economy will fare with 4% to 4.25% ten year rates. After a period of adjustment, and once everyone recognizes that the days of abnormally low rates are kaput, the positive ramifications of higher rates will be seen. Historically, the economy has done just fine with the ten year between 4% to 7.5%. That rate hovered between 5% to 7.5% during the 1991-1999 period for example. A 4% ten year rate is benign for stocks and the economy.

     

    There is close to $9 trillion sitting in money market funds, savings accounts and CDs earning almost nothing now. Once rates normalize throughout the maturity spectrum, and 4% becomes an average again for "risk free" savings, we are talking about another $350-$400 billion per year in income. If you run those kind of numbers through an econometric model, the impact would be very positive for GDP and job growth.

     

    This kind of analysis has already been done. I have referred to the study summarized in the Big Picture blog:

     

    http://bit.ly/YF81Ij

     

    Most of the possible positive impacts from QE have already been realized with the massive wave of private homeowner mortgage and corporate bond refinancings.

     

    The DSR and FOR ratios are already at 1980 levels, as households in the aggregate have more disposable income to spend or to invest due to lower debt service costs of their primary debt obligation. If those households start to earn a 4% return on their risk free savings, then that additional after tax income will flow directly into disposable income, increasing that number even more.

     

    We are at the cusp of a long term economic recovery driven by consumer spending, fueled by increases in disposable income rather than by debt. The Fed's abnormal policies are doing more harm than good now by restraining those increases in disposable income through earnings on savings.

     

    The SF FED recently issued a paper that QE was not adding much to growth.

     

    http://bit.ly/1650E1R
    20 Aug 2013, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1640) | Send Message
     
    South:

     

    I certainly hope you are correct. Rates normalize to 4% or higher within the next twelve months. I don't believe it will happen for a number of reasons but we have already discussed those reasons in several posts. A 4% rate would mean the economy is doing better. However, one point you make may not happen. Short rates are usually determined by the FED. Most bank deposits are short term in nature and may not rise as fast as the ten year. This will still be a drain to the consumer especially senior citizens.

     

    I guess we will have to wait and see. You and I are on record. You believe the ten year will be above 4% by Sept. 1st, 2014 and I don't. I will be more than happy to purchase a favorite brew of your selection if you are correct!

     

    Best Wishes!
    20 Aug 2013, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2415) | Send Message
     
    Extreme: I don't think that the economy has to be doing better for the ten year to hit 4%. Only two prerequisites must exist: (1) the FED ends QE during my time frame and (2) inflation expectations remain at 2% to 2.25%.

     

    If inflation expectations increase .25% to 2.5%, as reflected in the break-even spread of the ten year TIP, then I would raise my range to 4.25% to 4.5%.

     

    It is also my view that the FED can not continue QE for more than another year without being justly accused of monetizing the debt.

     

    I have made the point that ZIRP will control short term rates and is likely to continue well into 2015. And, once the FED starts its tightening cycle, the federal funds rate will likely be raised at a slower rate than the 2004-2006 cycle, when the federal funds rate went from 1% to 5.25%. That is bad for savers but good for banks. My regional bank basket has already had stellar returns this year.

     

    Last Updated Table on Regional Bank Basket:
    http://bit.ly/12CKizc

     

    (see, e.g. my comment above 8/19 at 9:07 P.M. on short term rates)

     

    So, I do not expect savings account and CD rates to hit 4% before 2017-2018, unless inflation accelerates toward 3%, causing the FED to raise the federal funds rate sooner and/or faster than currently expected by the market. Personally, I believe that everything would be better with a 2% federal funds rate right now provided everyone could get over their mental issues about the "benefits" today of zero percent short term rates.

     

    I think that NPBC is approaching the issue correctly and you may be interested in reading what how their management is dealing with the potential rise in interest rates:

     

    SA Transcript:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    20 Aug 2013, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1640) | Send Message
     
    South:

     

    Higher rates are better for banks as long as they are positively gapped. Most banks are not but we are so I would welcome higher rates.
    The spread for NPBC is weak by our standards since we have NIM of 4.3%. They must be doing a lot with non interest income to obtain a ROA greater than 1%. The earnings call does not give a lot of details about NIE or NII. Their earnings are excellent so they must be doing a good job with NIE or NII.

     

    I guess my argument is I don't see inflation expectations at current levels with rising rates. IMHO, rising rates will slow the economy and inflation expectations. We are already seeing resistance to higher loan rates.
    20 Aug 2013, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2415) | Send Message
     
    Extreme: I own a few banks with NIM over 4%. Your 4.3% is high. The average is around 3.21% now.

     

    http://bit.ly/WbVzih

     

    NPBC reported a 3.53% NIM for the Q/E 6/30/13. I am expecting a gradual rise in NIM.

     

    The return on tangible equity was reported at 11.53%; the efficiency ratio was 57.43%; the ROA was at 1.21%; and the capital ratios are good.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/18InBIH

     

    I also just added to BDGE, discussed in my last post. Usually, I do not see a bank spell out its Operating Expense as a Percentage of Average Assets but that bank listed that number at 2.26% which is pretty good? They have doubled the number of branches on Long Island since 2005.

     

    NPL Ratio: .39%
    NPA Ratio: .22%
    Coverage Ratio: 429.22%

     

    http://1.usa.gov/18InAV4
    20 Aug 2013, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1640) | Send Message
     
    South:

     

    Both banks show good numbers. Some banks make the bulk of their income the old fashion way. On interest spread. Big banks and smaller banks with strong growth rates use spread to offset non interest expense and try to grow earnings through additional fee income. Sales of insurance, brokerage services and money management are just some ways they use to generate fee income. I am old school and focus on spread.

     

    For us 4.30 NIM minus .15 LLR minus 2.75 NIE plus .50 NII = 1.90 before taxes. 1.90 X .66 = 1.25 after tax ROA. This is what we shoot for. We don't do much with fee income other than service charges on deposits and a few miscellaneous items such as lock box fees and sale of checks.

     

    This low interest rate environment is not the situation where I want to lock in a lot of low yielding assets. The repricing opportunities of assets and liabilities are critical in this environment. Some banks that are doing good right now may suffer when rates rise.
    21 Aug 2013, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1640) | Send Message
     
    South:

     

    Do you use UBPR as provided by FFIEC? If not, you would find it very handy for looking at banks.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/1areYWU
    21 Aug 2013, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • James Myung
    , contributor
    Comments (221) | Send Message
     
    Tack/South and all other commentors,

     

    I appreciate your thoughts and wisdom. They are clear and very reasonable of current market condition. I would have to make a reasonable move shortly today. When the market bleeds in a near term, I might dance in joy! Thanks.
    21 Aug 2013, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • astarr66
    , contributor
    Comments (180) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Tack! Much appreciated. You mentioned you also like Chemical companies, but i see none on your list.....

     

    Regards
    21 Aug 2013, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12434) | Send Message
     
    ast:

     

    On further reflection almost all the chemical companies I follow are presently priced rather richly. The one exception is (POT), which I think is worth some thought.
    21 Aug 2013, 09:45 PM Reply Like
  • Desmodos
    , contributor
    Comments (54) | Send Message
     
    I can understand wanting to find bottom if you are just initiating a position, but if you have long positions purchased at higher prices, does it really matter?

     

    I bought NLY at $15 so I've got significant losses, but if we believe current prices are too low, then the expectation is it will eventually rise above current levels (unless you expect bankruptcy). Even if NLY fell further from here, we still expect it to return above $11? Buying in here, lowers my average share price regardless.

     

    I've been expanding my positions in NLY with very small increments and will continue to do so until we find bottom. Setting aside a little cash to expand my position significantly on the way up. Seems like the long way to play this out.
    19 Aug 2013, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12434) | Send Message
     
    The danger with common shares, no matter the apparent yield, and especially MREITs in this environment, is that the dividends can be cut, as margins get rate squeezed. Then, suddenly what looked like an undervalued play with a fat yield and upside becomes another ordinary fairly-priced issue.

     

    The better idea, when we get in manic periods, like this, is to keep a close eye on preferred issues, which, because of their low trading volumes, may see precipitous declines, completely undeserved. And, unlike the common, the preferred yields cannot be cut, and they absolutely will get paid, so the value equation is a lot easier to calculate.

     

    As for common issues, better to look for BDC's or healthcare REITs, neither of which will be much impacted by higher rates. In fact, most BDC's will see profits enhanced, as they lend almost exclusively on a floating-rate basis.
    19 Aug 2013, 05:23 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4076) | Send Message
     
    (OHI) - one of my fav's --@ 6.7% now and if hysteria ensues we can pick this one up at 7+% yield.
    19 Aug 2013, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12434) | Send Message
     
    Ditto. We're "twins."

     

    MPW, too
    19 Aug 2013, 08:15 PM Reply Like
  • Desmodos
    , contributor
    Comments (54) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the tip on watching preferreds.

     

    I'm also in healthcare REITs, all of which are also taking a pounding this week.
    19 Aug 2013, 10:47 PM Reply Like
  • Kathy l
    , contributor
    Comments (142) | Send Message
     
    Tack, this is a learning question, (my hubby and myself) if you could
    explain how to purchase preferred issues. (Stocks and or bonds)
    ( Also, I have GOV , which is a triple net reit. From what I have read,
    it should not go the way of m reits.) Thank you ahead of time.
    20 Aug 2013, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12434) | Send Message
     
    On plane. Brief answer is that preferred shares are listed and purchased just like common shares. No mystery.
    20 Aug 2013, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2415) | Send Message
     
    Kathy: Unfortunately, there is no uniform method to enter preferred stock symbols.

     

    If I want to buy the Santander common stock at any brokerage firm, I would use the symbol "SAN" at all of them.

     

    I would have to use different methods to buy the Santander series "B" preferred stock SANPRB however.

     

    At Fidelity, I would enter SANPRB.

     

    At TD Ameritrade, I would need to enter SAN-B.

     

    At Schwab, I would enter SAN/PB.

     

    At Vanguard, I have to type SAN_PB

     

    To bring up the symbol at Yahoo Finance, I would need to type SAN-PB.
    http://yhoo.it/13E6mKj

     

    At Marketwatch, I would need to type SAN.PB
    http://on.mktw.net/13E...

     

    If you use a different broker, I would suggest typing in Santander in the symbol lookup and that should display a list of the common shares and a number of preferred stocks with the symbols used by the broker. Once you know how to enter one of the symbols, the same method should apply to all equity preferred stocks.

     

    Once you have the correct symbol for entry in the order box, it would be like buying a common stock.

     

    I have owned GOV in the past but sold my last lot at $26.

     

    2. Sold 50 GOV at $26 (3/5/2013 Post)
    http://bit.ly/13E6olw

     

    I would likely buy back at less than $22 which is where I bought my last lot.

     

    Government Properties Trust is an equity REIT that owns commercial real estate leased to governments. It is not an MREIT that owns paper.

     

    Link to properties owned by this REIT:

     

    http://bit.ly/13E6olA

     

    There are a number of exchange trade bonds that can be bought like stocks.

     

    I explain the various categories in this Post:

     

    Exchange Traded Bonds
    http://bit.ly/SW41BQ

     

    I would recommend that you start by going to the quantumonline website which is free. Registration is required before use. That site has a comprehensive listing of equity preferred stocks and exchange traded bonds, with links to prospectuses and a decent explanation of the material terms such as coupon, maturity, call dates, etc.

     

    http://bit.ly/T5zbpY
    20 Aug 2013, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • Kathy l
    , contributor
    Comments (142) | Send Message
     
    Thank you for the quick response and valuable info. K
    20 Aug 2013, 07:47 PM Reply Like
  • Scooter-Pop
    , contributor
    Comments (1915) | Send Message
     
    Tennessee'n,

     

    Your prediction/speculation for the percentage correction currently routing the Averages?
    21 Aug 2013, 07:27 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12434) | Send Message
     
    south:

     

    Thanks for providing all that detail that I could not attempt from my smartphone keyboard.
    21 Aug 2013, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2415) | Send Message
     
    Scooter: What is the question?

     

    In Saturday's post, I mentioned 1538 on the S & P 500 as a potential downside target price, which would be a 10% correction from the recent high:

     

    http://bit.ly/18GoIso

     

    Any future prediction is speculation to varying degrees. I could predict that the Sun will go supernova tomorrow at 10:07 A.M. C.S.T. and that would hopefully be an outlandish prediction with an extraordinary low probability.

     

    My predictions about the future course of interest rates and the continued carnage in bond CEFs would have a much higher probability factor assigned to them. I would assign a 60% to 80% probability to my prediction that the ten year yield with exceed 4% within 18 months.

     

    I recognize that this may be erroneous, so I will play other scenarios when managing my portfolio now. One alternate scenario is that the ten year is currently at fair value, a position advanced by Janney Montgomery Scott.

     

    http://on.barrons.com/...

     

    I view their argument as unconvincing and would assign a low probability to it being correct, less than 10%. Nonetheless, I would play that type of scenario with small amounts by continuing to own some long term investment grade bonds and by adding a few periodically as their prices dip due to the rise in rates. I recently added three 50 share lots of exchange traded first mortgage bonds rated "A" or better with long maturities.

     

    I have a greater probability assigned to my bond correction scenario than my stock correction one.

     

    I would note that the market needs to correct, just to let some air out of the balloon before it pops. I can only say with 100% certainty that I would have continued paring my stock allocation if the S & P 500 had continued rising toward 1800 this month and into September. The market has gone up too much, too fast since October 1, 2011, based on my generally optimistic views about the current worldwide economic outlook.

     

    As to stocks, I am just uncomfortable buying and have difficulty finding anything to buy. When that occurs, I will generally start to lower my stock allocation which I have been doing. I will focus that paring on positions that need to be sold anyway due to underperformance for a stock fund or other reasons for an individual stock position.

     

    I will use part of the proceeds to buy other securities including some small stock positions. In my last post, I mentioned adding to two regional bank positions.

     

    Overall the paring will increase my cash allocation which is not creating much joy given the near zero yields of MM funds.
    21 Aug 2013, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12434) | Send Message
     
    south:

     

    Everybody's panting over rates, which at any of the discussed levels will have little negative impact on the economy, and the effect on markets will be dissipated as soon as Q3 reports demonstrate that fears of revenue and/or profit curtailments are misplaced.

     

    What people should be keeping a much closer eye on is the progress in Europe. If Europe reports a continuing upward trend, then our market and theirs are going to rise, regardless of this academic debate about 3%, 3.5% or 4% U.S. rates. However, if Europe falters, then our interest rates will fall very quickly, as money moves back toward U.S. bonds from abroad.
    21 Aug 2013, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • Lady Di
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
     
    Am long ARR and AGNC..am going to ride this out and just reinvest dividends..may take a couple of years to get back to even but I agree with above comments..market way too emotional right now.
    19 Aug 2013, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • Nova163
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
     
    The dividend yield of O is back on the level it was on in february 2010. The 10-year treasury rate was 3,80%+ back then, that leaves a full percentage point of interest rate rises priced in. Looks like a decent margin of safety to me!
    19 Aug 2013, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • American in Paris
    , contributor
    Comments (5504) | Send Message
     
    Gentlemen,

     

    These are not standard companies producing a good or service. They are just managed portfolios of mortgages. These Reits are falling because their net asset values decline as interest rates rise. We are in the middle of an interest rate cycle, not the end. QE tapering, let alone higher fed funds rates, hasn't even started. It would be triumph of blind greed to buy now.

     

    And my guess is that you cannot buy now and effectively hedge using options. Option prices will be too high since they have tapering built into them. Implied volatility is probably stratospheric right now.

     

    You could possibly buy these mortgage REITs and short Treasuries (TLT). That might work as a hedge Just be aware that shorting TLT would oblige you to pay the monthly dividends on the shares you borrowed.

     

    The time to buy is when Treasury rates return to 2007 level. The stocks are the present discounted value of their mortgage cash flows. Interest rates rise, the stocks fall.
    19 Aug 2013, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • winnail
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    how about i just buy TLT puts to hedge?
    20 Aug 2013, 05:15 AM Reply Like
  • jweissman
    , contributor
    Comments (517) | Send Message
     
    There is no bottom I see. Peep trying to "play" a jump will be, as I think they have been, jumping out when they feel how hot the kitchen is. New lows pinging like a pinball game.
    19 Aug 2013, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • Yorkville Trading
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    3% 10yr should hopefully kick off a short cover rally which can act as the starting point to reset shorts for the ride to 4%. I'm sure the Fed or Hilsenrath will opine something to give us sometype of rally in the short term as well.
    19 Aug 2013, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • financeminister
    , contributor
    Comments (572) | Send Message
     
    4% of my portfolio is in Dynex Capital (http://bit.ly/11n8kIk) - which I thought was the safest bet amongst all the mREITs as it was a hybrid. Its 18% down. Okay, was wrong about the "safest" part" but it's fine as other stocks compensate and life goes on. I added DX to give a yield bump to my overall DGI portfolio. I don't have to sell it or feel like selling it but the question I have considering the original intention of buying the stock is, is the dividend sustainable or do I run the risk of seeing a dividend cut. What factors affect the company from sustaining the current dividend?
    19 Aug 2013, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • SaltyDog62
    , contributor
    Comments (681) | Send Message
     
    finance,

     

    DX has not cut div since the 90's. I must say tho I am expecting an increase to .30 per share this year, but who knows. Personally I am staying with it and will add shares at this level and even lower.

     

    Good luck
    20 Aug 2013, 06:10 AM Reply Like
  • Phattboy43
    , contributor
    Comments (109) | Send Message
     
    I've heard all this before somewhere..wait!!!....... sold 29k shares of ARR at 6.01. At the time everyone was saying the EXACT same things as above. I took a loss of $30,000 on ARR. I still own MTGE and AGNC, although a smaller chunk. Will probably unload these tomorrow. Bottom line, people were saying "oh when there's blood on the streets" and "way oversold" and "unfairly beaten down".... They were saying these things about AGNC at 30....then 28...then 25....then 22....now 20.5. PLEASE!!!

     

    I was a big believer in mREITS for a long time, until I wasn't. These are equivalent to highly highly leveraged bond funds, many with no history of performance in environments like we have today. Some do have a history, like NLY. I'm staying away from the entire sector until interest rates have stabilized and the fed finally decides what to do.
    19 Aug 2013, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • RWMostow
    , contributor
    Comments (1300) | Send Message
     
    Phatt-

     

    It might be a long unpleasant wait. Even a year will feel long with every day being as miserable (or more miserable) as the previous.

     

    JMO.

     

    -rwm
    19 Aug 2013, 07:18 PM Reply Like
  • darekz
    , contributor
    Comments (63) | Send Message
     
    It begs to quote Dan Norcini - “Top pickers and bottom pickers eventually become cotton pickers”.
    19 Aug 2013, 07:58 PM Reply Like
  • Tradevestor
    , contributor
    Comments (4013) | Send Message
     
    Two steps:

     

    1) Ask yourself why you bought the MReit or Equity REIT
    2) If that reason no longer holds good, sell it.

     

    Mine:

     

    1) I bought O for its reliable dividend history (Although the future could be different)
    2) Does that reason hold good ? Sure does. Received nice dividends last week. No sign/news of a cut or even the lack of an increase. So holding it.
    19 Aug 2013, 07:58 PM Reply Like
  • Economic Analyst
    , contributor
    Comments (2310) | Send Message
     
    This is a good time to consider some incremental reallocation.

     

    http://on.mktw.net/1bN...
    19 Aug 2013, 09:03 PM Reply Like
  • siberiavol
    , contributor
    Comments (9) | Send Message
     
    I am buying the preferreds. I have taken the plunge twice in the last few years when there was a lot of distress.Once with the banks and a later with the hotel group in things like HTpA and AHTpD. Both of those moves worked out. I am in neither group now.

     

    I started buying a few days ago and continue to add but the last two days have been very tough. I didn't expect the last 5-8 % down with the ten year still under 3%. I think all are oversold but you might look at ARR A and B as a beginning point. I am in several and expect to be a scale in buyer.

     

    The thing that scares me the most short term is the group appears to be entering a period where the losses are so large for many holders that their decision to sell isn't really going to be made based on fundamentals. They want out and a person like myself who bargin hunts can be down a quick 15-20%. In this case I think it is worth the risk because they are very difficult to buy if sentiment changes.
    19 Aug 2013, 10:37 PM Reply Like
  • cdelaware
    , contributor
    Comments (41) | Send Message
     
    Look at NNN.PD now paying 7.26+% about 7.35% counting the 6+ weeks to its next xdividend. I have been buying on its way down (unfortunately) but this price makes no sense
    19 Aug 2013, 10:56 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12434) | Send Message
     
    sib:

     

    Your last paragraph is why patience is dictated with a finger close by the buy button. When we're till building to a selling climax, don't get prematurely itchy, even if the values appear juicy; instead, wait for a big intraday straight-down drop in prices of issues you like, accompanied by large volume spikes. This will signal a capitulatory bottom and may be followed by a rapid spike up, so one has to move fast to grab the best deals at the height of the selling frenzy.
    20 Aug 2013, 12:28 AM Reply Like
  • mikerx83
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    I just checked my charts and NLY hasn't been this low since 2001. the next support I see is around 7.80 to $8. I haven't bought yet and I really do see a panic sell off to around those levels.
    19 Aug 2013, 10:46 PM Reply Like
  • jroliver77
    , contributor
    Comments (74) | Send Message
     
    Consider the diversification and risk aversion with $REM. Based on the next two years of this situation you may be surprised with Mreits. With short term rates holding steady long term rates increasing their spreads are actually increasing book values will take a hit. The mreits that hedged properly will retain bit more book value but nothing to bank on.
    20 Aug 2013, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • nved47
    , contributor
    Comments (14) | Send Message
     
    As a retired investor I appreciate some of the well thought out comments.Would anyone care to comment on the put options on Jan 17,2015 ,vol today 10 K options with 72025 open interest,strike price is $8.00.I'm holding on to my position but this type of option activity is concerning
    19 Aug 2013, 11:24 PM Reply Like
  • Teutonic Knight
    , contributor
    Comments (1987) | Send Message
     
    The stampede is brutal.

     

    You get what you paid for, for whatever ye sowed so shall ye reaped. The people are only follower speculators like their peers, their so-called leaders who they the people saw speculate with gambling interest rates juxtaposition.

     

    It is the old saying, kids follow their parents. The market is now not about investment.
    20 Aug 2013, 12:09 AM Reply Like
  • SaltyDog62
    , contributor
    Comments (681) | Send Message
     
    Plan to add on major dips like this. This is most likely going down further over next 18-24 months and I plan to add on each dip going forward. I now drip all my mreits positions and will do so for another 60 months. Long AGNC MTGE NLY TWO DX CMO EFC AI
    20 Aug 2013, 12:10 AM Reply Like
  • Phattboy43
    , contributor
    Comments (109) | Send Message
     
    darekz, said..... “Top pickers and bottom pickers eventually become cotton pickers”.

     

    well said. Even if you were quoting someone else. I'm amazed at the comments on this forum regarding mREITS. Look at the last 6 months. People have been pounding their fists on the table (and still are above) about how they are "averaging down" and how it's a "great buy at these levels". "I'll collect the fat dividends" Commenters were saying this about ARR at 6 then 5 then 4.50 then 4 now at 3.82. When the dividends get cut AGAIN, these "great buys" will NOT be "great buys at these levels". Rather, it will be good money after bad. I am still (unfortunately) long AGNC and MTGE, but certainly NOT buying anything more in this sector.
    20 Aug 2013, 07:43 AM Reply Like
  • jroliver77
    , contributor
    Comments (74) | Send Message
     
    Phattboy- Exactly you understand there will be and may be value now and I agree with that as well but these assets and holdings will not all of the sudden reverse 20-40% losses, if your buying buy slow and if you wait just be on top of it they will not leave you in the dust when things turn around. Be patient.
    20 Aug 2013, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • Michael Bryant
    , contributor
    Comments (5182) | Send Message
     
    2.89% vs 5-10%............which is the better buy? The market is always irrational.
    21 Aug 2013, 12:48 AM Reply Like
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