Seeking Alpha

Auto sales preview: The outlook looks strong for August and beyond

  • A calendar quirk works in the favor of automobile sales for August as the Labor Day weekend marks the 5th weekend of the month. The timing effect could be enough to lift the annual selling rate to over 16M units, according to forecasts from LMC Automotive and J.D. Power. Kelley Blue Book is a tad more conservative with an estimate of 15.6M.
  • Though an aging U.S. fleet and macroeconomic factors are often cited as the major demand boosts for the industry, analysts think a higher percentage of loans over five years has helped ease pricing.
  • It's not just the U.S. that is showing stronger automobile industry fundamentals. China continues to blaze ahead, while Europe and India are expected to start a slow recovery.
  • Light-duty diesel vehicles and EVs catch their share of headlines, but it's new gas models from Detroit and Tokyo automakers which could spark sales.
  • Related stocks: GM ,F, VLKAY.PK, TM, FIATY.PK, HMC, NSANY.OB, TSLA, DDAIF.PK, HYMLF.PK, BAMXY.PK, KIMTF.PK, VOLVY.PK, DAN, BWA, MTOR, TRW, GT, CTB, FDML, DLPH.
From other sites
Comments (4)
  • Tdot
    , contributor
    Comments (4044) | Send Message
     
    The automakers report sales corrected to the number of sales days in the month, in month to month and year over year comparisons.

     

    So, for example, if August 2013 had three additional sales days than August 2012, then they correct for that aberration by taking the total sales divided by the number of sales days, before calculating the percent changes from month to month and year to year.

     

    The SAAR does the same thing. That way, the numbers reflect the true daily sales volume trends for the month and year, rather than the oddities in the number of sales day per month.
    24 Aug 2013, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • Philip Marlowe
    , contributor
    Comments (1067) | Send Message
     
    My hipster micro cap pick for auto recovery: ISSI. They make automotive memories, so they will benefit both from the auto recovery and the overwhelming trend of having more electronics in new cars.
    24 Aug 2013, 09:39 PM Reply Like
  • Jack Rice
    , contributor
    Comments (903) | Send Message
     
    Good "pick and shovel" idea. Not much volume, though.
    25 Aug 2013, 07:10 AM Reply Like
  • SharkDude
    , contributor
    Comments (640) | Send Message
     
    Incredible. 20 Billion? maybe 25 billion next week. then 50 Billion next month and 200 Billion by the end of the year. He needs to temper this thing if he does not want to see a one day 30 to 50% drop in the stock because at these prices it will hit a wall and drop hard.
    25 Aug 2013, 09:10 PM Reply Like
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)
ETF Tools
Find the right ETFs for your portfolio:
Seeking Alpha's new ETF Hub
ETF Investment Guide:
Table of Contents | One Page Summary
Read about different ETF Asset Classes:
ETF Selector