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SocGen: Brent crude could surge to $150/bbl if Syria conflict spreads

  • Brent crude oil, already at six-month highs of ~$117/bbl, likely will rise towards $125 if the West launches air strikes against Syria and could spike as high as $150 if the conflict spills over into the rest of the Middle East, Societe Generale analysts say.
  • The big worry is Iraq: "The Sunni vs. Shiite conflict in Syria has a direct parallel in Iraq, and the violence in Iraq has reached levels not seen since 2008," SocGen's global head of oil research writes.
  • Don't forget Libya: While the headlines focus on Syria or speculations about the Suez canal or the Strait of Hormuz, the current supply disruption in Libya is as real as in 2011, analysts say.
  • ETFs: USO, UCO, OIL, BNO, DBO, OLO, USL, CRUD, DTO, SCO, SZO, DNO, UOIL, DOIL, UWTI, DWTI.
Comments (14)
  • Brian Bobbitt
    , contributor
    Comments (1874) | Send Message
     
    It had better not. We are awash in oil and actually export more than we import. If we had our pipelines in place as they should have been by now, the middle east would be a non event. This situation needs to be attended to ASAP. Man what non-sense. PLEASE get it straight before I have to run for office and get these pipelines in place and coal and Natgas organized..Would not take long my way. Maybe a year or two. Let the middle east go to war with itself, its all know how to do, make war, teach their kids how to murder, and grow and sell drugs to finance their foolishness.
    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    28 Aug 2013, 07:32 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1020) | Send Message
     
    ...export more than we import
    Last time I read it, we still import 50% of our energy needs
    28 Aug 2013, 08:55 PM Reply Like
  • 272748
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    Buy TESLA!! Solves that problem.
    28 Aug 2013, 07:53 PM Reply Like
  • chopchop0
    , contributor
    Comments (2996) | Send Message
     
    Does Tesla make heavy trucks??
    28 Aug 2013, 08:30 PM Reply Like
  • optionsexpert
    , contributor
    Comments (254) | Send Message
     
    SocGen must be selling their contracts.
    28 Aug 2013, 08:18 PM Reply Like
  • BruceInKY
    , contributor
    Comments (397) | Send Message
     
    It's a good thing Samantha Power is back from vacation and Barry had time to brief Judy Woodrfuff and Gwen Ifill this afternoon. What difference, at this point, does it make what Congress has to say?
    28 Aug 2013, 08:21 PM Reply Like
  • wmateri
    , contributor
    Comments (498) | Send Message
     
    Well if that doesn't get inflation going and cause the Fed to alter their current QE course then nothing will.
    28 Aug 2013, 08:37 PM Reply Like
  • Hendershott
    , contributor
    Comments (1473) | Send Message
     
    How is the Fed going to influence the price of oil or events in the Middle East?
    28 Aug 2013, 08:51 PM Reply Like
  • wmateri
    , contributor
    Comments (498) | Send Message
     
    Sorry, I wasn't clear. I mean that the Fed has promised to keep interest rates low until unemployment gets below 6.5% (or inflation increases too much). People always forget the part in parentheses. If oil kicks inflation up (oil is already up over 20% this year, clearly inflationary to most people) then how can the Fed not reduce its QE program (and, by this, I mean completely cut out the stimulus and also allow interest rates to rise)? How much danger would this spell, first for the stock market and Treasuries, then for the economy as a whole?
    28 Aug 2013, 09:30 PM Reply Like
  • Hendershott
    , contributor
    Comments (1473) | Send Message
     
    Since the Fed has a mandate to control inflation, I guess it's their responsibility to do something about Syria? Inflation doesn't only happen because of an overheated economy. The Fed can use interest rates to influence the economy, they can't do anything about oil cartels, revolutions and war, or droughts raising the price of foodstuffs. It's not all about the Fed.
    28 Aug 2013, 10:01 PM Reply Like
  • Hendershott
    , contributor
    Comments (1473) | Send Message
     
    All in all a great argument for converting trucks etc. to NG.
    28 Aug 2013, 08:52 PM Reply Like
  • Energysystems
    , contributor
    Comments (882) | Send Message
     
    Yep. It's well on it's way.
    28 Aug 2013, 09:08 PM Reply Like
  • SoldHigh
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    Absurd
    28 Aug 2013, 09:39 PM Reply Like
  • justaminute
    , contributor
    Comments (581) | Send Message
     
    Funny how you never hear anything about Iraq anymore.
    28 Aug 2013, 11:30 PM Reply Like
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