Seeking Alpha

Global PC shipments expected to fall 9.7% in 2013: IDC

  • Worldwide PC shipments are expected to fall 9.7% in 2013, according to IDC. Today's figure represents the second time the research firm has slashed its projection, from -7.8% in May, and from an original -1.3% back in March.
  • Tablets are the main transgressor, IDC noted. And China and other developing economies, which were once healthy drivers of PC sales, have seen demand dry up at even faster rates than developed markets.
  • Cannibalization appears to favor the small, as IDC nudged its 2013 tablet forecast to 227.4M, from 229.3M previously. To blame? New smartphones with large screens and the release of wearable devices like smart watches.
  • The ever-dimming light at the end of the tunnel bodes poorly for MSFT, INTC, DELL, HPQ, STX, WDC, MU, AMD, and NVDA.
  • Previous: Global PC shipments fell 10.9% Y/Y in Q2 to 76M
Comments (14)
  • Philip Marlowe
    , contributor
    Comments (1065) | Send Message
     
    I would appreciate it if you could stop throwing MU in the PC group. MU make memories and flash for all devices from cell phones, tablets to cars. They are not tied to the fate of PCs. They will sell memories and flash for whatever replaces the PC.
    29 Aug 2013, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • Justin Jaynes
    , contributor
    Comments (3154) | Send Message
     
    I will point out here that there is a disconnect between gaming hardware enthusiasts and IDC numbers based on OEM sales.

     

    http://bit.ly/193zOYq

     

    This disconnect will help offset some of the decline for Intel, AMD, Nvidia, etc.

     

    Currently Long AMD/Intel
    29 Aug 2013, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • Russ Fischer
    , contributor
    Comments (2587) | Send Message
     
    Aren't these the clowns who don't count ultra mobiles like MacBook Airs and Ultrabooks as PCs?

     

    I know for certain that they don't count Win8 tablets as PCs, even though they use Intel CPUs and have keyboards and are PCs in every sense of the word.
    29 Aug 2013, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • Justin Jaynes
    , contributor
    Comments (3154) | Send Message
     
    Ultrabooks and MBAs are counted as PCs, "slate devices" with detachable keyboards are not.
    29 Aug 2013, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • HarryPothead
    , contributor
    Comments (259) | Send Message
     
    More garbage and propoganda...
    30 Aug 2013, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • Arthur Fisher
    , contributor
    Comments (246) | Send Message
     
    I think that this may well be a hiatus, not a straight track to a dark future. Greatly successful investment in technology has always meant investing in an unforeseeable future by investing in people who can bring that unseen future into reality. Some of these folks mentioned here will reinvent themselves in that way, and some will not.
    29 Aug 2013, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • milkchaser
    , contributor
    Comments (958) | Send Message
     
    As an INTC investor, I don't care PC or tablet so long there is Intel Inside.

     

    I find it interesting that so many people were using PCs for things that can be done on a tablet or smartphone. That would be about 0.01% of what I use a PC for (I require keyboard, disk space and multiple large monitors). I can't help but wonder if the depressed numbers are related to the stagnant global economy, which drives frugality amongst the users.
    29 Aug 2013, 06:26 PM Reply Like
  • badbernanke
    , contributor
    Comments (259) | Send Message
     
    I have avoided replacing several PCs because I didn't like Win 8. The fact that Win 8 didn't include the Windows Media Center was also important for a number of uses. Win 7 works fine, every program I need works with it, although several programs and hardware items quit working when I "upgraded" from XP/Vista to Win 7 because drivers were not made available for some hardware (like one of my HP Laserjet multifunction printers which lost all capability except printing and a couple programs that didn't get along with Win 7). I don't want to risk the incompatibility with Win 8 -- I suffered enough in the last "upgrade".

     

    Old chip technology also seems perfectly adequate for all my needs. So I have no compelling reason to change either hardware or software.

     

    While I might like a new laptop, I want 11.6" maximum screen size. Probably would wait for INTC next generation core chips, no reason to buy the old chips. And I would want Win 7 as the OS.
    29 Aug 2013, 09:04 PM Reply Like
  • kwright62
    , contributor
    Comments (12) | Send Message
     
    If PC sales drop does this invariably equate with poor sales for MSFT?
    29 Aug 2013, 08:29 PM Reply Like
  • badbernanke
    , contributor
    Comments (259) | Send Message
     
    Good question. But figure lost sales of the OS, lost sales of Office suites on new computers. Probably a pretty good growth hit.

     

    I quit getting new editions of Office. While not perfect, I found that I could get 95% functionality using free office suites like LibreOffice.
    29 Aug 2013, 09:08 PM Reply Like
  • HarryPothead
    , contributor
    Comments (259) | Send Message
     
    Not at all. Don't get frightened so easily by these manipulators.
    30 Aug 2013, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • techy46
    , contributor
    Comments (6268) | Send Message
     
    I remember the crisis when the minicomputer (16bits) replaced the mainframe (32bits) and then the crisis when the microcomputer (8bits) replaced the minicomputer. Now all PC's, including smart phones and tablets, are 32 or 64 bits. So will the Wrist Computer (WC), which is smaller than all of the others, replace all of them? Do not think so, it's all natural evolution of personal computer to ever more forms and they can all be made as commodities by anyone including Andtel and Wintel.
    29 Aug 2013, 09:33 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Gomes
    , contributor
    Comments (1972) | Send Message
     
    Actually, STX and WDC benefit from this dynamic. The move to tablets has increased the need for storage in the cloud (which is part of the reason why these stocks have performed so well).

     

    Cloud storage requires about 3GB for every 1GB that would exist in an equivalent laptop. The reason is that storing data in the cloud requires more back-up, geographic redundancy, etc. People take chances with their storage, but cloud storage vendors can't take such risks with client data.

     

    This is part of why STX has been part of the PoisedToTriple portfolio since it was under $18 (it is now $38+, good for 53% annualized since we highlighted it): http://seekingalpha.co...
    29 Aug 2013, 11:46 PM Reply Like
  • henhill69
    , contributor
    Comments (29) | Send Message
     
    Check out this DELL Business Update Call Transcript @ http://bit.ly/1dzw4nL
    30 Aug 2013, 07:00 PM Reply Like
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