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Jan. Nonfarm Payrolls: +243K vs. consensus of +125K, +203K (revised) in Dec. Unemployment 8.3%...

Jan. Nonfarm Payrolls: +243K vs. consensus of +125K, +203K (revised) in Dec. Unemployment 8.3% vs 8.5% expected. Avg. hourly earnings +0.2%. to $23.29. Workweek unchanged at 34.5.
Comments (46)
  • TruffelPig
    , contributor
    Comments (4091) | Send Message
     
    Wow.
    3 Feb 2012, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2198) | Send Message
     
    Wow look at all those jobs!…Look at all those people no longer in Labor Force…look at that decline in participation rate….again the denominator declines
    3 Feb 2012, 08:34 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13579) | Send Message
     
    Look at how all those folks suddenly find work when -- not coincidentally -- the 99-week unemployment benefits expire for many.
    3 Feb 2012, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2198) | Send Message
     
    Don't think so..
    http://bit.ly/yu28Cu
    http://bit.ly/wd8dbb

     

    More people vanished from the workforce...1.2 million from Dec 2011 to Jan 2012.

     

    I'm not saying jobs weren't created….but the workforce degradation is still (over +10 yrs) faster than job creation. Absolutely people can make money in equities at the moment and the market should continue to rise (especially with the Fed still monetizing the debt..20-30yr UST's of which the Fed has purchased over 90%), but eventually this situation will cause quite a massive problem.
    3 Feb 2012, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • jason2788
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    bullish
    3 Feb 2012, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • Josh Krause
    , contributor
    Comments (1361) | Send Message
     
    Shorts initiated due to the 1330 topping range are going to get crushed by this.

     

    That would include me.
    3 Feb 2012, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • Conventional Wisdumb
    , contributor
    Comments (1802) | Send Message
     
    I guess, the ECRI recession call has to go into the ash heap of history as a gigantic miss. I being one of those diehards that stuck to the guns on this will have to rethink the analysis. It looks like what was a slowdown in the summer really did turn around.

     

    So what the hell does the FED see in the future that is making them so cautious?

     

    This does not make sense.
    3 Feb 2012, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • Gregor_MacGregor
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    ^^you are asking the right question...rephrased it would be "what do they know that they are not telling the public?" I for one am not changing my mind until I see two more months of positive figures. As far as I am concerned this is all smoke and mirrors. We have elections coming up...
    3 Feb 2012, 08:45 AM Reply Like
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2198) | Send Message
     
    Look at the not seasonally adjusted numbers in Table A-1.
    Employed went from 140.68 million to 139.94 million M/M.
    Not In Labor Force went from 87.21 million to 88.78 Million M/M…Y/Y was an over 2.6 million increase.

     

    The denominator is eroding as it has been for the last +10 yrs..
    3 Feb 2012, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • Conventional Wisdumb
    , contributor
    Comments (1802) | Send Message
     
    Papa,

     

    Does that mean the actual number of people counted as having a "job" has gone down?

     

    Don't these people need the money?
    3 Feb 2012, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • jpiretti
    , contributor
    Comments (712) | Send Message
     
    Isn't this merely a function of demographic changes (larger % of old/retired vs young/employed) It seems to me that the only way the denominator increases is looser immigration legislation...it would also stabilize the SS projections.
    3 Feb 2012, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2198) | Send Message
     
    @jp Participation rate, not in labor force and employment to population ratio ONLY refer to work age people. Retirees are not counted. With slowing population growth and increasing retirees, it should be easier for people to get jobs (maybe not living wage) due to less competition. Instead, the number of workage people participating in the workforce continues to decline. The Not In Labor Force (work age people not attached to the labor force in any way) made it's largest spike in 30 yrs. This situation should be extremely worrying.
    http://bit.ly/sBiT0v
    3 Feb 2012, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • jpiretti
    , contributor
    Comments (712) | Send Message
     
    This statement must be one of the signs of the coming apocalypse...just kidding CW.
    3 Feb 2012, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • Econdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (2944) | Send Message
     
    You ae looking at the wrong numbers. Those data do not matter at this stage of the cycle.

     

    Not sure why you harp on information that is of little value.

     

    The Thursday number is THE NUMBER TO LOOK AT. That is telling you what is really happening. Focus there.

     

    The NFP is useful and this is a good report - all the way around. But it does not become important for another 6 months.

     

    Unemployment rate and all the other garbage you and many others are obsessed with right now are not useful for investment purposes at the moment.

     

    Unemployment and participation are important later to identify a hot market. When these numbers are good. When they are strong. They tell you the time to get out.

     

    At the moment - they just don't matter. And the market must go highre as growth is here and profits are good.

     

    E
    3 Feb 2012, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • jpiretti
    , contributor
    Comments (712) | Send Message
     
    Competition is still very stiff right now. We are under 5:1 seekers/openings ratio from a peak of 7:1 3 years ago and the participation rate among 55-65 year olds is at historical highs.
    http://bit.ly/AEKlGf
    What PR does not account for is the 65+ working part time (trending higher) or in consultant work and the home based businesses that have exploded since 2005. I don't think the standard way we collect this metric reflects these changes in employment population. The household survey attempts to collect this data, but the number of data points is still too small.
    3 Feb 2012, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2198) | Send Message
     
    I disagree completely. Weekly is merely a short term trend of NEW filings. It does not give an overall view of what is happening in the population workforce….merely people newly laid off, which for over the last +2 months has been over 400,000 (NSA ). Size of potential workforce is huge…number actually in it is declining

     

    Civilian workforce population:
    http://bit.ly/yo5uze

     

    Average weeks unemployed:
    http://bit.ly/wug2Fy

     

    Civ Participation rate:
    http://bit.ly/yu28Cu

     

    I'm not saying jobs aren't being created. But even with slower population growth and higher number of people retiring (retirees aren't counted in the above graphs) we should see a reversal in the participation rate..instead it still declines. It means the number of work age people not working is growing faster than jobs. This has numerous implications, from strains on social systems and continued debt growth, to those working having to support an increasing population of those who aren't. The other item not well covered are how good are the jobs? Are they living wage, or low wage that still requires state/federal assistance?
    3 Feb 2012, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13579) | Send Message
     
    CW:

     

    The Fed, Bernanke, is just being circumspect, like a good, cautious politician. He gains nothing by trumpeting wildly optimistic projections, and he'd immediately undermine the low-interest rate plan that he keeps promoting. Besides that, does anybody think Bernanke is the rah-rah cheerleader type?

     

    From an investor's perspective, I'd rather see the markets digest actual data and move accordingly than get all excited by verbiage and get overheated and more volatile.

     

    The longer people ignore data and try to ascertain hidden agendas and conspiracies in words and punditry, the further from economic reality they are going to stray, and, ergo, the worse will be their investment decisions.
    3 Feb 2012, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • David Urban
    , contributor
    Comments (1036) | Send Message
     
    The erosion of the denominator is the biggest reason the unemployment rate is falling.

     

    Those people dropping out of the workforce are more than likely getting paid under the table.

     

    The biggest success of this administration and Congress is the expansion of the grey market economy which explains the jump in retail sales while personal income and employment are flat.
    3 Feb 2012, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • David Urban
    , contributor
    Comments (1036) | Send Message
     
    @CW re: The Fed

     

    The Fed sees an upcoming drop in Federal spending, fallout from Europe, and tight credit in Asia from European banks not funding global trade.
    3 Feb 2012, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13579) | Send Message
     
    DU:

     

    And, that's one major reason why those making investment decisions based on a dissection official employment data, rather than corporate results, have mostly made the wrong ones.
    3 Feb 2012, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • 2PP
    , contributor
    Comments (349) | Send Message
     
    Although I'm happy to see more people get jobs, it's hard to believe any numbers coming out of Washington in an election year. Especially the way the numbers are calculated and the ability for the NFP numbers to be massaged up or down depending on what the administration wants. By October GDP will be up to 7% and unemployment will 4.5% if the same people work the numbers. Ha ha
    3 Feb 2012, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • jpiretti
    , contributor
    Comments (712) | Send Message
     
    While I think it is healthy to question anything involving govt., you also see the same trend line since March of 09' in the ADP report which only measures private sector employment and is calculated by a private sector firm.

     

    http://read.bi/wtmzxY
    3 Feb 2012, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • jason2788
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    bullish. all bullish. stop fighting it.
    3 Feb 2012, 08:47 AM Reply Like
  • anonymous#12
    , contributor
    Comments (552) | Send Message
     
    The private payrolls number is very strong. 257K.

     

    Also revisions added 60K more jobs for December.
    3 Feb 2012, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2198) | Send Message
     
    Record surge in part-time jobs.
    3 Feb 2012, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • DeepValueLover
    , contributor
    Comments (8701) | Send Message
     
    How many of these "new jobs" went to illegal aliens?

     

    How many of these "new jobs" pay @ the minimum wage with ZERO benefits?
    3 Feb 2012, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • Conventional Wisdumb
    , contributor
    Comments (1802) | Send Message
     
    Time to buy TLT.

     

    Can you imagine the selloff if this all turns out to be a headfake?

     

    I feel so conflicted. Oh man, you just gotta believe but I don't wanna!

     

    Good luck bulls.
    3 Feb 2012, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • DeepValueLover
    , contributor
    Comments (8701) | Send Message
     
    Better yet sell ITM puts on the TBT.
    3 Feb 2012, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • Conventional Wisdumb
    , contributor
    Comments (1802) | Send Message
     
    Sorry I meant short TLT or buy TBT!

     

    Big difference.
    3 Feb 2012, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • DeepValueLover
    , contributor
    Comments (8701) | Send Message
     
    Gotcha.
    3 Feb 2012, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • jason2788
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    I am short TLT from 119.50. I took 1/2 off the table, now just riding the 2nd half.
    3 Feb 2012, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • Star1965
    , contributor
    Comments (71) | Send Message
     
    THE ECB quant easing and Bernankes comments on qe 3 wont really apply now.. My sense is is that this was all done to prepare markets and pump them up a little this quarter in advance of greeces impending default. the situation there is quite bad. Eurozone is moving into the endgame. the slow motion train wreck at some time has to end.
    3 Feb 2012, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • jason2788
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    Greece is 11million of the 7billion people. Tiny. It don't matta folks.
    3 Feb 2012, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • Harry Johnson
    , contributor
    Comments (482) | Send Message
     
    What does matter, though, is that the soverign debt of the EU members that are insolvent (not to be confused with illiquid) that is held by EU banks exceeds their capital and there are those pesky credit default swaps ($ Trillions ??) still lurking out there somewhere.
    4 Feb 2012, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • 867046
    , contributor
    Comments (398) | Send Message
     
    Did AAPL's results kind of tip this off since AAPL's results would be roughly correlated to disposable income?
    3 Feb 2012, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • 2PP
    , contributor
    Comments (349) | Send Message
     
    1.2 million people just vanished from the labor force this month.
    How does 240K jobs equal .2 of the whole US labor force??
    3 Feb 2012, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • Josh Krause
    , contributor
    Comments (1361) | Send Message
     
    Through the magic of government statistical wizardry.

     

    This economic report is exactly why there is going to be a massive correction in the future.

     

    It is the tool of bubble blowers. Good headline numbers with insanely horrible fundamentals.

     

    Great for getting a fresh crop of bagholders in at the top.
    3 Feb 2012, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • 2PP
    , contributor
    Comments (349) | Send Message
     
    More on fake numbers. This from Hot Air.
    Linked from a Wash, DC source.

     

    Here is an important fact: Despite a population increase…
    People working in Jan. 2009 – 142,099,000
    People working in Jan. 2012 – 141,637,000
    3 Feb 2012, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • Conventional Wisdumb
    , contributor
    Comments (1802) | Send Message
     
    2PP,

     

    It is so bizarre in the pure numbers sense - the unemployment rate keeps falling with fewer people working overall with an increasing population. I guess people who used to work for a living don't want to anymore. Even the CBO report acknowledged the disconnect this week.

     

    What happened to U6?

     

    This chart from HedgeEye is really eye-opening (pun unintentional).

     

    http://bit.ly/yOPw2v

     

    That's a bizarre graphic for a strong economic recovery.
    3 Feb 2012, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2198) | Send Message
     
    CW…here is the problem. The jobs trend are for lower wage, lower educated lower skilled workers. It's as if by design, the powers that be, want to transform the US workforce into the Chinese one. The problem is the cost of living isn't at the Chinese level.

     

    Participation rate for those 25 and older with a bachelors or higher, has been declining since records have been kept (1992).
    http://bit.ly/xwW6Uo

     

    But those with no HS education or lower has been rather stable for the last 7 yrs. (growing since mid 90's).
    http://bit.ly/wZBr69

     

    HS diploma, AS degree all have a similar down trend as Bachelors and higher. The 16-19 yr old age group has been below historic low levels for years so it isn't worth mentioning.
    3 Feb 2012, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • David Urban
    , contributor
    Comments (1036) | Send Message
     
    @CW both the Treasury and CBO reports acknowledge the problems but Congress and the White House are oblivious.
    3 Feb 2012, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • Nolesince87
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    Doesn't matter how many people are employed. It only matters how much they are spending. All these fake employment numbers mean the following: yes, companies are hiring more but most of the jobs are p/t (underemployed) or underpaid; also, employment levels are not NEARLY what they were before the "Great Recession", so much more hiring needed... but companies are sitting on record amounts of cash (freshly and electronically printed) which they are unwilling to spend b/c they see no real future growth.

     

    All of this will eventually play out in 1-2 qtrs when companies report earnings. You will see near record numbers of warnings, misses, and lowered guidance. However, FOR NOW, the market loves it's crack cocaine, and it's all bullish... up, up, and away! Personally, I would only sit in cash and/or selectively swing trade this market, because the top is only 5-10% away, whereas the bottom is 50%+.
    3 Feb 2012, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • Conventional Wisdumb
    , contributor
    Comments (1802) | Send Message
     
    Nole,

     

    Sadly I am still in your camp but I feel so lonely here. I need a hug!

     

    Or a nice stiff drink.

     

    BLS - "Bulls**t, Lies, & Statistics"
    3 Feb 2012, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • Harry Johnson
    , contributor
    Comments (482) | Send Message
     
    Whoever said "One Swallow does not make the spring" never observed our modern markets. The bulls must undoubtedly be smoking something to jump in on news that the economy is recovering based on employment figures that will probably be quietly "adjusted" later, and are probably within the margin of error anyway.
    4 Feb 2012, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • Teutonic Knight
    , contributor
    Comments (2061) | Send Message
     
    Would troops coming back from Iraq off from active duty be qualified for Unemployment Insurance? Does anyone know? If not, those numbers are skewed.
    3 Feb 2012, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • Harry Johnson
    , contributor
    Comments (482) | Send Message
     
    From the Dept of Vet Affairs web site...

     

    "Veterans who do not begin civilian employment immediately after leaving military service may receive weekly unemployment compensation for a limited time. The amount and duration of payments are determined by individual states. Apply by contacting the nearest state employment office listed in your local telephone directory."

     

    If you want to know how badly the numbers can be skewed, got to the Dept. Of Labor web site and see how they determine job creation and unemployment. Rather than "job creation" a more accurate term would be "statistics creation."

     

    In any event, the number for January doesn't mean much when you consider the fact that 150,000 new people enter the job market for the first time every month.
    4 Feb 2012, 03:38 PM Reply Like
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