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President's trouble spells stock market trouble

  • "When the President is in trouble, the stock market is in trouble," said Eliot Janeway years ago. "Clearly the President is in trouble," says Raymond James' normally bullish, but recently cautious Jeff Saut.
  • Yesterday's opening spike was seemingly the result of short-covering from those who sold Friday expecting missiles to fly over the weekend, says Saut. Once sated, markets drifted downward, barely eking out a gain by day's end. "Up mornings and down afternoons is not particularly good stock market action."
  • This correction likely won't be complete until the S&P 500 moves south of 1,600 (1,640 at the moment), says Saut, but he expects the index to remain above 1,500.
  • Notable is the level of investor complacency as shown by this chart from Jason Goepfert: The ratio of mutual fund and ETF assets to money market fund assets is at an all-time high of 3.49 - surpassing the levels seen at the peaks in 2000 and 2007.
  • S&P 500 ETFs: IVV, SPY, VOO, RWL, SFLA, SSO, UPRO, SDS, SPXU, SH, EPS, RSP, BXUB, BXUC, BXDBIVW, RPG, SPYG, VOOGSPYV, IVE, RPV, VOOV, FTA,.
Comments (3)
  • Brian Bobbitt
    , contributor
    Comments (1888) | Send Message
     
    I totally disagree with the statement. Perhaps in years past, that president's problems equaled USA money trouble, but not now. Most of the business community realize electing Obama was a mistake, and the fact he does not seem to understand what business is all about, so in this respect, be it true, would be 'President's trouble equals good business.
    Just one angle without any horizontal parallax.
    Wandering around in the swamp.
    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    4 Sep 2013, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • Trader 611
    , contributor
    Comments (56) | Send Message
     
    And from what I've read in other articles margin borrowing is at an all time high - I don't have an immediate source, maybe someone else does? Somewhat alarming...
    4 Sep 2013, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • tomshup
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    This may have been true with most Presidents'.....not so, now. As a contrarian, I suggest that if BHO is in trouble, that is good for the market! Actually, in the long run what any President does has fleeting influence. Unless, with the help of Congress, they rewrite the rules, as in Obamacare and Dodd-Frank! None of which is a long term benefit for the market!
    4 Sep 2013, 03:22 PM Reply Like
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