President's trouble spells stock market trouble

|By:, SA News Editor

"When the President is in trouble, the stock market is in trouble," said Eliot Janeway years ago. "Clearly the President is in trouble," says Raymond James' normally bullish, but recently cautious Jeff Saut.

Yesterday's opening spike was seemingly the result of short-covering from those who sold Friday expecting missiles to fly over the weekend, says Saut. Once sated, markets drifted downward, barely eking out a gain by day's end. "Up mornings and down afternoons is not particularly good stock market action."

This correction likely won't be complete until the S&P 500 moves south of 1,600 (1,640 at the moment), says Saut, but he expects the index to remain above 1,500.

Notable is the level of investor complacency as shown by this chart from Jason Goepfert: The ratio of mutual fund and ETF assets to money market fund assets is at an all-time high of 3.49 - surpassing the levels seen at the peaks in 2000 and 2007.

S&P 500 ETFs: IVV, SPY, VOO, RWL, SFLA, SSO, UPRO, SDS, SPXU, SH, EPS, RSP, BXUB, BXUC, BXDBIVW, RPG, SPYG, VOOGSPYV, IVE, RPV, VOOV, FTA,.