In an SA Pro article (embargoed until 11:15AM ET Wednesday), contributor Akram's Razor raises the possibility Dan Loeb will push Tibco (TIBX +3.6%) to do a spinoff/IPO for its fast-growing Business Optimization unit. Loeb disclosed a 5M-share (3%+) stake in Tibco in his Q2 13F.
The author observes that while revenue for Tibco's mainstay SOA and Core Infrastructure (middleware) unit fell 21% Y/Y in 1H, the Business Optimization unit, which includes Tibco's popular Spotfire analytics/data visualization platform, posted 23% rev. growth. Spotfire sales rose 30% in the June quarter.
He also points out Tibco is trading at a major discount to richly-valued analytics software rivals Qlik and Tableau thanks to its middleware weakness. "What you get is this nice core cash cow business burying the multiple of the whole company."
Tibco has asserted there are synergies between its middleware ops and Spotfire. However, Akram's Razor sees no reason "separating out the BO division in ... an EMC/VMW manner would hurt application integration sales." He estimates a 10% equity carve-out would deliver "25%-40% upside."