Seeking Alpha

It's still not time to buy the refiners, Deutsche Bank says

  • It's still not time to buy the refiners, Deutsche Bank says, even after the beat-down which has sent  Valero (VLO) -7.3%, Marathon Petroleum (MPC) -17%, Tesoro (TSO) -21%, Phillips 66 (PSX) -13% and HollyFrontier (HFC) -7.7% in the past three months.
  • The firm sees a potential entry point around October/November, but a Q3 round of earnings downgrades likely will bring lower equity prices; it's better to wait, "as global oil markets have become weakened by super-high oil prices and demand may be too damaged to allow for a strong winter for refining."
  • Several sell-side firms have expressed similar trepidations recently.
Comments (9)
  • Michael Fitzsimmons
    , contributor
    Comments (7931) | Send Message
     
    I expect PSX to outperform the pure refiner group after Q3 earnings releases because its extensive midstream & chemicals businesses make the company more diversified. PSX would have had a much better Q2 had it not been for the power outages that knocked 'em back a bit.
    10 Sep 2013, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • knockrip
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    Yes, that was a delay, looks ok to me, it's on neutral waters. Looks like Insiders are picking it up, more and more.
    11 Sep 2013, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • zorro2828
    , contributor
    Comments (459) | Send Message
     
    As a contrarian, when everything looks black, I start to buy and like Mike I have my favourites which are HFC and PSX .. PSX was hit by the power outages and with a complete quarter, I expect they will be doing just fine .. HFC is in the right geographical space, pays lots of special dividends and has a management that is really shareholder friendly... I am starting to nibble here and adding to my positions
    10 Sep 2013, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • DustedGold
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    Picked up some MPC. Don't see too much a difference among psx/mpc/vlo. I'm betting on a wider crack spread and abundance of crude in the states long term.
    10 Sep 2013, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • Ruffdog
    , contributor
    Comments (1156) | Send Message
     
    Me to, I am thinks of buying back the covered calls I sold?
    10 Sep 2013, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • HopeItsUp
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    Anyone have a thought on TSO? I am long, and considering harvesting my loss for tax reasons. Wise or stupid? I need some advice, please!
    10 Sep 2013, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • peter9810
    , contributor
    Comments (33) | Send Message
     
    Hope you didn't sell.
    10 Sep 2013, 10:47 PM Reply Like
  • knockrip
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    Took a fast 2 second look, looks to outperform but you must do your own research, not an expert.
    11 Sep 2013, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • peter9810
    , contributor
    Comments (33) | Send Message
     
    AMEN
    12 Sep 2013, 08:44 AM Reply Like
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