Seeking Alpha

Sell side: 5C not cheap enough

  • BAML downgrades Apple (AAPL) to Neutral citing a lack of catalysts and no low-end phone.
  • Credit Suisse cuts to Neutral with price target of $525, with the team expressing concern about a lack of innovation and - like BAML - noting even the iPhone5C is a premium device.
  • Susquehanna's Chris Caso reiterates his Neutral rating and $440 price target - like the others noting this product cycle isn't a catalyst and the C in 5C definitely doesn't stand for "cheap." "We think the biggest surprise from an investment perspective is that the new iPhone 5C will be positioned as a midrange phone, and won’t provide much near-term help in addressing lower price points in emerging markets." His team doesn't expect the addition of DoCOMo and China Mobile to allow for the sort of significant market boost that would come from a true lower-priced phone. He's more bullish next year given expectations for a larger screen iPhone and more aggressive pricing for the 5C.
  • Shares down another 2.6% premarket.
Comments (64)
  • pagreen1966
    , contributor
    Comments (573) | Send Message
     
    Apple's board of directors have completely lost the plot.

     

    The 5C is not that much cheaper than the 5S. Why would anyone buy the 5C when they can pay a little more for a better experience.

     

    Conversely, there may be others who don't think the fingerprint sensor is worth the extra expenditure in which case the 5C will cannabilise sales of the 5S.

     

    Gene Munster stated on Bloomberg West last night that he thinks sales of the iphone will be much lower than he expected going forward because of this pricing structure and he will be reducing his forecasts for Apple in the next few days.

     

    Apple Crumble!!
    11 Sep 2013, 07:30 AM Reply Like
  • Humble Eagles
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    I suspect that is why two members of the Apple BOD and much of the executive team was selling most to all of their Apple stock and options going into the release.
    11 Sep 2013, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • Cagdas Ozgenc
    , contributor
    Comments (393) | Send Message
     
    I think that was kind of the point. For non-emerging markets they wanted to enforce the "difference is small better to buy 5S" psychology, while creating slight price improvement for emerging markets. They definitely avoided cannibalization, but whether they will be able to sell, that is a different question.
    11 Sep 2013, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • criticalbear
    , contributor
    Comments (81) | Send Message
     
    You're thinking this a bit too simplistically. Historically, Apple has always had a phone in the iphone 5c segment. Last year is iPhone 4S, iPhone 4 the year before it. Apple has had data on sales of these machines over the past few years.

     

    So let's not act like this price segment is "new and exciting." Regarding your first concern, why would anybody buy the 5c when they can pay a little more for a better experience? well apple has differentiated the product AND this isn't the first $100 cheaper phone apple has released during the fall.

     

    Your second concern, cannabilization of sales of the 5S? Actually, Apple hit the nail right on its head. Not only has Apple released a bigger iteration of their S line (people don't talk enough about 64-bit, motion chip, and fingerprint sensor, last s line just had siri), they also made the $100 cheaper phone now plastic, higher margin, and aimed at a different market segment. So even if it does cannabilize the sale, I expect the margin to be much higher.
    11 Sep 2013, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • FAT BANKER
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    Says who ?!
    So you and the dumb writer of this article against all the creativity and brains at APPLE ? LOL

     

    I know which one I would put my money on - no contest !!
    11 Sep 2013, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • 2ng
    , contributor
    Comments (84) | Send Message
     
    I suspect that 5c margins are way bigger than the 5s ones
    11 Sep 2013, 07:50 AM Reply Like
  • Pimust
    , contributor
    Comments (595) | Send Message
     
    Only if the consumers are willing to pay that ridiculous price which I doubt.
    11 Sep 2013, 08:38 AM Reply Like
  • 2ng
    , contributor
    Comments (84) | Send Message
     
    We will see it very soon... until then, it's stupid to bash apple because its price.
    11 Sep 2013, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • criticalbear
    , contributor
    Comments (81) | Send Message
     
    you doubt it because last year, the iphone 4S sold terribly right?

     

    oh wait, the biggest knock on apple was that their old machines was still selling strong. gee i wonder if apple is trying to raise the margins
    11 Sep 2013, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • EquityInvestor1
    , contributor
    Comments (70) | Send Message
     
    You forgot the available margin allows Apple to offer no interest payment plans through Chinese banks. This is a solid product offering with multi tear pricing when you consider the 4, 5C and 5s. IO7, iWorks, Finger print scanner, a Camera that rivals DSLRs and first of a kind 64-bit processor ARE huge and will equate to higher sales volume. Locally, the trade-in program is enough of a catalyst to drive sales. I have to admit, my 4S is going back to Apple for a Gold 5S...the thing is outright gorgeous!
    11 Sep 2013, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • slerickson01
    , contributor
    Comments (110) | Send Message
     
    Crap, down 4+ % on volume pre market.
    Cooke ain't cool for sure.
    Where's the window?
    11 Sep 2013, 07:57 AM Reply Like
  • tclark13
    , contributor
    Comments (133) | Send Message
     
    This phone costs over 700 bucks in china. I don't see how this is going to appreciably grow their market share over there and I thought that was the whole point of the "C".
    11 Sep 2013, 08:12 AM Reply Like
  • Humble Eagles
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    That was the same exact argument when the 4S came out! The stock crashes and then consumers buy them like no tomorrow.
    11 Sep 2013, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • chopchop0
    , contributor
    Comments (3138) | Send Message
     
    When the 4S came out, there was no quality offerings from android like what you're seeing from Samsung.
    11 Sep 2013, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • nguyenvanphuoc
    , contributor
    Comments (366) | Send Message
     
    What's going to grow their share in China is China Mobile.

     

    A part of the presentation yesterday that I think is missed is the fact that the 4S is now 'free' with a 2 year contract. You don't get much cheaper than free. The 4S is still an amazing phone in its own right, and for people looking for a less expensive Apple product, the 4S will be a great starting point.

     

    I'm guessing that there are plenty of existing China Mobile subscribers that can afford the 5S. I'm guessing there are more that can afford the 5C. I'm guessing there are a boatload that can afford the 4S. Between that and the DoCOMo announcement, I think Apple's next growth phase is pretty clear.
    11 Sep 2013, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • rickraphael
    , contributor
    Comments (270) | Send Message
     
    They are also selling the 4 in China below the cost of the 4S.
    11 Sep 2013, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • Humble Eagles
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Chop, I disagree. It is roughly the same relatively. Apple's internals are still vastly superior, but Android's screens suck a lot of unsuspecting buyers in. Assuming they leave, after owning an Android most will come back to Apple, I suspect.
    11 Sep 2013, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • chopchop0
    , contributor
    Comments (3138) | Send Message
     
    " Apple's internals are still vastly superior, but Android's screens suck a lot of unsuspecting buyers in. "

     

    The Galaxy Note 2 sold 3 million units in 30 days. Must be a lot of unsuspecting buyers out there. Hopefully AAPL will address them in 2014 LOL.

     

    Just like the 7-8" tablet, the 5" smartphone will eventually be embraced by AAPL 1-2 years later after eating lots of crow
    11 Sep 2013, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • 2ng
    , contributor
    Comments (84) | Send Message
     
    Sold... or shipped? Like the SGS4...
    11 Sep 2013, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • rocback
    , contributor
    Comments (975) | Send Message
     
    no one wants the Samsung though.
    11 Sep 2013, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • chopchop0
    , contributor
    Comments (3138) | Send Message
     
    "Sold... or shipped?"

     

    SOLD:

     

    http://cnet.co/17ZFEHg
    11 Sep 2013, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • chopchop0
    , contributor
    Comments (3138) | Send Message
     
    "no one wants the Samsung though."

     

    Maybe the Genius bar should pay you to get your head out of the sand once in awhile, rocback. Although it probably would have helped AAPL shareholders more if the BOD got its head out of the sand 2 years ago and made a bigger IPhone.
    11 Sep 2013, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • rocback
    , contributor
    Comments (975) | Send Message
     
    Samsung is the poor mans apple and whats worse, it infected with Android.
    12 Sep 2013, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • rocback
    , contributor
    Comments (975) | Send Message
     
    I see the Korean Jr High let out early today, chopchop. did you get your check from Samsung yet?
    12 Sep 2013, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • chopchop0
    , contributor
    Comments (3138) | Send Message
     
    The only payment I need from Samsung is continue to put out great products like the Note 2. The phablet was a brilliant category for them to create, and they went against plenty of negative comments from critics and iFans alike.

     

    I hope the 3 dividend gives you consolation on the 6% you've lost since the announcement rocback. Hopefully the genius bar will keep you busy with people trying to trade-in their IPhones for the "premium" plastic 5C LOL.

     

    Maybe one day you'll wisen up and buy a real growth stock like $V $MA or $SAM. You would have made 6% the last 3 days instead of losing it if you had just dumped AAPL before the obvious let-down of an event that the 5S/5C release has turned into.
    12 Sep 2013, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • lewhite
    , contributor
    Comments (160) | Send Message
     
    I wonder if AAPL will be active in their stock buy-back program today. About the only good thing that could result from a very disappointing "big event".
    11 Sep 2013, 08:16 AM Reply Like
  • pagreen1966
    , contributor
    Comments (573) | Send Message
     
    I imagine they will wait till it hits $390 again.

     

    The charts are starting to look hideous again!!
    11 Sep 2013, 08:20 AM Reply Like
  • Chris Lau
    , contributor
    Comments (1585) | Send Message
     
    The C turns out to stand for [C]olor...not [C]heap...yet Nokia smartly trolled Apple on this one. http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Second, did you see the ad touting the multi-frame shooting? Wait. I remember this from somewhere else. Again, it's Nokia's Lumia that can do this. Blackberry (BBRY) has "time-shift" which does the same.

     

    Bottom line is that Apple is clearly choosing profits over market share at a time when Android sales are well-over 4:1 or higher to Apple.
    11 Sep 2013, 08:19 AM Reply Like
  • Piptief
    , contributor
    Comments (280) | Send Message
     
    You are forgetting one thing..apple still rakes in all the cash...let the competition take market share...apple will take the cash...it's a simple as that
    11 Sep 2013, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • chopchop0
    , contributor
    Comments (3138) | Send Message
     
    "You are forgetting one thing..apple still rakes in all the cash...let the competition take market share...apple will take the cash...it's a simple as that"

     

    At this rate, they will become such a niche player, all the gross margin in the world won't matter
    11 Sep 2013, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • nguyenvanphuoc
    , contributor
    Comments (366) | Send Message
     
    "Bottom line is that Apple is clearly choosing profits over market share at a time when Android sales are well-over 4:1 or higher to Apple."

     

    What can you spend more easily, profit or market share?

     

    I am completely in favour of profit over market share. Apple doesn't have to be the biggest, just the best. They don't have to sell the most phones, they just have to keep making money on the ones they sell.

     

    The idea that Apple and Samsung/Google/Android are in some kind of 'race' is ludicrous. Apple needs to - and is, as far as I can tell - keep focusing on delivering top quality products.

     

    The profits tell the story, and as a shareholder it's one I like hearing. I'd be much less happy if Apple sent me a piece of paper with a market share number on it in lieu of the almost 3% dividend they send me now.
    11 Sep 2013, 08:44 AM Reply Like
  • marcomar
    , contributor
    Comments (10) | Send Message
     
    I can see the market share growing witching the school kids. Hi, I'm an Apple user and I teach IT. Kids have a tendency to swap smartphones like clothes. Most Android phones, will break fairly rapidly, so they go back and get their parents to get them a new iPhone. I kid received a brand new S4 after having an iPhone and it quickly developed a crack on the screen. You don't see that many brand new iPhones with cracked screens. Nevertheless, iPhones also break but they seek me to replace their screens for them, they are keepers.
    11 Sep 2013, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • idkmybffjill
    , contributor
    Comments (1560) | Send Message
     
    Chris, that's what it comes down to.

     

    chopchop can pant all he wants, but it is iOS that is raking in the ca$h, not Android.
    11 Sep 2013, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • chopchop0
    , contributor
    Comments (3138) | Send Message
     
    chopchop can pant all he wants, but it is iOS that is raking in the ca$h, not Android.

     

    Who cares. Smartphones are have become and will continue to be commoditized. AAPL doesn't have the moat it once did 4-5, even 2-3 years ago. The competition has gotten as good and in some ways has exceeded it.

     

    I prefer moaty businesses, myself. like $V $MA $SAM $FLT etc
    11 Sep 2013, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • idkmybffjill
    , contributor
    Comments (1560) | Send Message
     
    Who cares? LOL! Why are you on an investing website? Not to make money or invest in companies that make money? lol.
    11 Sep 2013, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • chopchop0
    , contributor
    Comments (3138) | Send Message
     
    "Who cares? LOL! Why are you on an investing website? Not to make money or invest in companies that make money? lol.

     

    To comment on the investability of lack thereof of certain stocks.
    11 Sep 2013, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • idkmybffjill
    , contributor
    Comments (1560) | Send Message
     
    So what is your thesis? That Apple's profits will decline? I really can't figure it out except that you seem to hate Apple.
    11 Sep 2013, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • chopchop0
    , contributor
    Comments (3138) | Send Message
     
    My thesis that AAPL is following all of tech and showing that ultimately it will become a commodity player like everyone else. Tech is no place for my money outside of financial tech. I prefer "moaty" businesses. Long V, MA
    12 Sep 2013, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • idkmybffjill
    , contributor
    Comments (1560) | Send Message
     
    Good luck with your moaty businesses. Stellar returns from V & MA over the past 4 years (sarcasm)
    12 Sep 2013, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • chopchop0
    , contributor
    Comments (3138) | Send Message
     
    " Stellar returns from V & MA over the past 4 years (sarcasm)"

     

    Not sure why you are being sarcastic. V hasn't underperformed AAPL by that much the last 4 years and MA has certainly outperformed it. I suspect both will wildly outperfom AAPL going forward. Smartphones are being commoditized. Credit card networks aren't.
    12 Sep 2013, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • Piptief
    , contributor
    Comments (280) | Send Message
     
    If apple came out with an extremely cheap phone, everyone would be saying their margins are going to shrink too much, so damn if thye do and damn if they don't, they can't win for now...until people realize how important the biometric fingerprint sensor will be...probably change the way we do mobile commerce forever...but until that time...the bears will be incontrol
    11 Sep 2013, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  • 2ng
    , contributor
    Comments (84) | Send Message
     
    If the 5c is cheap... its margins are ridiculous and make apple look like a low end company. If the 5c is not cheap... it won't take a lot of market share.

     

    I think most people are like blind shooting at ducks. They really don't have a target or idea of where to point but maybe if they repeat random and perseveringly they eventually maybe get a correct result.
    11 Sep 2013, 08:38 AM Reply Like
  • vandeley
    , contributor
    Comments (110) | Send Message
     
    I agree, and why would anyone want Apple to make a cheap phone? the 5C is to compete at the medium priced segment, against the top Android phones and capture some younger buyers.
    11 Sep 2013, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • John Cusack's Pancreas
    , contributor
    Comments (31) | Send Message
     
    NSA is loving Apple's fingerprint scanner too!
    11 Sep 2013, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • pocohonta
    , contributor
    Comments (543) | Send Message
     
    so John, you'd rather have a 4 digit number as your iPhone password than a finger print? (4 digit number is much easier to crack... just stand over someone's shoulder when they type)
    11 Sep 2013, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • TTNW
    , contributor
    Comments (32) | Send Message
     
    The 4S-5C-5S line up speaks to Apple management's determination to protect margin rather than to fight price war in order to expand market share. History will tell if this is a right call.

     

    In the short to medium term - the addition of 5C will help in the China, Japan markets to broaden appeal. Since the market for smartphones there are growing so rapidly, Apple's small share will organically increase and this will not hurt.

     

    Besides protecting margin, keeping the 5C at this cost point allows Apple to engineer it in such a way as to allow 5C to enjoy virtually the same performance, thus keeping up with an uniform user experience (satisfaction) in the iOS ecosystem. This is also important. iPhone users have proportionally much higher web traffic and aps usages due in no small part to this experience. (Whereas in the Android world, the disparity in performance is not helpful.)
    11 Sep 2013, 08:44 AM Reply Like
  • John Cusack's Pancreas
    , contributor
    Comments (31) | Send Message
     
    Apple = Palm. Remember the Treo 680? Cheaper than the standard Treo but came in 4 colors! I kid you not this is what happens when innovation dies.
    11 Sep 2013, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • BIG_BEN
    , contributor
    Comments (154) | Send Message
     
    Maybe it is an XBox One moment. "Opps. Did we say $550? We meant $450. How did that get in there"
    11 Sep 2013, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • faramarz
    , contributor
    Comments (246) | Send Message
     
    5c never stood for cheap. Appel stated several times that they will never male crappy products & they do not compete for the market share for the sake of gaining a few percentage point of overall market.
    Apple is making money where the money is : high end product buyers & specially premium brand.
    Apple's products are not the result of what is technologically possible but what is technologically useful.
    5c is premium smartphone (slightly improved 5) & c stands for color. if they have priced the 5c at this level, it is because they know to which market they address this device.
    Finally, do you think that the Apple's marketing army knows less than some analysts about the best price target for a new product. Apple has
    11 Sep 2013, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • milehr
    , contributor
    Comments (475) | Send Message
     
    I think that Apple decided that would penetrate the developing markets with 4s and IOS7. This way the company will avoid cannibalization of its higher models, and advance its market share at the same time. It will also avoid partitioning of its entire product line according to the market. Japanese, who worship quality, will be buying 5s and 5c like crazy, and Chinese will do it in large numbers, too. Perhaps those PT-juggling analysts should pause and reflect, before rushing with their recommendations.
    11 Sep 2013, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • techy46
    , contributor
    Comments (5541) | Send Message
     
    Apple's more too'ing Nokia and Samsung. Lesson, first movers don't always stay there just look at Nokia.
    11 Sep 2013, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • gcgretired
    , contributor
    Comments (29) | Send Message
     
    Apple's pricing of the 5C tells me that they did not want to entice cannibalization of their top tier 5S domestically. The $100 price difference between 5C and 5S may not be much in China but $99 vs $199 in the US keeps the 5S value perception intact. To offer the 5C at $49 or lower would have definitely cannibalized the 5S.

     

    The pricing structure shows that Apple's priority is to optimize US sales and let China sales grow organically. The aspirational nature of the Chinese consumer may make this strategy more successful than it now appears.
    11 Sep 2013, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • pocohonta
    , contributor
    Comments (543) | Send Message
     
    $AAPL can sell every iPhones 5S/5C in its inventory at higher price. No need to tarnish its premium image with lower price. You'll see a long line forming at Apple store and/or 30+day wait like what happened last every time a new phone is introduced.

     

    After the Christmas gift rush, they can always lower the price to attract customers who cannot otherwise afford or willing to pay the current price. And the best time to do that will be during the Chinese New Year next year.

     

    For those who cannot afford it but want an iPhone now, they can buy 4, 4S and the old 5, from t he secondary market. Those are now the real C (for "Cheap") phones.
    11 Sep 2013, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12771) | Send Message
     
    Cook's record remains unblemished: not a single major product introduction since assuming the CEO role. That's two long years of almost nothing, while the competition has skated circles around Apple.
    11 Sep 2013, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • idkmybffjill
    , contributor
    Comments (1560) | Send Message
     
    skated circles around Apple? Tack, can you give me Samsung's smartphone profits vs. Apple's?

     

    Won't Apple have more cash on its books by the end of this year than Samsung's entire market cap?

     

    I rest my case.
    11 Sep 2013, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • chopchop0
    , contributor
    Comments (3138) | Send Message
     
    "skated circles around Apple? Tack, can you give me Samsung's smartphone profits vs. Apple's?"

     

    How about Samsung's profit growth vs AAPL in smartphones in the last 2 years?
    11 Sep 2013, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • 426260
    , contributor
    Comments (129) | Send Message
     
    Actually, Strategy Analytics estimates that Samsung had greater handset (feature phone + smartphone) profits than Apple in 2Q13.

     

    Here is an excerpt from the report:
    Neil Shah, Senior Analyst at Strategy Analytics, said, "We estimate Samsung's operating profit for its handset division stood at US$5.2 billion in the second quarter of 2013. Samsung overtook Apple for the first time, which recorded an estimated iPhone operating profit of US$4.6 billion. With strong volumes,
    http://prn.to/12p8YLu
    11 Sep 2013, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • idkmybffjill
    , contributor
    Comments (1560) | Send Message
     
    HAHA! The last 2 years! LOL. Are you a short-term speculator or a long-term investor?

     

    Will Samsung's profit growth be maintained to a level where their overall smartphone profit can overtake Apple's in the next 2 years?

     

    Come talk to me when that happens. Case closed.
    11 Sep 2013, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  • idkmybffjill
    , contributor
    Comments (1560) | Send Message
     
    Also, you failed to answer my second question but okay.
    11 Sep 2013, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • rrosey2
    , contributor
    Comments (685) | Send Message
     
    Why don't you tell Rolls Royce to lower their price, and get more market share ?

     

    As far as "no new products"; what about the Wright Bros.; "no new products since the airplane".
    11 Sep 2013, 07:41 PM Reply Like
  • chopchop0
    , contributor
    Comments (3138) | Send Message
     
    The wright bros Plane is a good analogy. It's the original and hasn't changed just like the iPhone. Unsurprisingly people want the newer Samsung jet
    11 Sep 2013, 09:23 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    No new products for the past 2 years? what about itunes radio?

     

    Anyways, the odds are in our favor for the next 2 years as it is almost impossible that AAPL does not release anything big for the next 2 years. A lot of momentum could come from the next wave of products; iwatch, itv and iwallet.

     

    I hope the stock will go down today, so I can buy a chunk.

     

    Krusty
    12 Sep 2013, 05:13 AM Reply Like
  • diaboliqueguan
    , contributor
    Comments (254) | Send Message
     
    Actually, AAPL didnt say they want to launch a cheaper phone, only the analysts and predictors said/thought this would happen. Hence, they are all disappointed. The word cheaper was not used by AAPL.
    12 Sep 2013, 06:08 AM Reply Like
  • mnymka
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Lets keep it simple. Wall Street and the media pundits are at war with APPLEs board of directors. Wall Street wants to tell APPLEs board how to run their company.
    Like the Iphone 4 it was high priced sold millions than they came out with the Iphone 4s the uproar over the lower cost phone when people just paid for the high priced 4.
    APPLE will sell millions of the 5c and if the numbers are low they will lower the price but they will not be told how or what to do with their company and they will not give away their tech.
    They will start high and then see the end results and with 700 plus million subscribers we will see who had the better mind set on pricing.
    As for android share vs APPLE share... android is a free platform for many venders IOS is a proprietary platform and one end user. You do the math.
    12 Sep 2013, 08:46 AM Reply Like
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