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Mizuho comes to Avanir's defense after sell-off

  • Mizuho rides to the rescue after a report from SA contributor Gravity Research tanked Avanir Pharmaceuticals (AVNR) Wednesday.
  • Analyst Mario Corso thinks Gravity is "off the mark."
  • Mizuho apparently has a different take on Nuedexta off-label marketing and AVNR's chances in a patent lawsuit.
  • AVNR +2.5% premarket
Comments (3)
  • Bentio Gonzalez
    , contributor
    Comments (26) | Send Message
     
    Okay, why is it off the mark? I can't find his justification, only his prediction that AVNR is going to more than double in price.

     

    Off label marketing is a serious issue open to litigation by the government. Patent defense is notoriously difficult in the pharmaceutical market with the majority of cases going in favor of the generics even when dealing with NOVEL drugs carefully patented by major pharmaceutical companies. Isn't it time for analysts to take a serious look at risk and not just take a cheerleader mentality toward whatever company management states? If there is no RISK of course AVNR will double in price. If there is risk, it is not adequately reflected in these price predictions of this analyst, is it?
    12 Sep 2013, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • docrog
    , contributor
    Comments (51) | Send Message
     
    Sr.G: Isn't it time to stop listening to the propaganda (BS) from those who are just trying to help their 'shorts' so they do anything possible to push a stock through the floor? And in case you didn't notice that's not hard to do with these small cap companies.
    Get real and stop worrying about risk. If you fear risk don't get out of bed in the morning. Can't you tell from the tone of the company assassination by Gravity that is pure fraud? Now can you tell me something about that company besides it's registered as Panamanian? If they suppress the price for just a week they have made their case, then we go on debating the veracity of the phony report for a month.
    13 Sep 2013, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • Bentio Gonzalez
    , contributor
    Comments (26) | Send Message
     
    It is your choice whether to pay attention to risk or not. However, to label something as a fraud simply because you don;t share the views of the writer strikes me as foolish. Isn't one of the time honored attitudes in stocks "never fall in love with what you own?"

     

    If risk isn't an important parameter in stock evaluations, why do stocks fall on bad news? I think the issue is one of being "overly optimistic" versus being "rational". Frankly, many small stocks are over promoted and I have to ask myself, why? My guess is that some financial analysts are "priming the pump" -- pushing up stock values to unreasonable levels by publishing overly optimistic scenarios of their value. The real pain isn't a stock falling a small amount based on a dose of reality. The real pain is a stock falls 50-80% because it was over promoted and then shorted.

     

    AVNR is down two days after the initial report. It fell even more on Friday. One should be asking, "why weren't any of these issues EVER raised before by analysts? This is not information that could only be obtained by an insider. This was information freely available to anyone who wanted to look into it,but didn't or at least refused to print information about risk. You complain about a negative report on AVNR, but have you ever thought about the overly glowing positive reports that never once mention significant risks facing the company? I think it cuts both ways. The smart investor is the EDUCATED investor, not the wild eyed optimist that thinks only the sky is the limit.

     

    If you want to invest in small pharmaceutical stocks, here is my tip. Invest in those with great management and fantastic ideas. For example, Taro Pharmaceutical Industries is an Israeli generic drug manufacture. It has has grown 6 fold in 12 years and its net income has gone up 26 fold during that same time. Very well run company. If you want to invest in a small pharmaceutical company with more risk, but with a great concept for the future in drug therapy, buy Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc.

     

    AVNR was never a great company. It has been an overpromoted company attempting to rely on gimmicks in place of sound pharmaceutical science, much like Raptor continues to be. Someone is going to make money on them, but in the end it will be the shorts who do when these companies fall back down to earth. Meanwhile, the investor who believed in the analysts who sold them the pie in the sky will end up holding an empty bag..

     

    Benito
    Retired, Pharmaceutical Scientist
    14 Sep 2013, 10:28 AM Reply Like
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