Ariad falls as Oppenheimer, others raise questions


Ariad Pharmaceuticals (ARIA -3.3%) trades notably lower after the company said Thursday it will present data from a Phase 1/2 trial of AP26113 at the European Cancer Congress on September 28. (PR)

For his part, Oppenheimer's David Ferreiro thinks positive results are factored into the stock's price. If the data fails to impress, Ferreiro thinks the shares could fall 10%.

Not helping the cause Friday is TheStreet's Adam Feuerstein, who says Iclusig TRx script growth (available here) "is flattening out while NRx scripts are trending down suggesting ARIA has saturated the T3151 CML patient population."

Feuerstein says institutional investors who are short the stock don't like Iclusig's chances of becoming the go-to front line treatment for CML. In other words: Don't look for Iclusig to outperform Novartis' (NVS +0.2%) Gleevec in EPIC.

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Comments (5)
  • Benyas
    , contributor
    Comments (80) | Send Message
     
    Yes, if the results for "113" fail to impress", the stock price will fall.Why do these guys get paid such big bucks? If the results are good, the price will surely rise. The number of prescriptions for Iclusig must level off because there is a limited number of people with CML.The drug has exciting prospects because it may be useful for treating other conditions and it is already approved for sale. The marketplace has a way of getting ahead of the controlled studies. It is not supposed to, but "word of mouth" can be an important factor. Yes, the price of the stock may fall, but, like the sun, it also rises. Benyas.
    13 Sep 2013, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • User 12038581
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    You missed Ferreiro's point. He thinks 113 isn't going to be impressive, hence shares will fall 10%.
    13 Sep 2013, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • User 12805071
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    It's T135I mutation, not T1351 mutation. Substitution of T for I.
    13 Sep 2013, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • Benyas
    , contributor
    Comments (80) | Send Message
     
    Yes, and he may be correct. The question is why does he think that? He can't have inside information because if he did, he wouldn't share it with us. So what public information has changed since the previous week when the stock had a very nice upward move? Ferreiro's opinion is an educated opinion, but other educated opinions a few days earlier disagreed. So, we will just have to wait and see what Ariad reports. Up to this point the judgement and enthusiasm of management has been warranted. They even had the good sense to turn ridaforolimus over to someone else. Benyas.
    14 Sep 2013, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • Benyas
    , contributor
    Comments (80) | Send Message
     
    On 9/19/2013 Ariad filed a report with the SEC stating that they made some change to their lease agreement. I just read the report. They have agreed to rent an additional 144,000 sq. ft. in their office and lab building(s) which will be completed in 2015. I interpret that move to reflect a certain degree of optimism.
    24 Sep 2013, 06:21 PM Reply Like
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