Seeking Alpha

Bernanke less certain of taper this year

  • You sound a little less certain the taper will get underway this year, says Jon Hilsenrath as part of his question to Bernanke. "There is no set plan," responds Bernanke. "We are tied to the data."
  • The quick take is Hilsenrath nailed it. Bernanke at his June press conference left pretty much no doubt the taper was coming this year and QE was going to end at some point in 2014. As his term nears an end, the chairman may not be interested in seeing another bond market blow-up.
  • Treasurys are at session highs, TLT +1% and the 10-year yield down to 2.75%. TBT -2.4%.
  • Previous from press conference.
  • Webcast.
  • Broad fixed income ETFs: AGG, BND, LAG, SCHZ, BOND, SAGG, MINC.
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Comments (16)
  • mobyss
    , contributor
    Comments (2152) | Send Message
     
    My friend's alcoholic father is less certain that he'll stop drinking this year, what with the Holidays coming up and all...

     

    Maybe next year.
    18 Sep 2013, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • bonevoyage
    , contributor
    Comments (27) | Send Message
     
    Boy, did mobyss ever hit the nail on the head! He's not called Helicopter Ben for no reason. Keeping all those bubbles inflated is quite a job.. Maybe, even, it's too big a job for one person, and Ben will have to continue on as a co-chairman. The theme certainly is: "Punish the savers and reward the speculators."
    18 Sep 2013, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • Tschurin
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    My off-the-cuff guess is that this week's taper interruptus has little to do with the idea that "chairman may not be interested in seeing another bond market blow-up." It wouldn't surprise me that when the FOMC minutes are released in five years, this week's decision is seen as something of a rebuke to Bernanke. In June the chairman wandered off the reservation with his comments about what the FOMC would do. That was quickly followed, you will remember, with the unusual spectacle of just about every FOMC member trying to reel the chairman’s comments back in. This week's vote merely confirms that the majority of FOMC members were not following his lead regarding the taper.
    18 Sep 2013, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • timbo-anti castro
    , contributor
    Comments (171) | Send Message
     
    The double speak must be hilarious in these meetings. You know the majority of the time is spent wondering how to re-phrase the same tired sentence.
    18 Sep 2013, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • Financehulligan
    , contributor
    Comments (1079) | Send Message
     
    Bernanke: `I Prefer Not to Talk About My Plans'

     

    http://bloom.bg/1aTYiZ7

     

    Is he the boss ??
    18 Sep 2013, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • june1234
    , contributor
    Comments (3064) | Send Message
     
    Which data Ben? Mtg app index sitting in same place it was 4 yrs ago, people looking at their bonds fund statements showing a 20% loss this yr or that home depot led job recovery data? That guy should get out more in real world
    18 Sep 2013, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • medzjohn
    , contributor
    Comments (298) | Send Message
     
    Data=jobs and inflation. Both too low to taper.
    18 Sep 2013, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • timbo-anti castro
    , contributor
    Comments (171) | Send Message
     
    Time for the oldie but classic and still the same party form 6 years ago:
    Hayek vs Keynes

     

    http://bit.ly/r70RZJ
    18 Sep 2013, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Enstrom
    , contributor
    Comments (313) | Send Message
     
    Thank you timbo for a refresh of old pleasures.
    18 Sep 2013, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • flemsnopes
    , contributor
    Comments (124) | Send Message
     
    It's over, right? I'm just wondering who, in his or her right mind, would want to be saddled with the legacy of overseeing the final and total destruction of the dollar? Susan Rice is already taken.
    18 Sep 2013, 06:56 PM Reply Like
  • Kathy l
    , contributor
    Comments (192) | Send Message
     
    I wonder how it would have been if the government let the banks fail in 08 like they did in 1932? Maybe we would have had to store cash in our mattress. Just a thought.....might be there yet.
    18 Sep 2013, 09:06 PM Reply Like
  • flemsnopes
    , contributor
    Comments (124) | Send Message
     
    Not all banks would have failed in 2008 had the "rescue" not taken place, only the rotten ones. Of course, now we're faced with a much bigger meltdown as we approach the next "crisis", but the upcoming epic fail will likely include confiscation of private accounts by the propped up rotten banks, 'a la Cyprus, so you probably won't need to worry about the mattress.
    19 Sep 2013, 06:16 AM Reply Like
  • Kathy l
    , contributor
    Comments (192) | Send Message
     
    Flemsnopes, Do you happen to know which banks would not have failed?
    (USB? I believe) It was also very interesting how Wells Fargo bought and snapped up Wacovia during the crisis.
    K
    19 Sep 2013, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • flemsnopes
    , contributor
    Comments (124) | Send Message
     
    Weiss Watchdog allows you to look at what Martin Weiss calls objective ratings on up to 10 banks. Wells Fargo currently has a rating of C+ with Weiss. The safest banks will probably be local or regional institutions, but the trick is knowing whom you can trust with respect to accurate information. My advice is to trust no one and have an exit plan. http://bit.ly/19hSBin
    19 Sep 2013, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • Flod
    , contributor
    Comments (92) | Send Message
     
    No tapering? .....everybody happy?. The emerging market because of the cheap dollar and the low interest rate. It might be a trend to an universal coin??
    19 Sep 2013, 06:42 AM Reply Like
  • Matthew Davis
    , contributor
    Comments (4229) | Send Message
     
    Market may go parabolic from here...get in for a short term trade, then bail when avg pe above 15. Just my opinion
    19 Sep 2013, 09:19 AM Reply Like
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